Tory MPs may have to *act* Cleverly to *stop* Cleverly

What I'm about to say will to some extent contradict my previous post, because looking at the latest Tory members' poll from ConHome, I really do struggle to see why Robert Jenrick is still favourite to win the leadership contest.  (And as of this moment he is still favourite - I've just checked.)

There's going to be a head-to-head members' ballot between just two candidates, and regardless of whether he is up against Kemi Badenoch or James Cleverly, the poll shows Jenrick losing by a wide margin.

Jenrick v Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch 53%

Robert Jenrick 33%

Jenrick v Cleverly

James Cleverly 54%

Robert Jenrick 36%

The only candidate Jenrick would beat in a head-to-head is Tom Tugendhat, which is no use to him because Tugendhat is plainly not going to be his opponent.  So precisely how is Jenrick supposed to emerge from this process as leader?  In spite of what the betting odds say, I don't think he can, unless the poll is completely wrong.

The poll does keep alive the possibility of James Cleverly being stopped, though, because Badenoch would narrowly beat him in a head-to-head - 

Badenoch v Cleverly:

Kemi Badenoch 48%

James Cleverly 42%

So logically what may now happen is that hard-right MPs might ditch Jenrick in favour of Badenoch in the remaining ballots to engineer a Badenoch v Cleverly run-off, which appears to be the only way Cleverly might yet lose.

Arguably Cleverly should currently be listed as favourite, with Badenoch as second favourite and Jenrick a distant third.

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SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER 2024: I took a prolonged break from promoting the fundraiser during the general election period, but I'll have to make some serious progress over the coming days and weeks if the blog is to remain viable.  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  Card donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE, or direct donations can be made via Paypal.  My Paypal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

The message from Britain-wide opinion polls is consistent - Labour now have less support than they did in 2019 when they were heavily defeated under Jeremy Corbyn

The latest batch of three GB-wide opinion polls all have similar fieldwork dates, and are remarkably consistent in their findings - 

Opinium (2nd-4th October 2024):

Labour 31% 

Conservatives 24%

Reform UK 20%

Liberal Democrats 11%

Greens 8%

SNP 3%

BMG (2nd-3rd October 2024):

Labour 30% 

Conservatives 25%

Reform UK 20%

Liberal Democrats 13%

Greens 7%

SNP 3%

Techne (2nd-3rd October 2024):

Labour 31% 

Conservatives 23%

Reform UK 18%

Liberal Democrats 13%

Greens 7%

SNP 2%

It's safe to assume that all of these polls have been weighted by recalled vote from the general election in July, which makes it almost certain that the drop in Labour's support is real.  The fieldwork was confined to Great Britain, ie. Northern Ireland was excluded, which means the baseline figure from July is not Labour's UK-wide vote of 34%, but their GB vote of 35%.  So their vote is down by around 4% or 5%, which is a pretty significant drop after only three months.

Yes, they do remain ahead, and on paper they would probably win an election if it was held tomorrow, but I think there's quite a compelling argument that in an underlying sense they're already behind.  It's incredibly difficult to believe that in four or five years' time they'd be able to win a general election on their current level of support, which is for example lower than the 33% they took in GB under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership in the crushing defeat of 2019.  The combined Tory/Reform UK vote ranges between 41% and 45% in these three polls, and if that somehow consolidates behind a single bloc over the coming years, even at this stage Labour look like toast.

But will it consolidate?  There was a comparable situation at the 1983 election, when the Tories won an artificially large landslide thanks to a near even split in the opposition vote between Labour and the SDP-Liberal Alliance. Most people probably assumed at the time that the division would resolve itself over the course of four or five years, but it didn't really - in 1987 Labour clawed back a little bit of support from the Alliance but nowhere near enough.  So there are no guarantees, but with Robert Jenrick remaining the clear favourite in the Tory leadership contest, and with Jenrick's platform so closely mimicking that of Reform, there does appear to be a clear route-map towards a reunited right-wing vote.  Maybe Jenrick and Farage will agree an electoral pact, or maybe there won't even be a need for that because Reform UK's current supporters will decide Jenrick is good enough to be getting on with and will swing behind the Tories.

The relevance for Scotland, of course, is that there could within a couple of years be a clear expectation of a hard-right government committed to withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights.  That could start to make the SNP's offer of independence look a lot more attractive than Labour's meaningless waffle about "the change that Scotland needs".

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SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER 2024: I took a prolonged break from promoting the fundraiser during the general election period, but I'll have to make some serious progress over the coming days and weeks if the blog is to remain viable.  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  Card donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE, or direct donations can be made via Paypal.  My Paypal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk