More analysis of the Norstat poll

Just a quick note to let you know I've written some more analysis for The National about the weekend's Norstat poll, showing the SNP ahead in Holyrood voting intentions.  You can read the article HERE.

Poll disaster for Anas Sarwar as the SNP have the advantage in first post-election survey

I've seen some dreadful mainstream media takes on polls, but the Sunday Times' write-up of their new Norstat poll, the first full-scale Scottish poll since the general election, is particularly appalling.  What obviously ought to be the headline story here is that there is absolutely no honeymoon for Labour whatsoever.  Labour won in Scotland by five percentage points last month, and I would have fully expected at least a temporary bounce putting them ten, fifteen, perhaps even twenty points ahead.  That would be the typical pattern when a party returns to power after a long period, but it simply hasn't happened.  The SNP have instead trimmed Labour's lead in Westminster voting intentions to three points.  If this as good at it gets for Labour, they have major problems.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Norstat):

Labour 32%

SNP 29%

Reform UK 12%

Conservatives 12%

Liberal Democrats 8%

Greens 5%

Of even greater concern for Labour, though, is that the SNP have a slender lead in Holyrood voting intentions.  Again, if Labour can't take the outright lead at this stage of the electoral cycle, when exactly would they be expected to do it?  What moment in time is ever going to be more favourable than this?

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 33%

Labour 30%

Conservatives 12%

Reform UK 9%

Liberal Democrats 8%

Greens 5%

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 28%

Labour 28%

Conservatives 14%

Reform UK 9%

Greens 8%

Liberal Democrats 7%

Alba 5%

Seats projection: SNP 41, Labour 40, Conservatives 18, Greens 10, Liberal Democrats 8, Reform UK 8, Alba 4

The general election result was supposed to be the springboard for a return to Labour dominance at Holyrood, but it doesn't look much like that at the moment.  I suspect the Sunday Times were bitterly disappointed and probably surprised by these numbers but decided to doggedly stick with their predetermined narrative anyway by headlining their own speculation that Labour would still be able to form a government from second place with Tory support.  Well, maybe, but this is not an election to Aberdeen City Council we're talking about here.  If Labour do a deal with the Tories, however informally, to freeze out the 'winning' party, it's going to be noticed. It would be fraught with danger for them and would be an inherently unstable situation.  Good luck to them pitching for anti-Tory votes in the future if they go down that road.

And perhaps more to the point is that there's no reason to assume that the real election result will be as 'good' as this poll suggests for Labour given that they should be at their peak of popularity right now and may be suffering from mid-term blues by the time 2026 comes around.

It looks like the results from supplementary questions are also favourable for the SNP.  John Swinney's party are more trusted than Labour on all policy areas other than the economy, and even on the latter the SNP trail by a trivial two points.  So it may be that the underlying position reflects the headline numbers.

It's rare for the seats projection of any poll to show Alba on course for seats, so the Alba leadership will understandably leap on this, but I have to once again point out that Norstat have a track record of reporting inflated Alba vote shares, which means that if Norstat show Alba on 5%, it's not unreasonable to assume that the real figure is 2% or 3%.  I'd be very surprised if any telling breakthrough has really occurred yet.

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