Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 53% (-1)
No 47% (+1)
If those figures are confirmed, it's a disaster for unionism. Clearly the anti-independence parties felt that a fightback was on, and that a combination of Margaret Ferrier, the Alex Salmond inquiry, a new Scottish Tory leader, and constant chipping away at Nicola Sturgeon's decisions on coronavirus, would have turned things around. Instead there has been no statistically significant change in a seemingly bang-up-to-date poll, and Yes still have a very handy lead. This is now the eighth poll in succession to report a pro-indy majority. If this is where we are after a relatively torrid spell, we can probably afford to be optimistic about what polling will show when unionism is once again on the back foot - as it surely will be as the end of the Brexit transition period approaches.
Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention:
SNP 50% (-1)
Conservatives 23% (-1)
Labour 18% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Scottish Parliament regional list voting intention:
SNP 41% (-2)
Conservatives 21% (n/c)
Labour 18% (+2)
Greens 11% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Seats projection (with changes from 2016): SNP 65 (+2), Conservatives 25 (-6), Labour 21 (-3), Greens 11 (+5), Liberal Democrats 7 (+2)
So an SNP overall majority, but only just. This again illustrates the folly of wasting list votes on fringe parties. I know a pro-independence majority should be all that matters, but in practice the UK government would be bound to use the SNP falling short as an excuse not to recognise the mandate for a referendum. That said, it may well be that the ComRes methodology is underestimating the SNP on the list - unless there's been a change since the firm's last poll, respondents are asked a question that may lead to the false impression that the list vote is a second preference vote.
Labour will be bitterly disappointed to still be firmly in third place after a Survation poll last month putting them in second place for Westminster voting intentions, and joint second in the Holyrood list vote.
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NEW CROWDFUNDER: Earlier today I launched a fundraiser for the next Scot Goes Pop poll on independence, which I intend to commission at some point between now and Christmas. If you'd like to donate, please click HERE.