Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 53% (-1)
No 47% (+1)
If those figures are confirmed, it's a disaster for unionism. Clearly the anti-independence parties felt that a fightback was on, and that a combination of Margaret Ferrier, the Alex Salmond inquiry, a new Scottish Tory leader, and constant chipping away at Nicola Sturgeon's decisions on coronavirus, would have turned things around. Instead there has been no statistically significant change in a seemingly bang-up-to-date poll, and Yes still have a very handy lead. This is now the eighth poll in succession to report a pro-indy majority. If this is where we are after a relatively torrid spell, we can probably afford to be optimistic about what polling will show when unionism is once again on the back foot - as it surely will be as the end of the Brexit transition period approaches.
Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention:
SNP 50% (-1)
Conservatives 23% (-1)
Labour 18% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Scottish Parliament regional list voting intention:
SNP 41% (-2)
Conservatives 21% (n/c)
Labour 18% (+2)
Greens 11% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Seats projection (with changes from 2016): SNP 65 (+2), Conservatives 25 (-6), Labour 21 (-3), Greens 11 (+5), Liberal Democrats 7 (+2)
So an SNP overall majority, but only just. This again illustrates the folly of wasting list votes on fringe parties. I know a pro-independence majority should be all that matters, but in practice the UK government would be bound to use the SNP falling short as an excuse not to recognise the mandate for a referendum. That said, it may well be that the ComRes methodology is underestimating the SNP on the list - unless there's been a change since the firm's last poll, respondents are asked a question that may lead to the false impression that the list vote is a second preference vote.
Labour will be bitterly disappointed to still be firmly in third place after a Survation poll last month putting them in second place for Westminster voting intentions, and joint second in the Holyrood list vote.
* * *
NEW CROWDFUNDER: Earlier today I launched a fundraiser for the next Scot Goes Pop poll on independence, which I intend to commission at some point between now and Christmas. If you'd like to donate, please click HERE.
Do you know if that is the survey headlined in Sunday's Scotland Herald?
ReplyDeleteNo, I think that's the Progress Scotland one (see the newer blogpost).
DeleteThe poll is very good news, thanks James.
ReplyDeleteThe ‘fringe party’ issue would go away if the SNP were not determined to press ahead with controversial policies.
I’m not arguing about the merits or otherwise of the policies, simply observing that they cost a hard to quantify amount of political capital. Some (unknown number) simply won’t vote SNP or Green because of these policies. Without these parties, these folk may well abstain.
If the controversial policies were put to one side until Independence this would be much less dangerous. Pressing on is not a neutral option and some feel strongly enough to withhold their vote from SNP or Green because of it. This vulnerability will be ruthlessly exploited by the British in the run u to May.
Douglas,
DeleteI think you are right about the bat-sh!t crazy policies switching people off the SNP.
But I also think there are those who are simply wedded, nay welded, to the voting for one of the small/new Indy parties on the list. No amount of logic or rationale will shift their belief and, if they are challenged, they simply resort to personal insult.
So a combination of SNP silliness and magical thinking on behalf of the fringe supporters risks seriously undermining the Cause at this critical juncture.
Jasmes, re "This again illustrates the folly of wasting list votes on fringe parties", if things work out as in 2016 (yes it's an assumption but if we are talking about the future there will always be assumptions) then a large part of that 41% SNP List vote will elect very few MSPs for reasons that we have gone through in the past (but for the avoidance of doubt that with that sort of constituency vote the SNP will clean up the constituency section, and as a result will start the allocation of list seats in many regions - i would probably exclude South Scotland in this - with their List vote being divide by anything from 7 to 10, making it unlikely at best or most probably impossible, to win any list seats).
ReplyDeleteSadly I suspect the time has come and gone for the development of any political institution (eg a party committed to independence that isnt the SNP) that could address this (ie start the list seat allocation with its vote divided by 1, just like the Unionist parties).
Last time out something like three quarters of a million SNP List votes elected practically no one at all. Personally I voted Green on the List (having voted SNP in the vain hope of getting rid of Jackie Baillie) and I was pleased that I had contributed to getting Ross Greer (for all his faults) than some Labour eejit.
Btw, the reference to Jackie Baillie is an example of what the SNP should be doing - cleaning up ALL the constituency seats that it can and being less obsessed with the List where they have little representation (four just now, isnt it?).
Sixteen when they actually had a majority, wasn't it? Yes, exactly. SIXTEEN. List votes win majorities. Good luck winning any election with a "don't be so obsessed with getting votes" attitude.
DeleteThe Holyrood election system was set up to ensure no 1 party would win an overall majority, coalition government was to be the way forward for Holyrood, a more consensual less confrontational parliament.
ReplyDeleteAt the 2016 HE 950,000 voted SNP with their list vote, and won a total of 4 seats, the ConLab party won 45 seats for roughly the same amount of list votes, so clearly voting SNP 1 and 2 is not working for supporters of Independence.
If the Greens have a strong commitment to an IndyRef2 in their Manifesto, then a SNP 1 Green 2 vote at next years HE would IMO increase the majority for Independence, and reduce the Union List MSPs, a win-win situation.