As I've mentioned before, I have a winning track record on political betting, albeit based on a very small number of bets over the years...
* A few months before the 2010 general election, I was bullied (all right, badgered) into a supposed mug's bet by a certain "international thriller writer" on Stormfront Lite. He was convinced the Conservatives would win an overall majority, I begged to differ. I won. (He then sent me his latest novel in lieu of my winnings.)
* A couple of years before the 2014 indyref, I was bullied (all right, badgered) by another Stormfront Lite poster into another three "unwinnable" bets - a) that Yes would win, b) that Yes would not lose by more than a 15% margin, and c) that 16 and 17 year olds (or "children" as someone sneered) would have the right to vote. I won two of the three, and made a net profit.
* At some point prior to the 2015 general election, I made a final private bet with a Stormfront Lite poster (Antifrank, no less), although there wasn't any bullying involved this time. He thought Labour would gain more seats from the Scottish Lib Dems than the SNP would, and I took the opposite view. I won.
* On the day of the 2016 EU referendum, although I still thought Remain were the most likely winners, I placed a bet on Leave because it seemed to me the odds were ludicrously out of kilter with opinion polls that were still very tight. In retrospect people's reasons for being so certain of a Remain victory were extremely circular - one group of people was convinced because another group of people was convinced. There were always dark murmerings about private polls, but the reality is those would have been showing much the same as the public polls.
* Six months later at the US presidential election, I toyed with a bet on Donald Trump on a similar basis to my Leave bet. In the end I held off until well after the polls closed, but remarkably, even after it started to become clear that things were going Trump's way, Hillary Clinton remained the clear favourite and it was possible to get extremely good value odds on Trump. I've noticed that when surprise election results occur, there often seems to be a 'lag' effect on the betting markets. It's as if punters can't quite accept what they're seeing with their own eyes. The same thing happened in the EU referendum, and also when Bernie Sanders won Michigan.
* On the day of the run-off for the 2017 French presidential election, I spotted an opportunity for a value bet on Macron securing between 65% and 70% of the vote. The provisional exit poll figures suggested he could go very close to 65%, yet the odds on that outcome remained very steep. As soon as the official exit poll predicted he'd be slightly above 65%, I cashed out and took a partial profit straight away to be on the safe side (although obviously with hindsight I wish I hadn't).
* In this year's Polish presidential election, I placed a bet against Andrzej Duda, who was mysteriously the strong odds-on favourite in spite of being more or less level in the polls. I lost, but I'm still convinced it made perfect sense as a value bet.
So, armed with that track record, let me point out something that should be blindingly obvious - there is overwhelming evidence that Joe Biden is heading for a convincing victory next month, and yet the odds on the betting exchanges imply that Trump still has a roughly 1 in 3 chance of winning. It just doesn't add up. I'm not saying that a bet on Biden is 'free money', there's still an element of risk, but for Trump to win something pretty improbable would have to happen - either there would have to be a systemic polling error of a magnitude much greater than was seen in 2016, or a random event would have to occur to totally change the trajectory of the campaign, and it would have to be a dramatic enough event to overcome the substantial lead Biden presumably already has as a result of early votes that cannot now be changed.
The bottom line - if you don't mind your money being tied up for a couple of weeks, a bet on Biden (or perhaps a lay bet against Trump for extra security) is just about the most clear-cut value bet you'll ever see.
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