There will be several polls published tonight, but the one you're about to see may well be the most important of the lot, because the fieldwork was conducted at lightning speed after last night's so-called "debate" between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. Some commentators felt that the programme was relatively positive for May, but if these numbers are right it appears that the opposite is true. Perhaps looking an underpaid nurse in the eye and using the fatuous phrase "magic money tree" isn't such a guaranteed vote-grabber after all.
GB-wide voting intentions (Survation, online fieldwork) :
Conservatives 40% (-6)
Labour 39% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 8% (n/c)
UKIP 5% (+2)
SNP 4% (n/c)
Scottish subsample : SNP: 44%, Labour 28%, Conservatives 21%, Liberal Democrats 6%, UKIP 2%
Obviously an individual Scottish subsample can't be regarded as remotely reliable, but nevertheless it's heartening to see a decent SNP lead, because we know from the experience of 2010 that high-profile debates excluding the SNP can have an extremely damaging effect.
UPDATE : Two other polls are more favourable for the Tories, although the fieldwork for both is not quite so recent. ORB has the Tory lead increasing from 6% to 9%, while ICM have the lead only falling from 12% to 11% (although it should be noted that's still the smallest gap ICM have reported at any time during the campaign).
UPDATE II : The YouGov poll (which may be the final GB-wide poll of the evening) gives the Tories a lead of 4%, which suggests the state of play has remained very stable for several days. However, it looks like the fieldwork either wholly or mostly preceded last night's "debate". So the million dollar question for this evening : is Survation simply a random outlier, or is its more recent fieldwork highly significant? Could it be picking up a Cleggasm-type effect?
The average Tory lead in tonight's polls is 7.2% - probably not quite hung parliament territory, but not too far away from it.
UPDATE III : ICM's Scottish subsample is : SNP 41%, Conservatives 29%, Labour 23%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Greens 2%.