Friday, March 12, 2021
The choice in May is simple: either keep the flame of independence burning, or extinguish it completely until 2026
Thursday, March 11, 2021
Anti-independence parties in disarray as YouGov poll suggests SNP are on course for huuuuuge overall majority
Thanks to Scottish Skier for pointing out to me that there's a second Scottish poll out today, this time from YouGov - and it's much, much better than the one from ComRes. Not only does it suggest that the SNP are still on course to get their overall majority back, it also suggests that majority could be extremely large.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions (YouGov, 4th-8th March 2021):
Savanta ComRes poll: Pro-independence parties on course for 57% of the seats in the Scottish Parliament
Wednesday, March 10, 2021
The time to decide how we're going to win this election for Scotland is now - because by hook or by crook, we simply have to win it
Tuesday, March 9, 2021
Savanta ComRes poll finds opinion on independence almost evenly split - and the public want an independence referendum within the next five years
POLL: Has the #Matchettgate fake poll scandal shaken your faith in newspapers and broadcasters as reliable sources?— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 8, 2021
So I've been watching the Harry & Meghan thing on the +1 channel, and I thought to myself "they're both so charismatic and convincing, this is the British establishment's worst nightmare".— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 8, 2021
And then I thought "God, how the Royals must wish they had a stern Nicholas Witchell to rebut the beastly accusations in real time, on a split screen". And then I burst into uncontrollable laughter.— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 8, 2021
Monday, March 8, 2021
It's official: Savanta ComRes confirm that the Scotland on Sunday "poll" should not be treated as a proper independence poll. Time for (another) correction and apology from Sarah Smith and the BBC.
Savanta ComRes have published the datasets from the now-notorious #Matchettgate "poll", published in the Scotland on Sunday and jubilantly recited by the legendarily "impartial" Sarah Smith on the Marr show. (In fairness Sophy Ridge and Sky were even worse than the Beeb - they apparently put the numbers up on a big screen!) There's a very interesting explanatory note provided on the ComRes website -
"The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote and should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention. The voting intention was asked to give The Scotsman an indication as to current levels of Yes/No support."
You can hardly get more direct and explicit than that. This should not be treated as a proper independence poll and anyone who was initially duped - and that includes myself - should correct the record. I've already done so, and I hope we can now look forward to the same from the BBC and Sky. It's particularly important that the BBC issue a prominent correction, because they've been telling us for years that they have a policy of not reporting on voting intention polls, and have used that as an excuse for not keeping viewers and listeners updated on the recent run of Yes-majority polls. If that policy was casually tossed out of the window because a reporter couldn't contain her excitement at No being back in the lead, and that poll then turns out to be bogus...well, something has self-evidently gone very badly wrong, and it needs to be put right.
Incidentally, this development also puts beyond dispute the observation I made yesterday. Right now, the last twenty-six legitimate polls have all shown Yes on 50% or higher, after Don't Knows are stripped out. That may not be the case within a few short hours, because apparently more polls are due tonight. But as of this moment, the remarkable run of Yes success continues.
* * *
I also took a quick look at the Panelbase website to see if the datasets from the Sunday Times poll are out yet, but they're not. However, what I found instead were datasets for a poll commissioned in January by an organisation called 'Scotland Unhyphenated'. They may well have been there for several weeks. This solves the mystery of the unionist propaganda poll with the insanely biased questions that I blogged about at the time. The results are, to be honest, a mixed bag - with such leading questions it was almost inevitable that they'd at least get some 'hits'. However, rather amusingly, there are two questions in particular that backfired on the client horrendously...
Sunday, March 7, 2021
#Matchettgate: The story of how unionist newspaper Scotland on Sunday attempted to deceive the nation with a fake poll
An extraordinary weekend when the media misled the public about the polls - the ComRes poll wasn't real, and the Panelbase poll showed 50-50, not a No lead: the TWENTY-SIXTH consecutive poll to show Yes on 50% or higher
A very good point: while Yes were ahead, the BBC's references to polling news were, shall we say, distinctly rationed. Now all of a sudden THE FLOODGATES HAVE OPENED. What could possibly have caused this change of policy?https://t.co/MT82JoEUHs— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 7, 2021
Remember Nick Eardley explaining the BBC’s excuse for not talking about Scottish independence leading the polls was it was a single poll and there was not yet a pattern to report.— Phantom Power (@PhantomPower14) March 7, 2021
This unweighted ComRes poll is a real puzzle. If it was an online poll, presumably the weighting calculation shouldn't have taken long at all. But even if lack of time was the issue, that means it was an incomplete poll and Scotland on Sunday shouldn't have published it.— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 7, 2021
There have been a couple of occasions when I commissioned polls and was given a provisional indication of how the Yes/No figures were shaping up, but I would never have dreamed of publishing those numbers. I hope that isn't what Scotland on Sunday did - that would be amateurish.— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 7, 2021