Monday, December 14, 2009

YouGov subsample : Tories in rare second place

In an abrupt break with the seemingly endless sequence of dismal poll findings for the Scottish Tories, the latest YouGov subsample places them at the giddy heights of 26%, marginally edging the SNP out for second place. Given the consistency of the recent low figures for the party, this looks very much like a statistical quirk thrown up by the inherently huge margin of error in subsamples (although of course you never know). There was a similar quirk earlier in the year, when a YouGov subsample had the Tories holding the joint lead in Scotland. Here are the full figures -

Labour 37% (+3)
Conservatives 26% (+7)
SNP 24% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-11)
Others 5% (-)

It's worth noting that, in spite of the SNP slipping into third place, the gap between themselves and Labour is - once again - lower than that shown by the last full-scale Scottish YouGov poll.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

ComRes subsample : Labour edge back into lead

After the contrasting Labour leads in the recent Angus Reid and Populus subsamples, tonight's ComRes figures come in somewhere between the two. A Labour lead of six is also in the midway range between the two recent completely contradictory full-scale Scottish polls from YouGov (15-point Labour lead for Westminster) and Ipsos-Mori (2-point SNP lead for Westminster). Here are the full figures from ComRes -

Labour 32% (+4)
SNP 26% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 22% (+5)
Conservatives 17% (-)
Others 3% (-3)

Also of note is the unusually high showing for the Liberal Democrats, and - at the risk of sounding like a broken record - yet another dismal showing for the Scottish Tories.