Friday, January 10, 2025

THE ALBA FILES, Part 1: 'A McCarthyite atmosphere', 'trial by vagueness', 'the ugly lust for revenge of an authoritarian leadership' - read the full text of the defence document I submitted prior to my Alba disciplinary hearing in December

Welcome to a new series of articles on Scot Goes Pop entitled 'THE ALBA FILES' (before anyone panics, it's only a name).  Now that I'm irrevocably out of Alba and no longer owe any loyalty to the party, I'm going to try to help Alba members make up their own minds about the state of their own party by putting as much information as realistically possible into the public domain.  Baby steps to begin with - I'm going to start with the full text of my own defence document submitted in advance of my "disciplinary" hearing in early December.  For privacy reasons, I've made one very small alteration to the text - I've switched to using the name "Colin Alexander", because his real name (which I used in the submitted document) is not in the public domain as far as I know.  "Colin Alexander" was a pseudonym he used in the guest post he wrote for the late Iain Lawson's blog.  As it turned out, being involved in guest posts for the Iain Lawson blog was just about the most dangerous activity for Alba members - the suspension/expulsion rate as a result of doing so was exceptionally high.

WRITTEN SUBMISSION IN RESPONSE TO DISCIPLINARY REFERRAL 

My name is James Kelly and I have been a paid-up member of the Alba Party since it was created in the spring of 2021, almost four years ago now.  My monthly subscription fee has continued to be regularly deducted from my bank account, even though I have been arbitrarily suspended from the party at the whim of the General Secretary for the last two months, and denied absolutely all of the rights of membership that the fee is supposed to be in exchange for.  I cannot even access the party website.  That state of affairs is self-evidently outrageous and indefensible.

In happier days, I was an elected member of this party's National Executive Committee between September 2021 and October 2022, during which time I also served on the Finance & Audit Committee.  I was an elected member of the Appeals Committee between February 2023 and January 2024.  As far as I am aware, I am still to this day a member of the Disciplinary Committee and the Finance & Audit Committee, having been elected to those bodies in January of this year, although obviously that has been interrupted by Mr McEleny's decision to arbitrarily suspend my party membership.  I was also elected in January to the Constitution Review Group (CRG), although several weeks before my party membership was suspended, I was informed out of the blue by Mr McEleny that the NEC had removed me from that elected position - an unconstitutional decision that the NEC quite simply had no power to take.  Additionally, I was elected as the Organiser of North Lanarkshire LACU earlier this year.

Although I have strong suspicions about the real reasons for the remarkably casual decision to suspend me and refer me to the Disciplinary Committee (those suspicions relate to the leadership's determination to snuff out any serious talk of internal democratisation of the party, and also to an attempt by at least two well-connected individuals to abuse the disciplinary machinery as a way of furthering their campaign of bullying against me), I am none the wiser as to the 'official' reasons.  Other members of the Disciplinary Committee must be equally baffled - unless of course they have been supplied with information that has been withheld from me, in which case due process would dictate that they will be compelled to completely set aside that information in considering the complaint.  But assuming that they only possess the same document that I was sent, described variously as the "disciplinary report" or the "disciplinary referral", they like me will have next to no information on Mr McEleny's official reasons for thinking I should actually be facing this hearing.  The document is hopelessly deficient and defective in numerous respects - 

1) It alleges that I have breached the "social media policy" and specifically references a section of that policy about "being abusive", and yet not a single social media post is linked to or referred to.  There is not even the vaguest hint of what the content of the relevant social media posts was, or on what grounds Mr McEleny formed his alleged belief that they were "abusive".  Given that my Twitter profile states that I have posted more than 17,900 tweets since I joined the site in early 2009, Mr McEleny appears to be inviting members of the committee to play guessing games about what on earth he might be referring to, and even more disgracefully he appears to be inviting me to play guessing games in formulating my defence.  He is trying to set me a task he knows to be utterly impossible.  Realistically, this means that he is not being honest about having found abusive social media posts (if he had done, he would undoubtedly have quoted them or linked to them - it would have been the work of seconds), and is hoping committee members may fill in the gaps for him by trawling through my 17,900 tweets and "getting lucky" with one or two.  I am extremely confident that if they attempt to go down that road, they will not "get lucky", because to the very best of my recollection I have *never* been abusive on social media.  However, let me be clear - if by any chance I am ambushed at the hearing with questions about specific tweets that were not brought to my attention at any point before the hearing starts, I will refuse to engage with those questions, and quite rightly so.  Due process requires me to be fully informed of what I am actually accused of in advance so I can put together a proper and considered defence.  The committee will have no business upholding a complaint based on allegations that were not mentioned to me until a last second ambush.

 2) In contrast to the complete absence of information about which social media posts are being referred to, the document does link in an "update" to five specific blogposts.  However, the only clue as to the relevance of mentioning these blogposts is the observation that "Mr Kelly took to...his blog to discuss internal party business".  None of the four sections of the Code of Conduct which have allegedly been breached even refer to (let alone forbid) the discussing of internal party business, so there is no clue whatsoever as to what part of the content of the blogposts Mr McEleny thinks are breaches, or in what way he is alleging they are breaches.  Once again, Mr McEleny is inviting committee members to play guessing games or to fill in the gaps for him, and once again I must point out that due process means that the committee simply cannot proceed in that way.  If I am suddenly ambushed with more specific allegations on the night of the hearing, I will refuse to engage, and the committee will have no right (or not if due process is applied) to uphold a complaint on the basis of a last-second infusion of specificity.

3) The narrative explanation of how the complaint came about begins with some members of the Constitution Review Group supposedly alleging that my April blogpost 'The case against a small political party treating its own members as the enemy' constituted a "breach of trust" and "undermined the work of the CRG".  But the narrative then swiftly moves on to the vaguer allegations about aspects of my conduct that supposedly occurred much later.  It is far from clear whether the present disciplinary referral relates only to the later vague allegations, or whether the "breach of trust" allegation also forms part of the case against me.  It is admittedly hard to see how it can do, because none of the four sections of the Code of Conduct alleged to have been breached mention anything at all about breaches of trust or confidentiality.  Nevertheless, the fact that I have been left unsure as to what is and what is not part of the present case against me is plainly an absurd situation.

4) If I am forced to err on the side of caution by assuming that the "breach of trust" allegation may form part of the current case against me, there is yet again no information provided to enable the committee to proceed with any meaningful deliberations on that issue or to enable me to put forward a meaningful defence.  It's extraordinary that I have to point this out, but Mr McEleny is alleging that I have disclosed confidential information, but hasn't actually bothered to specify what that confidential information is.  He does link to the blogpost in which the breach of confidentiality is alleged to have taken place, but that is of very little help, because the blogpost makes clear at the outset that I am bound by confidentiality rules and will therefore not be discussing the work of the CRG.  Nowhere in the blogpost do I make any statements about what was discussed at meetings of the CRG, or what decisions were reached at those meetings.  So the only possibility left is that Mr McEleny is alleging that I revealed confidential information by some extremely indirect means, but if that's the case the onus is on him to explain in what form I did that, what that information was, and what evidence he has that the information ever existed in the first place and was covered by confidentiality rules.  Does it for example appear in minutes of meetings of the CRG?  If so, why didn't he provide the relevant quotes from those minutes?  Does it feature in secret recordings of meetings that Mr McEleny can supply?  That is the kind of bar he would have to clear if he really wants to advance the "breach of trust" argument, but he has not even come close to clearing it.  It is frankly nothing short of astounding that he hasn't even bothered to mention what secret information the individuals who made the initial complaint felt I had disclosed.  Mr McEleny has literally provided zero supporting evidence to support the allegation of a breach of trust, and in those circumstances I must respectfully point out to committee members that they literally have no choice but to dismiss that allegation.  If they do not, they will have abandoned any semblance of due process and will have brought Alba's disciplinary procedures into disrepute.  And again, if the allegations suddenly and magically become more specific once the hearing is actually underway, that will make no difference, because I will not have had the proper opportunity to submit a considered defence.

5) The four sections of the Code of Conduct allegedly breached refer to "injuring the party" or members of the party.  Mr McEleny has wholly failed to explain in what way he believes I have caused "injury".  They refer to an expectation that Alba members will conduct themselves to "high standards of decency".  Mr McEleny has wholly failed to explain in what way he believes I have fallen short of high standards of decency.  They refer to a requirement that Alba members should use social media "responsibly".  Mr McEleny has wholly failed to explain in what way he believes I have used social media "irresponsibly".

Mr McEleny is essentially inviting the Disciplinary Committee to conduct a "trial by vagueness" and to overlook the almost total lack of detail and supporting evidence, simply because of a nod and a wink from him and the rest of the leadership (perhaps considerably more than a nod and a wink) that they want the complaint upheld and will be displeased with committee members if it is not.  The committee should tell Mr McEleny in no uncertain terms that they refuse to play that game.  Unfortunately, though, as a member of the Disciplinary Committee myself, I know as well as any other committee member that 2024 has seen extraordinarily severe punishments meted out for minor infractions or even in cases where there has been no discernible wrongdoing whatsoever.  In the last few months, there have been at least two outright expulsions from Alba and at least one suspension of six months.  That contrasts with Alex Salmond's twenty years as leader of the SNP in which by all accounts only one expulsion occurred, and that was for the extremely serious reason of the individual in question being found to have committed decades of domestic violence and abuse.  To put it mildly, that is not a favourable comparison for the Alba Party, and is not one that we as members of the Disciplinary Committee can take any pride in.  

A McCarthyite atmosphere has taken grip of the committee under its present composition, and to some extent that has been fostered by the ongoing attitude of Mr McEleny himself.  At the start of this year, he explicitly demanded that the committee expel Colin Alexander from the party because of an utterly harmless Twitter joke at the expense of Mr McEleny (touchy, much?), and because Mr Alexander had written a blogpost raising legitimate concerns about the conduct of Alba's internal elections in autumn 2023.  Extraordinarily, the committee caved in to Mr McEleny's wholly inappropriate demand and expelled Mr Alexander.  Mr McEleny then demanded that punitive action be taken against the brave whistleblower Denise Somerville, who had uncovered potential evidence of irregularities in the same internal elections.  Shamefully, the committee caved in to Mr McEleny's outrageous demand and suspended Ms Somerville for six months, without even backdating that penalty to take into account the period of arbitrary suspension she had already suffered at Mr McEleny's whim.  And then Mr McEleny demanded punitive action against Geoff Bush for giving an entirely inoffensive interview to The National about the need for cooperation and ecumenicism between pro-independence parties.  To my absolute astonishment, the convener of the committee "spontaneously" announced midway during the hearing, after a painfully long pause, that he thought Mr Bush should be expelled from the party.  Members of the committee may recall that my shock at hearing the word "expulsion" was both immediate and audible.  And yet mysteriously the majority of the committee instantly fell into line with the convener's wish, in spite of the fact that none of them seemed to be able to articulate why they were doing so.  A cynic might almost wonder if some sort of informal 'briefing' had occurred before the meeting.

The pattern is clear: the disciplinary procedure is not being used in the proper manner to tackle genuine wrongdoing, but is instead being cynically abused to crack down on legitimate dissent against the leadership and individuals close to the leadership.  This state of affairs need not have been allowed to develop if members of the Disciplinary Committee had actually fulfilled their roles conscientiously, but instead the leadership seem to have some sort of improper hold over some (not all) of them.  This dismal pattern is continuing in my own case, where the leadership's underlying aim seems to be to take extreme revenge against me because I took a prolonged stand in favour of internal democratisation of the party, and publicly called into question whether the repeated boasts that Alba in its current form is a "member-led party" really stack up.  That is, frankly, a point that Alba members have every right to ponder and debate.  I suspect there's also a strong element of Ms Shannon Donoghue and her partner Mr Chris Cullen seeking revenge against me for more personal reasons, because I stood up to their repeated bullying attempts at the in-person CRG meetings, and subsequently on Twitter.

At the conclusion of one of the disciplinary hearings earlier this year, the committee convener tried to wrap things up with a little monologue, insisting we all had to remember that whatever disagreements might occur between us during meetings, we were all united by being independence supporters and that was the really important thing.  As I said to him at the time, those words rang extremely hollow, because he had only just cruelly trampled all over decent independence supporters by expelling or suspending them, for no good reason other than to satisfy the ugly lust for revenge of an authoritarian leadership. I trust the convener will have enough sense of shame to refrain from launching into a similar monologue if he plays any part in upholding the farcically vague complaint against me, one that is so insubstantial that it practically ceases to exist the more you look at it.

But my even fonder hope is that the scenario will not even arise, because the committee will at long last take a stand against the prolonged pattern of injustice by refusing to uphold this latest bogus and maliciously-motivated complaint.  That way Alba might belatedly start to become a worthy successor to the Salmond-era SNP, in which all decent independence supporters were welcome, in which nobody was expelled without exceptionally good cause, and in which all members could express their views freely without constant fear of arbitrary punishment.  

In closing, I want to make some general observations about Alba's social media policy, which is an inspiring document due to its fearless commitment to freedom of speech - 

"We want debate and discussion to flourish on our channels and will encourage feedback wherever appropriate"

That could not be further removed from Christina Hendry's and Chris Cullen's oft-rehearsed conception of Alba as a sort of secret society in which members have an absolute duty to remain silent about their own views at all times, except possibly behind closed doors (but even there conditions would apply).  I must be honest here and say I much prefer the social media policy's more liberal vision of what Alba is, and I'm relieved that's the one that has been given constitutional force.  But it's little wonder that there's so much puzzlement and consternation in Alba's ranks that Mr McEleny and the Disciplinary Committee have repeatedly breached both the spirit and the letter of the social media policy by taking extreme steps, up to and including expulsion, to prevent members from exercising their right to engage in "flourishing debate and discussion". 

Mr McEleny's reply might be that the social media policy to some extent contradicts itself by also giving examples of how freedom of speech might in some cases be limited.  But that being the case, the devil is obviously in the interpretation.  The simplest way to judge how the social media policy is being interpreted in practice, and where the true balance lies between freedom of speech and any restrictions, is to look at the example set by leading members of the party.  Here are some tweets posted by very senior Alba members in recent months - 

Zulfikar Sheikh, 3rd October 2024: "Zionist J talks such garbage."

(Note: "J" is a reference to the journalist Julia Hartley-Brewer.)

Zulfikar Sheikh, 8th September 2024: "It all started when her wee gang couldn't get their way."

(Note: The 'her' referred to is Denise Findlay, who was the elected Organisation Convener of the Alba Party less than a year prior to Mr Sheikh posting his tweet.  The 'wee gang' seemingly refers to other prominent and highly respected former members of our party.)

Zulfikar Sheikh, 11th September 2024: "Truth is coming out now for the wee gang of malcontents...they were obviously planning all along, totally disgraceful."

Zulfikar Sheikh, 11th September 2024: "When all fails this is the special language they adopt...ignore the wee gang."

Zulfikar Sheikh, 11th September 2024: "It's always the usual suspects of the wee gang of malcontents.  They obviously have too much free time."

Zulfikar Sheikh, 30th October 2024: "This man has no shame, no compassion for the man that he talks about, without Alex, Swinney & his wee gang would be nobody's.  We haven't forgotten what you & your pals try to do to him, just will be done very very soon."

Chris McEleny, 21st November 2024: "Define irony: Mhairi Black, who spent 10 years at Westminster with her snout in the Kit Kat trough"

Chris McEleny, 14th November 2024: "How creepy.  Some wee social media weirdo at the Scottish Parliament actually zooms in on women's footwear to brief the press."

Shannon Donoghue, 19th May 2024: "No it's not wrong, and if I'm really honest, I'm sick of the wee victim act.  I've seen Eva first hand at conferences with the wee gang.  She was privy to info being on NEC that Grangemouth was a key seat for them.  The only one lacking unity is her."

(Note: "Eva" is a reference to Eva Comrie, who was our party's elected Equalities Convener just weeks before Ms Donoghue posted her tweet.)

Shannon Donoghue, 6th July 2024: "You, is the simple answer. You and the wee gangs attempt to tarnish the party. You do more damage to Indy than good. Disgraceful."

(Note: The above was a *direct reply* to Denise Findlay, our party's former elected Organisation Convener.)

Shannon Donoghue, 6th July 2024: "James Kelly really tweeting about self-awareness. The gift that keeps on giving."

Yvonne Ridley, 10th September 2024: "A "wee gang of malcontents" that's one way of describing a treacherous bunch of mean girls & frit blokes whose ambitions far outweighed their abilities. You're all fighting like ferrets in a sack right now, threatening to sue each other over an App that involves dodgy dealings & Israeli technology."

Yvonne Ridley, 10th September 2024: "The Aye App - @gracebrod1e @Scotpol1314 @mickbrick54 @geoffbush they all invested in it. I think @LeanneTervit Schemes for Indy was supposed to be the first beneficiary but she reckons she was shafted. Apart from sleepless nights over treachery, I lost nothing."

Yvonne Ridley also notoriously posted a shameful tweet in early 2023 claiming that a vote for the SNP was a vote for Jimmy Savile - admittedly she later seemed to delete it, but she certainly didn't face any disciplinary action for it.

All of the above tweets would technically, on a literal reading, fall foul of the line in the social media policy about the "targeting of individuals", and I must admit none of the tweets are remotely to my own taste.  The kind of nasty language these people have used is just not my cup of tea, and I personally do take pride in maintaining a much higher standard of respectful behaviour on social media than that of Ms Ridley, Ms Donoghue, Mr McEleny and Mr Sheikh.  That said, I think Alba have been extremely wise in using a minimalist interpretation of the "abusive behaviour"/"targeting of individuals" language, thus allowing these four senior people to be deemed to have stayed within the strictures of the social media policy.  It's entirely sensible that Alba's interpretation of the policy has given far greater weight to the provision guaranteeing freedom of speech.  However, that does mean that Mr McEleny's risible attempts to apply a completely different standard to lowlier figures such as myself must by definition be doomed to failure.

We also mustn't lose sight of the even more colourful example of social media behaviour that has been set by Mr Stuart Campbell, who is technically not an Alba member, but is the celebrated author of the party's very own "Wee Alba Book" and is regarded by many as the party's de facto spiritual godfather.  The Alba leadership have regularly praised him to the skies as a moral lodestar and shining example to us all, describing him on one memorable occasion without any apparent sense of irony as a "man of unimpeachable integrity".  So let's take a quick look at Mr Campbell's standard of behaviour on social media, which it's safe to assume the Alba leadership must regard as effortlessly consistent with the party's social media policy.  

Stuart Campbell, 16th November 2024: "I don't keep having to delete my tweets because I've made an absolute c*nt of myself like Narinder does."

Stuart Campbell, 18th November 2024: "F*ck off, *unt."

Stuart Campbell, 11th November 2024: "I've repeatedly said it's a genocide. He's a liar as well as a stupid c*nt."

Stuart Campbell, 15th October 2024: "He admitted no such thing, ever, you repellent cowardly scumbag c*nt."

Stuart Campbell, 13th October 2024: "You know f*ck-all about him, so maybe YOU should stop being a c*nt and shut up."

Ah.  OK.  If this kind of thing is Mr McEleny's idea of excellence on social media (and it really does appear to be), then his claim that I have fallen short of the appropriate standards is going to be just a trifle tough to maintain with a straight face.  Perhaps he thinks I just don't use the C-word often enough - is that it?!

(submitted 25th November 2024)

Reform UK hits an all-time high vote share with yet another polling firm - this time More In Common

I said yesterday that we shouldn't necessarily expect to see Reform UK in the outright lead in most GB-wide polls, at least in the immediate future, and these new More In Common numbers demonstrate why.  At 22%, Reform UK have hit their all-time high with More In Common - they had been on 21% on a couple of previous occasions, but never 22%.  And yet this new high watermark still has them in third place, because More In Common's 'house effects' consistently leave Reform with a slightly lower vote share than they have with polling firms that have shown them on the brink of taking the lead.

GB-wide voting intentions (More In Common, 6th-8th January 2025):

Conservatives 26% (-)
Labour 26% (-)
Reform UK 22% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-1)
Greens 7% (-1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

For all parties other than Reform, the poll is unremarkable.  Labour have been lower than 26% in a previous More In Common poll, and they've also been behind the Tories or level with the Tories in multiple previous polls from the firm, so a 26-26 tie is very much within the recent norm.  However, it's perhaps worth noting in passing how common it's become in recent weeks and months for polling firms to show the SNP on 3% of the GB-wide vote.  In the run-up to the general election, 2% was the most common figure. 

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Thursday, January 9, 2025

As expected, Alba's kangaroo court has upheld my expulsion - so now that I no longer owe any loyalty to the party and can at last speak freely, it's time to consider where it all went so wrong for Alba

As this process has been a blatant stitch-up from beginning to end, it won't surprise anyone to hear that my appeal against expulsion has been rejected, and that the Alba Party is now permanently and irrevocably part of my past.  As I've said all along, I do not intend to be left politically homeless, and I will hopefully be able to announce my new political home in the very near future.

It scarcely seems possible, but if anything my treatment at the hands of the Appeals Committee last night was even more contemptuous than my treatment by the Disciplinary Committee on 5th December.  The Disciplinary Committee allowed me to attend the hearing for just twelve minutes, but I think last night it was more like nine or ten minutes before I was told to leave.  There's a very straightforward reason for that: it was absolutely blindingly obvious that the leadership loyalists on both committees were under strict instructions to ask me no questions at all, presumably to avoid giving me any ammunition.  I'm not letting my imagination run away with me there - when I was a member of the Disciplinary Committee, I sat through enough meetings with Christina Hendry to know that she had any number of menacing and inappropriate questions to ask Geoff Bush (for example) when she was in the middle of expelling him for no good reason, but mysteriously she went all bashful in my case and didn't say a single word until after I left the meeting.  Jackie Reid and Geraldine Harron took the same approach, as did John Caddis and a couple of others last night.

After the sheep incident yesterday I found myself unexpectedly short of time, so I spent two hours under considerable stress writing a little speech.  You really do come away feeling you've been treated like dirt when you go to all that trouble, and then read out the speech knowing full well that only one person is actually listening to you, and all the others are just sitting there with bored expressions waiting to follow the instructions they've been given. The whole outcome was 100% predetermined months ago, just as Yvonne Ridley boasted was the case long before I was even suspended.

Incidentally, the meeting yesterday was almost postponed at the last minute.  Corri Wilson wrote to me at around 5pm saying that the convener of the Appeals Committee wasn't available, and giving me a choice of either postponing or going ahead with a temporary chair appointed by the NEC.  I chose the latter option because McEleny has been mucking me around for months on end, and I wanted the process over with once and for all.  But several people I spoke to felt I was making the wrong decision and that I was "walking into a Tasmina / Corri trap". They felt it was a stunt to replace a convener who is known to be relatively fair-minded with a temporary chair from within the clique that was hellbent on expelling me.  I didn't know who that person would be until the meeting actually started, but it turned out to be Debbie Ewen.  When I mentioned that name after the meeting was over, the reaction was: "Sorry James, but you're toast.  Debbie takes her orders direct from the Corri Nostra."  Make of that what you will, but my own sense of the arithmetic is that I would have lost the vote no matter who the chair had been.  From the body language, three people were unremittingly hostile, and I would imagine I lost the vote 3-1, or possibly 4-1 if Ewen herself took part.

When I and others joined Alba in 2021, many people taunted us about how we were going to live to regret it.  I was extremely confident that wasn't true, and that even if Alba ultimately failed I would have no regrets about joining, because the party had been set up for the right reasons and with the very best of intentions.  With the benefit of hindsight, I'd have to concede I was completely wrong about that.  If I'd had any idea of the authoritarian freak show I was walking into, or of the toxic culture of bullying that I would be caught up in, I'd never have touched Alba with a bargepole. Having realised I'd made that mistake (and I'd certainly fully woken up to the situation by around a year ago), I felt the best thing to do was work from within to try to get the party onto the right track.  You might remember that I wrote a blogpost saying it's a bad idea to invoke Katy Perry by constantly changing political parties "like a girl changes clothes".  But now that the decision has been taken for me, it's something of a relief, and I'm quite happy to hold my hands up and admit that it was a big, big mistake to join Alba.  I sincerely apologise to anyone who was influenced by me and ended up joining Alba themselves, and I hope anyone in that situation understands that I was genuinely unaware of the true nature of the party.

Essentially Alba is a private club run for the exclusive convenience of a few dozen people belonging to a few closely connected families and friends.  It's tarted up to look like a party with internal democratic structures accessible to all members, but that's just window dressing.  If anyone from outside the ruling elite tries to use the democratic structures to push for change, they'll hit a brick wall, and if they push too hard, they'll swiftly find themselves suspended or expelled.  

How did such a grotesque situation come about?  In the months leading up to Alba's creation, Alex Salmond phoned me a number of times.  He was obviously courting the pro-indy New Media in case he wanted to get a new party off the ground quickly (although he clearly decided subsequently that the New Media was of no value to him after all, because Alba ended up alienating almost all of the main bloggers apart from Wings - and even Wings generally tells readers to vote unionist rather than Alba).  However in none of those phone calls did Mr Salmond actually share his plans, and I didn't feel it was my place to ask him to.  But luckily I was in touch with someone who did know his thinking.  

It was suggested to me at one point that he intended to model the new party after the Brexit Party, ie. with "registered supporters" rather than members to ensure he retained total control.  I assumed that plan had been ditched when I saw the Alba constitution was on paper a little more democratic than the SNP's, but in retrospect the registered supporters model is exactly what Alba ended up with - it's just that those people were called "members" and there was a big pretence that they had a say in how the party was run.  The best evidence that it was a pretence is the blatant rigging of the October 2023 internal elections. When the "wrong" people won, Mr Salmond simply voided the results (which he had no constitutional power to do) and ordered the elections to be re-run, and then put intense and wholly inappropriate pressure on the "wrong" winners to stand aside, which they duly did.  He justified this extraordinary action by standing up at conference and brandishing a "dossier" supposedly containing evidence that his family had been targeted during the elections and that there had been a plot to sabotage conference.  None of that was true.  I have been told by no fewer than three different people, all of whom I trust, that Mr Salmond later openly admitted to someone that no dossier had ever existed and that the whole thing was a gigantic bluff to justify the unjustifiable.  The rigging of those elections would have been one of the biggest scandals in modern Scottish political history if it hadn't been for the fact that journalists see Alba as a total irrelevance and just weren't paying any attention.

Something else I was told by my source in early 2021 is that Mr Salmond wasn't sure whether a new party was going to be possible due to the difficulties of securing funding. It looks like an awful lot of deals were done in the final weeks before the party was launched, and those deals ended up forging the shape of Alba's ruling elite.  That explains the really odd line-up of parliamentary candidates last July.  It possibly explains the special status that everyone knows certain individuals enjoy within the party.  Several people in the know have told me that Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh regards Alba as "her" party in a very literal sense, and that being party chair was non-negotiable for her. That could well be why it's proved impossible to persuade the leadership to accept one member, one vote for NEC elections - the thinking is that Ahmed-Sheikh needs to finish top of the NEC ballot to justify her appointed position as chair, and of course the only way to guarantee that any particular candidate tops the poll is by retaining the downright weird "pay per vote" system that is in place at present.

As far as Yvonne Ridley's special protected status is concerned, that apparently is not to do with money but instead the foreign media contacts she brings to the table.  She apparently opened a lot of doors for Salmond and Ahmed-Sheikh, which was regarded as invaluable, and therefore pretty much anyone will be sacrificed if they displease Ridley.  An Alba member once called her an "Islamist" and McEleny went completely nuts - I've seen the email exchange.

Now that I no longer owe any loyalty to the Alba party, I want to help Alba members make up their own minds about the state of their own party by putting as much information as is realistically possible into the public domain, so I'll be running a series of articles loosely called "THE ALBA FILES". (Before anyone panics, it's only a name.)  I'm going to start with the text of the defence document I submitted to the Disciplinary Committee in the run-up to the December hearing.  So check back later if you'd like to read that.  In the meantime, I'll leave you with an anonymous comment that was left on this blog the other day, and that I think is bang on the money - 

"If anything good has come of your membership of Alba, James, it's this: for years, I thought a lot of Alba High Command left the SNP because they could no longer stomach the authoritarian pivot by SNP leadership.

As your time in the party has shown, it turns out they actually left not because they disagreed with the authoritarian direction of the SNP, but because they were not the ones in charge of that authoritarian direction.

And I include Tasmina, McEleny, and Salmond himself in that. A bunch of self-absorbed, temper-tantruming egoists whose anti-authoritarian 'principles' turn out to have been a bunch of self-serving rubbish.

Aside from MacAskill, the whole upper echelons of the party reek of authoritarian overreach and self-interest. The SNP writ-small, if you will."

It's actually happened: Reform UK move into a JOINT LEAD in the latest Britain-wide poll

Technically, this is not the first time this has happened, because Reform UK is legally a direct continuation of the Brexit Party, which held the outright lead in a handful of polls during that mad period in the late spring and early summer of 2019.  But this is certainly the first time Reform have been in the lead (or joint lead) since their rebrand.

GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 8th January 2025):

Reform UK 25% (-)
Labour 25% (-1)
Conservatives 20% (-3)
Greens 11% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

So what effect will it have on "liberal No" opinion in Scotland to see Reform UK in pole position? Remember Reform have pledged to leave the European Convention on Human Rights within the first hundred days of taking power.  The UK would look like a very different country, very quickly, and to some extent we can already see that on the horizon.

Having said that, we shouldn't necessarily expect to see Reform ahead in the majority of polls in the immediate future, because Find Out Now seem to be more Reform-friendly than most polling companies.  But the real significance of this poll may be Reform building up a five-point lead over the Tories.  If the perception grows that Reform have replaced the Tories as the leading right-wing party, there may be a tipping-point at which a large chunk of Tory voters suddenly move across to Reform, which in turn could lead to a sustained Reform lead over Labour.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

And here they are, they're so appealing...

Tonight at 7pm, my appeal hearing against expulsion from the Alba Party will take place, but my preparations have been interrupted by a bit of unexpected drama.  I was out walking near my home yesterday in a place that used to be very popular with dog walkers, but has become much harder to get to in recent years, so very few people go there now.  I probably hadn't been there myself for at least a year.  I found a sheep that was hopelessly tangled up in...well, I'm not quite sure what the correct terminology is, but branches and jaggedy bushy stuff.  I tried to free it myself but couldn't.  It suddenly dawned on me that because dog walkers don't go there anymore, there was an 80% chance that nobody would find it in time unless I made a phone call.  So I left a message on the answerphone of the farm where I thought the sheep must have come from, and then I phoned the SSPCA, who sent an officer around but they couldn't find the sheep.   They assumed the farmer had probably got to it first, but they told me to phone back if I was out walking again and it was still there.


So today I went back down there to doublecheck, assuming the sheep would be long gone, but it was still there and still trapped.  I phoned the SSPCA back, but I got very unlucky with the person who answered the call, and a frustrating five minutes ensued.  She was suffering from what I now call "McEleny Syndrome" after my experience of dozens of Alba committee meetings.  Because the written report from yesterday said that the sheep was no longer there, she was insistent that was the reality of the situation, even though I was standing at the exact spot and telling her it wasn't true.  "I'm not sure there's much more we can do" she said, "the location has been checked and the animal wasn't there".  Eventually I got exasperated enough with her that she said she'd pass the message on to an officer.  I didn't have any huge confidence that anything would actually happen, but fortunately two people turned up and this time I met them and led them to the sheep.  They freed it from the branches, but as I write this they're still down there deciding on the next steps.

But anyway, tonight's the night.  So could it still be a big night, if I play my cards right?


The answer to that question is likely to be "no", because according to Yvonne Ridley's boast, she had inside information months ago that the Alba leadership had made a secret decision to get rid of me from the party, meaning the extremely lengthy "disciplinary process" that has followed has just been for show.  However, let's stay optimistic for a few hours more, and in tribute to the late great Brucie say with absolute sincerity...

"Nice to see the Appeals Committee, to see the Appeals Committee...NICE!"


Tuesday, January 7, 2025

So I discovered one thing last night - at least one person is keen enough on Ash Regan becoming Alba leader that they are willing to manipulate internet polls to astroturf momentum for her

Although self-selecting online polls are hopelessly unscientific, there's a case to be made for paying some slight heed to them in situations such as the Alba leadership election, because one thing we know for almost certain is that no polling companies will be conducting polls of Alba members.  I suppose straw polls could be taken at branch meetings to get a sense of who is winning, but the results would still not be reliable, because people who attend branch meetings are not necessarily representative of the wider membership.  (Indeed, that was one of the very points I repeatedly made at the Constitution Review Group before Mr McEleny got me removed from my elected position - ie. that all members should be democratically empowered, not just the minority who are able to turn up for meetings.  It predictably went down like a lead balloon, but I stand by that point absolutely.)

Curiously, the first Twitter poll that I saw of the leadership election was run by, of all people, Mike Small of Bella Caledonia.  It showed Ash Regan with a decent lead over Kenny MacAskill. However, I wondered if that might have been partly due to the four-way format, with Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh and Angus MacNeil included as candidates, even though they are unlikely to stand.  So I decided to see what would happen if I ran a head-to-head poll between Mr MacAskill and Ms Regan, and initially, as I suspected would happen, Mr MacAskill did better and built up a slight lead.  

But then I checked back half an hour later and suddenly 500 votes had appeared out of nowhere, and almost all of them were for Ms Regan, who had raced away into an almost 9-1 lead.  It was obvious one or more Regan supporters had manipulated the poll.  Someone suggested there may have been an innocent explanation, perhaps due to Regan supporters enthusiastically sharing the poll among their fellow travellers, but having thought about it, that just doesn't make any sense.  500 people is getting on for 10% of the entire Alba membership, and the idea that they're all reachable within 30 minutes is stretching credibility somewhat.  More likely, perhaps, is that somebody was able to use a large number of fake accounts to give the appearance of widespread support for Ms Regan.

So in a sense this is good news for those like me who are horrified by the thought of a Regan leadership installing Chris McEleny as Alba's Ã©minence grise, because if my poll was manipulated by a Regan supporter, there's a fair chance the same thing happened to the Bella Caledonia poll, which would call into question Ms Regan's lead in that one.  My gut feeling remains that Kenny MacAskill is likely to be elected leader if he stands - with that 'if' being the key variable.

I'd have to say that reading some of the replies to the poll was like stepping into Narnia.  Graeme Spence, Number One Super-Fan of the Regan / McEleny combo, is still pushing the line that Mr MacAskill's 1.5% of the vote in Alloa & Grangemouth is a sign that he is unpopular and out of touch with the electorate.  News-flash, Graeme: Kenny MacAskill took 1.5% of the vote because he was the Alba candidate, not because he was Kenny MacAskill.  His result was bang in line with all Alba candidates in Scotland, including Chris McEleny himself, who took just 1.8% of the vote in Inverclyde. It's likely that part of the reason Eva Comrie outpolled Mr MacAskill in Alloa & Grangemouth is precisely that she ran as an independent and wasn't weighed down by the baggage of the Alba brand.

Someone else claimed Ash Regan should be leader because she's an MSP and "polls show" she will hold her seat.  It's as if Chris McEleny saying something in an email is enough to make it real.  To reiterate, the true position is as follows: all polling companies with the sole exception of Find Out Now currently show Alba on course for zero seats, which would mean Ash Regan would lose her seat.  And even if Find Out Now are right and every other polling firm is wrong, there's still no guarantee she would hold on, because Alba would only be taking a list seat in three out of eight regions.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Monday, January 6, 2025

Drama as controversial blogger Stuart Campbell denounces his own regular pollster as a "fringe polling company" - has there been some behind-the-scenes falling-out, or is this just shameless hypocrisy to cover up his own embarrassment about a dodgy prediction? My guess is the latter...

Former independence supporter Stuart Campbell has a long and storied history of making bold political predictions which prove to be completely wrong, and then retrospectively coming up with excruciatingly convoluted explanations for why those don't actually count as incorrect predictions.  Often the explanations are along the lines of "obviously I would have been proved right if Completely Unforeseeable Factor X hadn't occurred" - that was why, for example, we're apparently obliged not to take any account of his announcement in spring 2023 that Humza Yousaf was definitely going to lose the SNP leadership election.  (Yousaf actually narrowly won by 52.1% to 47.9% in the second round.)

With almost exquisite timing, Campbell declared on 3rd December 2024 that - 

"We’re going to call this one early: there is zero prospect of a pro-indy majority after the next Holyrood election. None. Barring a nuclear war or an alien invasion or some equally implausible revolutionary event, it’s simply not happening"

Within less than a week, a Norstat poll had appeared showing the SNP and Greens on course to retain the pro-independence majority after the next Holyrood election.  And before the end of the month, there was another poll from Find Out Now showing not merely a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, but just as big a majority as the one that was secured at the 2021 election.  Of course none of this means that there will definitely be a pro-indy majority after May 2026, but what it does mean is that any claim that such a majority is "impossible" is left looking incredibly silly and obviously wrong.

It's been a long wait to find out how Campbell intended to talk himself out of this one, and when the moment came it didn't disappoint.  In fact, this excuse is an absolute belter, perhaps the all-time classic of the genre - 

"A few of the dimmer bulbs in the indy movement have been getting over-excited at what are still currently a couple of outlier polls from fringe polling companies, which suggest that the 2026 election could unexpectedly return a pro-indy majority due to the Unionist vote being split four ways in the wake of UK Labour’s implosion in government."

Yeah, you're way ahead of me here - the problem is that one of the two pollsters Campbell is dismissing as "fringe polling companies" is Norstat, which just happens to be a rebranded continuation of Panelbase, Campbell's own preferred polling company.  Indeed, not just "preferred" - Panelbase / Norstat is to the best of my recollection the only polling company Campbell has ever used.  He's commissioned a very large number of polls from them, certainly well into double figures, going all the way back to before the independence referendum in 2014.

This raises a few obvious questions for Campbell - 

1) If Norstat / Panelbase are a "fringe" company, why did you keep using them?

2) Why did you never commission polls from "non-fringe" companies?

3) If polling results from so-called "fringe" companies are suspect, does this mean that the results of all your own polls down the years are essentially worthless?

4) Does the 'worthless polls' designation extend in particular to the results of your propaganda poll questions about, among other things, gender identity politics and Kezia Dugdale's role at the John Smith Centre?  

To be clear, the vast majority of Scot Goes Pop's polls over the years have also been Panelbase polls (the only exceptions were one Survation poll in 2021 and one Find Out Now poll in 2023) and I've always thought they are an absolutely excellent company.  Campbell has repeatedly expressed the same view, so I've no idea why he has had this sudden and total change of heart - unless of course he's got some intense personal embarrassment he needs to hurriedly cover up.  Yes, come to think of it, that would probably explain it quite neatly.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Sunday, January 5, 2025

Farage's Bloody Sunday - has Musk just saved the Tories with a single tweet?

I was going to post about the first GB-wide poll of 2025 being yet another to show Reform UK hitting a new high watermark with a specific firm (this time Deltapoll), but that news has been well and truly overtaken by Elon Musk dramatically dumping his former darling Nigel Farage and announcing that Reform UK needs a new leader.

It's easy to snigger at Musk's extreme fickleness and naivety about British politics - after all, whatever his reason for ditching Farage (most likely Farage's refusal to embrace Tommy Robinson), it's likely to have been something he could easily have found out months ago if he'd asked the right questions or entered the right Google search terms.  And in any case there really is nobody other than Farage capable of leading Reform to electoral success.  But this latest change of heart may matter a great deal, because a lot of the momentum behind Reform was based on the assumption that Musk was about to make it the best-funded party in the UK and would be indefinitely churning out propaganda on its behalf on Twitter.  OK, Musk is unlikely to start backing the Tories, but if Reform is replaced in his affections by a much less voter-friendly far-right option such as the BNP or UKIP, in practice that can only work in the Tories' favour.

Incidentally, there's surely a lesson here for the leading figures in the Alba Party who have been paying homage to Musk and practically begging for his attention and even his funding.  If Farage isn't far-right enough for Musk, it's highly unlikely that Neale Hanvey, Ash Regan or even Chris McEleny will ever be deemed up to scratch.  Isn't it slightly degrading to so publicly thirst after affections that will never be granted?

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk