SCOT goes POP!
A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - voted one of Scotland's top 10 political websites.
Friday, September 22, 2023
Vote for pro-independence parties increases in Girvan & South Carrick by-election
Monday, September 18, 2023
An appeal for nominations for Alba's forthcoming internal elections
This is a message for readers who are members of the Alba Party. As you may know, nominations have opened for various internal elections within the party, and I'd like to put myself forward and seek nominations for two positions -
Membership Support Convener (this position is mostly referred to as 'Member Support Convener' in the Alba constitution, but is also referred to as 'Membership Support Convener' and elsewhere as 'Membership Convener' - it's all the same thing)
and
Ordinary member of the NEC (National Executive Committee)
To stand for the Membership Support Convener position I'd require nominations from twenty individual Alba members (or one Alba LACU). To stand for an ordinary member slot on the NEC, I'd require nominations from ten individual Alba members (or one Alba LACU). So if you do decide to nominate me, I'd be grateful if you could nominate me for both positions - although, of course, that's at your own discretion, and if you think I'm suitable for one role but not the other, you do also have the option of nominating me for just the one.
If I recall correctly from what happened in 2021, if someone is nominated for both an office bearer role and an ordinary NEC member position, the office bearer election takes place first. If they are successful in that election, their name is then removed from the list of candidates for the ordinary NEC members. But if they are not elected to the office bearer role, they then continue as a candidate for the ordinary NEC member election. So that's why ideally I'm seeking to be nominated for both positions.
I've held off for a few days from putting out this call for nominations, because I had written to Alba asking for clarification on exactly how nominations should be submitted. There hasn't been a reply yet, so I think the time has now come to get cracking. I'll just have to give you my best guess on how the nominations process works. It looks like it's probably the same system that was used in 2021 (but not in 2022), ie. that members should send an email to the Alba conference address with details of the person(s) they wish to nominate and the positions they wish to nominate them for. The email address to send nominations to is listed on the Alba website as: conference@albaparty.org
[Update: The first person who attempted to nominate me said the above email address was not recognised. I've just sent a test message to the address myself, and so far I haven't received an error message, so I'm still assuming the address is active, but if you run into any problems let me know as soon as possible and I'll query it as a matter of urgency.]
Once you've emailed Alba with your nominations, I'd be grateful if you'd then also email me letting me know you've nominated me, and also whether you've nominated me for both positions or just one. Apologies for doubling your trouble in this way, but there are two important reasons for asking you to do this: a) so I can judge how near or far away I am from the thresholds of ten and twenty nominations, and b) just in case I've misinterpreted how nominations are supposed to be submitted (for example if I find out at the last minute I was supposed to send over a list of names myself). My own email address is: icehouse.250@gmail.com
Nominations are open until 6th October. Many thanks in advance to any members who do decide to nominate me, and the best of luck to anyone else throwing their hat into the ring for these internal elections.
What would happen in the Rutherglen by-election if the YouGov poll is exactly right?
Last week's YouGov poll was the first relatively good poll for the SNP for several months, although the reporting of it was accompanied by a flat statement from John Curtice that the swing back to the SNP wouldn't be enough for them to hold the Rutherglen & Hamilton West constituency in the forthcoming by-election. Although that's true, it doesn't tell the full story.
The 11-point national lead for the SNP in the YouGov poll suggests there has been approximately a 7.5 point swing from SNP to Labour since the 2019 general election. If that swing is applied to the Rutherglen seat, it's enough to put Labour ahead, but only by around five points. In other words, if the YouGov poll is exactly right, Labour should be regarded as favourites in Rutherglen, but the contest should also be regarded as competitive.
Now in practice I would expect Labour to win the by-election by more than five points. The YouGov poll may well flatter the SNP a bit, because it's out of line with what other polls have shown recently. And there are difficult local circumstances for the SNP - they stupidly participated in the prolonged demonisation of their former MP Margaret Ferrier, thus grotesquely allowing sleaze-ridden Labour to present themselves as a new broom. Labour's status as an opposition party in both Holyrood and Westminster makes it a lot simpler for them to attract protest votes. And there have been other miscellaneous problems for the SNP such as the paid leafleters story.
But nevertheless, the YouGov poll is the closest thing the SNP have had to a genuine glimmer of hope since the sorry saga of this by-election started.
Friday, September 15, 2023
Why are Alba not embarrassing Yousaf by claiming credit for his U-turn, rather than attacking him for doing exactly what they asked him to do?
I've written about this before, but it's something that genuinely bewilders me about the Alba Party's current positioning. When Nicola Sturgeon first announced the de facto referendum plan (unfortunately since semi-abandoned by Yousaf and replaced with a "Schrodinger's de facto"), I felt strongly that it was a step forward. The Alba leadership were, however, heavily critical, and one of the key points they made was that it was unforgiveable that Ms Sturgeon had unnecessarily specified that only an absolute majority of the popular vote would count as a mandate for independence. They felt that this represented a kind of pre-surrender on behalf of the independence movement, one that would take effect in the more likely circumstances that a majority of seats was won and not a majority of votes.
I had a lot of sympathy with what the Scottish Government were saying at that point, because in the real world the general public will not accept a mandate won on, say, 35% or 42% of the vote as sufficient for Scotland to become an independent country. I thought it possibly made sense to make a virtue out of necessity by accepting that reality in advance, so that voters could see that no-one was trying to win independence in a tricksy or underhand manner. I did add, however, that there was no great harm in Alba continuing to argue the case that a majority of seats should be sufficient for an independence mandate. I know from having talked to senior Alba people at the time that for many of them it wasn't just a matter of tactical positioning, and that they sincerely and vehemently felt that if it was fine for successive UK governments to do what they liked to Scotland, despite having been elected on well under 50% of the UK-wide popular vote, then the principle should cut both ways.
Since becoming leader, Yousaf has made a number of fundamental modifications to the Sturgeon plan, most of them negative ones which water it down. But he has undoubtedly done exactly what Alba asked him to do on the question of the mandate threshold - he is now saying that a majority of seats (perhaps even just a plurality of seats) will be a mandate for independence and that a majority of votes is not required. And yet, bizarrely, Alba are attacking him for doing exactly what they requested, and strongly implying he should go back to the Sturgeon position which they castigated her for. Here is what Alex Salmond was quoted as saying yesterday in a BBC article: "No-one seriously believes that proposing a majority of seats as an independence mandate is at all credible."
I haven't been on the Alba NEC since last October, so I'm no longer as plugged-in to the evolution of the leadership's thinking as I used to be, but with the best will in the world, it's impossible to see that statement as anything other than a total contradiction of what Alba were saying last year, when they were not only arguing that a mandate based on a majority of seats was credible, but was in fact the only credible position that any pro-independence party could possibly hold.
Now, I totally understand that small parties need to find wedge issues and differentiate themselves from larger parties they're trying to take votes from. But in doing so, you surely have to take care to maintain congruity between your 2023 position and your 2022 position. Rather than attacking and mocking Yousaf for doing exactly what you demanded he should do, it would make far more sense to embarrass him by claiming his U-turn as a massive triumph for Alba's campaigning.
My own view of this aspect of Yousaf's Schrodinger's de facto plan is that it is indeed nonsensical, but as I said about Alba's similar position last year, there may be no great harm in him publicly putting it forward. A majority of seats won on a minority of votes will obviously not result in Scottish independence, but by arguing in advance that it ought to, it may be more likely that the media will treat any such election outcome as a score draw, and that the independence movement will live to fight another day. You can argue the case either way, but for Alba to suddenly turn their attack lines upside down and insist that the target for an independence mandate should be substantially increased (and thus made much harder to reach) seems distinctly odd.
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My recent blogpost, about the difficulty of keeping Scot Goes Pop going for much longer due to lack of funds, produced a significant response. Not all of it is visible on the fundraiser page itself because some of the donations were made directly via Paypal, but a substantial amount has been raised since I posted. The fundraiser remains well short of its target, but I'll certainly keep going for as long as I possibly can, and there's still some sort of chance I may be able to keep going indefinitely, depending on what happens over the next few weeks. Many thanks to everyone who has donated, and if anyone else would like to contribute, the fundraiser page can be found HERE. Alternatively, direct payments can be made via Paypal - my Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Thursday, September 14, 2023
One swallow does not make a summer, but give the SNP leadership their due: YouGov have just served up a rare sighting of a relatively good poll for the party
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (YouGov, 8th-13th September 2023):
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My recent blogpost, about the difficulty of keeping Scot Goes Pop going for much longer due to lack of funds, produced a significant response. Not all of it is visible on the fundraiser page itself because some of the donations were made directly via Paypal, but a substantial amount has been raised since I posted. The fundraiser remains well short of its target, but I'll certainly keep going for as long as I possibly can, and there's still some sort of chance I may be able to keep going indefinitely, depending on what happens over the next few weeks. Many thanks to everyone who has donated, and if anyone else would like to contribute, the fundraiser page can be found HERE. Alternatively, direct payments can be made via Paypal - my Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Wednesday, September 13, 2023
Sorry, did you just sing about the King being sappy and laborious? I couldn't really hear over all that BOOING.
Remember at this time last year, unionist commentators couldn't contain their rather inappropriate jubilation at the TV pictures of people in Scotland lining the streets to see the Queen's final journey, or queueing up at St Giles' Cathedral to pay their respects? This was, we were excitedly assured, absolute proof that there exists in Scotland a "silent majority" who love Our Precious Union and who quietly seethe away on a daily basis at an SNP government and a wider independence movement that Don't Represent The Real Scotland. It was wishful thinking on steroids, of course - if any such silent majority existed, it would show up in election results and there wouldn't have been a pro-indy government since 2007. Even silent people are perfectly capable of going to a polling station and using a pen or pencil to mark a cross on a ballot paper. (Incidentally, I was one of the people who lined the streets last September, but that didn't make me a silent Brit Nat.)
But this unionist infatuation with the idea that anecdotes or things you see happen on the TV somehow trump election results is, I think, the explanation for their weird meltdown over the booing at Hampden last night. Spontaneous episodes of that sort are supposed to affirm their belief thaf 'The Real Scotland Is Decent And British', but instead it went completely the other way. That bothers them on a visceral level, and they need to find An Explanation For It. Naturally they're going for the lazy option of "it's just a tiny minority of idiots whipped up into hatred of the English by the SNP", but not even they really believe that. It didn't sound much like a tiny minority, did it? I could barely even hear the tune over the booing (I'm using the word "tune" in the loosest sense).
To be clear, I do not approve of the Hampden crowd booing other countries' anthems. I was there in person in 2021 when the Czech anthem was booed, and I said at the time how much I didn't like it. Exactly the same principle applies to the English anthem. But by the same token, I'm realistic enough to know that Scottish football supporters booing the English anthem is an unstoppable force of nature, and getting overly worried about the fact you can't stop it is about as daft as worrying about the fact that you can't stop pantomime audiences from booing the Evil Stepmother. Unionists are incapable of putting it in that proper perspective because they didn't hear the English football anthem being booed, they instead heard the British political anthem about the British King being booed, and according to unionist ideology Scots are supposed to secretly adore Britain and His Majesty.
BBC unionist propagandist Nick "he didn't answer" Robinson got so frantic about the whole problem that he suggested England should stop using God Save The King as their football anthem because it's an "invitation for the Tartan Army to boo in order to demonstrate that they are loyal to Scotland". That was a somewhat puzzling comment, but I think what it's supposed to mean is that the Tartan Army would boo any anthem England come up with, but that wouldn't actually bother Robinson one jot as long as it's not God Save The King - the booing of which is apparently intolerable to his dignity as a Brit and thus must be stopped by any means. Why is it intolerable? Robinson's official version is that it needlessly creates a false impression that Scottish football fans dislike the UK, whereas in fact they adore the UK and would never boo anything British unless they were forced into it. The unofficial version is that he's worried the fans were booing God Save The King precisely because it's the UK anthem and he would rather not be confronted ever again with that disquieting possibility.
It reminds me of one of the lowest points in the history of BBC Sport, when political impartiality was completely tossed aside to allow the Belfast-born (ahem) football commentator Alan Green to launch into a lengthy ranting monologue about Scottish supporters booing God Save The Queen at the Scotland v England Euro 2000 qualification play-off in late 1999. He made clear that he was only angry about the incident because "the last time I checked, that's still the anthem of the United Kingdom, of which Scotland is a part". So in other words, he wasn't bothered about Scots booing the anthem of another country, but expected the English anthem to be an exception to the general rule because it doubles up as the political anthem of the sovereign state Scotland is part of, even though it wasn't being used in that context. As it happens, Alan and Nick, Scots are quite capable of booing the United Kingdom anthem when it's actually being used as the United Kingdom anthem, because at least half of us don't want Scotland to be part of the United Kingdom. But I must say that as special pleading goes, saying that Scots still have to treat GSTK with reverence even in the context of England nicking it and using it as their anthem alone, really takes the biscuit. That arrogance would in itself probably warrant at least a few jeers.
The supreme example of this double standard is Ally McCoist blasting Scotland supporters as "SNP fans" for booing the English anthem (a nakedly political comment that undoubtedly oversteps the mark for any sports broadcaster) and then openly admitting that he lustily sang along with the English anthem "because I'm British". I mean, it's one thing treating the opposing side's anthem with the appropriate respect, but singing it yourself and believing you're somehow singing for your own country in doing so? It's just bizarre. Let's hope people don't react by calling him a "Tory fan", but he wouldn't have much credibility in complaining if they do, because they'd just be following his own logic to its inexorable conclusion.
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I have an article on The National's website about the new Find Out Now poll which shows a pro-independence majority - you can read the article HERE.
It's the settled will: yet another new poll confirms Scotland wants to become an independent country
Many thanks to Paul Kirkwood, who has just pointed out to me that a new Find Out Now poll on Scottish independence was released last night on Twitter. Two versions of the result are given, both with a Yes lead - one is weighted by recalled 2014 indyref vote, and the other is not. Judging by what happened last time, Find Out Now will probably specify the former as the headline numbers, in which case it's...
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Find Out Now / Independent Voices, 5th-12th September 2023)
Saturday, September 9, 2023
Addressing the bizarre claims that the Redfield & Wilton poll was "good for Humza"
Wednesday, September 6, 2023
SNP on course for general election defeat, says new Redfield & Wilton poll - intensifying the pressure on Yousaf to either resign, or end rule-by-faction
For only the second time in many years, a polling firm has reported that the SNP have lost their outright lead on Westminster voting intentions. They haven't been overtaken - Labour have merely drawn level. However, due to the inbuilt advantage Labour enjoy courtesy of the grotesque first-past-the-post voting system, a dead heat in the popular vote equates to clear defeat for the SNP in terms of seats.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 2nd-4th September 2023):
Stuart Campbell of Wings Over Scotland has spent the last 5 years pretending to be furious with the SNP for not holding an independence referendum which he now openly admits he would abstain in. It's been a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing (other than his own hypocrisy).
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) September 5, 2023
POLL: If you had to make a straight choice between independence and your side of the gender / trans debate coming out on top, which would you choose?
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) September 5, 2023
Tuesday, September 5, 2023
No, "the polls" are not showing Labour's lead in Rutherglen has been "slashed" over the last week - not least because there haven't been any polls
There's a deceitful post - there's no other word for it, really - on Professor John Robertson's blog tonight, and it's resulted in a number of copycat tweets from people who really ought to know better by now. Professor Robertson is claiming that "the polls" are showing Labour's lead has been slashed in the Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-election over the last week, but in fact so far there haven't been any polls in Rutherglen & Hamilton West - not only in the last week, but not at all. Nor have there been any Scotland-wide polls over the last week from which an extrapolation can be made. It's plainly ludicrous to suggest the polls are showing a certain trend when no polls from the relevant period actually exist.
What Robertson is referring to as "two polls" are in fact not polls, but predictions made by websites. One comes from the newly resurrected UK Polling Report and the other from Electoral Calculus. Robertson does not present any evidence that either website's prediction has suggested a drop in the Labour lead in the constituency over the last week, and indeed he does not even claim that they have. Instead, he makes an apples-and-oranges comparison between what the Electoral Calculus prediction was showing a week ago and what the UK Polling Report prediction is showing now, and pretends that it can be taken of indicative of the SNP closing the gap, even though each prediction is based on a completely different methodology, and even though the data being inputed into each prediction can't have changed over the last week for the obvious reason that there's been no new polling data from the last week to input. (In fact there's a graph on UK Polling Report suggesting their prediction has been stable for many weeks.)
Oh, and the predictions aren't even for the by-election, but instead for the Rutherglen constituency in the general election. Apart from all that, though, a characteristically bang-on accurate contribution from the Prof.
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My blogpost two weeks ago, about the difficulty of keeping Scot Goes Pop going for much longer due to lack of funds, produced a substantial response. Not all of it is visible on the fundraiser page itself because around half the donations were made directly via Paypal, but over £700 has been raised since I posted. The fundraiser remains well short of its target, but I'll certainly keep going for as long as I possibly can, and there's still some sort of chance I may be able to keep going indefinitely, depending on what happens over the next few weeks. Many thanks to everyone who has donated, and if anyone else would like to contribute, the fundraiser page can be found HERE. Alternatively, direct payments can be made via Paypal - my Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk