More thoughts on the prospects for an SNP overall majority in the light of the Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll

Just to allow you to make up your own minds, I thought I'd draw your attention to the fact that the Stats for Lefties account picked up on the Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll yesterday, and produced their own seats projection from it that is radically different from the one I published on Wednesday night:

SNP 68

Greens 18

Reform UK 15

Liberal Democrats 10

Labour 10

Conservatives 8

That would be a single-party SNP overall majority, whereas my projection has the SNP six seats short of a majority on 59.  I've been saying for months (and I really have been saying this for months) that the Stats for Lefties projection model always seems to be overly optimistic for the SNP, and often produces an overall majority when other models do not.  During the debate in the autumn about whether the SNP should adopt the target of an overall majority, I was very concerned that some of the proponents of the idea were using the Stats for Lefties projections to give the impression that a majority was a lot more likely than was really the case.

However, there are two caveats this time around.  As I said myself the other night, in the real world the Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll would probably produce about 63 SNP seats (almost a majority but not quite), because most of the 12% of people who said they would vote Green on the constituency ballot will not be able to do so, and a lot of them will actually vote SNP.  So if the Stats for Lefties projection is making some sort of common sense adjustment to the constituency numbers to take account of that, it might not be quite so far out.  

And secondly, even without any adjustment, the constituency vote shares from the poll are actually better for the SNP than the Find Out Now MRP poll from last month.  The MRP poll had the SNP on 34% of the vote and gave them a 16-point lead over the second placed party (Labour).  The Scot Goes Pop poll has the SNP on 35% and gives them a 19-point lead over the second-placed party (Reform UK).  The MRP poll, once the individual constituency-level projections were totted up, gave the SNP an overall majority - it was surprising that it showed that, but it did.  So if you think the projection method that was used in that MRP poll was sound, then yes, the Scot Goes Pop poll probably would point to an SNP overall majority, even before you take into account the issue of the Greens on the constituency ballot.

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If you've been finding the new Scot Goes Pop poll interesting or useful, please check out the new polling fundraiser I've set up.

Atlas-branded leaflets are being distributed in the Cumbernauld & Kilsyth constituency pushing blatantly far-right policies and conspiracy theories: will Tommy Sheridan and the others finally disown this?

I was astounded at the leaflet I received through the door of my Cumbernauld home yesterday from the notorious Dr Alan McManus, who has regularly spoken at far-right rallies organised by the holocaust denier and Brit Nat Ultra Alistair McConnachie (of "Independent Green Voice" fame), and who is standing in the Cumbernauld & Kilsyth constituency on a joint ticket of his own "Sovereignty" party and Barrhead Boy's "Alliance to Liberate Scotland" party (aka "the Atlas").  The leaflet is prominently branded with the logos of both parties, and also with the Atlas slogan: "Independence.  Nothing Else.  Nothing Less."  With no apparent sense of irony, one side of the leaflet then goes on to set out a variety of extremely controversial - and in some cases downright offensive - policies that have got absolutely nothing whatever to do with independence, and which on the basis of the branding it's reasonable to conclude the entirety of Atlas must endorse.  Tommy Sheridan, Eva Comrie, Craig Murray, Marjorie Thompson, et al: this guy claims to be speaking on behalf of you.  Do you disown him?  Do you disown these policies he's putting out under the branding of your party?

Alliance to Liberate Scotland policies, as revealed by Dr Alan McManus in his election leaflets:

* That there should NEVER be another lockdown.  That's right, even if a deadly and highly infectious pathogen (potentially one with a far higher mortality rate than Covid) is wiping out the population, we shouldn't take even temporary steps to check its progress and to save lives.

* The existence of vaccines against Covid is a problem that must be "tackled" (in some unspecified way, but we can probably guess).

* Immigration is implied to be a leading cause of "predatory" behaviour by men, and *deportation* is proposed as a solution.

* Climate change is a "scam" and all action to tackle it should be discontinued.

* Cities and towns in which it is possible to walk to useful places within fifteen minutes are EVIL.

* Non-white people (the euphemism used is people who are not "indigenous") should be discriminated against in the provision of housing.

Great company you're keeping there, Tommy and the gang.  When you get round to telling us whether you disown McManus and his policies, could you also maybe talk us through the meaning, as you see it, of the phrase "Independence, nothing else"?  Because I'm beginning to think this is some kind of sister language to English in which the words mean the exact polar opposite of what we think they mean.

As so many people have pointed out, the most logical explanation for what is happening would appear to be that the far-right nutters in Sovereignty agreed to bankroll the Atlas campaign, and that the Atlas crew knowingly did a deal with the devil simply so they could contest this election.  One might almost say that Atlas has lost its moral compass.

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SCOT GOES POP / FIND OUT NOW POLL: There's still more to come from our new exclusive poll, although it won't be tonight.  In the meantime, though, if you've been finding the poll useful and would like another one at some point in the future, please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser.

EXCLUSIVE SCOT GOES POP / FIND OUT NOW POLL: SNP and Greens on course to win nearly TWO-THIRDS of Holyrood seats and a pro-independence SUPERMAJORITY - SNP overall majority still a possibility - Labour slump to dismal FIFTH place in the seats projection

A little earlier tonight, I revealed the Scottish Parliament voting intention results from the new Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll in a video on my YouTube channel, but as promised, here are the results in text form...

Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll, 15th-20th April 2026

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 35% (+1)

Reform UK 16% (+1)

Labour 14% (-4)

Greens 12% (+3)

Liberal Democrats 10% (-)

Conservatives 9% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 27% (-2)

Greens 20% (+6)

Reform UK 17% (+1)

Labour 12% (-5)

Liberal Democrats 11% (+1)

Conservatives 10% (-)

Seats projection:

SNP 59

Greens 23

Reform UK 17

Liberal Democrats 11

Labour 10

Conservatives 9

PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 82 SEATS

ANTI-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 47 SEATS

Just a reminder that the sample size was 1002, and the percentage changes are measured from Find Out Now's recent MRP poll commissioned by The National.

As stated in the video, I can't find a higher Green list vote share in any poll from any polling firm over the last few years, so it's certainly a high watermark in recent times and may be an all-time high, but I'm not sure on the latter point.  To address a question that I know will be raised, Professor John Curtice cast doubt on Find Out Now's list results a few months ago, because he felt the wording of their list question might be artificially boosting support for smaller pro-independence parties.  They took that feedback on board and replaced the question with a new wording that immediately reduced support for the smaller parties.  

When I saw such a surprisingly high Green vote in this poll, I did doublecheck to make sure Find Out Now were still using the new version of the question, and indeed they were, so to the best of my knowledge there's no particular reason to be sceptical about the results - apart of course from the fact that any poll can potentially be an outlier, and some might argue that the Green list result in this poll has 'outlier' written all over it because it isn't in line with trends shown by most other polling firms recently.  But keep an open mind until we see the next batch of polls: there's always just a chance that this is the early evidence of a new trend.

All polling firms have house effects, but trends are often more consistent across the polling industry, and I must say it's very hard to square these results with the propaganda message we've been hearing from Labour about their vote firming up on the doorsteps.  Similarly the Tories claim to be faring surprisingly well - but if so, shouldn't there at least be some sign of that in this poll?!

In case you're wondering about the quirk of Labour only being in fifth place in the seats projection when they're in third place on the constituency ballot and fourth place on the list, the main explanation for that is the likelihood that the Lib Dems will win more constituency seats than Labour.

It's really important to remember that the seats projection is taking the constituency vote shares seriously, and is thus likely to be underestimating the SNP, who I reckon would be on 63 seats - and thus only just short of an overall majority - if you make a common sense adjustment to reassign a slim majority of Green constituency voters to the SNP in the seats where the Greens are not standing.  But it's fair to say the main story of this poll is about the prospect of a two-party pro-independence supermajority of the type that Alex Salmond suggested in 2021 might break the logjam (albeit of course that supermajority, if it happens, will not consist of the parties he had in mind).  It's also about the prospect of pro-independence parties filling the roles of both the government and the main opposition party - which is similarly an outcome that it has been suggested in the past might be a staging-post towards independence.

There's still more to come from this poll in the days to come, but in the meantime please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser - if you have a few pounds to spare it would be very much appreciated, and might inch us closer to being able to run another poll at some point in the future.

EXCLUSIVE SCOT GOES POP / FIND OUT NOW POLL: Join me at 11.50pm on YouTube to hear the release of the Scottish Parliament voting intention numbers

If you join the waiting zone, the video above should automatically start playing at 11.50pm.  Just like last night, I'll be posting the poll results on this blog in text form later on for the video-phobic.

In the meantime, please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser, and if you feel able to chip in a few pounds, that would be very much appreciated.

It's GO! The Scottish Parliament voting intention numbers from the new Scot Goes Pop poll will be released TONIGHT

 

While you're waiting for the thrills and spills of later tonight, please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser HERE.

EXCLUSIVE SCOT GOES POP / FIND OUT NOW POLL: A significant majority of voters in Scotland would vote Yes to independence in a new referendum held now

As promised for the video-phobic amongst you (although do watch the video version if you're not video-phobic!), here are the independence results in text form from the new Scot Goes Pop poll I commissioned last week.  The polling firm that conducted the poll was Find Out Now, who are a member of the British Polling Council and abide by that organisation's rules.  They're also a member of the Market Research Society.  The sample consists of 1002 respondents who were interviewed between 15th and 20th April, in other words between Wednesday of last week and yesterday.  

Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll

If another Scottish independence referendum was held tomorrow, with the question 'Should Scotland be an independent country?', how would you vote?

Yes 53% (-) 

No 47% (-)

Those numbers, which exclude Don't Knows, are unchanged from the most recent comparable Find Out Now poll, which was commissioned by The National in February.  However, on the figures which leave Don't Knows in, there is a small increase in the Yes lead:

Yes 50% (-)

No 44% (-1)

Undecided 6% (+1)

The results have been weighted by age, gender, region and recalled 2024 general election vote - but not, crucially, by 2014 referendum recalled vote, which after this length of time carries with it the risk of false recall.  (Find Out Now's methodology is absolutely consistent regardless of client, let me stress - these results would have been exactly the same if the poll had been commissioned by the Daily Express.)

In my view, what is most significant about these results is that they are bang up to date and are taken from fieldwork right in the middle of an election campaign, because we know from past experience that independence support sometimes dips during elections, even when the SNP's own vote holds up.  That's probably because unionist parties devote so much of their campaigning to attacks on the subject without the SNP necessarily responding in kind.  But on the evidence of this poll, it's not a problem on this occasion.

Across the whole polling industry, there have now been fifteen independence polls in 2026 so far.  Nine of them have shown a Yes lead, only four have shown a No lead, and the remaining two were dead heats.  No fewer than *six* different polling firms have shown a pro-independence majority at some point this year: Find Out Now, Ipsos, Savanta, Stonehaven, Norstat and More In Common (although I must admit I hadn't previously been aware of the Savanta poll until I checked the list just now - I'll have to look into it).

There is no gender gap in the Find Out Now poll other than the fact that women are slightly more likely to be undecided: they break 49% to 43% for Yes, while among men the Yes lead is 51% to 45%.  As ever, there is an enormous gulf between the youngest and oldest respondents, although in this case the best age bracket for Yes is thirtysomethings.  30-39 year olds break 68% to 27% for Yes.  The best age group for No is 65-74 year olds, who break 69% to 26% for No.  The youngest age group to be pro-No is 55-64 year olds.  

Among people who voted for unionist parties in the 2024 UK general election, there is considerable minority support for independence (except among Tory voters who are almost monolithically No).  26% of Labour voters, 21% of Liberal Democrat voters, and 20% of Reform UK voters would back Yes in a new referendum.  In a way that's a bad thing, though, because we want all independence supporters to be voting for pro-independence parties - we don't want then cross-voting for unionist parties.

The settled will klaxon is sounding tonight, and I can tell you that KC has already heard it loud and clear.  There's plenty more to come from this poll, including the Holyrood numbers, which as I said in the video contain a really quite stunning result in one particular respect - and the more I've checked it and compared it to previous polls, the more extraordinary it looks.  

So keep an eye out for more results over the coming days, and in the meantime please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser - if you have a few pounds to spare it would be very much appreciated.

Be the first to discover the INDEPENDENCE RESULTS from the exclusive new Scot Goes Pop opinion poll: join me at 9pm on YouTube for the release

As far as I know, if you join the waiting zone, the video above should automatically start playing at 9pm, although you may have to endure a two-minute countdown clock.  If nothing appears after a minute or two, try refreshing.

For those of you who are totally video-phobic, don't worry: I'll also post the results in text form on the blog, but later in the evening.

In the meantime, please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser, and if you feel able to chip in a few pounds, that would be very much appreciated.

This is not a drill: the independence results from the new Scot Goes Pop poll will be released TONIGHT

 

I'll post the link to the video revealing the results once I've scheduled it.  (I'm trying to build up some suspense and anticipation here, but doubtless that's a forlorn hope.) 

Don't forget the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser I've set up, if you'd like to chip in with a few pounds - it can be found HERE.

My latest constituency profile for The National is Midlothian North.

A heads-up: a new Scot Goes Pop-commissioned opinion poll will be published before election day

So a small announcement - I have commissioned Scot Goes Pop's first opinion poll since the two that were done back-to-back during the SNP leadership election in early 2023.  For cost reasons, it's not going to be the sort of all-singing, all-dancing poll I used to commission back in the day with eight, nine or ten questions - it'll be a bit smaller-scale than that, but I've chosen the questions for maximum impact and I don't think you'll be disappointed by them.

The reason I stopped commissioning polls was because the fundraising efforts ran out of steam, and I had to start concentrating more on general fundraising for the blog if I was going to stay afloat at all.  However, it's been three years since the last poll, and it'll potentially be another three years until the next major election takes place in Scotland, so I don't think there's much doubt that if I'm going to do another one at any point, now is the moment to do it.  It'll be a few days at least before the results are ready, but I thought I'd make an advance announcement to help with the publicising of my new polling fundraiser, which I hope will not only assist with the costs of the current poll, but if we're really lucky potentially also build up a small war-chest for a future poll at a moment of maximum impact.

Here is the pitch I've written for the fundraiser on the GoFundMe page - 

Hi there, my name is James Kelly, and I write the pro-independence Scot Goes Pop blog, which spends much of its time covering opinion polls.

Polls can shape much of the narrative of any election campaign, and that leaves us with a problem in Scotland because most polls are commissioned by unionist media clients. The media don't, of course, decide the results of those polls, but they do decide which issues are and aren't worth asking about, and also what emphasis each result should be given at the time of publication. It's become increasingly frequent over the last couple of years, for example, for the results on the standard Yes/No question about Scottish independence to be totally buried in the reporting - and doubtless it's just an astounding coincidence that this has happened at precisely the moment that Yes has moved into a clear lead in the polling average.

Between 2020 and 2023, I was fortunate enough to be able to offer a corrective to this problem on my website Scot Goes Pop. Roughly every four months during that period, I was able to commission a poll from a variety of reputable polling firms affiliated to the British Polling Council, and to ask the questions that we in the independence movement wanted asked, not the ones that unionist journalists and politicians wanted asked. It wasn't easy, because polls are very expensive, but I was able to do it with your help.

Some of those polls were genuine landmarks. Remember that extraordinary period between mid-2020 and early 2021 when every single independence poll showed a Yes majority? The very first poll in that unbroken sequence was a Panelbase poll commissioned by Scot Goes Pop in June 2020. A few months later, another Scot Goes Pop-commissioned poll showed the largest Yes lead in any Panelbase poll ever. Supplementary results from the polls showed, among other things, that voters want Scotland to join the international treaty banning nuclear weapons, and think it would be appropriate to use a scheduled election to seek a mandate for independence if the option of a referendum is closed off.

I haven't commissioned a poll for three years because the fundraising efforts ran out of steam. However, if there was ever going to be a moment to have a new poll, that moment is right now - we're in the middle of a crucial election campaign, and there potentially won't be another major election for three years. I've therefore taken the bull by the horns and commissioned a new poll.

I'd like to ask for your help, not only in funding this new poll, but potentially raising enough to run another poll in the future at a moment of maximum impact. So if you have £10 or £20 to spare, this could be a really good-value-for-money, high-impact way of positively influencing the political narrative in Scotland. Many thanks in advance to anyone who chooses to contribute.

Click here if you'd like to donate.

If you don't want to donate by card on the fundraiser page, there are two other options available.  Direct PayPal donations can be made to my PayPal email account, which is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

If you want to distinguish the donation from the general fundraising for Scot Goes Pop, just add a note saying "for the poll" or whatever.

Bank transfers are the other possibility.  If you'd like to do that, contact me for the details at my contact email address, which is:  icehouse.250@gmail.com

You now have less than 30 hours to ensure all the independence supporters in your life are registered to vote

In a sense the title says it all, but it perhaps doesn't quite capture the scale of the problem, because data from 2023 suggests 20% of the adult population of Scotland are either not registered to vote at all or are not registered at their current address.  Presumably people in the latter category might theoretically be able to vote in some cases but would be much less likely to.  So if you can persuade the independence supporters in your life to get registered by the deadline of 11.59 tomorrow night (the 20th), that really is half the battle.  Pay particular attention to 16 and 17 year olds, because the 2023 figures suggest *40%* of them were unregistered.

Remember that, as long as people are resident in Scotland, there are very few obstacles to be eligible to vote in a Scottish Parliament or local council election.  It's no longer necessary to be a citizen of a Commonwealth country - that rule was changed a few years ago, so Americans, Chinese people, etc, etc can all register to vote by tomorrow night as long as they are resident here.  The main group that is still partly excluded is prisoners, but several categories of prisoner can apparently vote - remand prisoners, civil prisoners, convicted but unsentenced criminals, prisoners sentenced for non-payment of a fine, prisoners sentenced for contempt of court, and convicted prisoners serving a term of less than 12 months.

The registration process is apparently fairly quick, although don't leave it until the absolute last minute.  The online form can be found HERE.