Analysis of the SNP's two spectacular by-election wins in Glasgow

Just a quick note to let you know I have an analysis piece at The National about yesterday's two local by-elections in Glasgow, both of which produced pretty spectacular wins for the SNP.  The article is accompanied by a photo of John Swinney in a novelty hat, so please do brace yourselves.  You can read it HERE.

Find Out Now! Find Out How? Find Out ZAP! WHAM! POW! Labour deservedly slump to just 22% in the first GB-wide poll since society's most vulnerable got thoroughly Kendalled

We all know there are people out there, sometimes quite poor people, sometimes even quite left-wing people, who resent anyone that doesn't work and regard the 'workshy' as the source of all society's ills.  When I was growing up, I had a great-aunt who was born in the early years of the 20th century, and who I always assumed to be a lifelong Labour voter, and her catchphrase (well, one of several) was "they neither work nor want".  In my view it's faulty thinking caused by what's in front of people's noses - anyone on a low income will know lots of people who are 'economically inactive', but very few of them will know any billionaires, so it's quite hard for them to visualise the fact that if you just got a few fabulously wealthy individuals to pay their fair share, the funds raised would dwarf anything you could get by hammering the disabled or those with mental health problems.

Nevertheless, the fact that the faulty thinking exists has given Labour hope that they could get away with savage cuts to benefit payments that not even the Tories ever attempted.  I've even seen the "Scotland isn't really more progressive than England" brigade on social media predicting that Liz Kendall's announcement would go down better in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK.

That presents us with an interesting test case, because it's unlikely the numbers are going to lie to us - if forcing the most vulnerable people to choose between work and starvation is something the typical man or woman on the street approves of, we should now see Labour's poll ratings start to recover.  But I must say that anecdotally, everything I've heard from the people around me has led me to conclude that the complete opposite is likely to happen - I've heard nothing but shock and outrage at what Kendall has done.  The first GB-wide poll to be conducted since the announcement is consistent with that interpretation...

GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 19th March 2025):

Reform UK 27% (-)

Labour 22% (-2)

Conservatives 21% (-)

Liberal Democrats 14% (+3)

Greens 11% (+1)

SNP 3% (-)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

22% equals Labour's record post-election low across all polling firms.  It's little more than half of the 40% vote share that the supposedly "unelectable left-wing extremist" Jeremy Corbyn led Labour to in the 2017 general election.

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Nicola Sturgeon cleared

Doubtless there's someone in Bath that will be devastated by this news, but most sensible people in the independence movement, both inside and outside the SNP, will be extremely relieved.  None of us know exactly what has gone on, but the idea that anything good (from an independence point of view) would have come out of the former SNP leader being faced with prolonged legal action is obviously for the birds.

The Peter Murrell case will still attract a lot of press interest, but now that he's left the SNP, and now that he's separated from Ms Sturgeon, and now that Ms Sturgeon is leaving the Scottish Parliament anyway, a firewall of sorts is in place and we're getting a lot closer to the point where we can look to the future for the independence cause without the constant dark whispers that the Branchform monster is going to turn up at any moment and destroy everything in sight.  That's a good thing, not a bad thing.

More analysis of the new Survation poll showing the pro-independence majority at Holyrood is on course to be retained

Just a quick note to let you know I have a new article at The National, discussing the new Survation poll which suggests the pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament is on course to be retained in next year's election.  In particular, I take a look at the implications of Reform UK's record high showing in the poll.  You can read the article HERE.

Stonking Survation survey shows the Scottish Parliament on course for another PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY next year - and the fieldwork took place BEFORE Labour hammered society's most vulnerable

From memory, I'm pretty sure that the previous Survation poll in early January was the only Scottish poll from any firm over the last few months that didn't show pro-independence parties on course to retain their parliamentary majority next year, so it's extremely heartening that has now been rectified and that all pollsters are in agreement.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions (Survation / Quantum Communications, 6th-13th March 2025):

SNP 34% (-1)

Labour 23% (+1)

Reform UK 17% (+4)

Conservatives 12% (-2)

Liberal Democrats 8% (-)

Greens 4% (-2)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:

SNP 29% (-2)

Labour 20% (-1)

Reform UK 16% (+3)

Conservatives 13% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)

Greens 8% (-1)

Alba 3% (+1)

Seats projection: SNP 55, Labour 19, Conservatives 17, Reform UK 14, Liberal Democrats 13, Greens 10, Alba 1

SNP + GREENS: 65 SEATS

ALL OTHER PARTIES: 64 SEATS

SNP + GREEN MAJORITY OF 1 SEAT

PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 66 SEATS

ANTI-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 63 SEATS

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 3 SEATS

You can guarantee that Alba HQ's resident young whippersnapper Robert Reid (who interestingly is never allowed to put his own name to any of his 'official' pronouncements) will be wound up like a clock to proclaim this poll as some sort of breakthrough.  As ever, don't shoot the messenger here, but there's no breakthrough at all, and 3% on the list is actually a poor showing for Alba that would be extremely unlikely to win them any seats.  The Diffley Partnership were commissioned to do the seats projection, and they must have some quirk in their model that awards one seat to Alba even on 3%, something that I'm almost certain wouldn't be the case if John Curtice was doing the projection.  

It's not totally inconceivable that could happen in the real world election, but it's very, very unlikely.  Small parties have picked up one seat on a low national vote share in the past, but that was because their vote was disproportionately concentrated in particular geographical areas - for example, Tommy Sheridan outperforming the SSP's national vote in Glasgow in 1999.  One of the reasons that Alba weren't even close to a list seat in 2021 is that their vote was pretty evenly spread across the country, and until that changes they'd need to be on 5% or 6% of the national vote to expect to make a seats breakthrough.  I'm wondering if the Diffley Partnership may have relied on Survation's regional breakdown to produce the Alba projection, and if so I think that's a questionable way of going about it, because the margin of error in any regional subsample is bound to be enormous.

A lot of the hype surrounding this poll is about Reform UK's showing, and actually that's fully justified, because no poll from any polling firm has produced numbers anything like this before.  Reform's 17% on the constituency vote is a full three points higher than their previous best of 14% (recorded by Norstat), while their 16% on the list vote also beats their former high watermark of 13% (recorded by both Norstat and Survation) by three points.  However, for as long as the SNP and Green vote holds up, Reform will look less like kingmakers and more like spoilers for the unionist side.

The in-built features of the British political system that have led to Labour's war against the most vulnerable

I've been asked quite a few times how I know that Chris "Mad Dog PRIMUS" McEleny actually instigated the Alba expulsion proceedings against me, rather than him just acting as the monkey to the Tas organ grinder.  My answer has always been that I don't know for sure that he was one of the instigators, but what I do know for sure is that expelling people is something that he really enjoys doing.  It gives him immense personal satisfaction and pleasure.  I could see it in his eyes during Colin Alexander's expulsion hearing, and I see much the same look in Liz Kendall's eyes as she talks about destroying the lives of disabled people, and people who suffer from mental health problems.  

For Starmerites, this is the stuff that really turns them on.  They didn't enter politics because they thought big business was a problem or because they wanted the wealthy to pay their fair share.  They entered politics because they feel an utterly irrational level of resentment and anger towards the most vulnerable in society.  When they look back on their careers, they want their legacy to be a "solution" to the "problem" of vulnerable people's existence.  Perhaps even a final solution, if Kim Leadbeater gets her way.

However, there are two other factors specific to the British political system which have greatly contributed to us reaching this point - 

1) The funding model for political parties.  When Rachel Reeves is presented with a choice between taxing the wealthy or getting the funds from disabled people instead, and she reacts as if the latter is the easy option and the former is utterly unthinkable, that must in part be due to Labour's reliance on wealthy donors.  If you had state funding for parties, or a cap on spending, or a cap on the size of donations, the range of policy options open to governments would suddenly and radically expand, because left-wing parties wouldn't have to fear losing their level playing-field if they genuinely pursued social justice.

2) The absence of proportional representation.  If we had PR, a socialist party to the left of Labour would be viable.  As is the case in Germany, it might take around 5-10% of the vote and thus take around 5-10% of the seats.  That would mean there would always be a price to pay for Labour in tacking too far to the right, because left-wing voters would have somewhere else to go.  As it is, Labour just ignore their left flank because most of the left are still sitting powerlessly within the Labour party itself.  (OK, that's an over-simplification, because the Green Party is stronger than ever before and Labour are also threatened by left-wing independents in certain areas.  But Starmer, Reeves and Kendall continue to think and act as if they needn't worry about the left.)

Can anyone imagine the "Rearm Britain" brigade sending troops to fight the Americans if Greenland is invaded?

Even twelve long years after I last posted there, I'm desperately sad to see what's happened to my old haunt of Political Betting, affectionately known as "Stormfront Lite" due to the excessive number of borderline-fascist nutjobs in the comments section.  It's now been completely taken over by "TSE", notorious for once inventing a family tragedy to avoid having to settle a private bet - which I suppose those with a sense of irony would say makes him the ideal man to edit the UK's best-known political betting site.  But it's actually not so much his welching that's the problem, it's the dismal standard of his political analysis and his puerile sense of humour, which I know he honestly thinks adds an "inimitability" to the site but is in reality making it too excruciating to read.  The saving grace is that there are often lengthy, thoughtful guest posts at the weekend, and it might almost be better if TSE just ran those and didn't even try to fill in the gaps in between.  His dreadful weekday posts are absolutely wrecking the site.

I believe he's a Tory member in Manchester or somewhere like that, and like so many clueless Tories south of the border he fancies himself as a bit of an expert on Scotland and Scottish politics.  His latest pronouncement is that Donald Trump's second term has killed Scottish independence stone dead - and he's tried to ward off suggestions that he's guilty of wishful thinking by pointing out that other people have in the past been guilty of wishful thinking on the subject.  But no, I'm afraid this is no more than yet another round of wishful thinking on stilts from a bog-standard Greater England imperialist perspective.

If he was actually immersed as most of us are in what is happening in Scotland, he'd realise that the issue of Trump is a red herring because by far the biggest barrier to independence at present is the SNP leadership's own reluctance to press the issue.  That is not an insurmountable barrier in the long run, but would anyone confidently bet on it being overcome during Trump's four-year term?  Most of us would regard it as an immense luxury if we could start thinking in terms of what external factors might get in the way of an SNP leadership that is seriously trying to win independence in the short-term.  (And any chance of a non-SNP route to independence has been completely ended by the insanely destructive behaviour of the Alba Party elite.)

By the time the independence campaign is fully back on track, it's likely that either there'll be a Democratic president and normal service will have been resumed, or JD Vance will be president, in which case independence will be a moot point because we might all want to take up Musk's offer of emigrating to another planet.

But in any case, TSE is making himself look more than faintly ridiculous by suggesting that campaigning for independence while Trump is president is like trying to do it during the Battle of Britain.  If we're supposed to believe that Trump's trade wars and his threats to invade Greenland are an existential threat on a par with 1940, one that puts an end to politics as usual for the foreseeable future, I'd suggest we'd first need to have a British government that recognises the existence of such a threat.  Instead, Starmer is still sycophantically paying homage to Trump as the leader of a Euro-Atlantic alliance and indeed as someone without whom no way forward in Ukraine is even possible.  If anything, all that does is make Scottish independence look more attractive, because the world order that Starmer is offering is plainly bankrupt.

There's now a Canadian Prime Minister who is using extremely belligerent language and talking of "the Americans" as an aggressor that his country needs to be defended from.  If Starmer was bold enough to verbally "stand with Canada" against the US threat, that might start to change perceptions in Scotland and make people feel that we've moved into an emergency situation which crowds out domestic issues like independence.  But I doubt if there's a single person reading this who can imagine Starmer actually having the guts to do that.  

Britain and other European countries are supposedly rearming so that they can act more independently in future, but does anyone seriously think that Starmer would send troops to fight against the US if there was a border incursion in Canada or a full-scale annexation of Greenland?  Of course he wouldn't.  He'd suddenly rediscover the realpolitik that he's thrown to the wind as far as Ukraine is concerned.  He'd say that a military solution was in the realms of fantasy given America's military strength.  He'd say a dispute between two valued allies was a matter of great regret, and he'd urge a diplomatic solution.  He'd argue that escalation must be avoided at all costs, and he'd suggest that until an amicable agreement can be reached, life wouldn't be so bad for those living under occupation.  After all, the Americans aren't a bad sort, and Donald is a great personal friend of his.

Not exactly the sort of Churchillian rhetoric that will inspire solidarity and put the Scottish independence cause on hold.

Counting down the five greatest moments in British comedy history

At NUMBER FIVE, it's..."Deny everything, Baldrick"

 

Holding steady at NUMBER FOUR, it's...Del Boy falls through the bar

 

Climbing to NUMBER THREE, it's...Bernard is both for and against National Service

   

So near and yet so far: at NUMBER TWO, it's...Morecambe and Wise meet André Previn

 

And a new entry, straight in at NUMBER ONE, it's...Kevin McKenna says the Alba Party's disgraced former General Secretary Chris McEleny is "likeable"

It's a form of instant immortality, Kevin.

In case you're wondering, he's not being ironic or sarcastic or even playful.  He actually means it.  There's a lengthy section later in the article in which he expresses his total mystification that this thoroughly "likeable" chap is so loathed within the Alba Party, and the only possibility he can even think of is that it might have something to do with anti-Catholic bigotry.  Hmmm.  Yes, Kevin, I'm sure that's a far more plausible explanation than the purges and the lying and the cheating and the abuses of power and the "Andy Swan" incident that landed him in Greenock Sheriff Court on a charge of threatening behaviour.  

Incidentally, Kevin, I'm a Catholic too.  If you go back far enough, two-thirds of my ancestry is Irish, and some of the rest of it is French-Canadian (also Catholic).  I went to Catholic schools all the way from the age of four to the age of seventeen.  I've been through baptism, first communion, confirmation, the full works.  And yet I was still one of the targets for the McEleny Purges last year.  Perhaps I should take some sort of action against McEleny for bigotry against his own kind?  After all, he can't possibly have had any other motivation...

There is, though, a serious point in all this, which is that Kevin's article has finally produced the smoking gun proving beyond all doubt that Ash Regan regards McEleny as an ally.  Some of Regan's supporters have until now been in denial about this, and have insisted that McEleny's vocal support for her is a one-way street.  I can understand why, because she might be a more attractive proposition if you could have her as leader without McEleny tagging along, but the quote makes clear that you can't, and that she is absolutely determined to bring him back in a senior position.

It really is an impossible choice for the remaining non-expelled Alba members.  Elect MacAskill and you'll still be lumbered with Tasmina and the Corri Nostra, but if you elect Regan you'll be re-lumbered with "Mad Dog".  I don't envy you that decision.

SNP storm to a belter of a Broxburn by-election win

The straws in the wind yesterday about Reform UK performing extremely strongly in the Broxburn by-election, both organisationally and in terms of voter response, made me wonder if they were getting close to outright victory territory. So it's something of a relief to discover that, for now at least, they're still stuck in the strong third place zone.

Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh by-election result on first preferences (13th March 2025):

SNP 31.8% (-10.1)
Labour 29.2% (-0.4)
Reform UK 18.7% (n/a)
Conservatives 7.5% (-10.2)
Liberal Democrats 5.3% (+1.6)
Greens 4.3% (-0.1)
Alba 3.1% (+1.7)

The percentage changes above are measured from the 2022 local elections, but there's actually been another by-election in the ward since then, which Labour won.  So that's an indication of how the weather seems to have turned back in the SNP's favour, albeit partly by default because Labour have become so unpopular since taking power in London.

That said, the SNP came extraordinarily close to losing yesterday's by-election on transfers in spite of their decent lead on first preferences.  They held off Labour by just seventeen votes on the final count.  

Assuming a uniform swing, the result is consistent with a small Scotland-wide SNP lead over Labour of around three percentage points.  (In reality, opinion polls suggest it's likely to be better than that.)

The Tories continue to suffer more than any other party from the Reform surge, which is logical enough.  There must now be a very real chance that they will slip to fourth place (or worse) at the Holyrood election next year.

Alba can console themselves that their vote has gone up rather than down, but this result isn't really any use at all to the Alba leadership, who need a vote of 6%+ in by-elections to try to hypnotise their members into thinking they're on course for list seats next year, which they clearly aren't.  However, just a word about the Alba candidate Frank Anderson, who as anyone who has encountered him will tell you, is one of the rapidly dwindling group of decent people in the upper reaches of the party.  He's an elected member of Alba's Appeals Committee, and at my own appeal against expulsion in January, he stood out a mile as literally the only person on the committee who seemed to be taking his responsibilities seriously and carefully weighing up the evidence in front of him (or lack of evidence), rather than just unthinkingly rubber-stamping whatever the leadership wanted.

Mr Anderson is currently standing for Local Government Convener in Alba's internal elections.  Although my horrific time as an Alba member is now mercifully over, all of us who care about decency and high standards in politics will be wishing him well - not least because his opponent is Chris Cullen, who exemplifies the absolute worst of machine politics.

I'm actually in this photo (at the top, towards the left). You've gotta love Josh - he's basically advertising his election campaign by saying "And here I am posing with just *some* of the people I've expelled as Disciplinary Chair. Chris told me to and I said 'sure, baby!'" https://t.co/MM9WYaplTV

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 13, 2025

Home births and surrogacy are weaponised in Alba's latest vicious round of internal "elections"

As has been discussed a number of times on this blog over the last year or so, one of the gaping plot-holes in the ludicrous claim that Alba is a "member-led party" is that it's absolutely impossible for members to democratically control the party unless they democratically control the Conference Committee, and they simply don't.  It's the annual conference that formally determines policy, and the Conference Committee is the gatekeeper of what can and cannot be discussed, voted upon and decided at conference.  The committee is not directly elected by rank-and-file party members.  Some of the people on it are elected by the tiny selectorate of a few dozen members who attend National Council, but others, including the committee chair Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, are directly appointed by the leadership.  Additionally, meetings of the committee are often flooded by office bearers who the leadership have unilaterally decreed "have a right to be there" even though nothing in the party constitution says they do.  When this extraordinary state of affairs has been challenged, the reply has been that the NEC has certain powers to "interpret the constitution", which essentially means the NEC has taken upon itself the right to see things in the constitution that simply aren't there.  Exactly the same excuse was of course used by the leadership as they ignored their own rule-book while pursuing the McEleny Purges last year.  The constitution is, bluntly, not worth the paper it's written on.  

However, it's been pointed out to me that it doesn't actually matter how many members of the committee are appointed or elected, or how many non-members of the committee its meetings are routinely flooded with, because by far the most important problem is that the committee never actually holds any votes anyway.  It's supposedly "consensus-led", which is code for "Tasmina makes the decisions and the committee is obliged to silently agree with her".  This guiding principle was exemplified by the legendary incident eighteen months ago when a motion was submitted proposing the establishment of a policy development committee, to try to get a grip on Alba's chaotic, ad hoc, top-down approach to policy formation.  Tasmina bellowed "THAT'S A BIG NO FROM ME!!!!", which apparently was supposed to be the end of the matter.

If any Alba members were naive enough to think that the spotlight that has been shone recently on the leadership's abuses of power would at least lead to a touch more circumspection from now on, the list of motions accepted by the committee for discussion at this month's conference should disabuse them of that notion.  It's a threadbare list of mostly very bland, sometimes utterly pointless motions, that makes Alba look like a party that has completely run out of ideas.  That's not entirely fair, because plenty of weightier motions of far greater consequence were submitted, but of course they were insta-blocked by the Tas Tyranny on the Conference Committee, with boilerplate excuses being given (some of which actually contradicted each other).

So which motions has Tas decreed are far more important than, for example, discussion of a policy development committee?  One of the motions that has made the cut, and I'm sure this is just an astounding coincidence, was submitted by none other than Shannon Donoghue, the notoriously immature thirtysomething daughter of the party's new General Secretary (or is she just the acting General Secretary?) Corri Wilson.  And it was seconded by Corri Wilson herself.  It calls for expectant mothers to be better informed of the benefits of home births, in order to relieve the burden on NHS maternity services.  

Everyone I've spoken to about this is unanimous that Shannon's motion is somewhere on a continuum between utterly redundant and downright harmful.  It's redundant in the sense that pregnant women are already fully informed about the home birth option, and it's harmful in the sense that home births can almost double the risk of adverse outcomes in a first pregnancy.  It would plainly be irresponsible to relieve the burden on the NHS by pushing too hard for women to select a non-clinical option that will result in a greater number of deaths.

The widespread view is that Shannon knows perfectly well that her motion adds no value whatsoever, and she's only doing this to give herself a readymade excuse to deliver a "moving personal experience" speech to the conference about her own home birth.  The speech will of course coincide with the running of the pay-per-vote "election" for Ordinary NEC Members, in which Shannon is a candidate.  She seems to have calculated that making an "emotional connection" with conference delegates is her ticket to electoral success.

But isn't that a bit of an amateurish way of doing it, Shannon?  If you want to get on the NEC that badly, why not just bulk-buy a few dozen votes like You-Know-Who did last time around?  That's what the system is there for, surely?  

Maybe Shannon is a bit short of cash at the moment, who knows. Meanwhile, there's an 'r' in the month, so she must have been breaching Alba's Code of Conduct yet again - behaviour which would, if equal treatment was applied, lead to her being hauled before the Disciplinary Committee to face possible expulsion from the party.  The social media policy is absolutely explicit that Alba members are forbidden to "target individuals" in social media posts, regardless of whether those individuals are current members of the party or not.  And yet behold...

I actually can’t stomach it any more.

These randoms on X claiming to know what Alex would have wanted yet you have his family and those closest to him, all publicly supporting Kenny.

How about you stop using the man’s name and actually get somewhere on your own merit?

— Shannon Donoghue (@shannon_talks_) March 10, 2025

You know it’s toxic as f**k when Denise is involved.

The woman inserts herself into EVERYTHING. The behaviour is troublesome. https://t.co/qUN6Xrp1mR

— Shannon Donoghue (@shannon_talks_) March 10, 2025

Exactly this. Even for Denise is a new low. https://t.co/aIlCC4ng2R

— Shannon Donoghue (@shannon_talks_) March 10, 2025

The article was in response to the article Ash put out claiming Alex would want her with some very vile comments about Kenny. Denise doing a Denise and not living in the real world while dangerously twisting reality.

— Shannon Donoghue (@shannon_talks_) March 11, 2025

No im not attacking Denise. I can’t stand Denise for her behaviour and what’s she’s done. The difference with you and me, is I just say it.

— Shannon Donoghue (@shannon_talks_) March 11, 2025

And you want to ask those people’s opinions on Denise now…. https://t.co/BLV8d8tv28

— Shannon Donoghue (@shannon_talks_) March 11, 2025

While we might chortle at the spectacular lack of self-awareness of someone lecturing others on the need to "get somewhere on their own merit" when she herself owes her position on several committees to the fact that her mother is a senior party functionary, and while we might marvel at the sheer brazenness with which she regularly breaches the Code of Conduct knowing her mum's status will always protect her, there is of course a deadly serious point here.  Shannon is one of the people who jointly submitted the initial complaint against me which ultimately led to my expulsion from Alba.  Although the disciplinary referral document drawn up by Chris McEleny was ludicrously vague about what I was supposed to have done wrong, one of the few points of specificity was that I was being charged with having breached the social media policy - the very thing that Shannon, one of the complainers, regards as very much an optional extra in her own life.  

Alba really is nothing more than a racket set up for the benefit of a few elite families and friends.  My advice to Alba members is to either put an end to that racket by means of an internal democratic revolution, or if that proves to be impossible (as I strongly suspect that it will) stop wasting your time on a party that is going absolutely nowhere and start seeking more useful avenues for pursuing independence.

Incidentally, not to be outdone by Shannon, one of the dividing lines drawn by the disgraced Chris McEleny (aka "that's Prime Dog MADDUS to you") in his self-indulgent but doomed campaign to be depute leader is a ban on surrogacy.  Although I don't necessarily disagree with that in principle, it's an odd choice of policy to run on, given that McEleny concedes himself that Holyrood has no power to implement a ban.  But it's been pointed out to me that McEleny's opponent Neale Hanvey is known to have attempted surrogacy with his partner on three occasions.  Is that why McEleny is doing it?  Given what we know about the nature of Alba internal politics, that possibility certainly cannot be ruled out.  What a lovely kind fluffy party I used to be a member of, to be sure.