Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Sneak preview of the Scottish Parliament numbers from Survation - SNP appear to have 12-point lead over Labour

As far as I know, the Holyrood numbers from the Survation poll have not yet been officially released, but the crossbreaks in the data tables seem to give the game away.  I've had to calculate the percentages manually.  I can't guarantee these will be the headline numbers, because there may be some filter yet to be applied.  But I suspect these are pretty much bang on the money.

Constituency ballot:

SNP 34.7%
Labour 22.6%
Reform UK 13.7%
Conservatives 13.4%
Liberal Democrats 8.3%
Greens 5.4%
Alba 1.4%

Regional list ballot:

SNP 30.6%
Labour 21.1%
Reform UK 13.8%
Conservatives 13.6%
Liberal Democrats 10.2%
Greens 8.2%
Alba 2.2%

Seats projection: SNP 53, Labour 24, Reform UK 16, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 11, Greens 9

So not quite a pro-independence majority this time, but very close - pro-indy parties in combination would have 62 seats, and unionist parties would have 67.

And if I may very gently adapt Chris McEleny's favourite turn of phrase, this is "yet another poll" showing Alba firmly on course for zero seats in 2026.  They wouldn't even be anywhere close to winning a seat.

The SNP *treble* their lead over Labour in the space of just two months, says sizzling Survation survey - and the Scottish Tories have now slumped to *fourth* place

It's an odd thing - I can remember constantly saying in 2023 that Survation were producing more favourable results for the SNP than other firms, and yet since the general election in July we've seen the opposite pattern.  Survation have failed to show the SNP opening up clear water in Westminster voting intentions in the way that other firms have.

Until now.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Survation):

SNP 33% (+2)
Labour 24% (-4)
Reform UK 15% (+2)
Conservatives 13% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+3)
Greens 4% (-1)

Seats projection: SNP 30, Labour 18, Liberal Democrats 6, Conservatives 3

The seats projection for Labour isn't quite as grim as we've seen in polls from other firms, but that's because they're just above the tipping point at which they would fall away to single digits.  Reform UK don't take any seats (yet) because on something approaching a uniform swing they wouldn't have the necessary geographical concentrations of support.

The poll seems to have been commissioned by either True North or the Holyrood Sources podcast (or are those one and the same thing?), but there's no sign from them of the fieldwork dates, and Survation's own website seems to be down at the moment.  However, it's billed as the first Scottish poll of 2025, so the fieldwork must have been relatively recent.

The threat to the Tories is now existential as YouGov poll shows they have been overtaken by Reform UK - while the SNP enjoy a double-digit lead in the Scottish subsample

*puts on Canadian accent*

It's another *terrrrr*-ible morning for the Conservative Party.

Although even that old joke (which I've been doing since circa-2009) doesn't seem to quite capture the gravity of the situation anymore, because when you have a credible pollster like YouGov showing that the Tories are no longer the leading right-wing force, the threat to the party is clearly existential in nature.  The first-past-the-post voting system allows very little scope for pluralism on any ideological pole.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 12th-13th January 2025):

Labour 26%
Reform UK 25%
Conservatives 22%
Liberal Democrats 14%
Greens 8%
SNP 3%
Plaid Cymru 1%

Scottish subsample: SNP 33%, Labour 23%, Reform UK 18%, Conservatives 11%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Greens 7%

When I sat down to write this blogpost, it suddenly occurred to me it's been aaaaaaages since I last did my customary spiel about YouGov's Scottish subsamples being of more interest than those from other firms (because they seem to be correctly structured and weighted).  It turns out there's a straightforward reason for it being so long - this is the first YouGov voting intention poll since the general election six months ago. That seems incredible when you bear in mind that there was a time when YouGov used to conduct a poll every single day (funded by the Sun newspaper, if I recall).

So although it's technically the case that YouGov have just joined Deltapoll, Opinium and More In Common in showing Reform on a new post-rebrand high watermark, that fact has to be treated with caution because it's impossible to know for sure how Reform would have been faring in YouGov polls towards the end of last year.

*  *  *

Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Monday, January 13, 2025

Back To The Future: I have rejoined the SNP

There's a well-worn political cliché, which may or may not have been started by Ronald Reagan after his defection from the Democrats to the Republicans, that "I did not leave my party, my party left me".  Rarely, though, have those words been quite so literally true as they are in my own case.  I did not leave the Alba Party, the Alba Party left me.  I was committed to Alba, I was working away as an elected member of three of its national committees until September...and then they suddenly told me to f*** off because I wasn't quite slavishly obedient enough to pretend that two plus two equals five.  So nobody in Alba can have any complaints at all about what I am about to say - I have rejoined the Scottish National Party, which I was previously a member of between 2014 and 2021.  And as long as the SNP allow me to remain a member, yes, that does of course mean I will be voting "both votes SNP" in May 2026.  

Now, I am in no way naive about the decision I have just made.  There have been crackdowns on freedom of speech within the SNP, both before and after my own time as a member, and those have sometimes been almost as bad as the crackdowns within Alba.  (I say 'almost' as bad because what has happened in Alba has undoubtedly been worse.)  So it's perfectly possible that I could end up speaking my mind about what I see as the best way forward for the SNP and for Scotland, and find "disciplinary" action being taken against me again, and if that happens I'll just have to find a Plan B - or I suppose it would be Plan C by that stage.  But I very much hope I can now just get on with pressing for independence on an ongoing basis as a loyal member of the SNP.  I would just note that in my seven previous years as an SNP member, I made many outspoken comments on this blog, but in complete contrast to Alba, the SNP actually allowed me to do that and I didn't start receiving sinister emails from the heavy mob.  So I'll just have to hope I'm equally fortunate the second time around.

I would imagine that when I joined Alba in 2021, I posted the join link on this blog in case anyone wanted to follow my example, and I've sincerely apologised for that, because I had no idea of the authoritarian freak show I was getting caught up in.  So although I will now post the link to join the SNP (and here it is) in case anyone else is thinking it's time to work for change inside the SNP rather than outside it, please make sure you're doing it for your own reasons and have thought carefully about the pros and cons.  On your own head be it!

One advantage of joining, of course, is that you'd get a vote when a leadership election eventually comes up.  It's no secret that if I'd been an SNP member in March 2023, I would have given a higher preference vote to Kate Forbes than to Humza Yousaf, but contrary to some people's lazy assumptions that's not because I'm "centre-right" - in fact in many respects I'm probably politically closer to Yousaf than to Forbes.  But Yousaf was just the wrong man, at the wrong time, and he was being installed by the ruling faction for all the wrong reasons.  I feel a lot more at ease with the SNP under the Swinney/Forbes leadership, and if it was just a question of who would make the best government, this current team would be a no-brainer.  It's not like that, though, the purpose of the SNP is supposed to be to actually deliver independence, and although I'll just be a drop in the ocean as one member out of tens of thousands, I will be arguing the case for the SNP to start accepting that 50% + 1 support for Yes is enough and to push for the endgame on independence on that basis, rather than waiting endlessly for some mythical "overwhelming" support that is highly unlikely to ever arrive.  

By the way, a small number of people have contacted me in recent days to say they're leaving Alba, not necessarily just because of what happened to me, but that was a contributory factor.  If you do leave Alba, for whatever reason, please ensure that you actually cancel your direct debit, because I've sat and listened to Chris McEleny boasting that "once you've got someone on direct debit, you've got them for life, nobody ever bothers cancelling".  The plan seems to be to get as many members onto direct debit as possible, and only then announce that the subscription fee is being hiked.  So please don't allow yourself to be fleeced by the world's most cynical man.

For my part, I'm just relieved to have a political home once again, and we'll see how it goes.

Reform UK overtake the Tories in an Opinium poll for the first time since their post-Brexit rebrand

Opinium are one of the firms that showed the Brexit Party with an outright lead during their purple patch in mid-2019, so technically this is not an all-time high for Reform, who are legally a direct continuation of the Brexit Party.  But 24% is the best they've done with Opinium since their rebrand, and it's also the first time they've overtaken the Tories in an Opinium poll since then.

GB-wide voting intentions (Opinium, 8th-10th January 2025):

Labour 29% (-)
Reform UK 24% (+2)
Conservatives 23% (-)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-1)
Greens 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Four pollsters have reported in 2025 so far, and three of them have shown Reform at a new high watermark.  Ironically, the only one that didn't is Find Out Now, which was nevertheless the one that put Reform in a joint lead with Labour.

There was some discussion on yesterday's thread about how we can't pin all our hopes for independence on a Farage premiership, because that might never happen, it might not have the effect we think it will, etc, etc.  Well, that's fine, but if we're going to achieve independence in a different way, step 1 (and it'll be the most difficult step of all) will be to persuade John Swinney, and indeed Kate Forbes, to drop the nonsense about how independence can only happen with "overwhelming" support and to revert to seeking a simple 50% + 1 majority for Yes.  If they insist upon the "overwhelming" route, that's certainly only ever going to happen with a massive disruptive event like a Reform victory, which leads liberal No voters to completely reassess their view of the UK.  The idea that the SNP "demonstrating competence in government" would in itself push independence support to 65% is for the birds.

*  *  *

Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Sunday, January 12, 2025

Where would the independence movement be after six more years of not particularly doing anything under John Swinney?

So a few thoughts about John Swinney's announcement that he intends to stay on until 2031, assuming the SNP win the Holyrood election next year - 

* This shouldn't necessarily be taken ultra-literally.  In many ways it feels similar to when Tony Blair  announced that he was going to see out a full third term, but of course in the end Blair stepped down midway through the third term.  The feeling is that a leader has to say they intend to serve a full term otherwise they're already fighting the election as a lame duck.  But the logic still points to Swinney stepping down before 2031, otherwise the question would be - will he stand down one month before the 2031 election or one month after?  Neither of those options makes any sense.  You'd always want to give your successor time to bed in, and then face the electorate, so some time between 2027 and 2030 would be much more sensible.

* Swinney has done better in the polls than I expected him to.  That may be partly due to his good sense in semi-dispensing with Yousaf's factionalism and appointing Kate Forbes as his deputy, but nevertheless it's fair to say a few more years of Swinney doesn't fill me with quite the dismay it once would have done - except of course for the elephant in the room.  It's great that the SNP are recovering in the polls, it's great that they now have a chance of rescuing the pro-indy majority in 2026, but the SNP were not set up to seek power for its own sake.  Their purpose in seeking power is supposed to be to use it to deliver independence.  Swinney did not say, as far as I'm aware, that he wanted to stay on for six more years to deliver independence.  He seems to be imagining himself handing on the baton of devolved government to someone else in 2031.

* Swinney of course has long since surrendered to the Westminster argument that a simple majority is not enough for Scotland to become an independent country - he says that will only happen if there is "overwhelming" support.  But even if we give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he imagines himself to be genuinely working towards that "overwhelming" support, what will he actually do with it once he's got it?  Suppose, for example, he gets lucky, Farage becomes Prime Minister and tries to abolish the Scottish Parliament and drives support for independence up to hitherto undreamed of levels.  I've never bought into the argument that the way to win independence is to go over the heads of Westminster and seek international recognition, for the simple reason that other countries would shrug and turn away - but the abolition of devolution might just be an exception to that general rule.  Although theoretically devolution is an internal matter for the UK, there are precedents (for example Kosovo) of countries taking a dim view of long-standing autonomy being stripped away from a stateless people.  But would Swinney be assertive enough to try to nurture that and exploit it?  Given what we know of his character, it's hard to imagine.

* The one good thing that might come out of this announcement would be if it gives Stephen Flynn pause for thought about whether it's worth his while to switch to Holyrood and trigger a totally unnecessary by-election in Aberdeen South.  I don't believe that Flynn would be a sensible choice to replace Swinney anyway - he's a bit too belligerent for some segments of the electorate.

*  *  *

Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Friday, January 10, 2025

THE ALBA FILES, Part 1: 'A McCarthyite atmosphere', 'trial by vagueness', 'the ugly lust for revenge of an authoritarian leadership' - read the full text of the defence document I submitted prior to my Alba disciplinary hearing in December

Welcome to a new series of articles on Scot Goes Pop entitled 'THE ALBA FILES' (before anyone panics, it's only a name).  Now that I'm irrevocably out of Alba and no longer owe any loyalty to the party, I'm going to try to help Alba members make up their own minds about the state of their own party by putting as much information as realistically possible into the public domain.  Baby steps to begin with - I'm going to start with the full text of my own defence document submitted in advance of my "disciplinary" hearing in early December.  For privacy reasons, I've made one very small alteration to the text - I've switched to using the name "Colin Alexander", because his real name (which I used in the submitted document) is not in the public domain as far as I know.  "Colin Alexander" was a pseudonym he used in the guest post he wrote for the late Iain Lawson's blog.  As it turned out, being involved in guest posts for the Iain Lawson blog was just about the most dangerous activity for Alba members - the suspension/expulsion rate as a result of doing so was exceptionally high.

WRITTEN SUBMISSION IN RESPONSE TO DISCIPLINARY REFERRAL 

My name is James Kelly and I have been a paid-up member of the Alba Party since it was created in the spring of 2021, almost four years ago now.  My monthly subscription fee has continued to be regularly deducted from my bank account, even though I have been arbitrarily suspended from the party at the whim of the General Secretary for the last two months, and denied absolutely all of the rights of membership that the fee is supposed to be in exchange for.  I cannot even access the party website.  That state of affairs is self-evidently outrageous and indefensible.

In happier days, I was an elected member of this party's National Executive Committee between September 2021 and October 2022, during which time I also served on the Finance & Audit Committee.  I was an elected member of the Appeals Committee between February 2023 and January 2024.  As far as I am aware, I am still to this day a member of the Disciplinary Committee and the Finance & Audit Committee, having been elected to those bodies in January of this year, although obviously that has been interrupted by Mr McEleny's decision to arbitrarily suspend my party membership.  I was also elected in January to the Constitution Review Group (CRG), although several weeks before my party membership was suspended, I was informed out of the blue by Mr McEleny that the NEC had removed me from that elected position - an unconstitutional decision that the NEC quite simply had no power to take.  Additionally, I was elected as the Organiser of North Lanarkshire LACU earlier this year.

Although I have strong suspicions about the real reasons for the remarkably casual decision to suspend me and refer me to the Disciplinary Committee (those suspicions relate to the leadership's determination to snuff out any serious talk of internal democratisation of the party, and also to an attempt by at least two well-connected individuals to abuse the disciplinary machinery as a way of furthering their campaign of bullying against me), I am none the wiser as to the 'official' reasons.  Other members of the Disciplinary Committee must be equally baffled - unless of course they have been supplied with information that has been withheld from me, in which case due process would dictate that they will be compelled to completely set aside that information in considering the complaint.  But assuming that they only possess the same document that I was sent, described variously as the "disciplinary report" or the "disciplinary referral", they like me will have next to no information on Mr McEleny's official reasons for thinking I should actually be facing this hearing.  The document is hopelessly deficient and defective in numerous respects - 

1) It alleges that I have breached the "social media policy" and specifically references a section of that policy about "being abusive", and yet not a single social media post is linked to or referred to.  There is not even the vaguest hint of what the content of the relevant social media posts was, or on what grounds Mr McEleny formed his alleged belief that they were "abusive".  Given that my Twitter profile states that I have posted more than 17,900 tweets since I joined the site in early 2009, Mr McEleny appears to be inviting members of the committee to play guessing games about what on earth he might be referring to, and even more disgracefully he appears to be inviting me to play guessing games in formulating my defence.  He is trying to set me a task he knows to be utterly impossible.  Realistically, this means that he is not being honest about having found abusive social media posts (if he had done, he would undoubtedly have quoted them or linked to them - it would have been the work of seconds), and is hoping committee members may fill in the gaps for him by trawling through my 17,900 tweets and "getting lucky" with one or two.  I am extremely confident that if they attempt to go down that road, they will not "get lucky", because to the very best of my recollection I have *never* been abusive on social media.  However, let me be clear - if by any chance I am ambushed at the hearing with questions about specific tweets that were not brought to my attention at any point before the hearing starts, I will refuse to engage with those questions, and quite rightly so.  Due process requires me to be fully informed of what I am actually accused of in advance so I can put together a proper and considered defence.  The committee will have no business upholding a complaint based on allegations that were not mentioned to me until a last second ambush.

 2) In contrast to the complete absence of information about which social media posts are being referred to, the document does link in an "update" to five specific blogposts.  However, the only clue as to the relevance of mentioning these blogposts is the observation that "Mr Kelly took to...his blog to discuss internal party business".  None of the four sections of the Code of Conduct which have allegedly been breached even refer to (let alone forbid) the discussing of internal party business, so there is no clue whatsoever as to what part of the content of the blogposts Mr McEleny thinks are breaches, or in what way he is alleging they are breaches.  Once again, Mr McEleny is inviting committee members to play guessing games or to fill in the gaps for him, and once again I must point out that due process means that the committee simply cannot proceed in that way.  If I am suddenly ambushed with more specific allegations on the night of the hearing, I will refuse to engage, and the committee will have no right (or not if due process is applied) to uphold a complaint on the basis of a last-second infusion of specificity.

3) The narrative explanation of how the complaint came about begins with some members of the Constitution Review Group supposedly alleging that my April blogpost 'The case against a small political party treating its own members as the enemy' constituted a "breach of trust" and "undermined the work of the CRG".  But the narrative then swiftly moves on to the vaguer allegations about aspects of my conduct that supposedly occurred much later.  It is far from clear whether the present disciplinary referral relates only to the later vague allegations, or whether the "breach of trust" allegation also forms part of the case against me.  It is admittedly hard to see how it can do, because none of the four sections of the Code of Conduct alleged to have been breached mention anything at all about breaches of trust or confidentiality.  Nevertheless, the fact that I have been left unsure as to what is and what is not part of the present case against me is plainly an absurd situation.

4) If I am forced to err on the side of caution by assuming that the "breach of trust" allegation may form part of the current case against me, there is yet again no information provided to enable the committee to proceed with any meaningful deliberations on that issue or to enable me to put forward a meaningful defence.  It's extraordinary that I have to point this out, but Mr McEleny is alleging that I have disclosed confidential information, but hasn't actually bothered to specify what that confidential information is.  He does link to the blogpost in which the breach of confidentiality is alleged to have taken place, but that is of very little help, because the blogpost makes clear at the outset that I am bound by confidentiality rules and will therefore not be discussing the work of the CRG.  Nowhere in the blogpost do I make any statements about what was discussed at meetings of the CRG, or what decisions were reached at those meetings.  So the only possibility left is that Mr McEleny is alleging that I revealed confidential information by some extremely indirect means, but if that's the case the onus is on him to explain in what form I did that, what that information was, and what evidence he has that the information ever existed in the first place and was covered by confidentiality rules.  Does it for example appear in minutes of meetings of the CRG?  If so, why didn't he provide the relevant quotes from those minutes?  Does it feature in secret recordings of meetings that Mr McEleny can supply?  That is the kind of bar he would have to clear if he really wants to advance the "breach of trust" argument, but he has not even come close to clearing it.  It is frankly nothing short of astounding that he hasn't even bothered to mention what secret information the individuals who made the initial complaint felt I had disclosed.  Mr McEleny has literally provided zero supporting evidence to support the allegation of a breach of trust, and in those circumstances I must respectfully point out to committee members that they literally have no choice but to dismiss that allegation.  If they do not, they will have abandoned any semblance of due process and will have brought Alba's disciplinary procedures into disrepute.  And again, if the allegations suddenly and magically become more specific once the hearing is actually underway, that will make no difference, because I will not have had the proper opportunity to submit a considered defence.

5) The four sections of the Code of Conduct allegedly breached refer to "injuring the party" or members of the party.  Mr McEleny has wholly failed to explain in what way he believes I have caused "injury".  They refer to an expectation that Alba members will conduct themselves to "high standards of decency".  Mr McEleny has wholly failed to explain in what way he believes I have fallen short of high standards of decency.  They refer to a requirement that Alba members should use social media "responsibly".  Mr McEleny has wholly failed to explain in what way he believes I have used social media "irresponsibly".

Mr McEleny is essentially inviting the Disciplinary Committee to conduct a "trial by vagueness" and to overlook the almost total lack of detail and supporting evidence, simply because of a nod and a wink from him and the rest of the leadership (perhaps considerably more than a nod and a wink) that they want the complaint upheld and will be displeased with committee members if it is not.  The committee should tell Mr McEleny in no uncertain terms that they refuse to play that game.  Unfortunately, though, as a member of the Disciplinary Committee myself, I know as well as any other committee member that 2024 has seen extraordinarily severe punishments meted out for minor infractions or even in cases where there has been no discernible wrongdoing whatsoever.  In the last few months, there have been at least two outright expulsions from Alba and at least one suspension of six months.  That contrasts with Alex Salmond's twenty years as leader of the SNP in which by all accounts only one expulsion occurred, and that was for the extremely serious reason of the individual in question being found to have committed decades of domestic violence and abuse.  To put it mildly, that is not a favourable comparison for the Alba Party, and is not one that we as members of the Disciplinary Committee can take any pride in.  

A McCarthyite atmosphere has taken grip of the committee under its present composition, and to some extent that has been fostered by the ongoing attitude of Mr McEleny himself.  At the start of this year, he explicitly demanded that the committee expel Colin Alexander from the party because of an utterly harmless Twitter joke at the expense of Mr McEleny (touchy, much?), and because Mr Alexander had written a blogpost raising legitimate concerns about the conduct of Alba's internal elections in autumn 2023.  Extraordinarily, the committee caved in to Mr McEleny's wholly inappropriate demand and expelled Mr Alexander.  Mr McEleny then demanded that punitive action be taken against the brave whistleblower Denise Somerville, who had uncovered potential evidence of irregularities in the same internal elections.  Shamefully, the committee caved in to Mr McEleny's outrageous demand and suspended Ms Somerville for six months, without even backdating that penalty to take into account the period of arbitrary suspension she had already suffered at Mr McEleny's whim.  And then Mr McEleny demanded punitive action against Geoff Bush for giving an entirely inoffensive interview to The National about the need for cooperation and ecumenicism between pro-independence parties.  To my absolute astonishment, the convener of the committee "spontaneously" announced midway during the hearing, after a painfully long pause, that he thought Mr Bush should be expelled from the party.  Members of the committee may recall that my shock at hearing the word "expulsion" was both immediate and audible.  And yet mysteriously the majority of the committee instantly fell into line with the convener's wish, in spite of the fact that none of them seemed to be able to articulate why they were doing so.  A cynic might almost wonder if some sort of informal 'briefing' had occurred before the meeting.

The pattern is clear: the disciplinary procedure is not being used in the proper manner to tackle genuine wrongdoing, but is instead being cynically abused to crack down on legitimate dissent against the leadership and individuals close to the leadership.  This state of affairs need not have been allowed to develop if members of the Disciplinary Committee had actually fulfilled their roles conscientiously, but instead the leadership seem to have some sort of improper hold over some (not all) of them.  This dismal pattern is continuing in my own case, where the leadership's underlying aim seems to be to take extreme revenge against me because I took a prolonged stand in favour of internal democratisation of the party, and publicly called into question whether the repeated boasts that Alba in its current form is a "member-led party" really stack up.  That is, frankly, a point that Alba members have every right to ponder and debate.  I suspect there's also a strong element of Ms Shannon Donoghue and her partner Mr Chris Cullen seeking revenge against me for more personal reasons, because I stood up to their repeated bullying attempts at the in-person CRG meetings, and subsequently on Twitter.

At the conclusion of one of the disciplinary hearings earlier this year, the committee convener tried to wrap things up with a little monologue, insisting we all had to remember that whatever disagreements might occur between us during meetings, we were all united by being independence supporters and that was the really important thing.  As I said to him at the time, those words rang extremely hollow, because he had only just cruelly trampled all over decent independence supporters by expelling or suspending them, for no good reason other than to satisfy the ugly lust for revenge of an authoritarian leadership. I trust the convener will have enough sense of shame to refrain from launching into a similar monologue if he plays any part in upholding the farcically vague complaint against me, one that is so insubstantial that it practically ceases to exist the more you look at it.

But my even fonder hope is that the scenario will not even arise, because the committee will at long last take a stand against the prolonged pattern of injustice by refusing to uphold this latest bogus and maliciously-motivated complaint.  That way Alba might belatedly start to become a worthy successor to the Salmond-era SNP, in which all decent independence supporters were welcome, in which nobody was expelled without exceptionally good cause, and in which all members could express their views freely without constant fear of arbitrary punishment.  

In closing, I want to make some general observations about Alba's social media policy, which is an inspiring document due to its fearless commitment to freedom of speech - 

"We want debate and discussion to flourish on our channels and will encourage feedback wherever appropriate"

That could not be further removed from Christina Hendry's and Chris Cullen's oft-rehearsed conception of Alba as a sort of secret society in which members have an absolute duty to remain silent about their own views at all times, except possibly behind closed doors (but even there conditions would apply).  I must be honest here and say I much prefer the social media policy's more liberal vision of what Alba is, and I'm relieved that's the one that has been given constitutional force.  But it's little wonder that there's so much puzzlement and consternation in Alba's ranks that Mr McEleny and the Disciplinary Committee have repeatedly breached both the spirit and the letter of the social media policy by taking extreme steps, up to and including expulsion, to prevent members from exercising their right to engage in "flourishing debate and discussion". 

Mr McEleny's reply might be that the social media policy to some extent contradicts itself by also giving examples of how freedom of speech might in some cases be limited.  But that being the case, the devil is obviously in the interpretation.  The simplest way to judge how the social media policy is being interpreted in practice, and where the true balance lies between freedom of speech and any restrictions, is to look at the example set by leading members of the party.  Here are some tweets posted by very senior Alba members in recent months - 

Zulfikar Sheikh, 3rd October 2024: "Zionist J talks such garbage."

(Note: "J" is a reference to the journalist Julia Hartley-Brewer.)

Zulfikar Sheikh, 8th September 2024: "It all started when her wee gang couldn't get their way."

(Note: The 'her' referred to is Denise Findlay, who was the elected Organisation Convener of the Alba Party less than a year prior to Mr Sheikh posting his tweet.  The 'wee gang' seemingly refers to other prominent and highly respected former members of our party.)

Zulfikar Sheikh, 11th September 2024: "Truth is coming out now for the wee gang of malcontents...they were obviously planning all along, totally disgraceful."

Zulfikar Sheikh, 11th September 2024: "When all fails this is the special language they adopt...ignore the wee gang."

Zulfikar Sheikh, 11th September 2024: "It's always the usual suspects of the wee gang of malcontents.  They obviously have too much free time."

Zulfikar Sheikh, 30th October 2024: "This man has no shame, no compassion for the man that he talks about, without Alex, Swinney & his wee gang would be nobody's.  We haven't forgotten what you & your pals try to do to him, just will be done very very soon."

Chris McEleny, 21st November 2024: "Define irony: Mhairi Black, who spent 10 years at Westminster with her snout in the Kit Kat trough"

Chris McEleny, 14th November 2024: "How creepy.  Some wee social media weirdo at the Scottish Parliament actually zooms in on women's footwear to brief the press."

Shannon Donoghue, 19th May 2024: "No it's not wrong, and if I'm really honest, I'm sick of the wee victim act.  I've seen Eva first hand at conferences with the wee gang.  She was privy to info being on NEC that Grangemouth was a key seat for them.  The only one lacking unity is her."

(Note: "Eva" is a reference to Eva Comrie, who was our party's elected Equalities Convener just weeks before Ms Donoghue posted her tweet.)

Shannon Donoghue, 6th July 2024: "You, is the simple answer. You and the wee gangs attempt to tarnish the party. You do more damage to Indy than good. Disgraceful."

(Note: The above was a *direct reply* to Denise Findlay, our party's former elected Organisation Convener.)

Shannon Donoghue, 6th July 2024: "James Kelly really tweeting about self-awareness. The gift that keeps on giving."

Yvonne Ridley, 10th September 2024: "A "wee gang of malcontents" that's one way of describing a treacherous bunch of mean girls & frit blokes whose ambitions far outweighed their abilities. You're all fighting like ferrets in a sack right now, threatening to sue each other over an App that involves dodgy dealings & Israeli technology."

Yvonne Ridley, 10th September 2024: "The Aye App - @gracebrod1e @Scotpol1314 @mickbrick54 @geoffbush they all invested in it. I think @LeanneTervit Schemes for Indy was supposed to be the first beneficiary but she reckons she was shafted. Apart from sleepless nights over treachery, I lost nothing."

Yvonne Ridley also notoriously posted a shameful tweet in early 2023 claiming that a vote for the SNP was a vote for Jimmy Savile - admittedly she later seemed to delete it, but she certainly didn't face any disciplinary action for it.

All of the above tweets would technically, on a literal reading, fall foul of the line in the social media policy about the "targeting of individuals", and I must admit none of the tweets are remotely to my own taste.  The kind of nasty language these people have used is just not my cup of tea, and I personally do take pride in maintaining a much higher standard of respectful behaviour on social media than that of Ms Ridley, Ms Donoghue, Mr McEleny and Mr Sheikh.  That said, I think Alba have been extremely wise in using a minimalist interpretation of the "abusive behaviour"/"targeting of individuals" language, thus allowing these four senior people to be deemed to have stayed within the strictures of the social media policy.  It's entirely sensible that Alba's interpretation of the policy has given far greater weight to the provision guaranteeing freedom of speech.  However, that does mean that Mr McEleny's risible attempts to apply a completely different standard to lowlier figures such as myself must by definition be doomed to failure.

We also mustn't lose sight of the even more colourful example of social media behaviour that has been set by Mr Stuart Campbell, who is technically not an Alba member, but is the celebrated author of the party's very own "Wee Alba Book" and is regarded by many as the party's de facto spiritual godfather.  The Alba leadership have regularly praised him to the skies as a moral lodestar and shining example to us all, describing him on one memorable occasion without any apparent sense of irony as a "man of unimpeachable integrity".  So let's take a quick look at Mr Campbell's standard of behaviour on social media, which it's safe to assume the Alba leadership must regard as effortlessly consistent with the party's social media policy.  

Stuart Campbell, 16th November 2024: "I don't keep having to delete my tweets because I've made an absolute c*nt of myself like Narinder does."

Stuart Campbell, 18th November 2024: "F*ck off, *unt."

Stuart Campbell, 11th November 2024: "I've repeatedly said it's a genocide. He's a liar as well as a stupid c*nt."

Stuart Campbell, 15th October 2024: "He admitted no such thing, ever, you repellent cowardly scumbag c*nt."

Stuart Campbell, 13th October 2024: "You know f*ck-all about him, so maybe YOU should stop being a c*nt and shut up."

Ah.  OK.  If this kind of thing is Mr McEleny's idea of excellence on social media (and it really does appear to be), then his claim that I have fallen short of the appropriate standards is going to be just a trifle tough to maintain with a straight face.  Perhaps he thinks I just don't use the C-word often enough - is that it?!

(submitted 25th November 2024)

Reform UK hits an all-time high vote share with yet another polling firm - this time More In Common

I said yesterday that we shouldn't necessarily expect to see Reform UK in the outright lead in most GB-wide polls, at least in the immediate future, and these new More In Common numbers demonstrate why.  At 22%, Reform UK have hit their all-time high with More In Common - they had been on 21% on a couple of previous occasions, but never 22%.  And yet this new high watermark still has them in third place, because More In Common's 'house effects' consistently leave Reform with a slightly lower vote share than they have with polling firms that have shown them on the brink of taking the lead.

GB-wide voting intentions (More In Common, 6th-8th January 2025):

Conservatives 26% (-)
Labour 26% (-)
Reform UK 22% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-1)
Greens 7% (-1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

For all parties other than Reform, the poll is unremarkable.  Labour have been lower than 26% in a previous More In Common poll, and they've also been behind the Tories or level with the Tories in multiple previous polls from the firm, so a 26-26 tie is very much within the recent norm.  However, it's perhaps worth noting in passing how common it's become in recent weeks and months for polling firms to show the SNP on 3% of the GB-wide vote.  In the run-up to the general election, 2% was the most common figure. 

*  *  *

Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Thursday, January 9, 2025

As expected, Alba's kangaroo court has upheld my expulsion - so now that I no longer owe any loyalty to the party and can at last speak freely, it's time to consider where it all went so wrong for Alba

As this process has been a blatant stitch-up from beginning to end, it won't surprise anyone to hear that my appeal against expulsion has been rejected, and that the Alba Party is now permanently and irrevocably part of my past.  As I've said all along, I do not intend to be left politically homeless, and I will hopefully be able to announce my new political home in the very near future.

It scarcely seems possible, but if anything my treatment at the hands of the Appeals Committee last night was even more contemptuous than my treatment by the Disciplinary Committee on 5th December.  The Disciplinary Committee allowed me to attend the hearing for just twelve minutes, but I think last night it was more like nine or ten minutes before I was told to leave.  There's a very straightforward reason for that: it was absolutely blindingly obvious that the leadership loyalists on both committees were under strict instructions to ask me no questions at all, presumably to avoid giving me any ammunition.  I'm not letting my imagination run away with me there - when I was a member of the Disciplinary Committee, I sat through enough meetings with Christina Hendry to know that she had any number of menacing and inappropriate questions to ask Geoff Bush (for example) when she was in the middle of expelling him for no good reason, but mysteriously she went all bashful in my case and didn't say a single word until after I left the meeting.  Jackie Reid and Geraldine Harron took the same approach, as did John Caddis and a couple of others last night.

After the sheep incident yesterday I found myself unexpectedly short of time, so I spent two hours under considerable stress writing a little speech.  You really do come away feeling you've been treated like dirt when you go to all that trouble, and then read out the speech knowing full well that only one person is actually listening to you, and all the others are just sitting there with bored expressions waiting to follow the instructions they've been given. The whole outcome was 100% predetermined months ago, just as Yvonne Ridley boasted was the case long before I was even suspended.

Incidentally, the meeting yesterday was almost postponed at the last minute.  Corri Wilson wrote to me at around 5pm saying that the convener of the Appeals Committee wasn't available, and giving me a choice of either postponing or going ahead with a temporary chair appointed by the NEC.  I chose the latter option because McEleny has been mucking me around for months on end, and I wanted the process over with once and for all.  But several people I spoke to felt I was making the wrong decision and that I was "walking into a Tasmina / Corri trap". They felt it was a stunt to replace a convener who is known to be relatively fair-minded with a temporary chair from within the clique that was hellbent on expelling me.  I didn't know who that person would be until the meeting actually started, but it turned out to be Debbie Ewen.  When I mentioned that name after the meeting was over, the reaction was: "Sorry James, but you're toast.  Debbie takes her orders direct from the Corri Nostra."  Make of that what you will, but my own sense of the arithmetic is that I would have lost the vote no matter who the chair had been.  From the body language, three people were unremittingly hostile, and I would imagine I lost the vote 3-1, or possibly 4-1 if Ewen herself took part.

When I and others joined Alba in 2021, many people taunted us about how we were going to live to regret it.  I was extremely confident that wasn't true, and that even if Alba ultimately failed I would have no regrets about joining, because the party had been set up for the right reasons and with the very best of intentions.  With the benefit of hindsight, I'd have to concede I was completely wrong about that.  If I'd had any idea of the authoritarian freak show I was walking into, or of the toxic culture of bullying that I would be caught up in, I'd never have touched Alba with a bargepole. Having realised I'd made that mistake (and I'd certainly fully woken up to the situation by around a year ago), I felt the best thing to do was work from within to try to get the party onto the right track.  You might remember that I wrote a blogpost saying it's a bad idea to invoke Katy Perry by constantly changing political parties "like a girl changes clothes".  But now that the decision has been taken for me, it's something of a relief, and I'm quite happy to hold my hands up and admit that it was a big, big mistake to join Alba.  I sincerely apologise to anyone who was influenced by me and ended up joining Alba themselves, and I hope anyone in that situation understands that I was genuinely unaware of the true nature of the party.

Essentially Alba is a private club run for the exclusive convenience of a few dozen people belonging to a few closely connected families and friends.  It's tarted up to look like a party with internal democratic structures accessible to all members, but that's just window dressing.  If anyone from outside the ruling elite tries to use the democratic structures to push for change, they'll hit a brick wall, and if they push too hard, they'll swiftly find themselves suspended or expelled.  

How did such a grotesque situation come about?  In the months leading up to Alba's creation, Alex Salmond phoned me a number of times.  He was obviously courting the pro-indy New Media in case he wanted to get a new party off the ground quickly (although he clearly decided subsequently that the New Media was of no value to him after all, because Alba ended up alienating almost all of the main bloggers apart from Wings - and even Wings generally tells readers to vote unionist rather than Alba).  However in none of those phone calls did Mr Salmond actually share his plans, and I didn't feel it was my place to ask him to.  But luckily I was in touch with someone who did know his thinking.  

It was suggested to me at one point that he intended to model the new party after the Brexit Party, ie. with "registered supporters" rather than members to ensure he retained total control.  I assumed that plan had been ditched when I saw the Alba constitution was on paper a little more democratic than the SNP's, but in retrospect the registered supporters model is exactly what Alba ended up with - it's just that those people were called "members" and there was a big pretence that they had a say in how the party was run.  The best evidence that it was a pretence is the blatant rigging of the October 2023 internal elections. When the "wrong" people won, Mr Salmond simply voided the results (which he had no constitutional power to do) and ordered the elections to be re-run, and then put intense and wholly inappropriate pressure on the "wrong" winners to stand aside, which they duly did.  He justified this extraordinary action by standing up at conference and brandishing a "dossier" supposedly containing evidence that his family had been targeted during the elections and that there had been a plot to sabotage conference.  None of that was true.  I have been told by no fewer than three different people, all of whom I trust, that Mr Salmond later openly admitted to someone that no dossier had ever existed and that the whole thing was a gigantic bluff to justify the unjustifiable.  The rigging of those elections would have been one of the biggest scandals in modern Scottish political history if it hadn't been for the fact that journalists see Alba as a total irrelevance and just weren't paying any attention.

Something else I was told by my source in early 2021 is that Mr Salmond wasn't sure whether a new party was going to be possible due to the difficulties of securing funding. It looks like an awful lot of deals were done in the final weeks before the party was launched, and those deals ended up forging the shape of Alba's ruling elite.  That explains the really odd line-up of parliamentary candidates last July.  It possibly explains the special status that everyone knows certain individuals enjoy within the party.  Several people in the know have told me that Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh regards Alba as "her" party in a very literal sense, and that being party chair was non-negotiable for her. That could well be why it's proved impossible to persuade the leadership to accept one member, one vote for NEC elections - the thinking is that Ahmed-Sheikh needs to finish top of the NEC ballot to justify her appointed position as chair, and of course the only way to guarantee that any particular candidate tops the poll is by retaining the downright weird "pay per vote" system that is in place at present.

As far as Yvonne Ridley's special protected status is concerned, that apparently is not to do with money but instead the foreign media contacts she brings to the table.  She apparently opened a lot of doors for Salmond and Ahmed-Sheikh, which was regarded as invaluable, and therefore pretty much anyone will be sacrificed if they displease Ridley.  An Alba member once called her an "Islamist" and McEleny went completely nuts - I've seen the email exchange.

Now that I no longer owe any loyalty to the Alba party, I want to help Alba members make up their own minds about the state of their own party by putting as much information as is realistically possible into the public domain, so I'll be running a series of articles loosely called "THE ALBA FILES". (Before anyone panics, it's only a name.)  I'm going to start with the text of the defence document I submitted to the Disciplinary Committee in the run-up to the December hearing.  So check back later if you'd like to read that.  In the meantime, I'll leave you with an anonymous comment that was left on this blog the other day, and that I think is bang on the money - 

"If anything good has come of your membership of Alba, James, it's this: for years, I thought a lot of Alba High Command left the SNP because they could no longer stomach the authoritarian pivot by SNP leadership.

As your time in the party has shown, it turns out they actually left not because they disagreed with the authoritarian direction of the SNP, but because they were not the ones in charge of that authoritarian direction.

And I include Tasmina, McEleny, and Salmond himself in that. A bunch of self-absorbed, temper-tantruming egoists whose anti-authoritarian 'principles' turn out to have been a bunch of self-serving rubbish.

Aside from MacAskill, the whole upper echelons of the party reek of authoritarian overreach and self-interest. The SNP writ-small, if you will."

It's actually happened: Reform UK move into a JOINT LEAD in the latest Britain-wide poll

Technically, this is not the first time this has happened, because Reform UK is legally a direct continuation of the Brexit Party, which held the outright lead in a handful of polls during that mad period in the late spring and early summer of 2019.  But this is certainly the first time Reform have been in the lead (or joint lead) since their rebrand.

GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 8th January 2025):

Reform UK 25% (-)
Labour 25% (-1)
Conservatives 20% (-3)
Greens 11% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

So what effect will it have on "liberal No" opinion in Scotland to see Reform UK in pole position? Remember Reform have pledged to leave the European Convention on Human Rights within the first hundred days of taking power.  The UK would look like a very different country, very quickly, and to some extent we can already see that on the horizon.

Having said that, we shouldn't necessarily expect to see Reform ahead in the majority of polls in the immediate future, because Find Out Now seem to be more Reform-friendly than most polling companies.  But the real significance of this poll may be Reform building up a five-point lead over the Tories.  If the perception grows that Reform have replaced the Tories as the leading right-wing party, there may be a tipping-point at which a large chunk of Tory voters suddenly move across to Reform, which in turn could lead to a sustained Reform lead over Labour.

*  *  *

Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk