Friday, February 7, 2025

SNP open up massive lead in new MRP poll - while Reform hit yet another new all-time high in GB-wide survey

I was initially puzzled by the poll reported on the front page of The National today, but it turns out that it's the Scottish component of a GB-wide MRP poll.  The full sample size of the poll across Britain was just over 5000, which may mean the Scottish sample was around 500, which would be about half the size of the typical sample for a full-scale Scottish poll.  But MRP polls don't always have evenly spread samples, so it may not be as simple as that.  I'll see if I can find out more when I have more time.

The poll is billed as having been conducted by "PLMR / Electoral Calculus".  PLMR is some sort of communications outfit and is not a member of the British Polling Council.  Electoral Calculus is a member of the BPC, but I'm not aware of it having the capacity to carry out its own polling fieldwork, so it would be interesting to know how the fieldwork was sourced.

The vote intention percentages are fairly typical of what we've become used to recently, albeit with Reform's surge reaching the point where they are now closer than ever before to overtaking Labour in Scotland (unless you count the inaccurate numbers from the recent Find Out Now poll that were reported by the Herald).

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 31%
Labour 18%
Reform UK 17%
Conservatives 12%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Greens 4%

Incidentally, when I checked to see whether PLMR are in the BPC, I noticed that John Curtice is no longer BPC President - the changeover occurred a year ago, but I hadn't previously spotted that.  He's been replaced by Jane Green.  I'm wondering if that might be part of the explanation of how wires got crossed with the Find Out Now poll and Professor Curtice ended up doing a seats projection based on the wrong percentages.  Maybe he doesn't have quite such ready access to data tables now that he no longer heads the BPC.

Elsewhere, as you may have seen yesterday, Find Out Now have Reform UK reaching yet another GB-wide all-time high across all polling firms...

GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 5th February 2025):

Reform UK 29% (+2)
Labour 25% (+2)
Conservatives 18% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+2)
Greens 10% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Is this the tipping point I've long talked about, where right-wing voters move decisively to Reform and Tory support just melts away?  Not necessarily - a new Techne poll also shows Reform at a high watermark and in a joint lead with Labour, but with the Tories clinging on just two points behind.

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I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 a couple of weeks ago, and so far the running total stands at £1251, meaning that 18% of the target of £6800 has been raised.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE.  Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Cos tonight is the night when 1 becomes 2 - has Ash Regan crossed the Rubicon with her resignation and made it inevitable that Alba will split into two separate parties?

Ash Regan, the Alba Party's sole remaining parliamentarian, has given an extraordinary interview in which she reveals that she stepped down from the party's NEC a month ago (despite apparently never having actually attended any NEC meetings!) in protest at the original week-long suspension of Chris McEleny.  Short of announcing their engagement, it's hard to see how Regan and McEleny could make it much clearer that they are mutual allies of each other - any lingering suspicion that McEleny's support for Regan is a one-way thing has been well and truly dispelled.

I heard someone make an interesting point in response to the interview.  They recalled that the action McEleny took against me was initially explained (albeit in extremely vague terms) by a claim that I had breached party confidentiality in a blogpost, although it was never explained what the confidential information was supposed to be or in what form I had disclosed it.  And yet Regan has very explicitly in her interview breached the confidentiality of NEC decisions, and arguably also breached the terms of the party's social media policy by severely criticising the current leadership.  So if consistency is to be maintained, disciplinary action would have to be taken against Regan.  Probably consistency will not be maintained, although who knows - given that the General Secretary is currently taking disciplinary action against the acting party leader, and the acting party leader is currently taking disciplinary action against the General Secretary, anything must be considered possible.  Perhaps every single member of Alba will be expelled, and that's how the party will end.

But it's starting to look like the party will cease to exist in its current form anyway.  The best recent precedent I can think of for such irreconcilable differences opening up within a party is the SDP (Social Democratic Party) in 1987-88, when a narrow majority of members wanted to merge with the Liberals and a substantial minority wanted to remain an independent force.  The SDP leader David Owen actually proposed that there should be an amicable separation, with the party agreeing to divide itself in two and split its resources proportionately.  The pro-merger majority rejected that proposal, but Owen partly got his way anyway - as soon as the merger went through, he simply reconstituted the SDP with the same name, the same logo, himself as leader, and with three of the party's five MPs.  There was also, of course, the UKIP-Brexit Party split in 2018.

I wonder if Ash Regan's resignation is setting in train a similar non-amicable parting of the ways for Alba.  If, as I expect, she loses the leadership election, we might see a new party being set up with herself as leader and McEleny as deputy.  It might attract a significant number of current Alba members due to Regan's feminist credentials.  It sort of half makes sense if you think about it, because it would resolve McEleny's dilemma that we discussed last night - how does he still stand for a Holyrood list seat if he's burned his bridges with Alba?  A new party might be the only way he can do it without renouncing independence and throwing in his lot with Farage.  The new party would even start with a modicum of credibility due to having a serving MSP in Regan, although I doubt that would get them very far.  Alba's current chances of winning seats are slim, but Alba divided in two would surely have no chance.

Alba only have two other elected representatives - the local councillors Chris "Lieutenant Columbo" Cullen in Ayrshire and Karl Rosie in the Highlands.  Cullen is part of the so-called "Corri Nostra" which is backing Kenny MacAskill, so he would undoubtedly stick with official Alba in the event of a split. I've no idea which way Rosie would jump.

THE ALBA FILES, Part 8: The examples of gross misconduct that should *really* be on Chris McEleny's charge sheet

It's no secret that I think Kenny MacAskill's decision to remove Chris McEleny from his role as Alba's General Secretary is long overdue, but I do think he's gone wrong in the precise way he's chosen to do it.  McEleny was a party employee and therefore, as I understand it, MacAskill and the NEC had the power to simply sack him, and that's what should have happened.  There was no need to use the party's disciplinary machinery to remove him, and in going down that road Mr MacAskill has perpetuated the Alba Party's deepest-rooted problem - the intentional use of disciplinary action as a weapon to completely snuff out legitimate internal debate within the party about strategy and policy.

Someone on the previous thread compared the power-struggle and bloodletting in Alba since Alex Salmond died in October to The Death Of Stalin.  Obviously that analogy has its limits, because when Beria was removed from power a few months after Stalin's death, he was ambushed at a Politburo meeting and was eventually shot.  But the point is that in the Soviet Union, politics had become terrifyingly tangled up with the criminal justice system and in particular with judicial execution.  If you spoke out against the leader's policy or displeased him in some other way, he wouldn't just sack you, he would have you shot or tortured.  Khrushchev actually thought it was a sign that the country had matured when he was removed from power in a coup without being shot - he was allowed to retire and live out his days peacefully with a pension.

There has been no equivalent maturing process within the Alba Party yet, because the disciplinary process is being weaponised to the max by all sides in the leadership contest.  When Kenny MacAskill implied on social media that the Ash Regan camp was flirting with fascism by aping Reform UK rhetoric, McEleny didn't respond with a spirited verbal or written counter-argument, as would happen in a normal, mature political party.  He instead framed Mr MacAskill's words as "bullying and harassment" and tried to suspend him.  Mr MacAskill has now retaliated by framing McEleny's original allegedly quasi-fascist remarks about asylum seekers as "gross misconduct" and suspended him. That simply perpetutates the problem, because it means that the free and frank exchange of views within Alba will always be impossible.  Members will always know that diverging from the ruling faction's policy views in even the smallest way will potentially be a suspension or expulsion offence.

Don't get me wrong, though - I do believe McEleny is guilty of gross misconduct, but not in the form that appears on the charge sheet.  I think he should have been sacked, and then entirely separately from that, disciplinary action could have been considered against him at a later stage - but not for the expression of his political views about asylum seekers.  His real misconduct was in his abuse of powers in the treatment of party members.  The three worst examples I know of are - 

* He dishonestly certified numerous party members as having "publicly resigned from the party", therefore effectively expelling them without any disciplinary hearing or due process whatsoever.

* He unilaterally removed Jacqui Bijster from the list of candidates for the 2023 election of Ordinary Members of the NEC, which she was properly nominated for.  This was a blatant case of election-rigging, and he justified it by pretending to 'misunderstand' her message withdrawing from the Membership Support Convener election, but not from the NEC Ordinary Member election.

* He instructed his deputy Corri Wilson to lie to the Disciplinary Committee (whether she actually knew it was a lie is unclear) by stating that Colin Alexander had expressed no wish to use his constitutional right to attend his disciplinary hearing.  Colin was not granted his wish to attend but the majority of members of the committee expelled him from the party anyway (acting as they always did as a rubberstamp for McEleny's wishes), even though they were fully aware of McEleny's lie by that point.

In the run-up to the hearing, Colin contacted me out of the blue to explain that he had told McEleny he wanted to attend but that McEleny was pulling his usual stunt of ignoring the emails.  I presume the reason Colin contacted me in particular was because I had announced on this blog a few weeks earlier that I had been newly elected to the Disciplinary Committee, and therefore I was the only committee member that he knew of or knew how to contact.  I had no idea how to proceed.  I thought it would be a mistake to reply to Colin because that might be used by others as an excuse to disbar me from participating in the hearing.  So instead I just bided my time and waited to see if the situation was resolved.  

But when the hearing took place, Corri Wilson flatly announced that Colin had expressed no wish to attend.  So that left me with no choice - I told the committee that I knew for a fact that wasn't true.  Corri doubled down and insisted there were no emails from Colin expressing a wish to attend, and I said "oh there were, and I've seen the emails".  Fortunately I was backed up by Alan Harris, who pointed out that it was extremely obvious from the disciplinary referral document that there were emails missing from the correspondence between Colin and McEleny.  I said that it was clear to me that "the General Secretary is playing games here".

Marjorie Ellis Thompson, who had just been directly appointed chair of the committee by the Alba leadership, listened intently to what I had said.  But instead of engaging with the actual content of my comments, she then launched into an extraordinarily aggressive attempt to tone-police me.  She said that I had to be careful about the way I was expressing myself because it might upset Corri, who was a member of staff.  I pointed out that I was not attacking Corri, but that Corri was acting on the General Secretary's instructions, and the General Secretary had clearly instructed her to tell us things that simply were not true.  It wasn't a trivial matter, because McEleny had explicitly stated that he wanted us to expel Colin.  Therefore the points I had made were perfectly legitimate, and Marjorie shouldn't have tried to rule them out of order.  

I don't want to be too critical of Marjorie, though, because my gut feeling is that she had been put in an impossible position by the leadership which had appointed her.  I suspect she wanted to act fairly and properly as the chair but had seemingly received strict instructions that Corri Wilson and Chris McEleny had to be protected and defended at all costs.

From memory, Alan, myself and Morgwn Davies all argued that the case against Colin should be dismissed, or at the very least that his suspension should be lifted pending a re-run of the hearing, because clearly McEleny's lie hadn't been Colin's fault.  But Josh Robertson, Chris "Lieutenant Columbo" Cullen and Marjorie (who I believe made use of her casting vote) blocked that proposal.  I was particularly suspicious about Josh Robertson's stated reasoning for insisting that the case had to go forward to a re-run hearing.  I wondered if he had been tipped the wink about a "Plan B" if McEleny's lie was brought to light - and sure enough by the time the re-run hearing took place, Marjorie had resigned from the committee altogether and Josh had magically replaced her as chair.  And Josh, I'm afraid, had absolutely none of Marjorie's scruples about acting as a rubberstamp for McEleny's wishes. 

Now, you might think that if the General Secretary had been caught red-handed lying to the Disciplinary Committee in an attempt to get a party member expelled due to a personal vendetta, the first thing the Party Chair would do is launch an inquiry into the General Secretary's misconduct.  But oh no.  This is the Alba Party, remember.  Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh instead sent us all a menacing email informing us that any questioning of the General Secretary's good faith was totally unacceptable - seemingly irrespective of how overwhelming the evidence was that he had acted in bad faith.  She also reframed the points of order that I, Alan and Morgwn had raised about McEleny's lie and about other procedural irregularities as "possible misogynistic bullying of the committee chair".  I'm not making this up - yes, it's straight out of Orwell, but that is exactly what she did.  She announced she would be launching a one-person disciplinary investigation into the matter.  I don't think she ever had the slightest intention of finding myself, Morgwn or Alan guilty of "misogynistic bullying", because she knew perfectly well it wouldn't be that hard for us to produce a transcript of the meeting and to demonstrate that not a single misogynistic word had been uttered.  The whole thing was just a profoundly cynical stunt to deflect attention away from McEleny's lie, which should have resulted in his immediate resignation or dismissal.

In a future installment of "THE ALBA FILES", I'm going to go into much more detail about my lengthy email exchange with Tasmina.  But for now, here's an extract from my initial reply to Tasmina dated 25th March 2024 in which I did my best to very politely (perhaps too politely) take her to task about the wholly improper way she was protecting McEleny.  Because Colin Alexander's real name is not in the public domain, I have amended the text below to replace his real name with "Mr Alexander" - 

"Fourthly, I must take issue with your suggestion that it is 'not appropriate' to attribute motivations to the General Secretary in withholding information from us.  It's not just that it wasn't inappropriate to draw the inference that was made, it's that no other plausible explanation for his motivation is even available.  Even if the withheld email from Mr Alexander was somehow missed by error, there was enough information in the other emails to infer that there must have been a missing email, and also to infer the likely nature of that email.  Therefore, we shouldn't have been flatly informed that Mr Alexander did not wish to attend the meeting when the opposite was known to be true.  Let me remind you that this is not a trivial matter - the General Secretary made explicitly clear that he wanted us to use the meeting to expel Mr Alexander from the party.  For him to make that request on the basis of false information and partial information is something that must be deprecated in the strongest possible terms.  I'm sure you would agree, and I would urge you to speedily make representations to the General Secretary to ensure that it never happens again.

As party chair you command our fullest respect, but as you have chosen to involve yourself in this matter, I would respectfully suggest that the nature of your involvement should be to put an end to the grievous ongoing procedural unfairness against Mr Alexander and Ms Somerville by ensuring our next meeting goes ahead as scheduled on Wednesday evening, and by leaving the General Secretary in no doubt whatsoever that he should never, ever again ask the Disciplinary Committee to expel a party member while withholding key information from us."

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

BREAKING: Chris McEleny is fired as General Secretary of the Alba Party for "gross misconduct" after his hapless coup attempt ends in total catastrophe, both for himself and the party as a whole - which has now entered a state of outright civil war

As his idol across the water would have said in his Apprentice days: "Christopher, you're fired."

I hate to say "I told you so", but none of this would have happened if the Alba top brass had simply listened to the "wee gang of malcontents" - not just me, but so many others as well who have either been expelled or driven out of the party by bullying.  None of the chaos that Chris McEleny has unleashed within the party in recent weeks would even have been possible if our calls for internal democratisation and for reform of the Kafkaesque disciplinary procedure had been heeded.  McEleny has only been able to act with such impunity because of Alba's toxic authoritarian culture, which has allowed the constitution to be breached and party officials to exceed the limits of their powers again, and again, and again.

Technically the situation now is that McEleny is "suspended" from his position of General Secretary, so theoretically he could return if the disciplinary proceedings work out in his favour, but clearly that is not going to happen.  Make no mistake - he has been fired by Kenny MacAskill and that's an end to it.  There is no way back for him as General Secretary, and there is no way back for him in any form whatsoever within the Alba Party.  If you launch a coup against your own party leader (even an acting leader), you have to get it right within the first five seconds, otherwise you've blown it forever.  

McEleny's dreams of acting as the éminence grise for an Ash Regan-led Alba, and of becoming an Alba list MSP next year, now lie in tatters.  He is extraordinarily ambitious and is highly unlikely to abandon his personal goals even at this stage, but to fulfil them he's going to have to join another party - which leads me to the inexorable conclusion that he will strongly consider renouncing independence in order to join Reform UK, because that is the only party he could plausibly join which would offer him a realistic chance of winning a seat at Holyrood.

This episode must finally put an end to the ludicrous pretence from the MacAskill faction of the party that Alba has been functioning as a normal political party over the last eighteen months.  McEleny was the driving force behind numerous malicious expulsions and lengthy suspensions - not just me, but also Geoff Bush, Sean Davis, Denise Somerville and Colin Alexander.  All of those spurious "upheld complaints" should now be overturned and apologies issued, and anyone who wishes to rejoin Alba should be allowed to do so.  That includes the larger list of people who McEleny falsely certified as having "publicly resigned from the party" in order to bypass the disciplinary machinery altogether.  I've rejoined the SNP since my expulsion and am extremely happy with that decision, but I believe the others are for the most part politically homeless at present.  That is totally unfair on them and a dreadful injustice should now be put right.

I can't help but raise a rather ironic smile at the revelation that a specific component of the "gross misconduct" charge against McEleny is that he gave the impression that Alba supported the Tories in their bid to deprive asylum seekers of free bus travel.  Er, didn't I raise concerns on this blog at the time that McEleny was flirting with far-right rhetoric and that Alba consequently risked mutating from its social democratic roots?  And wasn't I shouted down and ridiculed for that by Alba HQ's Robert Reid, known to be a strong MacAskill supporter?  If you're reading this, Robert - what total hypocrisy on your part.  Total hypocrisy, and you should hang your head in shame.

I was speaking last night to some former Alba members, and I said to them that there was a strange paradox about McEleny.  Most of us had sat in committee meetings with him at some point or another and seen how he remains completely calm and collected when he sticks the knife in.  He never raises his voice or shows any emotion.  You'd think such a man would have brilliant tactics to match his icy temperament, but that's where it all falls apart - his cunning plans are all Baldrick-like and invariably blow up in his face.  Did he really not foresee that absolutely everyone would work out within two seconds that he was the "disgruntled senior employee" quoted by the Sunday Mail briefing against Mr MacAskill?  Did he really believe that he would get away with taking bogus "disciplinary action" against the acting party leader - an action I struggle to think of any precedent for in any UK political party?

It was an attempted coup, that's for sure - the idea would have been that Mr MacAskill's leadership bid might prove untenable if he was suspended in some form or another.  But as I've mentioned quite a few times, 75% of the four members of the Disciplinary Committee who voted for my own expulsion in early December were Robert Reid's mum (Jackie Reid), or Robert Reid's girlfriend (Christina Hendry), or Alex Salmond's niece (Christina Hendry again), or directly appointed to the committee by Alex Salmond (both Christina Hendry and Josh Robertson).  The idea that those people were ever going to suspend Kenny MacAskill is just barking mad.  Maybe McEleny thought a temporary suspension pending the disciplinary hearing would be enough to do the trick?  Well, no, that makes no sense, because Mr MacAskill always had enough supporters on the NEC to overturn a temporary suspension.  It was just never going to work.  It was the sort of coup Mr Bean or Frank Spencer would have attempted, and the outcome is utterly predictable to everyone apart from the man himself.


I follow the Moskva
Down to Gorky Park
Listening to the wind of CHA-ANGE
An August summer night
Soldiers passing by
Listening to the wind of CHA-ANGE

Take me 
To the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow dream away (dream away)
In the wind of CHANGE
Mmmmm

A slightly more detailed reply to Ballot Box Scotland on his denunciation of Find Out Now polls

The other day I posted a brief response to Allan Faulds' announcement that his website Ballot Box Scotland is basically going to treat Find Out Now polls as if they don't exist from this point on. I think it might be worth going into more depth about this, because the issues are important, and there really isn't much doubt that he's based his decision in part on a false premise.  I've checked his website and I've checked his Bluesky account (he's abandoned Twitter), and he doesn't seem to have noticed that false premise yet.

It's fair to say that Mr Faulds and I are not on each other's Christmas card lists, so it's unlikely he'll read this blogpost, and even if he hears about it he's likely to discount the contents simply because they were written by me.  But if there's any stats-minded person reading this who is on good terms with him, it might be worth gently attempting an 'intervention' without mentioning my name, because I genuinely do think he's going to damage his own credibility by "blacklisting" a substantial minority of published Scottish polls on the basis of a completely false assumption.

The simplified version of his argument for "blacklisting" Find Out Now goes like this - 

* Their poll at the weekend had the SNP at 25% of the list vote, which is implausibly low.  It's a joint record post-2021 low, when the evidence from other pollsters is that the SNP's popularity has rebounded markedly since last summer.

* Their poll had the Greens and Lib Dems on 13% apiece for the Holyrood list vote, and had the Greens on 10% of the Holyrood constituency vote, which is implausibly high.

* Their poll had Alba on 7% of the list vote, which is massively out of step with every other polling company apart from Norstat. It's an all-time high for Alba at a time when Mr Faulds thinks the party is in a very weak state (and there's a very long discussion about why he thinks they're so weak - some of which is perfectly fair comment and some isn't).

But the problem is that most of the above isn't true.  The SNP are not on 25% of the list vote in the Find Out Now poll, and nor are Alba on 7%.  The Herald (who commissioned the poll) reported the wrong numbers - it's as simple as that. If Mr Faulds looked at the correct turnout-adjusted numbers, which are available on the Find Out Now website, his mind would be set at rest to at least some extent.  The SNP are actually on around 27% of the list vote and Alba are on around 5% - probably only enough to win Alba one list seat, rather than the eight that was suggested at the weekend.  OK, that probably still understates the SNP and overstates Alba, but it's within a more realistic range.

The Greens are actually on around 9% of the constituency vote and the Lib Dems are on around 12% of the list vote - not a huge difference from the wrong numbers reported by the Herald, but again, slightly more realistic.

There is a legitimate criticism that can and should be made of Find Out Now, but it's totally different from the one Mr Faulds has made.  Where they're seemingly going wrong is by not giving their clients sufficient guidance on how to interpret the data tables.  There's not much doubt that Find Out Now regard the turnout-adjusted voting intention numbers as the definitive, headline numbers, because they've used the turnout-adjusted numbers for Westminster in their own write-up of the poll.  But they don't seem to have explained that to the Herald.  I know from my own experience of commissioning a Find Out Now poll that I was basically just handed the data tables without much in the way of explanatory notes.  I manually worked out the independence percentages with Don't Knows excluded, and I then emailed them to say something like "before publishing, can I just check I have these percentages correct?", and they said "yes".  But if I hadn't checked, I'd never have known for sure what the correct percentages were.  It's not at all hard to see how wires could be getting crossed with a newspaper client.

I also think Mr Faulds is wrong in another respect, although this is more a matter of opinion than of fact.  I don't think it's good enough for him to say "this polling company is producing numbers that don't 'feel' right to me, therefore I'm going to pretend their polls don't exist". Remember the 2017 general election campaign, when most polling firms were pointing to a Tory landslide, but Survation were suggesting a hung parliament?  Survation were relentlessly mocked, not least by Andrew Neil, who just 'knew' it was ridiculous to suggest that a radical leftie like Jeremy Corbyn could be polling strongly with the British electorate.  But it turned out that Survation were right and the others were wrong.

Demanding that polling companies must only produce results that "feel intuitively right" to commentators effectively encourages those companies to artificially "herd" their results - which in some cases will make polling averages much less accurate, not more so.

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I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 around ten days ago, and so far the running total stands at £1251, meaning that 18% of the target of £6800 has been raised.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE.  Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Power-crazed McEleny pushes Alba to the brink of destruction by launching yet another bogus "disciplinary" action - this time against the party's ACTING LEADER

As you've probably seen, The National have published a dynamite exclusive from which only one conclusion can be drawn.  Chris McEleny has recognised that he made a potentially career-ending blunder by betting the house on Ash Regan winning the Alba leadership contest, because the Salmond family's backing of Kenny MacAskill makes it almost a nailed-on certainty that MacAskill will win.  As the pound-shop Machiavelli that he is, McEleny now knows that only a major disruptive incident can rescue Regan's campaign and therefore his own career, and has decided to engineer one by yet again abusing his own powers as General Secretary.  He has launched another bogus "disciplinary" action - this time against the acting party leader himself.

As can be easily discerned from the National piece, the charges of "bullying and harassment" McEleny has lodged against Mr MacAskill are totally bogus.  They amount to nothing more than special pleading on behalf of the Regan campaign because they didn't like the implications on social media that they were flirting with fascism by aping Reform UK rhetoric.  It looks like Mr MacAskill has seen off the bogus action for the time being, with him commenting - 

"An unauthorised and unconstitutional attempt was made to allegedly suspend me, Kenny MacAskill, by an individual acting outwith the limits of their powers."

However, those words create a massive problem for MacAskill too, because the words "unconstitutional" and "acting outwith the limits of their powers" have a specific meaning here.  McEleny did not suspend Mr MacAskill's party membership pending a disciplinary hearing (which he would have had the power to do under the Alba constitution) but instead sought to suspend Mr MacAskill from attending Alba committee meetings (which he has no constitutional power to do).  He specifically said he was empowered to do this due to the precedent of the action he took against me in September, when he initially did not suspend my party membership but instead suspended me from attending meetings of the Constitution Review Group, of which I was an elected member.

By definition, then, if MacAskill is saying that the action taken against himself is unconstitutional and exceeds McEleny's powers, he is confirming that the action taken against me in September was also unconstitutional and exceeded McEleny's powers.

I would suggest it is now incumbent upon Mr MacAskill to clarify whether he voted for or against the unconstitutional action against me when McEleny took it to the NEC.  If he voted in favour of it, I would suggest that in all good conscience he should now be considering his own position - not only for knowingly breaching the party constitution, but also for sheer hypocrisy.  At the very least, he should be pondering the old verse - 

"First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."

McEleny, for his own utterly selfish ends, has now driven Alba to the brink of either civil war or total destruction, and those who have sat back and allowed him to abuse his powers for the last four years, simply because they were not personally affected at the time, must accept a large share of the blame for that.  Morgwn Davies, Alan Harris and myself all did our level best as members of the Disciplinary Committee last year to stand up to McEleny as he maliciously sought the expulsion and suspension of numerous Alba members who had done absolutely nothing wrong - and what support did we receive from senior people in the party who should have been both protecting us and speaking out against McEleny's abuses?  None.  Absolutely none.  We were hung out to dry.

YouGov put Nigel Farage in pole position to be the next Prime Minister as Reform jump into the lead in apocalyptic new poll

This is not, of course, the first time in recent weeks that a polling company has put Reform in the lead, but it's the fact that YouGov have done it that is really making people sit up and take notice.  It perhaps shouldn't be a surprise, though, because as I've noted in the past, Reform in their previous guise as the Brexit Party had a purple patch in mid-2019 when they had an outright lead in a number of GB polls - and the vast majority of those polls were conducted by YouGov.  A couple of them had the Brexit Party as high as 26% - so technically this new poll isn't even an all-time high for Reform.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 2nd-3rd February 2025):

Reform UK 25% (+2)
Labour 24% (-3)
Conservatives 21% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 14% (-)
Greens 9% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 34%, Reform UK 17%, Labour 15%, Liberal Democrats 13%, Conservatives 13%, Greens 5%

As I always point out (and it seems I have to do it every single time because people go off on one otherwise), YouGov's Scottish subsamples can be taken more seriously than those from other firms because they seem to be correctly structured and weighted - although of course the margin of error is still huge because of the limited sample size.

James Johnson of JL Partners, who according to his Twitter bio used to do internal polling for the UK Government, argued a few days ago that recent polls have been OK for Labour, and that they are on course for re-election.  Obviously the new poll calls that into question, but I think it would have been an extraordinary statement anyway.  You can only say Labour at 24-28% of the vote are on course for re-election if you truly believe that the right-wing vote will not coalesce around one party or another at any point over the next four and a half years, and that rather than being a transitional state of affairs, the current relatively even split between Reform and the Tories will just persist indefinitely.  That seems to me to be phenomenally unlikely.  Labour are pretty plainly on course for a historic drubbing unless their own vote share recovers, although I suppose the caveat is that some of the left-wing vote might fall into line behind Labour out of fright if Reform start to move into the 30s.

Our own pro-Reform commenter was gloating last night that Farage would get into Downing Street, repeal the Scotland Act, and that would be the end of indy for a very long time.  As you know, I believe the opposite is true.  I think Farage abolishing devolution would be Christmas for the independence movement and would sent Yes support soaring through the roof.  In fact it's harder to think of a faster track to indy than that.  The odds are still probably against such a scenario, but with Reform's stance on devolution being so unclear, it certainly can't be ruled out.

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I've been asked what I think about Allan Faulds of Ballot Box Scotland 'blacklisting' Find Out Now and saying he's just going to basically pretend Find Out Now polls don't exist anymore.  I personally think he's destroying his own credibility - I don't think any serious analyst or collator of polls can just use personal taste or whim as an excuse for excluding a very large proportion of polls that are published.  And that's what he's doing, because Find Out Now have joined Redfield & Wilton on Faulds' blacklist, and his reasons seem even more nebulous and insubstantial this time - as far as I can see he just doesn't trust the look of the numbers.  In the case of the most recent Find Out Now poll, he might have been better advised to do what I did last night and check the data tables to see whether the numbers have actually been accurately reported by the client (the Herald) because they clearly haven't been.

Of course there are junk polls out there, but those have to be identified by some sort of objective test rather than by personal distaste.  I'd have thought the most obvious objective test is whether a polling company is affiliated to the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.  Both Find Out Now and Redfield & Wilton are full BPC members.  Having commissioned a Find Out Now poll myself two years ago, I know how seriously they take their responsibilities as BPC rule-followers.  They're perhaps a little ill-advised in the way they go about it, because they use Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus to approve their question wordings (or at least they did as of early 2023) and he brings to bear his own very strong London-centric biases in carrying out the task.  But the point I'm making is that they're not some sort of slapdash cowboy outfit, and they shouldn't be treated as if they are one.

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I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 around ten days ago, and so far the running total stands at £1201, meaning that 18% of the target of £6800 has been raised.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE.  Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Monday, February 3, 2025

BREAKING: It appears the Find Out Now poll has been misreported, with support for independence actually on 52%, not 51% - but in a huge blow for Alba, they appear to be on 5% of the list vote, not 7%

There's been a lot of discussion over the last couple of days about whether the 7% list vote for Alba in the new Find Out Now poll is really plausible, but as far as I know there's been no discussion over whether that figure has actually been correctly reported.  I've been having a look at the Find Out Now tables, and I'm far from convinced that it has been.

Let me say at this point that I've commissioned a Find Out Now poll myself in the past - just once, and it was almost two years ago now, but assuming that they still have the same basic approach that they did back then, what is likely to have happened is that the Herald will have been handed the data tables and left to work out the meaning of the numbers for themselves, unless they specifically asked for guidance.  So for starters, it looks like the Herald have used the non-turnout-adjusted numbers on independence (Yes 51%, No 49%), whereas to maintain consistency with previous polls they should really have used the turnout-adjusted figures, which are...

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Find Out Now/Herald, 15th-20th January 2025)

Yes 52% (-)
No 48% (-)

The same issue has led to a discrepancy between the Westminster numbers on the Herald and Find Out Now websites.  The Herald say that second-placed Labour are only one point ahead of Reform UK in third place, whereas Find Out Now themselves say the gap is three points.  That strongly implies Find Out Now regard the turnout-adjusted numbers as the headline results, which means Alba are NOT on 7% of the Holyrood list vote.  They are on about 5.4%, which is borderline between being rounded down to 5% or rounded up to 6%, but in all probability the correct number is 5%.

The slight mystery here, though, is that Professor John Curtice apparently did the seats projection and I'd have thought he'd have checked the data tables first before approving the numbers.  However, the more I've looked at the tables, the more convinced I've become that a major error has been made.

I've done a manual calculation, and the following appear to be the correct numbers, although in one or two cases they may be 1% out due to rounding issues - 

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 34% (-1)
Labour 20% (+1)
Conservatives 13% (-2)
Reform UK 13% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-)
Greens 9% (+2)
Alba 2% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 27% (+1)
Labour 16% (-1)
Conservatives 15% (+1)
Greens 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 12% (+2)
Reform UK 11% (-)
Alba 5% (-1)

Those numbers make far, far more intuitive sense than the ones that were published on Saturday night - there's no mysterious slump in the SNP vote, and Alba's support is at a slightly more realistic level (albeit still probably significantly exaggerated).

As far as a seats projection is concerned, I'm not aware of John Curtice's model being publicly available online anywhere, so it's impossible to be sure of what the real numbers would be if the vote shares had been entered correctly.  But on the most popular tool available online, the seats projection works out as:  SNP 54, Labour 18, Conservatives 17, Greens 16, Liberal Democrats 14, Reform UK 9, Alba 1.  Again, that looks like a far more realistic estimate of where we actually are than the rather wild-looking projection that was published on Saturday night (which had Alba on *eight* seats!).

It's still a very substantial pro-independence majority - pro-indy parties are on 71 seats in combination, with unionist parties on just 58 seats.

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I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 last weekend, and so far the running total stands at £1201, meaning that 18% of the target of £6800 has been raised.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE.  Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

THE ALBA FILES, Part 7: What Robert Reid and Chris McEleny have previously said about the Alba leadership's plans to split the pro-independence vote in constituency seats

Just a short one this, but it's prompted by Alba HQ's resident stripling Robert Reid having one of his periodical rants about me on Twitter last night.  He obviously drops by to this blog now and again, and his rage at seeing any sort of alternative to HQ propaganda always seems to get the better of him.

However, he's more than a tad hapless in the way he lashes out.  Last time around he was feigning incredulity that anyone could possibly doubt the integrity of the process that led to my expulsion from Alba given that "ordinary Alba members" had supposedly made the decision - but all I had to do was point out that only four Alba members had voted to expel me, and exactly 50% of them were either his own girlfriend or his own mum.  He couldn't dispute that because he knows it's true and he knows it's in the minutes.

This time he was harrumphing about me supposedly "lying" when I criticised Alba for their irresponsible plans to split the pro-independence vote on the constituency ballot next year, abandoning the sensible list-only strategy from 2021. Reid insisted that no decision has been taken yet and that Alba members will ultimately decide.  But yet again, it's his own girlfriend that's the problem for him, because Christina Hendry has already announced that she intends to be the Alba candidate in the constituency seat of Banffshire and Buchan Coast.  And it has to be said she doesn't seem to be terribly interested in Alba members' thoughts on the matter - she reckons she's inheriting the candidacy from her Uncle Alex by right of "Salmond blood", to use her own bizarre Game of Thrones-style language.

When I put that point to Reid, he defensively tried to make out that what Ms Hendry had said to the press was only provisional and "pending membership approval".  To put it mildly, that does not ring true, because when Alex Salmond himself first announced his plans to stand in Banffshire and Buchan Coast, there was no deference to the ultimate sovereignty of Alba members - it was just something he had decided to do and that was an end to the matter.  His party, his decision, full stop.

Anyway, Reid's ongoing obsession with me has made me think back to my previous interactions with him.  They're extremely limited, because his election to the NEC in autumn 2022 coincided with me being voted off the body.  However, he did phone me up out of the blue once - it was a year ago, in February 2024.  Apparently Alex Salmond had got extremely upset about a newspaper article written by Conor Matchett, which suggested that polling showed Salmond was less popular in Scotland than Nigel Farage.  He wanted a sharp reply to be sent to Matchett, but neither he nor anyone else in HQ could actually find the relevant numbers in the data tables of the poll, so in desperation Reid turned to me.  (I suspect the poor lad may have been getting the hairdryer treatment all morning.)  I had to be the bearer of bad news, because the poll did basically show what Matchett had claimed it showed.

Nevertheless, Reid did his best to follow his leader's instructions, and sent an email to Matchett with a suitably indignant tone, even though the facts were stacked against him.  He forwarded the email to me, and one section stands out as particularly significant - 

"Firstly ALBA are at 3 per cent on the regional list polling question of the latest Redfield Wilton poll as shown below. This is the ONLY section of voting for which ALBA have been traditionally prompted by pollsters (ie shown on their list of parties on polling questions). That is understandable since previously ALBA only intended to stand on the regional list for Holyrood."

Never again let it be pretended that Alba hasn't mutated from its original billing as a responsible list-only party.  OK, political parties are allowed to change, but by the same token members and supporters of a party are allowed to be upset about having been sold a false prospectus.

Another intriguing titbit is that Reid once spontaneously contacted me with a "keep up the good work" message after I wrote a blogpost urging Alba to only stand in the two seats where they had incumbent MPs at the Westminster general election.  He told me that wasn't all that far away from HQ's own thinking - which surprised me, because my impression from having previously been on the NEC was that Alex Salmond wanted Alba to make a big intervention in the general election, which of course is exactly what happened in the end.

I can only speculate, but I wonder if "HQ's thinking" was code for "McEleny's thinking".  If so, that might indicate there was a difference of view between McEleny and Mr Salmond on election strategy.  In spite of the much-vaunted "telepathic link" between the two men, McEleny was sometimes surprisingly blunt in his criticisms of Mr Salmond.  When I last saw McEleny in August (only a few weeks before he arbitrarily suspended me from the party), he very directly stated that Mr Salmond was living well beyond Alba's means in terms of the hotel, travel and food expenses he was racking up, and that someone was going to need to have a word with him.  "It's fine if Alex gets a big gig like Question Time in London", but other than that, major cutbacks were going to have to be made.  

That of course is one of the issues that has caused so much hurt and upset - other Alba NEC members, and indeed Alba rank-and-file members, have been working tirelessly for the party out of their own pocket, and they haven't known what to make of a select few at the top living the high life thanks to party funds which should really have been used for campaigning purposes.

McEleny also gave a possible clue in August to the leadership's plans about standing in Holyrood constituency seats next year.  He talked of the possibility of standing in one constituency per electoral region, which would mean splitting the pro-indy vote in eight constituency seats across Scotland.  He then caught himself and said with some alarm "I'm just speaking hypothetically here, James", which led me to think he wasn't speaking hypothetically at all - although I suspect eight constituency seats may be more of a floor than a ceiling.

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Coming up in future installments of "THE ALBA FILES"...

* Straight-Talking And Totally Unfiltered: How Shannon Donoghue and Chris Cullen explained their refusal to give rank-and-file Alba members decision-making powers, or even any basic information about decisions taken at the monthly NEC meetings 

* McEleny's campaign of "disciplinary" revenge after evidence of the 2023 election-rigging started to leak

* Tasmina Writes It All Down And Then Hits "Send"

...plus much, much more.  Stay tuned.

Sunday, February 2, 2025

*SETTLED WILL KLAXON* - Yet another Find Out Now poll shows a pro-independence majority

Many thanks to Paul Kirkwood for pointing out to me that the independence numbers from the Find Out Now poll have been published in the print edition of the Herald on Sunday, where they're presented almost as an afterthought.  I don't know whether they've been published online - I certainly didn't see them on the Herald website last night.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Find Out Now / Herald, 15th-20th January 2025)

Yes 51% (-1)
No 49% (+1)

So it remains the case that all but one of the Find Out Now polls on independence that have ever been published have shown a Yes majority.  In other words, if Find Out Now's methodology is accurate, Scotland has a settled will that it wishes to become an independent country.  The same can more or less be said of the UK's 'gold standard' pollster Ipsos.

It's also technically the case that the last three polls to have been published across all polling firms have shown a Yes lead.  However, that's a slightly artificial point, because as far as I know the independence numbers from the recent Survation poll were never published, but from the data tables it looked to me like there was a No lead in that one.

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I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 last weekend, and so far the running total stands at £831, meaning that 12% of the target of £6800 has been raised.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE.  Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk