Wednesday, March 26, 2025

"My Alba Torment" by Chris McEleny - the man they call Primus admits he may be on his way out of the Alba Party after his humiliating 4-1 margin of defeat in the depute leadership election

"I used to know an ancient remedy for mad dogs.  I must look it up some time..."

- Tom Baker in the Doctor Who story 'The Keeper of Traken'

I wasn't organised enough to find the video feed for the Alba leadership announcement this morning, but I gather from those who watched it that Chris McEleny started his concession speech by saying that he thought it might be the last time he ever spoke from an Alba podium, because he expects the next step to be his suspension from the party.  (If you want to know what the suspension email is likely to look like, Chris, I can show you mine, although come to think of it that's already in your "Sent" folder, isn't it?!)

Is he trying reverse psychology here?  Does he think predicting it will make it less likely to happen?  I'm not sure that's right, because he's put MacAskill in a position where he'll look weak if he doesn't see it through.

One thing you can be sure of - if McEleny thinks his days in Alba might be numbered, he'll have a back-up plan for a political future outside of Alba.  He's convinced his family that he's a future First Minister, so he's not going to throw in the towel now.  The big question is whether Ash Regan will follow him to whatever his next destination is.  I suspect she may well do given her inexplicable loyalty to the guy.

UPDATE: McEleny has written a novel-length tweet lambasting MacAskill in great detail.  That, I would suggest, guarantees his departure from the party and makes it very hard for Ash Regan to stay unless she distances herself from him.  There are several parts of the email that will raise eyebrows, not least his complaint that MacAskill took action "he had no constitutional authority to do" - something that McEleny did umpteen times himself, for example by removing me from my elected position on the Constitution Review Group.

Posted by James Kelly at 12:10 PM 58 comments

A calamitous result for Alba: MacAskill narrowly wins but the party is split down the middle

Alba leadership result:

Kenny MacAskill 52%
Ash Regan 48%

I'll be honest and say I'm very surprised - I had thought the Salmond family's backing for MacAskill would make the result a foregone conclusion, but it's clear this was a very competitive race that could have gone either way.  That explains the signs of stress and arguably panic exhibited by the MacAskill camp at times.  Part of the explanation may be that Ash Regan simply looked the part during the hustings in a way that MacAskill didn't.

This is exactly the same margin that Humza Yousaf defeated Kate Forbes by, and we know that wasn't a recipe for reconciliation.  Part of the reason was that Humza was very poorly advised and acted as if the narrowness of the margin didn't matter and as if the Forbes camp could be safely ignored and marginalised.  But if MacAskill avoids that mistake, he'll run into an even bigger danger, because any compromise with Regan will probably entail adopting some of her dodgy Reform-esque ideas and also bringing Chris McEleny back into the fold, both of which would be strategically foolish.  So I'm not sure MacAskill can get it right, no matter what he does from here.

I've thought for months that the logic pointing to Alba splitting apart is pretty inexorable.  Probably all of the leading figures would say they don't want it to happen, and they might well even mean that, but when the differences are so irreconcilable it may well happen anyway.  Question number one: what will MacAskill do with "Mad Dog"?  That will tell us quite a lot.

From the rough numbers I'm hearing the turnout was fairly poor - don't take this as gospel but it sounds like it might have been in the region of 50%, which would be a lot worse than the last SNP leadership election.  That speaks volumes.

McEleny himself suffered a predictable drubbing in the depute leadership election, but I'm still trying to find the exact figures.  Maybe he'll at least have had the consolation of landing on a Primus Number, who knows.

UPDATE: The depute result was...

Neale Hanvey 78%
Chris McEleny 22%

Ouch.  And no, 22 isn't even a Primus Number.
Posted by James Kelly at 10:55 AM 74 comments

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

"Great work, Liz!" - YouGov poll shows Labour slumping to new post-election low of just 23% - SNP hold big 17-point lead in Scottish subsample

We're getting closer and closer to the point where it'll have been conclusively proved that Liz Kendall's hammering of society's most vulnerable has backfired catastrophically on Labour.  Four GB-wide polls have now been conducted since the Kendall speech, and three of them have shown a Labour slump.  Of those, two show Labour at a new post-election low, and the other shows Labour at a joint post-election low.  The fact that Labour are losing support to the Lib Dems and the Greens rather than to Reform is also consistent with the idea that the switchers are left-of-centre voters who are furious with Starmer's betrayal of Labour values.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 23rd-24th March 2025):

Labour 23% (-3)
Reform UK 22% (-2)
Conservatives 22% (-)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+2)
Greens 10% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 32%, Labour 15%, Liberal Democrats 14%, Reform UK 13%, Conservatives 11%, Greens 9%

This is an obvious contender for the most bizarre poll in British history, because even on 23% Labour retain a slight lead, which in most circumstances would be impossible.  However, that's no comfort to them, because they're not going to benefit from the convenience of the Reform/Tory vote being split down the middle indefinitely.  One way or another the right-wing vote will consolidate, meaning that if Labour don't recover from the low 20s, they'll face an unprecedented drubbing that will leave them wishing they had never replaced Jeremy Corbyn as leader.
Posted by James Kelly at 5:01 PM 31 comments

The Alba internal elections will close at 12pm today: some final thoughts

I gather that straight-talking independent UNFILTERED independent straight-talking woman Shannon Donoghue, famed for her appearances on far-right podcasts and for her straight-talking UNFILTERED "I still really fancy Chris" posts on Instagram, is very upset about non-members of Alba expressing any view at all about what might be the best (or realistically the least-worst) outcome of the Alba internal elections.  That leaves me with less than a couple of hours left to irritate her, because the polls close at 12pm.  So if there are any passing stragglers who haven't yet voted, here's my quick guide to what the Alba leadership want to happen in each race, and therefore (in most cases) what would be best avoided.

Local Government Convener

Who the leadership want to win: CHRIS CULLEN

Who should win: FRANK ANDERSON

This is a simple one, because there's an exceptionally good candidate and an exceptionally bad candidate, and one of the two is going to win.  Chris Cullen is a full member of the so-called "Corri Nostra", and as Shannon's fiancé will soon be Corri Wilson's son-in-law once the Wedding Of The Century finally takes place.  From my personal experience of him on the Constitution Review Group and the Disciplinary Committee, he's a low-grade bully and he represents all that is worst about machine politics.  By contrast, Frank Anderson is an independent thinker, has vast experience in local government, and would appear to be the exemplary candidate for the role.

Women's Convener

Who the leadership want to win: DEBBIE EWEN

Who should win: KIRSTY FRASER

Debbie Ewen presided over the kangaroo court that upheld my expulsion on 8th January.  In fairness, I gather she didn't make any attempt to take part in the vote, but everybody I spoke to about her was insistent that she's Tasmina's woman, and very closely associated with the Corri Nostra, and would only have been selected for the task to smooth the way to the predetermined outcome.

I know next to nothing about Kirsty Fraser, but those I trust are pretty clear that she's the best candidate on offer.

Equalities Convener

Who the leadership want to win: SUZANNE BLACKLEY

Who should win: UNSURE

On a personal level I actually quite liked Suzanne during our time together on the NEC and the Constitution Review Group - she comes across as a real person who doesn't read from a script.  But ultimately she does what she's told - on the CRG she was a reliable vote against democracy and transparency, and she also obediently put her name to the spurious complaint that led to my expulsion.

I can't offer any clear alternative recommendation on this one, though.  Some speak highly of Tony Osy, but I mainly associate him with some of the odder visual stunts that Alba HQ have organised.

Organisation Convener

Who the leadership want to win: JOSH ROBERTSON

Who should win: EUAN MCGLYNN

Let's not beat about the bush here: Josh Robertson is an articulate young man who dresses well, but he's also a totally unscrupulous careerist leadership drone.  His behaviour as convener of the Disciplinary Committee has been an absolute disgrace from day one - he's knowingly presided over multiple injustices at the behest of Chris McEleny and Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh. I could see in his eyes that he knew he was doing something terribly wrong, but he had obviously just set his mind to seeing it through because he reckoned the ends justified the means (the ends presumably being to bag himself a seat in the Scottish Parliament).  If you want anything to change or improve in the Alba Party, it's not going to happen with Josh in such a key role.  Euan McGlynn would be a far better choice.

Membership Support Convener

Who the leadership want to win: GAIL HENDRY

Who should win: MORGWN DAVIES

This is an absolute no-brainer - Morgwn is totally incorruptible, and when he put his name forward it looked like the leadership panicked because they realised he might well defeat Scott Fallon.  So they've gone for the nuclear option and put up A Person Of Salmond Blood against him. 

Depute Leader

Who the leadership want to win: NEALE HANVEY

Who should win: NEALE HANVEY

I have no great sympathy anymore for Neale Hanvey - in my view he has been cowardly and hypocritical by repeatedly attacking expulsions and suspensions in the Green Party while the McEleny Purges were going on in his own party, which of course he remained totally silent about.  However there's a simple principle in life that you can't really go wrong with: if Chris McEleny is standing for election, you vote for his opponent.

Leader

Who the leadership want to win: KENNY MACASKILL

Who should win: Probably MacAskill, but this is a right bastard of a decision to have to make, and I don't envy you guys

Essentially this is a Cold War-style proxy battle for control of the Alba Party between Chris McEleny on one side (Ash Regan is his proxy), and Tasmina, the Corri Nostra, and Those Of Salmond Blood on the other (their proxy is Kenny MacAskill).  I suppose if you're forced to choose between Sauron and Saruman, you just have to grit your teeth and choose Saruman, but there really isn't a good outcome here.
Posted by James Kelly at 10:26 AM 59 comments

Monday, March 24, 2025

Navel-gazing stats post: Scot Goes Pop solidifies its position as Scotland's third most-read political blog

When I changed this blog's masthead a couple of months ago to say "one of Scotland's three most-read political blogs", I thought it would be a one-month wonder and that I'd quickly have to change it back to "one of the five most-read", but in fact Stuart Campbell's favourite comparison site has shown further progress for Scot Goes Pop since then.  Now, to be clear, that comparison site may not be especially accurate - a couple of years ago it claimed that Wings was based in Glasgow (as opposed to, say, Bath), had around 15 "employees" (as opposed to, say, zero), and had an "annual turnover" of around £15 million (as opposed to, say...well, I'm not sure if the exact figure is publicly available, but even Stew's crowdfunding doesn't extend to the multi-millions).  However, as the Wings disciples treat the stats as gospel, I may as well embrace them when they're favourable, and here's how they stand at the moment...

Estimated visits for the 28 days up to 21st March:

1) Wings Over Scotland: 221,110
2) Wee Ginger Dug: 89,576
3) Scot Goes Pop: 60,830
4) Grouse Beater: 38,042
5) Talking Up Scotland: 26,721
6) Robin McAlpine: 25,824
7) Bella Caledonia: 23,558
8) Munguin's Republic: 14,586

Now, I realise that anyone who hasn't kept an eye on these numbers will probably think that's still quite a healthy lead for Wings, but in fact it's come down dramatically.  When Stew last mentioned the numbers himself in November, the monthly visits for Wings supposedly stood at 559,284 - so his readership appears to have fallen by well over half since then.  That in itself is a good reason to be sceptical about the estimates, but Stew has repeatedly insisted in the past that they're extremely accurate, so if he still believes that, I suppose it's up to him to explain why his site's popularity appears to be collapsing at lightning speed.  He also used to repeatedly boast that the non-Wings blogosphere was essentially irrelevant because Wings had more visits than all of the others combined - as you can see for yourselves, that's no longer the case (if it ever really was).  And he specifically used to boast about having around ten times as many visits as Scot Goes Pop - that's now come down to less than four times as many.  So I'm delighted to say we appear to have a somewhat healthier and more balanced blogging ecosystem these days.

Incidentally, I left Craig Murray out of the list because since October his blog has been almost exclusively about international affairs, and he's only mentioned Scottish politics once.  However, if he was included in the list, he'd be in fourth place with 55,660 visits.  In practice that may give a slightly false impression because he now duplicates his blogposts on a Substack site, so that might be artificially reducing the numbers on his main site.

To get back to the subject of Stew, he actually posted a screenshot of one of my entire blogposts on Twitter the other day - 

If he carries on like this, I'm going to have to start charging him for royalties.  But I suppose I should be grateful to him for bringing such a cracking blogpost to a slightly wider audience, even if they're mostly comprised of bots.

What does take the biscuit, though, is that within 48 hours of the above tweet, he was back to his usual schtick of "I don't stalk James, James stalks me".

Twice all year, Stew?  Well, let's look at the evidence, shall we?  Exhibit A - 

Exhibit B - Exhibit C - Exhibit D (with added paranoia) - Exhibit E - Exhibit F - Well, you get the picture. On and on and on and on it goes.  And let's not forget about "Scot Goes Pop Night" on the main Wings site back in January, when Stew lovingly archived and annotated no fewer than sixty-four posts from this blog.

It's stalking, Jim, but exactly as we know it.
Posted by James Kelly at 2:42 PM 85 comments

Sunday, March 23, 2025

More evidence of a public backlash against Labour's "Arbeit Macht Frei" reinvention as Reform take the joint lead in an Opinium poll for the first time since they were called the Brexit Party

In the immediate wake of Scotland's latest footballing collapse, all I can say is: a) come on Bruce Mouat and co, win the world championships for Scotland in two weeks' time and give us something, and b) in the meantime let's distract ourselves by taking a look at the latest GB-wide opinion poll. 

Opinium have stood out in recent months as consistently the most Labour-friendly polling firm, continuing to show Keir Starmer's party in the lead with close to 30% of the vote - until now.  This weekend's poll shows Labour slumping to a post-election low of 26%, allowing Reform to move into joint first place for the first time in an Opinium poll since the party's 2021 rebrand.  Curiously, Opinium was one of two firms (the other was YouGov) that put Reform in the outright lead in mid-2019 when they were still called the Brexit Party.

GB-wide voting intentions (Opinium, 19th-21st March 2025):

Reform UK 26% (-1)
Labour 26% (-2)
Conservatives 21% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+1)
Greens 8% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

If something has changed recently, the overwhelming likelihood is that it's Liz Kendall's House of Horrors coming back to haunt Labour.  The idea that Labour sources were punting only a few weeks ago that Starmer's strutting around on the international stage was going to produce a Falklands-style effect and lead to electoral recovery now looks like an absolute fantasy.  The Oval Office episode probably did produce a modest and temporary Labour boost, but it's since been more than offset by the Kendall factor.  Perhaps Starmer should have heeded the wisdom of his own party members and not appointed "Mrs 4%" to such a key Cabinet role.

A little caveat, though - a Techne poll was conducted at around the same time as the Opinium poll and did not show any new setback for Labour.  However, we've now had three polls since the Kendall announcement, and two of them have shown a Labour slump.
Posted by James Kelly at 7:30 PM 207 comments

My day out in Perth

So I asked a few seasoned conference-goers what they thought the status was of the SNP constitutional conference that I attended as a delegate in Perth today (or technically yesterday as it's now after midnight), and the general consensus was that if the media weren't present, it sounded very much like a completely private session and I therefore shouldn't say much about it at all apart from the fact that I was there.  Consequently this is going to be quite a short and unilluminating blogpost, but I'll pad it out with some photos of the impromptu walking tour of Perth that I did during the lunchtime break.

Several people encouraged me a few months ago to rejoin the SNP with a view to actually getting involved and trying to be a voice (or at least a vote) for both internal democratisation and a more radical strategy on independence, so that was certainly my thinking in asking to register as a delegate for the conference.  I'm sure you all know by now where I'm coming from on these issues, and that I did my level best to vote for whatever seemed to be the options that maximised democracy and transparency.  If anyone else is thinking of rejoining the SNP for similar reasons, although obviously it's a very personal decision for each individual, I certainly think it's well worth considering, because remember this isn't Alba we're talking about - the SNP are the governing party of Scotland, so even if you find yourself consistently on the losing side in internal debates, you're unlikely to look back and think it wasn't worth the bother of trying.

Although this was completely coincidental, I must say there was a neatly ironic symmetry to it - I was expelled from Alba for using my elected position on the Constitution Review Group to push hard for democratisation, and then after rejoining the SNP practically the first thing I did was register as a delegate for a constitutional reform conference.








Posted by James Kelly at 1:36 AM 88 comments
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