The very familiar pattern has continued today of good polling news for independence being coupled with, at best, mixed polling news for Humza Yousaf and the SNP. For my money the most significant finding is from Redfield & Wilton, who show that there is now public support for an independence referendum within a remarkably tight timescale - by a margin of 42% to 40%, voters want a referendum within the next year. There has also been a recovery in support for independence itself since last month -
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 3rd-5th June 2023)
This, of course, does not mean that Ipsos were wrong recently to suggest that Yes were ahead by 53% to 47%, or that there has been a sudden movement back to No since then. It's simply very different methodology producing very different results. The main methodological differences are that Redfield & Wilton collect their data via online polling panel, rather than the telephone method used by Ipsos, and that Redfield & Wilton appear to weight their results by recalled 2014 referendum vote - an increasingly questionable practice such a long time after that vote took place.
Humza Yousaf's net personal rating has bounced about a bit in Redfield & Wilton polls, and this time he has one of his 'better' results, although he's still firmly in negative territory, and behind both Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer. The one glimmer of hope is that he's almost drawn level with Starmer, which is probably deserved - whatever my severe misgivings about Yousaf, by this stage I'd suggest just about every mainstream politician in the country deserves to be beating Starmer on personal ratings.
Net personal ratings of leaders:
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