Meanwhile, this week's Opinium poll shows Reform on a new post-election high watermark of 22%. Technically, this is not an all-time high, because Reform is legally a direct continuation of the Brexit Party, and Opinium was one of two polling firms (the other was YouGov) that showed an outright lead for the Brexit Party during the late spring and early summer of 2019, with a vote share hitting 26%. However, 22% is certainly a new high for Reform since the party's rebrand.
GB-wide voting intentions (Opinium, 18th-20th December 2024):
Labour 29% (-)
Conservatives 23% (-2)
Reform UK 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-1)
Greens 10% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
The miniscule one-point gap between the Tories and Reform is the closest Reform have come to overtaking the Tories and moving into second place in any Opinium poll (or any since the Brexit Party days, I mean).
Labour's 29% may look not too bad compared to other recent polls, but in fact it's atrocious on a like-for-like comparison. Opinium has settled in as the most Labour-friendly pollster since the election, and 29% is the joint-lowest figure so far. It's only the second time a post-election Opinium poll has shown Labour below 30%.
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