A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - one of Scotland's five most-read political blogs.
Friday, November 22, 2024
By the time my so-called "disciplinary" hearing finally takes place in December, I will have been arbitrarily suspended from the Alba Party for TWO AND A HALF MONTHS purely at the whim of one man: Chris McEleny
SNP finish second in Fort William & Ardnamurchan by-election
The fourth and final by-election result for this week was released a few hours ago, and it's impossible to deny that it's a very good one for the Liberal Democrats. By the same token, it can't be denied that the Lib Dems have been polling fairly poorly in many other recent by-elections, which speaks to the factor that is both their greatest strength and their most serious weakness - ie. they're becoming ever more ghettoised in specific geographical pockets, which pays handsome dividends in first-past-the-post elections and even in STV by-elections, but which will make it very hard for them to get back to the type of broad national strength they had in the days of Jim Wallace, before they made hardline British Nationalism such a key part of their identity and branding.
Fort William & Ardnamurchan by-election result on first preference votes (21st November 2024):
SNP 25.5% (-8.0)
Greens 6.0% (-3.6)
Labour 4.5% (n/a)
Conservatives 4.4% (-5.7)
Scottish Libertarian Party 0.6% (n/a)
Small average swing in Glasgow by-election triple-header suggests SNP have a national lead over Labour of around 4.5% - bang in line with recent polling
Labour are fibbing yet again on Twitter - they're claiming to have "gained" three Glasgow City Council seats in by-elections yesterday, whereas in fact they were defending all three seats, and in two of the three wards they had even won the popular vote in 2022 (at a time when the SNP were still well ahead nationally).
Maryhill by-election result on first preference votes (21st November 2024):
SNP 29.2% (-12.9)
Reform UK 12.7% (n/a)
Greens 12.1% (-0.2)
Alba 4.2% (n/a)
Conservatives 3.2% (-5.0)
Liberal Democrats 2.7% (+0.3)
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Fresh misery for Labour in Scotland as SNP storm back into the lead in *Westminster* voting intentions, according to sizzling new Survation survey
Progress Scotland have been impressively fast in getting the data tables up for their new Survation poll - faster than Survation themselves, as it happens. Probably the most important news is that the SNP have broken out of their deadlock with Labour in the only other post-election Survation poll (conducted in September), and now have a clear lead in Westminster voting intentions.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Survation/Progress Scotland, 1st-15th November 2024)
Will the issuing of an arrest warrant for Netanyahu force European countries into a reluctant parting of the ways with the US?
In retrospect there can't be much doubt that when Jeremy Corbyn was at the height of his powers as Labour leader, when he had recently achieved a miracle result at the 2017 general election and looked impossible to dislodge, a number of right-wing figures within Labour got together privately and tried to work out how on earth they could turn the tide and get the party back under their control, and what they settled on was the construction of a largely fake 'anti-semitism crisis'. As Machiavellian strategies go, that one would have seemed particularly unpromising if it had been set out in advance, and it really is quite astonishing how comprehensively it worked. Doubtless there was the occasional example of genuine anti-semitism on the Corbynite left, as there is in all walks of life, but generally speaking what the supposed "crisis" was about was legitimate criticisms of the Israeli state being repackaged as "anti-semitism". Too many people who might reasonably have been expected to be sensible enough to see through the stunt proved all too credulous, probably due to their own underlying disdain for the Corbyn project. The momentum behind Corbyn, which briefly made him look like a Prime Minister in waiting, was put sharply into reverse, and once again he was back to being dismissed as an abnormal figure outside the bounds of political acceptability. The tactic undoubtedly contributed to the scale of his defeat in 2019, paving the way for his replacement by Starmer, who was emboldened enough to remove his predecessor from the party on bogus grounds of anti-semitism - an act of unprecedented cynicism and arrogance. And yet the political and commentator class continued acting as if nothing was amiss.
Having seemed for ages to get away with all of this Scot-free, it's hard to escape the supreme historical irony of the fact that Starmer and co were - unbeknown to them - concocting their "anti-semitism crisis" at a moment in time just before the State of Israel was about to commit the worst genocide of the 21st Century so far, thus unexpectedly putting Jeremy Corbyn very publicly on the right side of history as one of the minority of politicians who had consistently refused to accept Israel using accusations of anti-semitism as a shield to allow them to get on with oppressing a neighbouring people. By contrast, Corbyn's tormentors like Margaret Hodge and David Lammy were left as the ones being seen to have cosy selfies taken with genocidal war criminals like Isaac Herzog and Benjamin Netanyahu. The Labour leadership's initial reaction to this problem seemed to be to double down and join with Israel in accusing anyone trying to impede the genocide, or even to identify its existence, of anti-semitism. But can you really do that with the International Criminal Court, now that they have issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu?
Israel itself is of course already trying to discredit the ICC as an anti-semitic institution, motivated by a wish to distract from sexual harassment accusations against their chief prosecutor. The incoming Trump administration will doubtless join in with this smokescreen, and will probably take far more sinister actions against the ICC and its staff too. But given that the UK is a party to the ICC and fully accepts its jurisdiction, how can Starmer go down that road himself? Indeed, how can he do anything other than denounce those who try to undermine the rule of international law? In spite of the way the Labour party has mutated in recent years, there are still enough internationalists within the PLP that it's hard to imagine them indefinitely tolerating a leader who favours Trump and a wanted war criminal over the international courts.
I said a couple of weeks ago that one of the silver linings of Trump's victory is that it might force European countries, however reluctantly, to move away from slavish loyalty to US leadership. The ICC ruling may mark a parting of the ways whereby European countries will be forced to make a straight choice between loyalty to the US and adherence to an international rules-based system, because the two concepts will henceforth be opposites and fundamentally inconsistent with each other.
Bit of a problem for Keir Starmer that a big part of the ICC's rationale for issuing the arrest warrant against Netanyahu is "knowingly depriving the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival", ie. exactly what Starmer said Israel had the right to do.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) November 21, 2024
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
The Empire Flops Back: 61% of the Scottish public demand powers are transferred from London to the Scottish Parliament
This morning brings word of a new Survation poll for Angus Robertson's Progress Scotland organisation, which goes 1990s retro by asking a multi-option question on Scotland's constitutional future, rather than a straight Yes/No question on independence. The results have been given as an exclusive to the Daily Record, which is fair enough - if you can get Pravda to report on a bad news story for Labour and their Precious Union, why not? The only snag, though, is that the Record have - true to character - presented the results in a somewhat garbled manner. But as I understand it, these are the top preferences of voters: