One-quarter of those planning to vote Labour are independence supporters, says new Survation poll

I wasn't sure if the problem was at my end, but there seemed to be something wrong with the Survation data tables yesterday and I couldn't find most of the results.  It looks like a new version has been uploaded today, and it contains lots of fascinating information.  

Firstly, the question of the hour: how many Yes voters have actually drifted to Labour and just how pro-independence is the current Labour vote?  Of people who would vote Yes in a new referendum (almost half the population, remember) and who are likely to vote in the general election, 70% have stuck with the SNP, 18% would vote Labour, 6% would vote Lib Dem and 3% would vote Conservative.  But Labour's own vote breaks down as 23.3% Yes, 63.4% No, or 26.9% Yes, 73.1% No if only those who know how they would vote in a referendum are taken into account.  That means Labour have a much more complicated coalition of support in constitutional terms than any other major party.  The backbone of their support is unionist, and presumably includes at least some people who have previously voted Tory for unionist reasons and who would not be happy if Labour proved to be anything but a reliably Brit Nat party (they needn't worry!).  But Labour's hopes of seat gains largely depend on retaining a substantial minority of independence supporters, who might yet be susceptible to wooing from the SNP with a genuine offer on independence - an offer that shows no sign of materialising, admittedly.  Tokenistic discussion papers on culture in an independent Scotland aren't going to cut it.

Intriguingly, the SNP may be gaining more traction than we thought by reminding people that they are much better placed than Labour to shut out the Tories.  When asked which party they would vote for if they wanted to wipe out the Tories in Scotland, respondents in the poll were almost evenly split between Labour (36%) and the SNP (34%).  

I couldn't find voting intention figures for Alba yesterday, but they're in the data tables and they're not too bad - Alba are on 2% of the Holyrood constituency vote and 3% of the Holyrood list vote.

Of the leaders' personal ratings, the two I couldn't find yesterday were both Alba politicians - Neale Hanvey and Ash Regan.  It turns out that Neale Hanvey is on -14 and Ash Regan is on -25.  Mr Hanvey's figure is affected by the unusually high percentage (39%) who haven't heard of him, while Ms Regan's surname is misspelled in the data tables as "Reagen", which may imply that the same misspelling occurred in the questionnaire when respondents were interviewed.  Here is how the two slot into the wider league table.  Some of the figures have been very slightly adjusted since yesterday due to rounding issues.

Net ratings of leading politicians:

Anas Sarwar (Labour): -4

Keir Starmer (Labour): -6

Richard Tice (Reform UK): -10

Stephen Flynn (SNP): -11

Alex Cole-Hamilton (Liberal Democrats): -13

Neale Hanvey (Alba): -14

Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -17

Patrick Harvie (Greens): -20

Lorna Slater (Greens): -21

Humza Yousaf (SNP): -21

Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -22

Ash Regan (Alba): -25

Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -45

Alex Salmond (Alba): -47

As I noted yesterday, the public as a whole are opposed to the SNP remaining in coalition with the Greens, by a margin of 41% to 28%.  However, the data tables show that people who voted SNP at the 2019 general election take the opposite view, by a bigger margin of 52% to 22%.  The questions the SNP need to ask themselves, though, are just how scunnered is that 22%, and are those the very voters that need to be won back?

*  *  *

Before we finish, a reminder that the Scot Goes Pop opinion poll fundraiser urgently needs a boost - let's not leave it in limbo for months.  It's important that not all Scottish opinion polling is commissioned by anti-independence clients - we need to make sure that occasionally questions are asked that Yes supporters want asked.  Donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE.

However if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

SNP lead holds steady in new Survation poll - and independence support continues to ride high

There's a new full-scale Scottish poll out from Survation, which contains numbers that would have looked disastrous for the SNP a few months ago.  However, in the context of changing expectations that have moved more and more in Labour's favour, and in particular in the context of the recent Norstat poll giving Labour an outright - albeit slender - lead, it's probably fair to say the SNP will be mightily relieved to find themselves still ahead with Survation.  Indeed, nothing much seems to have changed since the last Survation poll in August, which can be interpreted as a minor win for the SNP given how Labour have piled on massive GB-wide leads since then, and especially since Christmas.

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Survation / True North, 23rd-25th January 2024):

SNP 36% (-1)

Labour 34% (-1)

Conservatives 16% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)

Seats projection (with changes from 2019 general election): SNP 23 (-25), Labour 23 (+22), Conservatives 6 (-), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)

So the SNP remain firmly in the game, and it's still conceivable they could emerge against the odds as the largest party in Scotland in terms of both votes and seats, and if they're really lucky perhaps even cling on to their status as third largest party in the Commons ahead of the Liberal Democrats.  It's equally conceivable, though, that they could drop back a few more points over the course of the campaign, be punished by the magnifying effect of first-past-the-post, and suffer a near-extinction event that could leave them with as few as two seats.  For my money, to be truly competitive they'll need to recover to having some sort of cushion over Labour before Sunak calls the election, because the official campaign period could be very difficult for them due to saturation coverage of the UK-wide Labour v Tory horserace.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 48% (-)

No 52% (-)

This continues the pattern we've seen for almost a full year now, with independence support becoming decoupled from SNP support, and with the Yes vote thus proving largely immune to the SNP's troubles.  Significant numbers of pro-independence voters have drifted to Labour, but in most cases they haven't given up on independence in the process.

There is an impressive number of meaty supplementary questions in this poll, some on matters that are rarely asked about, and some with rather startling results.  Donald Trump would be horrified to discover the remarkable level of support for onshore wind farms among the Scottish public - 60% are in favour and only 15% are opposed.  On the other hand, I'm slightly horrified that there seems to be a narrow plurality in favour of new nuclear power stations, although I'm wondering if that's an artificial result due to the tortuous way the question was posed.  Repondents were asked if they support the Scottish Government's opposition to nuclear new-build, which not only confusingly asks about support for a negative, but also potentially mixes the whole matter up with people's feelings about the Yousaf administration.  But for what it's worth, only 32% 'support the opposition' to new nuclear, while 38% take the opposite view.

The poll once again offers evidence for the partial truth of that famous scene in Yes, Minister, in which Sir Humphrey explains to Bernard that it's possible for pollsters to produce completely opposite results on the same topic by framing the question in different ways.  By a whopping margin of 58% to 21%, respondents agree that the UK government were right to grant new oil and gas licences.  But when the same sample is instead asked about the Scottish Government's strategy presuming against new oil and gas, suddenly there's a split down the middle, with 32% agreeing with the presumption against oil and gas, and 35% disagreeing.

It's often lazily stated that Alex Salmond is the most unpopular political leader in Scotland, even though he's actually very rarely asked about in polls.  This poll is one of those very rare exceptions...

Net ratings of leading politicians:

Anas Sarwar (Labour): -4

Keir Starmer (Labour): -7

Richard Tice (Reform UK): -9

Stephen Flynn (SNP): -12

Alex Cole-Hamilton (Liberal Democrats): -13

Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -17

Patrick Harvie (Greens): -20

Lorna Slater (Greens): -21

Humza Yousaf (SNP): -22

Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -23

Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -45

Alex Salmond (Alba): -46

So it turns out to be true that Mr Salmond is the least popular, but only just, and the gap between him and some of his sternest critics is not as huge as they would like you to believe.  And as I always point out, it doesn't necessarily follow that his unpopularity means Alba would be doing better with a different leader.  For a small party the biggest battle is getting noticed and the biggest danger is being ignored, and having a huge name like Mr Salmond as leader ensures that Alba make headlines in ways they would not otherwise do.

For an established party like the SNP, though, the equation is very different.  The fact that Yousaf is markedly less popular than both Starmer and Sarwar suggests the SNP are unnecessarily putting themselves at a disadvantage against Labour at the general election.  They could potentially reverse the problem by installing Kate Forbes as leader.

Rest assured that Richard Tice's seemingly not-too-bad rating is completely meaningless - it's caused by the fact that a disproportionate number of Scottish voters simply haven't heard of the man.

Incidentally, it looks like Neale Hanvey and Ash Regan were also asked about in the poll, but annoyingly I can't find their ratings in the data tables.  If anyone has more luck than I've had, please let me know.

If Kate Forbes does become First Minister this year, which is certainly a very real possibility after the general election if not before, the first thing she is likely to do is end the coalition with the Greens.  At face value, the poll supports the notion that she would be sensible to do so, with 41% opposing the SNP-Green deal and only 28% supporting it.  However, it's obviously important to see what SNP voters think, and again, I haven't yet been able to find those figures in the data tables.

Ms Forbes is by quite some distance the number one choice in this poll to replace Mr Yousaf, although just over half of respondents are unable or unwilling to express a view.

Preferences for next leader of the SNP:

Kate Forbes: 19%

Stephen Flynn: 7%

Angus Robertson: 5%

Mairi McAllan: 4%

Neil Gray: 3%

Keith Brown: 3%

Shona Robison: 2%

What leaps out here is how poorly Angus Robertson is polling in comparison to Kate Forbes, even though the two are probably roughly as well known as each other.  That could be a major problem for Mr Robertson if he does throw his hat in the ring this time.  Mairi McAllan has been punted as the other potential 'continuity candidate', and she's polling even worse than Mr Robertson, although at least she has the alibi of being much less well known at this stage than he is.

There are also Holyrood voting intention numbers in the poll...

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 35% (-4) 

Labour 31% (-3)

Conservatives 16% (-) 

Liberal Democrats 8% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 31% (+1)

Labour 29% (-1)

Conservatives 16% (+1)

Greens 9% (-)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-)

Seats projection: SNP 44 (-20), Labour 41 (+19), Conservatives 22 (-9), Liberal Democrats 12 (+8), Greens 10 (+2)

Although the seats projection looks grim, arguably the popular vote figures are not too bad for the SNP in the context of the current lowered expectations.  They've lost support on the constituency ballot but that's been almost entirely offset by a similar drop for Labour - and surprisingly they've reopened a small lead on the list, having been level with Labour in the last Survation poll.

*  *  *

Before we finish, a reminder that the Scot Goes Pop opinion poll fundraiser urgently needs a boost - let's not leave it in limbo for months.  It's important that not all Scottish opinion polling is commissioned by anti-independence clients - we need to make sure that occasionally questions are asked that Yes supporters want asked.  Donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE.

However if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Could the tide go out for Labour in Scotland?

I've rehearsed this point before, but the tragedy of the current situation is not that Labour have a very real chance of winning a majority in Scotland.  It's that Scotland is selling itself to Labour so cheaply.  There's no equivalent of the "French kiss" offer that finally brought to an end Bloc Québécois dominance.  Labour are not offering any constitutional change or progress for Scotland at all, and yet Scottish voters are seriously considering flocking back to them.

Think back to the commentary that followed the 2015 election when Labour lost Scotland.  They had been taking Scotland for granted for decades, and that complacency had finally caught up with them.  They had thought they could work with the Tories in the Better Together campaign with total impunity, and without any negative consequences to themselves, and they had been proved utterly wrong.  If they wanted to have any chance of recovering their former position, they would actually have to start listening to their ex-voters, particularly those who supported independence - you know, just as they listened to voters in Middle England in the 1990s and adjusted their policies in line with the aspirations of English voters.

And then think back to Labour's reaction to that commentary.  Listening to voters was something Labour does in England, not in Scotland.  It's the voters who are wrong in Scotland, not Labour.  It's Scottish voters who must recognise they need to change, not Labour.  And if the voters don't change, that's regrettable, but Labour losing elections would still be a price worth paying for being right about the Union.  (Can you imagine the same people, such as Ian Murray, saying that losing elections in England under Jeremy Corbyn was a pride worth paying for being right about democratic socialism?!)

The irony is that the voters in Scotland haven't actually changed - polls show that independence support is as high as ever.  Pro-independence voters are returning to Labour even though Labour are offering them nothing of what they want.  How fortunate it must feel to be a Scottish Labour candidate - you don't have to earn votes, you don't have to make painful policy sacrifices to win votes.  Unlike in England, no reflection or listening is required - you just do nothing and the votes still fly at you for no particular reason.

I suppose any country gets the politicians and politics it deserves, and if Scotland votes Labour in these circumstances, the lesson Labour will learn is that they can go back to treating Scotland with just as much contempt as they did prior to 2015, and can expect to keep being rewarded as they were in the old days.

However, there's nothing more important in politics than how reality matches up to expectations.  Objectively, the 2017 election was a superb result for the SNP, it was a landslide win on a par with Mrs Thatcher's in 1987, and yet it felt like a catastrophe because the SNP and others were expecting so much better.  Scottish Labour are now getting into the potentially dangerous position where they and others are starting to expect to win a majority - and if they fall short of that, the psychological impact could be immense.  They may have fallen in love with the idea of a Scottish comeback to a sufficient extent that being deprived of that might shock them enough to start thinking the unthinkable, and wondering if listening to Scottish voters might actually be necessary after all.

The problem is, of course, that the expectations of a Labour win are there for a very good reason - Labour already seem to have a slight lead in a contest which will be a 'home fixture' for themselves and an 'away fixture' for the SNP, and thus you'd think any further swing is more likely to be pro-Labour rather than pro-SNP.  However, there are a couple of caveats on that.  Firstly, pollsters are not unanimous in showing a Labour lead in Scotland - the most recent Ipsos poll showed a decent lead for the SNP, and as the only telephone pollster in Scotland, it's not inconceivable that Ipsos are right and others are wrong.  And secondly, even if Labour do have the small lead reported by Norstat, they've achieved it on the coat-tails of absolutely gargantuan leads over the Tories at GB level.  It's at least possible that if those GB leads slip, Labour could suffer a corresponding slip in Scotland, sufficient to nudge the SNP back into a small lead.  And while it's probably impossible for the Tories to overturn Labour's GB lead, it's certainly within the realms of imagination that the lead could be trimmed from, say, 20-25 points to 10-15.  That kind of partial reversal of the tide might yet be enough to make all the difference in Scotland.  

However, the SNP would be incredibly foolish to bank on that, and they really need to start considering major strategic changes of their own.

*  *  *

Before we finish, a reminder that the Scot Goes Pop opinion poll fundraiser urgently needs a boost - let's not leave it in limbo for months.  It's important that not all Scottish opinion polling is commissioned by anti-independence clients - we need to make sure that occasionally questions are asked that Yes supporters want asked.  Donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE.

However if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Alba committee election results - this time I've been elected!

At this point I can now say a heartfelt thank you for the patience of non-Alba readers of this blog over the last few months while I was writing a disproportionate number of self-promotion posts for the Alba internal elections, which proved to be a longer process than anyone anticipated due to the re-run of the office bearer elections and the consequent postponement of the NEC elections.  I'm delighted and somewhat relieved to be able to report that my persistence did actually pay off in the end - over the weekend I was successfully elected to the Finance & Audit Committee, the Disciplinary Committee, and the Constitution Review Group.  The full list of everyone elected has now been published on the Alba website and can be found HERE (although you'll almost certainly need to be logged in).

I'm also pleased to report that there has been much more transparency than there was after the NEC ballot last month, and this time the full results, including every single stage of the complicated Single Transferable Vote count process, have been sent to the candidates.  It looks like the intention is that the same full information will be made available to all party members too, although at time of writing that hasn't happened yet.

So I'm returning to the Finance & Audit Committee after a gap of just over a year (I was previously on it as an NEC nominee), and I'm joining the Disciplinary Committee for the first time.  On the other hand, I'm no longer a member of the Appeals Committee, which I've been an elected member of since last February, because of course once I was elected to the Disciplinary Committee, I was no longer eligible to be a candidate for the Appeals Committee.  So of the four committees/groups I was a candidate for, the only one I missed out on was the Conference Committee - and in the immortal words that Meatloaf very nearly sang, "three out of four ain't bad".

Looking back over the last few weeks, my result in the Membership Support Convener election was probably better than I expected and I came within a whisker of being elected, my result in the ordinary NEC ballot was probably worse than I expected, and my result in these latest committee elections was probably better than I expected.  So the lesson is perhaps to always set preconceptions to one side, because each election is a fresh event and there's never any way of knowing which way it will go.

Congratulations to all of the other successful candidates, and I look forward to working with them over the coming year.