SNP lead holds steady in new Survation poll - and independence support continues to ride high

There's a new full-scale Scottish poll out from Survation, which contains numbers that would have looked disastrous for the SNP a few months ago.  However, in the context of changing expectations that have moved more and more in Labour's favour, and in particular in the context of the recent Norstat poll giving Labour an outright - albeit slender - lead, it's probably fair to say the SNP will be mightily relieved to find themselves still ahead with Survation.  Indeed, nothing much seems to have changed since the last Survation poll in August, which can be interpreted as a minor win for the SNP given how Labour have piled on massive GB-wide leads since then, and especially since Christmas.

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Survation / True North, 23rd-25th January 2024):

SNP 36% (-1)

Labour 34% (-1)

Conservatives 16% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)

Seats projection (with changes from 2019 general election): SNP 23 (-25), Labour 23 (+22), Conservatives 6 (-), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)

So the SNP remain firmly in the game, and it's still conceivable they could emerge against the odds as the largest party in Scotland in terms of both votes and seats, and if they're really lucky perhaps even cling on to their status as third largest party in the Commons ahead of the Liberal Democrats.  It's equally conceivable, though, that they could drop back a few more points over the course of the campaign, be punished by the magnifying effect of first-past-the-post, and suffer a near-extinction event that could leave them with as few as two seats.  For my money, to be truly competitive they'll need to recover to having some sort of cushion over Labour before Sunak calls the election, because the official campaign period could be very difficult for them due to saturation coverage of the UK-wide Labour v Tory horserace.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 48% (-)

No 52% (-)

This continues the pattern we've seen for almost a full year now, with independence support becoming decoupled from SNP support, and with the Yes vote thus proving largely immune to the SNP's troubles.  Significant numbers of pro-independence voters have drifted to Labour, but in most cases they haven't given up on independence in the process.

There is an impressive number of meaty supplementary questions in this poll, some on matters that are rarely asked about, and some with rather startling results.  Donald Trump would be horrified to discover the remarkable level of support for onshore wind farms among the Scottish public - 60% are in favour and only 15% are opposed.  On the other hand, I'm slightly horrified that there seems to be a narrow plurality in favour of new nuclear power stations, although I'm wondering if that's an artificial result due to the tortuous way the question was posed.  Repondents were asked if they support the Scottish Government's opposition to nuclear new-build, which not only confusingly asks about support for a negative, but also potentially mixes the whole matter up with people's feelings about the Yousaf administration.  But for what it's worth, only 32% 'support the opposition' to new nuclear, while 38% take the opposite view.

The poll once again offers evidence for the partial truth of that famous scene in Yes, Minister, in which Sir Humphrey explains to Bernard that it's possible for pollsters to produce completely opposite results on the same topic by framing the question in different ways.  By a whopping margin of 58% to 21%, respondents agree that the UK government were right to grant new oil and gas licences.  But when the same sample is instead asked about the Scottish Government's strategy presuming against new oil and gas, suddenly there's a split down the middle, with 32% agreeing with the presumption against oil and gas, and 35% disagreeing.

It's often lazily stated that Alex Salmond is the most unpopular political leader in Scotland, even though he's actually very rarely asked about in polls.  This poll is one of those very rare exceptions...

Net ratings of leading politicians:

Anas Sarwar (Labour): -4

Keir Starmer (Labour): -7

Richard Tice (Reform UK): -9

Stephen Flynn (SNP): -12

Alex Cole-Hamilton (Liberal Democrats): -13

Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -17

Patrick Harvie (Greens): -20

Lorna Slater (Greens): -21

Humza Yousaf (SNP): -22

Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -23

Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -45

Alex Salmond (Alba): -46

So it turns out to be true that Mr Salmond is the least popular, but only just, and the gap between him and some of his sternest critics is not as huge as they would like you to believe.  And as I always point out, it doesn't necessarily follow that his unpopularity means Alba would be doing better with a different leader.  For a small party the biggest battle is getting noticed and the biggest danger is being ignored, and having a huge name like Mr Salmond as leader ensures that Alba make headlines in ways they would not otherwise do.

For an established party like the SNP, though, the equation is very different.  The fact that Yousaf is markedly less popular than both Starmer and Sarwar suggests the SNP are unnecessarily putting themselves at a disadvantage against Labour at the general election.  They could potentially reverse the problem by installing Kate Forbes as leader.

Rest assured that Richard Tice's seemingly not-too-bad rating is completely meaningless - it's caused by the fact that a disproportionate number of Scottish voters simply haven't heard of the man.

Incidentally, it looks like Neale Hanvey and Ash Regan were also asked about in the poll, but annoyingly I can't find their ratings in the data tables.  If anyone has more luck than I've had, please let me know.

If Kate Forbes does become First Minister this year, which is certainly a very real possibility after the general election if not before, the first thing she is likely to do is end the coalition with the Greens.  At face value, the poll supports the notion that she would be sensible to do so, with 41% opposing the SNP-Green deal and only 28% supporting it.  However, it's obviously important to see what SNP voters think, and again, I haven't yet been able to find those figures in the data tables.

Ms Forbes is by quite some distance the number one choice in this poll to replace Mr Yousaf, although just over half of respondents are unable or unwilling to express a view.

Preferences for next leader of the SNP:

Kate Forbes: 19%

Stephen Flynn: 7%

Angus Robertson: 5%

Mairi McAllan: 4%

Neil Gray: 3%

Keith Brown: 3%

Shona Robison: 2%

What leaps out here is how poorly Angus Robertson is polling in comparison to Kate Forbes, even though the two are probably roughly as well known as each other.  That could be a major problem for Mr Robertson if he does throw his hat in the ring this time.  Mairi McAllan has been punted as the other potential 'continuity candidate', and she's polling even worse than Mr Robertson, although at least she has the alibi of being much less well known at this stage than he is.

There are also Holyrood voting intention numbers in the poll...

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 35% (-4) 

Labour 31% (-3)

Conservatives 16% (-) 

Liberal Democrats 8% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 31% (+1)

Labour 29% (-1)

Conservatives 16% (+1)

Greens 9% (-)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-)

Seats projection: SNP 44 (-20), Labour 41 (+19), Conservatives 22 (-9), Liberal Democrats 12 (+8), Greens 10 (+2)

Although the seats projection looks grim, arguably the popular vote figures are not too bad for the SNP in the context of the current lowered expectations.  They've lost support on the constituency ballot but that's been almost entirely offset by a similar drop for Labour - and surprisingly they've reopened a small lead on the list, having been level with Labour in the last Survation poll.

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