A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - one of Scotland's five most-read political blogs.
Saturday, June 29, 2024
The moderation question
Friday, June 28, 2024
Thoughts on the latest Survation MRP seats projection
The Daily Record revise their endorsement from "Labour" to "It's Complicated, here's TV's Carol Vorderman to explain" - the list of constituencies where *even the Daily bloody Record* are endorsing the SNP
I was ready to be furious with Carol Vorderman when I saw her on the front page of the Daily Record today calling for "tactical voting to stop the Tories", because I was convinced the Record had roped her into a "Vow" type stunt to con people into voting Labour with dodgy "maths". But to be fair to her, she's promoting a tactical voting website which from the couple of example postcodes I've just entered may possibly be giving reasonably honest advice - ie. vote SNP in SNP-Tory marginals, and vote however you like in other seats that the Tories can't win.
The Record have even emphasised the point by listing the seats and candidates where a tactical SNP vote is recommended. So, for the avoidance of doubt, here are the Scottish constituencies where even the Daily bloody Record, even Paul bloody Hutcheon, are endorsing the SNP -
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East (formerly Banff & Buchan, ie. David Duguid's seat)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Dumfries and Galloway
Gordon and Buchan (formerly Gordon, ie. Richard Thomson's seat)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Perth and Kinross-shire (formerly Perth and North Perthshire, ie. Pete Wishart's seat)
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey (formerly Moray, ie. Douglas Ross' seat)
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Admittedly that's a suspiciously short list that excludes a number of seats where the SNP are pretty obviously the best anti-Tory tactical option, but it's a start. I said the other day that you could tell from the language the Record used when endorsing Labour that they were nervous they might be overplaying their hand and might suffer from independence supporting readers voting with their feet. I'm wondering if the pushback they've received from readers is at the higher end of expectations and if today is a way of trying to placate independence supporters before sales start to drop. It'll be interesting to see whether the polling day front page is out-and-out Labour propaganda or a bit more qualified.
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I've previewed the constituency races in Mid Dunbartonshire and Livingston for The National. You can read the articles HERE and HERE.
Thursday, June 27, 2024
*puts on Canadian accent* - it's another *terrrrrr*-ible night for the Conservatives - they slip to just 11% of the Scottish vote in YouGov poll
Scottish voting intentions (YouGov, 20th-25th June 2024):
YouGov polling suggests Starmer will fall well short of the 40% vote share Corbyn took in 2017. So the question now is: will he at least save face by not falling below the 32% Corbyn took in 2019?
Team Starmer in TOTAL DISARRAY this morning as SNP draw LEVEL in Scotland in staggering Savanta survey
Well, this is a turn up for the books. There's been no particular evidence in recent times that Savanta are an unusually SNP-friendly pollster, so these numbers have to be taken seriously - although bear in mind that one swallow does not make a summer, and in any individual poll there's always a chance of an illusory trend caused by margin of error noise.
Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Savanta, 21st-26th June 2024)
Scottish Tories may be on course for their all-time worst general election result - beating even the previous record low set in 2015 under Ruth Davidson
Although we're primarily wrapped up in the SNP-Labour battle for seats, it's important we still set aside some time between now and polling day to enjoy the predicament of the Scottish Conservative party. It wasn't that long ago that the Tory vote seemed to be inexplicably firming up in Scotland and we were worried the SNP would really struggle against them in marginal seats. There were a couple of polls last October that had the Tories in the low 20s and the SNP in the low 30s, which would have been a recipe for calamity. Even a few weeks ago, the Tories were regularly polling around 17%.
But the fears seem to be easing now. The last eight polls have had the Tories in the 13-15% range with 14% being the most common figure. And although Farage's return as Reform UK leader is not the whole explanation for that, it does seem to be a significant factor because the downturn coincided with his comeback and there has been a corresponding increase in the Reform vote, reaching a new peak of 8% in yesterday's Survation poll.
This has led to a rather amusing anti-Farage meltdown among the diehard unionist nutters on Twitter such as Effie Deans and "Erudite For Unity", who are demanding Reform UK voters must dutifully trot off back to the Tories to "stop the SNP". I'm not sure anyone will really be listening at this stage, though, because anger against the Tories among right-wingers seems to be just as great as among left-wingers - although not necessarily for the same reasons.
14% would be the lowest Scottish Tory vote share in the democratic era, beating the previous record of 14.9% which was amusingly set under Ruth Davidson's leadership in 2015. A total wipeout of Tory seats is also now conceivable. Yesterday's WeThink MRP projection has the Tories losing every single seat they hold, with four going to the SNP, although there are two seats where the Labour vote swells enough to jump from third or fourth place to first.
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I've previewed the constituency race in Lothian East for The National - you can read the article HERE.
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Methinks the WeThink MRP has just shown the SNP on course for an OVERALL MAJORITY
Now Wings aspires to become death, the destroyer of independence. But he's not Oppenheimer, he's just a bog standard Pied Piper, and frankly it's time to send him packing.
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Memo to the Daily Record: you cannot say "this election is not about independence" just 24 hours after your own political editor angrily insisted that Westminster elections are the ONLY elections in which anyone is allowed to vote for independence. That is a direct and total contradiction, and you are treating your readers like idiots.
On one of the previous threads, someone posted about focus group findings suggesting that voters who were swithering between the SNP and Labour were most concerned about whether it was better to bolster Labour's majority and have Scottish MPs from the governing party, or whether it was best to have SNP MPs as an independent Scottish voice in the House of Commons. I found that encouraging in a way because it strongly implies that nobody buys into the line that Labour are at risk of not winning in England and that Scottish votes might be decisive and that "this is an opportunity that Scotland can't afford to miss" and all the rest of the standard Sarwar guff. But clearly the Daily Record, the most contemptible newspaper on the planet (a view I've consistently held since before I even started blogging in 2008), still think trying to treat Scottish voters like idiots in that way is a promising strategy, and in their front page endorsement of Labour have basically instructed the Jocks to "eat your cereal, stop thinking about independence and give the Tories a kicking". As a visual aid for this Orwellian-style "two minutes hate", a rogue's gallery of Tories with demon eyes is presented so you can see who you're supposed to be kicking. And what makes this truly Orwellian, of course, is that the real motivation for the endorsement of Labour is the Record editorial team's undying hatred of the SNP and burning desire to see the SNP defeated and humiliated. They don't give a monkey's about the Tories and could quite happily tolerate living under Tory rule - as they proved in 2014 by helpfully arranging another ten years of Tory rule by backing the No campaign in the independence referendum with the fraudulent "Vow".
In their tweet tonight, the Record claim that it's been fourteen years since they last backed Labour. Anyone who follows their output may reasonably conclude that they've kept their supposed non-support for Labour over the last fourteen years exceptionally well-hidden. If they've refrained from making an official editorial endorsement during that time, it was only due to a worry over sales, because they knew that many of their readers had become passionately pro-independence and pro-SNP during the indyref campaign and would probably instantly walk with their feet if the Record reverted to the explicit "be a sheep, baa-aa, vote Labour" stuff. The editorial team have been gagging for the earliest possible moment that they could get away with resuming normal service, and they think they've found it - but you can tell they're not quite sure and are nervous they may be miscalculating and jumping the gun. The giveaway is that the opening words of the endorsement are "this election is not about independence", imploring independence supporters to absurdly believe that they can somehow take a holiday from what they believe in and can vote against independence by voting Labour without that having any actual effect or consequence.
But wait - is this election really not about independence? How can that be, given that only yesterday the Record's political editor Paul Hutcheon told us that John Swinney has no credibility in claiming a mandate for an independence referendum from the Holyrood election of 2021, because the Supreme Court had "ruled unequivocally a referendum is a matter for Westminster, not Holyrood". In other words, he is not just saying that Westminster elections are about independence, but that Westminster elections are the ONLY elections that are about independence. According to Hutcheon, you are literally NOT ALLOWED to vote for independence or for a referendum on independence in any other type of election - you have to do it in a Westminster general election, because that's your one and only shot. If you're an independence supporter, Hutcheon is telling you that when a general election comes up, by Christ you do not muck around - you clear your diaries and use that election for the purpose God has ordained, namely to express your view on whether Scotland should be an independent country.
So the Daily Record is factually wrong to tell its readers that this election is not about independence, and we have that on the Highest Authority imaginable - no, not God, someone far more senior, it's Mr Paul Hutcheon, political editor of the Daily Record. Congratulations, chaps, you managed to pre-contradict the entire thrust of your logic for endorsing Labour. That takes some talent, and we salute you.
(And yes, we know what the get-out clause will be - although general elections can be about independence, not all of them are, and this is one of the exceptions. You can tell it's one of the exceptions because the Daily Record says it is. Don't even bother to try to think for yourselves, guys - you are sheep and that's why the Record exists. If you're ever allowed to vote for independence, the Record will inform you in plenty of time. However, don't wait up for that, because the Record have decided you will never be allowed to vote for independence. They just haven't told you yet.)
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I've been continuing to write constituency profiles for The National, and here are the links for Glasgow South, Glasgow North East, Glenrothes & Mid Fife, and Gordon & Buchan.
Sunday, June 23, 2024
Two more constituency previews
No polls today as far as I can see, and no decent football results either, but I can at least offer you two more constituency profiles that I've written for The National. Glasgow South West is HERE and Glasgow West is HERE.
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Although it's too late to register to vote, it's not too late to make sure that people who are registered also have the correct form of photo ID ready for 4th July. If you know any independence supporter who may not have a passport or a photo driving licence, send them HERE to check if they have another type of acceptable photo ID, and if turns out they don't, send them HERE before the deadline of 5pm on Wednesday to apply for a Voter Authority Certificate.
Please, Scotland fans, if you meant it about rising and being a nation again, vote for a pro-independence party when you get home and let's do it for real. We can still get something right this summer.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) June 23, 2024
Remember we are, in fact, the European champions. Of curling.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) June 23, 2024
Would the SNP be in a better or worse position in the polls if Humza Yousaf was still leader?
Given that it's the penultimate weekend of the election campaign, I'm more than a bit surprised that there's no sign of any full-scale Scottish polls in the Sunday papers yet, although admittedly sometimes it becomes clear by mid-morning on a Sunday that there is one but it hadn't percolated through to social media overnight. So we'll see, but I've had a look at the Scottish subsamples from the most recent GB polls, and it's the familiar pattern - the SNP vote seems to be resilient, but Labour's modest lead is stubbornly still there.
Which raises an interesting question - what would be happening now if John Swinney hadn't replaced Humza Yousaf? It wasn't until after Yousaf stepped down that Labour really opened up some clear water, so it's reasonable to ask the question of whether the SNP would currently be polling better if he was still in harness - not because he was popular, but because the trauma of a leadership change does seem to have negatively affected the party's popularity.
Well, one thing's for sure - if Yousaf had dumped the Greens from government and then somehow clung to power, the SNP would be in a much worse position than they are now. His personal ratings had always been low, but they still fell off a cliff after his strategic misjudgement, and if he had ploughed on into this campaign the SNP could have been facing something close to a wipeout by this point.
So the only meaningful question is whether the situation would have been better if Yousaf was still there without having ditched the Greens. That's much more difficult to say, but for what it's worth every instinct in my body suggests that even if the SNP had started the formal campaign period roughly level with Labour, they would then have gone backwards over the course of the campaign because Yousaf's unsuitability as leader would have made itself felt. He probably would have been quite gaffe-prone on the campaign trail, and I think in particular the Question Time format the other night would have been ghastly for him. It's the kind of setting where in the past he's come across as arrogant and really put people off.
It'll always be impossible to prove, but my guess is that the SNP are in a stronger position to face this election due to the leadership change, however intuitively unlikely that may seem.
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Last night, I decided to take a whole evening off from writing constituency profiles and blogging, and I went to see the midnight cinema showing of the Doctor Who season finale. In a way it was quite an odd thing to do, as I hadn't actually seen any of the season until then. I found myself stepping from one of my home universes into another, because suddenly I wasn't surrounded by chatter about "Grangemouth" and "women won't wheesht" and "notional majorities" and instead it was "Big Finish audios" and "sonic screwdrivers" and "jeezo, I draw the line at Time And The Rani". Oh, and there was a much higher percentage of people with blue hair than at an average Alba branch meeting.
My latest two constituency profiles for The National are Glasgow North East and Glasgow South - they don't seem to be on the main part of the website, but they were in the print edition, which means you can find them in the digital edition if you're a subscriber.
How many people who belt out "but we can still rise now and be the nation again" in Germany tomorrow night will then come home to vote Labour to put separatism back in its box and for tough fiscal rules with Rachel Reeves? I don't think that's *quite* what Roy Williamson meant?
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) June 22, 2024
* * *Can anyone direct me to an interview in which Peter says to Douglas Ross "you asked people to vote Tory to stop Indyref 2, and they didn't, they elected the SNP. Surely that means they voted for Indyref 2 and it must be granted?" https://t.co/02llJAl2Kl
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) June 21, 2024
Although it's too late to register to vote, it's not too late to make sure that people who are registered also have the correct form of photo ID ready for 4th July. If you know any independence supporter who may not have a passport or a photo driving licence, send them HERE to check if they have another type of acceptable photo ID, and if turns out they don't, send them HERE before the deadline of 5pm on Wednesday to apply for a Voter Authority Certificate.