But there are also two GB-wide MRP projections which are much more encouraging - and one of them, incredibly, has the SNP on course for an outright majority. Remember 29 or above is a majority of Scottish seats.
WeThink MRP seats projection (GB-wide):
Labour 465
Conservatives 76
Liberal Democrats 52
SNP 29
Plaid Cymru 3
Reform UK 3
Greens 3
Find Out Now MRP seats projection (GB-wide):
Labour 450
Conservatives 71
Liberal Democrats 60
SNP 24
Reform UK 18
Plaid Cymru 4
Greens 4
The Find Out Now number for the SNP is roughly stable from where it was at the start of the campaign, so as I've said a few times, at least that suggests the SNP haven't had a bad campaign and the wheels haven't come off. Although 24 wouldn't be a majority, it must be fairly close to making the SNP the largest single party in Scotland.
* * *
I've previewed the constituency races in Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire for The National - you can read the articles HERE and HERE.
The Survation poll at first feels like bad news but it's basically no change from their last one apart from a fall in Tory support which might help the SNP in the North East and Borders.
ReplyDeleteThe word on the ground (Edinburgh here) from Labour and SNP members is Edinburgh North/Leith and Edinburgh East/Musselburgh are genuinely close contests. Maybe Labour underplaying SNP overplaying I don't know but it still feels competitive.
My two cents.
Edinburgh North and East are definitely dicy. Fun fact: Edinburgh North has the most evenly split unionist vote in all of Scotland, going by my arithmetic. Could be a big swinger on the night.
DeleteI'd be Amazed if both don't go Labour just relaying what I've been told.
DeleteGiven Leith and Portobello are both rather hipster trendy places. Very pro LGBT, lot of Palestine flags I can imagine this Labour party which is clearly pitching to Brexit England might not go down well.
Problem is the SNP vote will fall too.
Leith is a strange place, the Lib Dems almost took it once!!!
Aye. The near-miss candidate was a school friend. He also narrowly missed out to AC Hamilton for Edinburgh West selection, and ultimately the party leadership, poor chap. Still on Edinburgh council now.
DeleteMr Lang?
DeleteOne of several people in the Lib Dems who isn't a big fan of ACH I believe.
In fact most most of the old Edinburgh West Lib Dems are conspicuous by their absence when it comes to support for ACH and Jardine.
Margaret Smith might even be pro independence now.
Aye. He was already a politics nerd at school, with strong opinions on election systems, as was the Lib Dem raison d’ĂȘtre at the time. He definitely didn’t favour Scottish independence—I mind an argument or two—but he was smart and droll and a bit of a natural. Everyone at school expected him to be our MP someday, the teachers too, especially once his party took the seat with Donald Gorrie.
DeleteQuite what the Edinburgh West Lib Dems had in mind when they picked carpetbagger Cole Hamilton over their local boy, I’ve no idea. Must have been the disappointment of his life.
ACH and Jardine. Nasty pair. Wouldn’t trust them as far as I could throw them.
DeleteThe trouble is even retaining the majority of Scottish seats can still just as fairly be described as losing the most seats of any party in Scotland. And we all know what the SNP did when they suffered such a setback in 2016. “Tone down the Indy, folks. Ruth proved her point.”
ReplyDeleteIt's different this time because the SNP would be outperforming expectations on 29, whereas in 2017 they were underperforming expectations on 35.
Delete@11:18, very true. Any loss in seats by the SNP is going to be pounced on by unionists. Though obviously the smaller the losses the better. Going to be damage limitation.
DeleteNo doubt the pro Indy/pro union vote split will be scrutinised too.
That vote split is an interesting point.
DeleteThe only election “Yes” (SNP+Greens+independence supporting parties and independents) has come close to “No” (Lab+Lib+Tory+Farage+Galloway etc.) was 2015, when the SNP won a tsunami of seats but fell just short of putting Yes over the total No vote.
Even at our electoral peak, we were still a little short.
Once we’re getting more combined votes for Yes than No in elections, we’re well on the way to going for a plebiscite election and winning it. I know I’m sounding gradualist here, which I certainly do not see myself as being. That’s because I believe the current SNP is so “gradualist” that we’ll never get there. Where is all their trying?
Getting the Yes parties total over 50% needs a vision of independence and the passion to put it proudly centre of all of Scottish politics. It won’t just happen for us while our leaders shy away from it.
And once we’re there, our momentum will be unstoppable.
They got over 50% in the last list Scottish Parliament vote.
DeleteSo it has been done.
Then defacto was called
10 polls in a row showing majority.
Then carnage plus Stewart McDonald et al pouting scorn on it when it was at its height. Now pushing indy to keep his salary.
The SNP and Green vote in 2015 was over the 50%. So why do posters keep saying there has never been >50% in an election.
DeleteThe NORSTAT poll has the SNP on 4% at UK level (field 24-26 Jun), and there was a 5% from IPSOS (field 21-24 Jun) the other day. Things do in fact look stable and may in fact be picking up.
ReplyDeleteI'm now 80% minded to put in my postal vote and I'll make my mind up on Saturday. Probably SNP.
I believe you can take your postal ballot into the local polling place on election day itself.
DeleteSNP is the only way to go now, I'm afraid Alex Salmond has busted himself wide open with his latest honest revelations that all he ever wanted was to destroy the SNP, and that will not help his vote share in the way he thinks it will, there's a lot of disgust about on this
ReplyDeleteGood grief! He said THAT?
DeleteNo.
DeleteI sometimes worry about the sanity of people on here. Salmond said Alba was targeting that 15/20% of voters who the polls say are pro independence but don't intend to vote SNP. He probably won't succeed but what's wrong with trying? The SNP have lost those voters anyway.
DeleteJohn Swinney has revealed his true colours by saying if he lived in England he'd vote Reform UK. There's a lot of disgust about on this.
Delete77th squadie says!
DeleteI saw Alex Salmond on TV and that's more or less what he said
DeleteIn other words, it's NOT what he saidđ
Delete6.53
DeleteAbsolutely correct. It's not difficult to understand.
I wouldn't recommend anybody bother with voting Alba in a Westminster election. They're unlikely to pick up more than 2 seats, if any, and would serve instead to split the pro independence vote.
DeleteAt Holyrood however, go ham. 1 SNP, 2 alba; 1 alba, 2 SNP; whatever, so long as you pick only pro indy and by extension pro Scottish parties.
Dr Jim posting his lies again@ 12.11am.
DeleteAnon at 9.12. Alba are winning zero seats. Vote Alba get unionist.
DeleteI doubt that John Swinney said that.
ReplyDeleteHes a 77th psy ops squadie
DeleteI know Salmond was out to get Nicola Sturgeon but he's gone too far now
DeleteI can't believe Salmond exposed himself on live TV either saying Sturgeon should 'suck on this'.
DeleteLet’s face it, he’s got form for that kind of thing.
DeleteHow does MRP polls work? Are they based on a national percentage and then worked from there?
ReplyDeleteI agree with James, the Survation poll is concerning.
ReplyDeleteWho are “WeThink” though? Are they related to “More in Common”?
Good to see Find Out Now finally getting a poll out, was beginning to think they’d gone to the wall.
Talking to some ex snp members last night. Some will now vote snp to make sure labour don’t sneak in by the back door.
ReplyDeleteMuch better savanta poll today.
ReplyDelete34% each. Tories 14%. Interesting as they have been giving Labour 4/5 point leads.
I 've reached the point when I'm now 'poll drunk'. I said at the srart of the campaign that given the massive amount of flak that has come the SNP's way over the past 18 months, I would regard the party winning 20 seats as it having done not too badly. I would be delighted with anything in excess of that figure. What I can say, however, is that having chapped a lot of doors of previously identified SNP postal voters within my own constituency during the past week, I have been pleasantly surprised by the positive responses in most of the cases.
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be a modest swing back. Hopefully enough to avoid complete disaster , and then a bloodies nose in the list vote 2026.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP don't really have much in the way of list seats to bloody
DeleteIf the SNP start losing lots of constutuency seats, they'll end up with plenty of list seats.
DeleteIt would be somewhat ironic if people finally start to consider using their List vote for another party just when the SNP will probably need their List vote more than ever, given that they are not expected to perform as well in the Constituency ballot as they have in previous elections.
DeleteI think that 2026 will be an entirely different ball game from that of this election. I also hope that the independence supporting parties will have had the good sense to start talking to one another again in a civilised manner and agree a joint strategy for the road ahead.
DeleteHand shrimp. If the votes are for a list only party it sends a message and gives leverage.
Delete"I also hope that the independence supporting parties will have had the good sense to start talking to one another again in a civilised manner and agree a joint strategy for the road ahead"
DeleteI don't see that happening.
When the 2026 election comes around there will be desperation and panic as polls will likely show that the SNP have dropped in the Constituency ballot so it will be more vital for them to acquire votes on the List.
But at the same time there will be a campaign by others to vote for a different Party on the List due to all the wasted votes in previous elections when the SNP were more popular.
The messaging from the SNP will be that we MUST vote SNP 1&2 or risk losing Holyrood to the unionists. But obviously a lot of people won't be willing to do that and there will be anger directed at them as a result (similarly to how it's being directed at those not willing to vote SNP in this election).
I dont have anger at those not willing to vote SNP in this election,just disappointment and concern,since an SNP majority on the 4th July,could create a strong momentum for a defacto election in 2026.I understand the feelings of others but my sisapointment relates to the possibility of a lost opportunity.
DeleteAnon @2:49 PM
DeleteI think people are just tired and have a 'the boy who cried wolf' attitude to the SNP now more than anything.
If you look into it their 2024 General Election plan for independence is just a rehash of the one they used in the 2017 General Election.
thought experiment :
ReplyDeletethe SNP come out and say - a vote for us is a vote for independence
independence
independence
independence
first, second, third and fourth - we are the one-issue guys and this is what we are into
vote for us
so, in the election turnout is 95%, and the SNP win 65% of the vote and 59/59 westminster seats, a clear and overwhelming mandate for indy.
What happens next?
a - we get indy, because the SNP are unstoppable
b - we fail to get indy and the SNP gave it their best shot; they even went to jail and are on hunger strike, ukgov has to shutdown holyrood and introduce direct rule
c - we don't get indy, because the SNP DON'T EVEN TRY
The days of the SNP getting near 50% of the vote, far less 65%, are long long gone.
DeleteAnon at 12.38. Lots of effort. Poor content. Must do better. What happened to your old name?
DeleteDont worry,they will try.
ReplyDeleteI see the SNP cultists are loyal; at least with Jim Jones there were free drinks.
ReplyDeleteAre you waiting for a Section 30, hiding behind the comet?