One of the regular features of recent Scottish subsamples in GB-wide polls is just how appallingly badly the Scottish Tories are doing - it's not uncommon to see them behind the Liberal Democrats in fifth place. It's unlikely that they'll be wiped out completely at next year's Holyrood election, ie. they're not polling as poorly as Alba yet, but I don't think that can be totally ruled out any longer. Each of the three defections/departures from the Tory MSP ranks has created a sense of reverse momentum, and has added to an impression of a party on the way out and that no longer serves any real purpose. Right-wing voters can follow Graham Simpson to Reform UK (and most of them already have done), while the more liberal type of voter won over by Ruth Davidson ten years ago has a natural home in the Liberal Democrats, who are more than ultra-unionist enough to cater for even the most frothing Brit Nat "liberal".
Reform now have their second MSP, but it might as well be their first given that Michelle Bannatyne was attached to the party in what feels like a different world. They now have a Scottish figurehead of sorts to build their campaign and organisation around - but I still think any Reform success next year is likely to indirectly work in the SNP's favour.
