Thanks to Cassandra on Twitter for pointing out to me that two new GB-wide polls have been published since my last update. They won't attract much attention so soon after a general election, but this is actually the period in the electoral cycle when polls can tell you something really important and surprising, and I think that's the case here. Labour should be very, very concerned. A month after a supposedly "landslide" triumph, they should be basking in a honeymoon as Tony Blair was at the equivalent point in time, but they're not. They're one point down on what was already an underwhelming vote share from 4th July.
Omnisis GB-wide poll (7th-8th August 2024):
Scottish subsample: Labour 33%, SNP 25%, Conservatives 19%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Reform UK 8%, Greens 6%
OK, we don't have proportional representation for Westminster elections, so even on a reduced vote share Labour would win another landslide on these numbers. But of course the point is that the split in the opposition vote is not going to remain static over the coming years. If and when the right-of-centre vote starts coalescing behind either the Tories or Reform UK, 33% would be a losing vote share for Labour. Indeed, it's almost identical to Jeremy Corbyn's vote in the heavy 2019 defeat. If this is as good as it gets for Labour, Keir Starmer could quite easily be a one-term wonder.
Scotland's disgraceful mainstream media have been making a none-too-subtle attempt to use the general election result to bury the SNP once and for all. In such a difficult context, the SNP were never going to be setting the heather alight in these early polls, and I think they'll settle for being ahead in one of the two Scottish subsamples. What matters by far the most to them is that there's no Labour honeymoon, because that means once the post-election dust settles, there'll be a golden opportunity to re-establish themselves as Scotland's leading party as the 2026 Holyrood election approaches.
