If Scotland voted for independence from the rest of the UK and asked to join the European Union, would you support or oppose allowing it to do so?
Respondents in France:
Support: 63%
Oppose: 13%
Respondents in Germany:
Support: 68%
Oppose: 10%
Respondents in Denmark:
Support: 75%
Oppose: 6%
Respondents in Spain:
Support: 65%
Oppose: 13%
Respondents in Italy:
Support: 64%
Oppose: 11%
Is this just an unremarkable result, because EU countries tend to take an attitude of "the more the merrier" to the accession of new member states? Well, not necessarily - there would be plenty of opposition to Turkey joining, and I suspect there might also be some ambivalence to a few specific eastern European countries, such as perhaps Albania or Georgia. One of the many eccentric hobby-horses of Alba's expelled Expeller-in-Chief Chris McEleny is that the EU should bar its doors to eastern European countries like Georgia and start admitting North African countries instead. (In which case why is it called the European Union, Chris?!)
What leaps out the most, of course, is that the result in Spain is bang in line with all of the other countries, which doesn't lend much support to the age-old unionist scare story that Spain would veto an independent Scotland's EU membership to prevent Catalonia and the Basque Country from getting any ideas. OK, it's the Spanish government rather than the Spanish people that would be making the decision, but the idea of a veto never made much sense anyway - even the former right-wing Spanish government pointed out that if Scotland ever got to the point of applying for EU membership, that would mean the UK had recognised its independence, and thus the situation wouldn't be comparable to Catalonia because the Spanish constitution forbids the recognition of a Catalan state. The latter bit is democratically indefensible, but it does mean Scotland is highly unlikely to ever suffer because of Spain's domestic politics. Remember that Spain did not veto the EU accession of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which were all part of the Soviet Union until 1991. It did not veto the accession of Croatia and Slovenia, which were both part of Yugoslavia until 1991. And it did not veto the accession of the Czech Republic (now called Czechia) and Slovakia, which were both part of Czechoslovakia until 1992.
Incidentally, in the British sample (which of course is roughly 85% comprised of residents of England), there is a plurality in favour of allowing Scotland to rejoin the EU if it wishes, but it's much lower than in the continental countries -
Respondents in Great Britain:
Support: 46%
Oppose: 32%
Presumably this lower support reflects a deep-seated resentment against Scotland in certain quarters of the English public - ie. 'why should those whinging wretches be given anything?', etc, etc. Curious, isn't it, that unionists tell us that our most natural partner for a political union is the country that arguably dislikes us the most.
The poll's main questions give the lie to any notion that there is a realistic path to the UK as a whole rejoining the EU. On the face of it, there is overwhelming support among the British public for EU membership, but the follow-up question about whether Britain should be allowed to resume its former opt-outs shows an even bigger majority in favour of the opt-outs - which I suspect will be interpreted in European capitals as meaning that any resurgence in pro-Europeanism in England is only skin-deep, and that if the UK ever rejoined, the campaign to leave again would start on day one. There's hardly going to be much enthusiasm on the continent for putting Europe through that kind of torture all over again.
Among the five continental countries polled by YouGov, only Denmark is in favour of allowing Britain to rejoin on the basis of its previous opt-outs - which makes perfect sense, because Denmark has its own bespoke opt-outs, negotiated after the 1992 Maastricht referendum.
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