Blue Sky Thinking

Over the last few weeks, several people have encouraged me to set up a Bluesky account and to promote my blogposts there.  My view is that Twitter (I refuse to call it "X") remains much more important than Bluesky and I'd be foolish to abandon it - but on the other hand there's no getting away from the fact that a lot of left-of-centre people have moved across to Bluesky, and therefore the engagement rate for people like me on Twitter isn't what it used to be even a couple of years ago.  So I may be missing a trick by not having a presence on both sites.

I can't say I'm filled with enthusiasm at the thought of duplicating posts on two sites, but what I've done for the time being is set up a Bluesky account so people can follow me if they wish.  If I get to, say, 100 followers, I may start promoting my blogposts there.

So if you're on Bluesky, you can follow me HERE.

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I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 a couple of weeks ago, and so far the running total stands at £1281, meaning that 19% of the target of £6800 has been raised.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE.  Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Labour slump to new post-election low in Opinium poll - plus Alba civil war intensifies as Ash Regan blasts the MacAskill leadership as a "vacuum" that has led to "chaos" and "drift"

In a sense, this weekend's Opinium poll has bucked the trend of a Reform UK bandwagon, because it shows Reform down a point on two weeks ago.  However, that's statistically insignificant, and Reform are still at a higher level than in all but one of Opinium's previous polls.  Where the recent trend is clearly continuing is in the ongoing slippage of Labour, who have dropped to a post-election low of 27% with Opinium, and remain only one point ahead of Reform.  Bear in mind that Opinium have been pretty much the most Labour-friendly pollster in recent times, so 27% is worse for Labour in an Opinium poll than it would be in a poll from another firm.

GB-wide voting intentions (Opinium, 5th-7th February 2025):

Labour 27% (-1)

Reform UK 26% (-1)

Conservatives 22% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 11% (-)

Greens 8% (-)

SNP 3% (-)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

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Anecdotally, I've heard that Ash Regan's interview with LBC went down very poorly with rank-and-file Alba Party members, probably because it was seen as disloyalty to the MacAskill leadership and perhaps also to the Salmond family.  However, she's doubled down now by posting a TikTok video with the same message - she starts by describing the MacAskill leadership (although she doesn't mention him by name) as a "vacuum" which is causing "drift" and "chaos".  If consistency is maintained, that presumably ought to lead to her referral to the Disciplinary Committee for possible expulsion from the party, because her ally McEleny has over the last year been using any sort of minor criticism of the leadership as an all-purpose excuse to pretend "injury" has been caused to the party and to get people expelled.  Rather brazenly, though, in the very next breath Ms Regan says she wants to become leader so she can "restore discipline".  The subtext seems to be "lots and lots of discipline, please, but not for me or Chris, obviously".

And the question must surely be asked - after a year of the McEleny Purges, and in the context of the party leader and the General Secretary currently both using the disciplinary machinery to try to get each other expelled, just how much more "discipline" can the Alba Party actually take?  What it really needs now, surely, is a good deal less "discipline", and the introduction of normal, mature politics whereby people resolve their policy and strategy differences by debating each other and then a vote being held.  Quaint, I know, but I do believe the concept of democracy has some real potential if it's ever given a chance.

It's also worth noting that Ms Regan keeps using the soundbite "Scotland needs a real independence party not a sideshow" but without specifying that the party in question necessarily has to be Alba.  That's arguably consistent with my theory that she and McEleny have a Plan B up their sleeve of launching a new party if MacAskill wins the leadership election.