Friday, December 11, 2009

Populus subsample : SNP close gap to just three points

A second Scottish subsample in the space of two days has put the SNP well into the thirties - but unlike Angus Reid yesterday, Populus suggests that the party has practically wiped out Labour's big lead from last month. Here are the full figures -

Labour 37% (-7)
SNP 34% (+8)
Conservatives 13% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 12% (+5)
Others 4% (-2)

The SNP's showing is even more encouraging when you bear in mind that it takes place in the context of the best UK-wide poll for Labour in some twelve months. And - it almost goes without saying - this is another terrible subsample for the Scottish Conservatives.

Calling all believers in rational climate science...

Since the blogger 'Plato Says' (now a favourite at the court of James, the Great Pretender - Delingpole, that is) is urging her readers to email their 'spontaneous' thoughts on "climategate" (yawn) to the Met Office's Chief Scientist, I thought I might try to balance things up slightly by also providing Julia Slingo's email address here.

I'm guessing the readers of a left-of-centre, pro-SNP blog might be slightly more persuaded by rational climate science than Plato's audience, so feel free to take her advice and tell Ms Sligo exactly what you think. Perhaps something along the lines of Michael Mates' legendary parting words to Asil Nadir might be in order - "don't let the b*****s get you down..."

And yes, this is, as you may have deduced, a shameless (if nominal) act of retribution on my part against the said Ms Plato, who launched into a bizarre unprovoked personal attack on me yesterday afternoon at, before in her trademark fashion reverting instantly to passive-aggressive mode. Perhaps being accused of lacking a sense of humour ought to be water off a duck's back, but in this case it's a touch galling a) because it comes from someone who evidently thinks of herself as a great wit on the basis of no discernible evidence whatsoever (yes, the similarities to Mr. James 'How to Be Right' Delingpole himself are indeed striking), and b) because as any long-term readers of this blog will know, while I admittedly lack the capacity for brilliant one-liners, I do regularly indulge myself in the whimsical and the ridiculous. (And if AM2 feels his ears burning, it's just a coincidence.) Indeed, if anything, I've probably indulged that habit much more often over on the pages of than I have here. Having thought about it yesterday, I think the example I'm most proud of is this one from just over a year ago, in response to an exhaustive list of occasionally mis-spelt Labour "achievements in office" -

"'Develotion' - that sounds like what Peter Andre would come up with if he put the words ‘devolution’ and ‘devotion’ together for a song title.
'Scraping hereditary peers in the House of Lords' - Sounds painful but it's all they deserved. I imagine William Hague had a ringside seat when it was Lord Cranborne's turn to be scraped."

So why have my best efforts apparently gone so shamefully unnoticed all this time? My guess is that posters on the now rabidly Tory-dominated (it wasn't always thus) have truly come to believe that the term 'sense of humour' is indistinguishable in meaning from the finding of ever-more-inventive ways of pointing out that Gordon Brown 'is a retard' and only has sight in one eye. We've heard a lot about the 'Cybernat' problem recently - but if we were to put together a "Comedy of - Classic Jokes from the CyberTories" compilation...well, what can I say. In the immortal words of Rowan Atkinson in Blackadder, "if I appear not to be laughing, it's only because I fear my sides would split".

The most generous thing I can say is that it might turn out to be rather reminiscent of Peter Serafinowicz's 'James Bond - Licence to Tell Jokes' DVD.

Angus Reid : SNP soar to 33%

After three successive Scottish subsamples from the new series of UK-wide Angus Reid polls that showed remarkable consistency, the fourth has produced completely different - and in some respects frankly implausible - figures. The Liberal Democrats have slumped nine points to a totally unrealistic 7%. An additional significant fall for the Tories opens the way for a dramatic increase in support for both Labour and the SNP, although with the gap between the two parties staying virtually unchanged from last time. Here are the full figures -

Labour 42% (+9)
SNP 33% (+8)
Conservatives 14% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-9)
Others 4% (-4)

Although the figures have to be taken with a huge dose of salt, the fact that this fits into a pattern of recent dismal showings for the Scottish Tories cannot be ignored. At this stage, it really does look like the next party of government could have a sub-20% mandate from Scots.

Monday, December 7, 2009

SNP up with ICM, but down with YouGov

The detailed figures from Saturday evening's two UK-wide polls have been released, and once again there are mixed fortunes for the SNP. The YouGov Scottish subsample curiously shows a decline of support for Labour, the SNP and the Conservatives, with the Liberal Democrats enjoying a six-point jump. Here are the full figures -

Labour 34% (-2)
SNP 22% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 19% (+6)
Conservatives 19% (-3)
Others 5% (+1)

The raw 22% share is clearly disappointing for the SNP, although the overall Labour lead is once again notably more modest than the most recent full-scale YouGov poll indicated. After the previous YouGov subsample had offered a rare glimmer of hope to the Scottish Tories, they once again return to a more familiar sub-20 rating.

ICM do not provide a specific Scottish breakdown, instead lumping the country together with northern England. Here are the latest subsample figures for that highly artificial 'region' -

Labour 38% (-1)
Conservatives 27% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (-2)
SNP 10% (+1)
Others 10% (+4)

This is much better news for the SNP, with 10% being at the upper end of their normal range of support in the ICM 'northern region'.