Scottish voting intentions (YouGov, 20th-25th June 2024):
Labour 35% (+1)
SNP 29% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+3)
Conservatives 11% (-2)
Reform UK 8% (+1)
Greens 5% (-1)
There have now been three Scottish polls in the space of just over 24 hours. Two have shown the Labour lead increasing by two points, and the other showed a five-point Labour lead being completely wiped out. Put all that together and it may be that the position has been relatively stable. (And remember it's only a few weeks since YouGov showed the SNP ten points behind, so the ship has been steadied since then.)
Here are the positives:
* The Scottish Tories look utterly doomed as never before. Because a significant minority of Scottish seats are straight SNP-Tory battles, that should dramatically reduce the risk of the worst case scenario of the SNP being returned to single figures.
* The SNP's deficit is small enough that a modest recovery over the last week of campaigning could have a telling effect in terms of seats.
* It remains the case that Ipsos telephone polls show significantly better results for the SNP than online polls. It's easy to forget that, because phone polls are so much fewer in number, but polling accuracy is not determined by majority vote. Who is getting it right is still an open question.
I don't think I can ever recall so many wildly varying polls not just in Scotland but across the whole of the UK.
ReplyDeleteAlthough it would be remarkable if the Tories did come fourth with no seats, this poll does seem a bit out of kilter. The pollsters earn their living from this stuff so perhaps they will converge on an agreed picture in the last few days.
Most postal votes will be heading in by now, which is likely to be about 25% of the turnout so a fair chunk of the result is already set in stone.
Unless cheating and corruption comes into play. We have seen before,votes not being counted properly at the referendum. Wouldn't surprise me if snp votes are lost.
Delete"We have seen before,votes not being counted properly at the referendum"
DeleteNo we haven't.
Er excuse me but yes we have
DeleteI've noticed that too. The results are very volatile.
DeleteI wondered whether the volatility is a result of an increase in the Don't Knows and Won't Says. By excluding them in the headline figures your going to have fewer respondents expressing a preference which means that you would get larger variations in those preferences.
Or perhaps people dislike politicians so much now that they're also messing with the pollsters.
Or perhaps people are so scunnered that they are genuinely switching between parties.
Can we cut out the tinfoil hat vote rigging nonsense. It can destroy the credibility of a site. .
DeleteWGD numpties have been saying polls are false for some time now. They went in to overdrive when the SNP polling started to fall.
DeleteAs anon at 8.24am says " It can destroy the credibility of a site ." WGD didnae really have much credibility left mind you. A lot more WGD numpties posting their shit on SGP these days.
@8:24,
DeleteWell said.
Surely we’re better than Trump!
KC, as I have explained to you many, many times, you are not better than Trump.
DeleteThe principle that every pub needs at least one alcoholic seems to be the sole reason for allowing IFS his position of insulting all and sundry
DeleteThere is no limit on the amount of idiots allowed to post on SGP - an example being anon @ 10.16am.
DeleteAnon at 9.16 does have a point. It’s also good for the hit count, so I’m happy to just ignore him. James’s site is valuable and if hit numbers help it continue, all good.
DeleteMust try harder.
ReplyDeleteNo I do not want a burger.
DeleteNot accurate
ReplyDeleteWhat for, bro?
DeleteThe voters will be the judge of that.
ReplyDeleteLike hell they will.
DeleteBut it's true.
ReplyDeleteNo it's not
DeleteApparently the PollAndBangWe survey included independence numbers, which haven't been mentioned:
ReplyDeleteYes: 57%
No: 43%
PollAndBangWe, 23rd-24th June, 1012 voters interviewed
Wow! Great Pole. Thanks for sharing
DeleteBut not such a Great Moldovan.
DeleteLOL! Wonderful humor.
DeleteWhere did you see that? Is it genuine? Encouraging if so.
Delete57% yes means the gap between independence supporters and the SNP is even greater than previously thought.
DeleteTo Anonymous at 1:17PM, usually a figure of 42% 'Yes' means that DKs haven't been excluded. I've certainly not seen any Survation poll that low in a very long time.
DeleteThat is 46% discounting DKs so a few percentage points less than almost all the other polls. That probably tells us something although what I'm not sure.
DeleteAnon at 2:16 PM, that usually equates to a Yes/No split, discounting DKs, somewhere in the region of 48/52, which is pretty typical of most Survation polls as I recall.
DeleteSwinney has finished strongly on this pole.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney is now the highest rated political leader in Britain
DeletePeople seem to like his grown up man approach
Alex Salmond is rated even lower than Rishi Sunak btw
Sorry but have to disagree.
DeleteSwinney was embarrassing on FMQs yesterday, saying Scotland was still suffering from the Thatcher era.
Truly desperate stuff.
Agree with those praising Swinney.
DeleteWe are still suffering from Thatherism and it's fallout , nae doot aboot it . Only the ignorant or folk of a Britnat Tory/ Labour mentality would argue against that.
DeleteThe legacy of Thatcherism stretches well beyond her political career. Blair saw himself as a successor to Thatcher and Cameron and Osborne and austerity was classic Thatcherism. We have never really broken free of it apart arguablyfor a few years under Brown and Darling and they were scuppered by the international banking crisis.
DeleteAnon at 8.58. Grow up and feck off back to WOS. Silly billy boy.
DeleteDid the PollAndBangWe poll show an independence question? In amongst its extensive results, I gave up.
ReplyDeleteIt did indeed, though for some reason not mentioned on here so far. In fairness, am sure James is very busy at the moment and will get round to discussing it.
DeleteNumbers were,
Yes 57%
No 43%
Thanks. Without a Poll And Bang what are We, so I say thank you for the PollAndBangWe, for giving it to me.
DeleteYup, the Linewal list confirms, PollAndBangWe, 23rd-24th June, 1012 voters interviewed.
DeleteOMG! Those are amazing numbers for Yes!
DeleteHistory. Has. Been. Made.
DeleteAs the English despise democracy in the colonies, they also do in their elections, with a FPTP system that could have Labour on 500 seats with only 40 % of the votes, a system that just Putin might approve
ReplyDeleteThis validates my point last year that Alba should've gone right-wing and focused not on taking SNP list voters, but on taking Tory voters.
ReplyDeleteThe Scottish branch of the party has always been vulnerable to the whims of their head office, but without a credible alternative for right-wing voters in Scotland. Now they're all set to break off if the UK Tories elects Badenoch or another Faragist. The window of opportunity has closed and the low-hanging fruit has been scooped up by Labour and Reform with the once and future Scottish Unionist Party in a far better position to win them back.
A right-wing pivot after the initial centre-left/broad church pitch fell flat wouldn't have worked as well as doing it from the start, but even that small opportunity of success has gone.
I’m slightly more positive than you but it’s largely my heart and not my head. How ironic it will be if the Record lends a hand to SNP candidates. Postal vote already in. Nose held, and SNP voted for. Holyrood may well be different.
DeleteIf the SNP win another mandate, westminster's position will be untenable.
ReplyDeleteLOL
Delete