Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Sensational Redfield & Wilton poll reveals that most voters in Scotland want an independence referendum WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR - piling massive pressure on Humza Yousaf to listen to SNP members and bring back the Sturgeon plan of a de facto referendum

The very familiar pattern has continued today of good polling news for independence being coupled with, at best, mixed polling news for Humza Yousaf and the SNP. For my money the most significant finding is from Redfield & Wilton, who show that there is now public support for an independence referendum within a remarkably tight timescale - by a margin of 42% to 40%, voters want a referendum within the next year.   There has also been a recovery in support for independence itself since last month - 

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 3rd-5th June 2023)

Yes 46% (+1)
No 54% (-1)

This, of course, does not mean that Ipsos were wrong recently to suggest that Yes were ahead by 53% to 47%, or that there has been a sudden movement back to No since then.  It's simply very different methodology producing very different results.  The main methodological differences are that Redfield & Wilton collect their data via online polling panel, rather than the telephone method used by Ipsos, and that Redfield & Wilton appear to weight their results by recalled 2014 referendum vote - an increasingly questionable practice such a long time after that vote took place.

Humza Yousaf's net personal rating has bounced about a bit in Redfield & Wilton polls, and this time he has one of his 'better' results, although he's still firmly in negative territory, and behind both Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer.  The one glimmer of hope is that he's almost drawn level with Starmer, which is probably deserved - whatever my severe misgivings about Yousaf, by this stage I'd suggest just about every mainstream politician in the country deserves to be beating Starmer on personal ratings.

Net personal ratings of leaders:

Anas Sarwar (Labour): +4
Keir Starmer (Labour): -3
Humza Yousaf (SNP): -5
Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -13
Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -22

The new poll is the second this year to suggest the SNP have lost their outright lead on the Holyrood list ballot, although their lead on the constituency ballot has increased by default due to a slippage in Labour's support.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 36% (-)
Labour 29% (-3)
Conservatives 21% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Greens 2% (-)
Reform UK 2% (-)
Alba 1% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 25% (-)
Labour 25% (-2)
Conservatives 19% (-)
Greens 14% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-)
Alba 3% (+1)
Reform UK 3% (+1)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election):  SNP 42 (-22), Labour 39 (+17), Conservatives 30 (-1), Greens 12 (+4), Liberal Democrats 6 (+2)

In explaining why he had decided to accept Humza Yousaf's offer of a senior job, Kevin Pringle yesterday put forward a 'glass half-full' interpretation of the polls, and suggested that the SNP were a party with a future as well as a past because they remained the natural party of government at devolved level, even under Humza Yousaf.  You'd have to say that looks a highly dubious claim on these numbers.  Yes, if the projection above was exactly right, the SNP would probably just about cling on as a minority government, but this is just one snapshot at one particular moment in time, and their position looks incredibly precarious.  And perhaps more to the point, SNP supporters want more than to be the natural party of government - they want a pro-independence majority at Holyrood (surely an absolute prerequisite if independence is to be won) to be the natural state of affairs too.  The majority of polls since Yousaf became leader, including this one, have suggested the pro-indy majority would be lost.

What's more, there's deeply troubling news today from a separate MRP projection conducted by Focaldata, which suggests for the first time that the SNP are on course to slip into second place behind Labour in terms of Scottish seats at Westminster.  Labour are projected to take 31 Scottish seats, with the SNP taking just 26.  That's the sort of outlook that ought to be leading sensible SNP parliamentarians to ponder how the self-indulgence of choosing as unpopular a leader as Yousaf can be reversed in time for the general election.

On a more positive note, the Redfield & Wilton poll finds huge public backing for the Deposit Return Scheme, and huge support for glass to be included in it.  The public also prefer the Scottish version of DRS to the proposed UK-wide version.  I suspect those numbers will stun a few people on the unionist side.  The Scottish Government have been mocked for choosing two unpromising dividing lines with London, ie. the GRR and DRS, and while there is ample polling evidence to suggest the mockery is fully justified in respect of the GRR, it's beginning to look as if the reverse may be true in respect of DRS, and that Yousaf may have stumbled onto slightly more fertile territory for a constitutional dispute.

* * *

I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2023 a few weeks ago, and the running total has now passed £1500.  The target figure is £8500, however, so there's still quite some distance to travel.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue by making a donation, please click HERE.  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.


  1. Encouraging poll.

    1. Encouraging for unionists yes.

  2. Which book of memoirs will be published first?

    Nicola Sturgeon - How I delivered Independence for the people of Scotland - OOPs .

    Iain Blackford - How I kept my country Scotland in the EU - OOPs.

  3. Sarwar on +4 lol. Don't see that surviving a Holyrood election when people actually get introduced to him

  4. And as much as it pains to admit, Douglas Ross is doing well too but Sarwar is creepy and off-putting and the LidDem is just very annoying.

  5. "Kevin Pringle ... suggested that the SNP were a party with a future as well as a past because they remained the natural party of government at devolved level"

    Cobblers to that, I don't vote SNP for devolution, I vote SNP for Indy, and if they keep banging on about how great devolution is and they should be devolution and devolution and bang bang sounds like time for an Olufsen or two to drown out idiots like Pringle, they can forget my vote.

  6. What exactly do the 54% think they are actually part of. I live in England and not a single one of my friends or colleagues could care less about Scotland in a Union. I am totally perplexed by unionist Scots clinging to a union that the my English friends simply do not care about. I appreciate that my sample of English voters may be small but they actually are not interested in Scotland, or Unionists or the SNP or whoever. Maybe someone can supply me with info but how many ex prime ministers apart from Brown ,who sees it as a Guardian cash cow, ever mentioned the precious union after they have left office ?. Seriously Scotland the English ain't that interested in you. My friends and colleagues have more important things to worry about than some outdated historical union.

    1. That's because you and your friends don't know that without Scotland all your lights go out, your government doesn't tell you that

  7. From the National about Katy Loudon the SNP candidate picked by whom the article doesn't say (members perhaps though who knows these days).

    "With the limited powers at our disposal, the SNP is taking steps to improve the lives of people across Scotland and mitigate the worst of Tory rule ... "

    Not as an MP you won't, you do know the difference between an MP and an MSP do you?

    "but families are continuing to be let down by a Westminster system ..."

    Yes, that's more like a job for an SNP MP. Do something about it!

    " ... with two right wing, pro Brexit parties in London at its centre."

    Oh now you've gone and spoilt that glimmer of understanding. It's getting rid of Westminster you'd be elected for by most Independence supporters, not changing its politics from right to left from left to right and the animals couldn't tell the difference left good right bad left right shake it all about 2 legs bad 4 legs good ...

    "The SNP is the only party offering a positive vision for a fairer, greener, wealthier future and an end to damaging Tory governments for good.

    And all without even muttering that word again - INDEPENDENCE.

    Try it: "Independence", you might like it!

    (previous posting mine as well by the way, hope you don't mind me ripping the SNP less of a good one than it actually deserves.

  8. Very balanced interesting article about Alex Salmond in Saturday's Irish Times.

  9. Only the SNP could appoint a minister for independence after 16 years in power and he comes out with guff about a multi choice referendum. The SNP liars should just rename his position as the Minister for Devolution.

    Only WGD numpties and carrot eaters believe the SNP have any interest in delivering independence.

    One minute the SNP liars are saying the convention will decide the way forward to achieve independence next minute they say it will only be a talking shop and no decisions will be made.

    One minute the SNP liars are saying the convention is only for SNP members the next minute the big dug himself, the charlatan second only to Sturgeon, is attending.

    I wouldn't vote for the SNP even if they paid me. They now rank alongside the parliamentarians of 1707 who sold out Scotland.

    1. One minute the SNP minister for independence is punting the possibility of more devolution the next minute Yousaf is saying devolution isn't working as it is being undermined by Westminster.
      Only idiots would place their hopes of independence in the hands of these SNP leaders and some of them can be found every day on WGD.