In an abrupt break with the seemingly endless sequence of dismal poll findings for the Scottish Tories, the latest YouGov subsample places them at the giddy heights of 26%, marginally edging the SNP out for second place. Given the consistency of the recent low figures for the party, this looks very much like a statistical quirk thrown up by the inherently huge margin of error in subsamples (although of course you never know). There was a similar quirk earlier in the year, when a YouGov subsample had the Tories holding the joint lead in Scotland. Here are the full figures -
Labour 37% (+3)
Conservatives 26% (+7)
SNP 24% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-11)
Others 5% (-)
It's worth noting that, in spite of the SNP slipping into third place, the gap between themselves and Labour is - once again - lower than that shown by the last full-scale Scottish YouGov poll.
Interesting figures, but I suspect of very little value due to the small numbers involved in a Scottish sub sample. What is the margin for error on that size......=/- 10%?
ReplyDeleteHi, Tris. The sample size for this particular subsample was 190, which according to the ComRes calculator translates to a margin of error of about 7%. However, that doesn't take into account the fact that the figures may not be properly weighted.
ReplyDeleteYou're right, there's absolutely no conclusion that can be drawn from a single subsample - it's highly unlikely the Tories are currently in second place, for instance - but I do think a small amount can be gleaned from the figures if you look at the pattern of several subsamples over a period of time. One thing that irritates me slightly is when people say in Snow-esque fashion "these are just a bit of fun", as if the numbers are totally random and meaningless - if that was really the case we'd regularly be seeing the Liberal Democrats or even the Greens in the lead!
Al;righty James,
ReplyDeleteThanks for that information.... +/- 7% renders them pretty meaningless, I guess. In theory the Tories could be as low as 19% and the SNP as high as 31%... although I appreciate that that's unlikely.
LOL... the word verification for this post was clober.... how appropriate!
But I take your point about the Libs and the Greens. Looking up there... they are down an amazing 11%. If I were Tavish, even given the margin for error here I would be worried.....