A very good point: while Yes were ahead, the BBC's references to polling news were, shall we say, distinctly rationed. Now all of a sudden THE FLOODGATES HAVE OPENED. What could possibly have caused this change of policy?https://t.co/MT82JoEUHs
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 7, 2021
Remember Nick Eardley explaining the BBC’s excuse for not talking about Scottish independence leading the polls was it was a single poll and there was not yet a pattern to report.
— Phantom Power (@PhantomPower14) March 7, 2021
This unweighted ComRes poll is a real puzzle. If it was an online poll, presumably the weighting calculation shouldn't have taken long at all. But even if lack of time was the issue, that means it was an incomplete poll and Scotland on Sunday shouldn't have published it.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 7, 2021
There have been a couple of occasions when I commissioned polls and was given a provisional indication of how the Yes/No figures were shaping up, but I would never have dreamed of publishing those numbers. I hope that isn't what Scotland on Sunday did - that would be amateurish.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 7, 2021
I actually don't want the SNP to have the pro-indy majority all to themselves because they'll bottle it, again. If they have control over what goes to the vote at Holyrood, it'll be the same sabotaged "let's ask permission from Westminster" rubbish which the right of self determination has no requirement for.
ReplyDeleteWhat's needed is a crucial contingent of independent pro-independence members to insist that parliament is asked to mandate a free choice of sovereignty and international status be provided to the people of Scotland with no outside interference.
That is our right and Westminster has no permission to give and never did. The narrative that 'permission', agreement or cooperatioin from Westminster was ever needed was a always a lie.
International recognition against the prior state’s opposition is very hard indeed. Catalonia came nowhere close. But even a successful state to be recognised, Kosovo, which was subject to genocide from its former nation, had a bumpy path to international acceptance.
DeleteWikipedia:
On 18 February 2008 the EU presidency announced after a day of intense talks between foreign ministers that member countries were free to decide individually whether to recognise Kosovo's independence. The majority of EU member states have recognised Kosovo, but Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain have not.[74] Some Spanish people (scholars or from the Spanish Government or opposition parties) challenged the comparison made by the Basque Government that way of Kosovo's independence could be a path for the independence of the Basque Country and Catalonia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Kosovo_declaration_of_independence#Reaction_within_the_European_Union
Literal genocide by Serbs on Kosovans. And Serbia’s claim over them is still recognised by most of the world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Kosovo
This? Easy?
Peoples have the right to choose their sovereignty and international status. It's not "utter nonsense" - it's the law. It's UK law by direct consequence of the UK's legal obligation to uphold the UN Charter which provides the right of self determination of peoples. We already have Westminster's approval of the process because the UK committed to uphold the UN charter.
Delete"Utter nonsense" is what it is to pretend we need to ask permission.
What is your problem with accepting the law as it is stated is what the law is? It's not "utter nonsense" and it's not too good to be true. It's just true. The UK has certainly acknowledged that the people of Scotland has the right to self determination because that's what September 18th, 2014 was all about. Pretending that right expires for generations before being eligible for democratic mandate, again, is utter nonsense.
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DeleteStop imagining this fantasy that Westminster is a deciding factor. It isn't. The right of self determination doesn't depend on Westminster's opinion either way. Westminster is a bystander to it all.It's interested, sure... but it's not really involved until AFTER the choice is made.
DeleteJohn Muir - Scotland is not Catalonia. Scotland is one of the world's oldest nations.
DeleteScotland is in a Union and the right to leave is well established.
Did the UK say we need permission of the EU to leave - NO.
The cringe is a terrible affliction on the nation of Scotland.
Going independent without Westminster's agreement while possible, would be an utter nightmare. How will Scotland collect tax from UK companies based outside Scotland? HMCR will demand taxes, the companies can't pay taxes twice - thye'll pay the tax authority that has the most power over them - by numbers alone that's rUK.
DeleteMy own PAYE taxes are paid by a US company with its UK headquarters in England - how are my taxes going to get to the Scottish government?
They're deducted at source - so its not like i can withhold them and send a cheque to the Scottish government.
Bigiain - a fine example of the cringe.
DeletePiflaps - if you believe that then you believe Scotland is being held prisoner by Westminster and because you think the prison door is locked there is no point in checking to see if it is. Cringe it is then.
DeleteI've no cringe, for Scotland or Catalonia for that matter. I'm just pointing to the sorry state of affairs out in the global community, as it exists. Declaring independence, de jure, by international law, is no guarantee of winning it, de facto, as an accepted independent state. Realpolitik is real!
DeleteI think the drop in support for both Independence and the SNP is now pretty well established.
ReplyDeleteI am concerned that this trend has some way to go before it reaches a plateau ... and we're still 9 weeks out from the election.
The SNP leadership has played a good hand very, very badly.
The SNP is now riven by the Sturgeon/Salmond fallout. Running a campaign with Nicola posing as Scotland's very own Eva Peron is only likely to deepen these divisions.
The numbers are encouraging but it is very close to a rerun of 2016.
ReplyDeleteI guess we will just have to wait and see how the two inquiries go and how the public respond to the improving situation regarding Covid. Scotland has had a lower infection rate and much lower deaths per million than England and Wales (and about 22 other countries). There is strong narrative there. The Holyrood inquiry will likely split on party lines albeit making recommendations on segregation of duties (although the opposition members will be put raging). The Hamilton one I have no idea. Even if it is determined that she misled parliament because she knew 4 days earlier I'm not convinced that is heinous enough to step down. No one is suggesting she tried to cover for Salmond which is what the opposition were decidedly moist about a year ago.
It is what it is. The party needs to put its big boy and girl pants on and put a decent shift in. I would rather be working from 48% than where any of the opposition parties are.
Indy support is dropping. So SNP winning in May will result in another excuse to delay. We need to build support kind of guff.
ReplyDeleteIndy was in the lead for at least a year and the SNP sat on their hands. The best outcome is SNP no majority, but an Indy list party with 7 Msps, forcing the SNP to act whether they want to or not.
The Greens are useless. They have allowed the SNP to delay Indy over and over again.
Giving Sturgeon free reign with a majority is a disaster.
Also I don't want Sturgeon running for FM. She is toxic to a lot of voters now.
ReplyDeleteCan't say I'm surprised - Scotland hates the 'hate crime' bill - is that a crime? The SNP NEC is becoming an embarrassment - they did this to themselves and we suffer. If the SNP doesn't - if the SNP doesn't rebecome the party of the people, for the people the they'll be told to fk off by people... the SNP NEC is poison to the fortunes of our movement at the moment - from 58% to 48%. We need a separate regional list indy party now as a favoured option.
ReplyDeleteThe poll shows support for the SNP up on 2016 with them gaining seats.
DeleteA pro-Unionist majority is what Scotland deserves.
ReplyDeleteYou took that too far
DeleteMhairi Black on Sophy Ridge show on Sky.
ReplyDeleteI used to respect Black but no longer. She has sold out to Sturgeon and is now punting bullshit about the Inquiry.
Sturgeon is ruining the SNP and dividing the yes movement.
We feel your pain. Bless.
DeleteUnknown many thanks for you concerns. I note that you have been unable to think up a moniker. Can I suggest you ask your carer to help you.
DeleteI am your carer.
DeleteUnknown - your medication isnae working.
DeleteIt appears not to be as you still showing the same symptoms and discharging crap.
DeleteUnknown - for goodness sake - get your carer to think up a moniker - my suggestion would be stupid arse then I would know it was someone from the old folks home WGDbtl
DeleteSensible people thought that if Sturgeon cared about Scottish independence rather than herself she would not have done this in the first place.
ReplyDeleteSensible people thought that if she cared about Scottish independence rather than herself she should have quietly resigned in the summer quoting exhaustion.
Conclusion she cares about her own status and nothing about independence.
You ain't sensible.
DeleteUnknown - you cheeky monkey.🙈🙉🙊
DeleteA POIGNANT POST BY A TRUE INDEPENDENCE SUPPORTER
ReplyDeleteTo be told, no, you won't see another year takes extreme resolve not to collapse on the surgery floor in despair. To be told you have crushed the hopes of the people who supported you. takes a lot of arrogance to say, so what?
Grousebeater.
We are allowed to hold different views on the subject of Scottish Independence. It is called democracy.
DeleteUnknown - never said people couldn't hold different views. Now have you asked your care to help you think up a moniker. You cheeky monkey.🙈🙉🙊
DeleteLeaflet from my SNP Constituency candidate
ReplyDeleteAs I have posted before no mention of a referendum at all.
No mention of the authoritarian Hate Crime bill or the fact that they want to allow people to self identify as anything they want and when they want. Hiding this is undemocratic.
The leaflet does mention plenty of good things the SNP have done.
So the 'Salmond effect' is another projected pro-indy majority 2 months out from the election? That's it? Relentless coverage for months on end and the SNP are up on 2016?
ReplyDeleteAnd that's before the committee / Hamilton conclude, which, based on Wings predictions, should mean sturgeon is largely cleared.
The SNP had a clear mandate for independence over the last few years but what what does Sturgeon and her gang try to do - get rid of the mandate by STOPPING BREXIT. Is this the natural reaction of someone who actually wants independence?
ReplyDeleteHold on, the #StuAnon folks said Wolffe was in Sturgeon and Evans pocket. Have we been lied to?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.kingdomfm.co.uk/news/headlines/scotlands-chief-law-officer-ordered-search-of-top-civil-servants-office-for-salmond-complaint-documents/
Scotland's chief law officer ordered search of top civil servant's office for Salmond complaint documents
Scotland's chief law officer ordered a search of the office of its top civil servant to find documents on complaints against Alex Salmond.
Sky News has seen records of a legal hearing in which counsel, acting for the government, said the Lord Advocate instructed a complete search of the "entire electronic repository of the permanent secretary's office" to retrieve material.
Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - well lying is something you know all about Smearer.
DeleteIf Wolffe was on side with Evans and Sturgeon against Salmond, people need to explain the above.
DeleteSmearer Skier (liar since 2014) - are you for real! - she cleared out her office before the search as she knew it was going to happen or as more likely just like Mafia bosses they let their minions do the work and do not create any incriminating evidence in the first place. I say the second alternative.
DeleteNo wonder you don't work for a uni - but you lied about it long enough.
Doesn't look to me like Sturgeon and CPS were in on any plot.
DeleteOnly Evans.
Smeare Skier liar since 2014) - so there was a plot - can you make up your mind. One minute there is a plot then there isn't then there is. You don't have a clue Smearer.
DeleteNote that panelbase was carried out on 3-5 March meaning it is post Salmond, but not post Sturgeon as most of the fieldwork would have been on the 3rd, i.e. before Sturgeon had said her bit and that was reported. You really need a day or two post such an event if you are looking for any impacts.
ReplyDeleteFrom John Curtice:
ReplyDeleteOn today's @Panelbase @SundayTimesSco poll, which shows Yes 46 No 47. When Don't Knows are excluded numbers are Yes 50 No 50. Same happened on most recent @Survation @Daily_Record poll - 1 pt No lead with DKs in; none w/out. In both cases just 2-3 more people said No than Yes!
I’m not going to gloat about these seemingly pro-Union polls because the nation is still basically divided 50-50 with both sides entrenched.
ReplyDeleteI will still argue for FFA within a loose UK so as to unite everyone behind one idea.
Union 2.0 that boat has sailed. It sailed decades ago and is sunk.
DeleteJames has a new post up about the 2 polls.
ReplyDeleteHave a malt James. You deserve one for your optimism. I don't share that optimism. I cant share it as long as Sturgeon leads the SNP and is FM. She is clearly now a liability to the Indy cause.
ReplyDelete