Sunday, March 7, 2021

And now for the good news: Panelbase poll still has the SNP on track for an absolute majority

The second poll of the night can probably be taken a bit more seriously than the earlier ComRes one that turned out to have been conducted in a non-standard way.  Panelbase have helped the mists to clear somewhat, because there are Holyrood voting intention numbers as well as independence numbers.  As expected, the Sturgeon-Salmond controversy has had an impact on both, but it could have been a hell of a lot worse - the SNP are still on course for an overall majority in May, and No have only moved ahead by a smidgeon.  Indeed, given that No only have a 1% lead on the figures with Don't Knows included, we may discover when the datasets are published that Yes were unlucky not to be rounded up to 50-50 on the headline numbers. [UPDATE: It's even better than that - the poll was misreported, and actually shows 50-50 when Don't Knows are excluded.]

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Panelbase)

Yes 50% (-2)
No 50% (+2)

(UPDATE: The above figures have been corrected. Britain Elects also have the percentage changes wrong -  they're reporting a 4% drop in the Yes vote and 4% increase in the No vote, but in fact it's just a 2% change in each case.  The previous Panelbase poll had Yes on 52% and No on 48%.)

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:

SNP 47% (-5)
Conservatives 23% (+3)
Labour 20% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Greens 2% (-1)

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 42% (-4)
Conservatives 22% (+2)
Labour 19% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Greens 6% (-2)

Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 65 (+2), Conservatives 29 (-2), Labour 25 (+1), Liberal Democrats 7 (+2), Greens 3 (-3)

SNP: 65 seats
All others: 64 seats

SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 1 SEAT

Pro-independence parties: 68 seats
Anti-independence parties: 61 seats

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 7 SEATS

Of course what matters on the Holyrood numbers is not where we are, but where we're travelling to.  Are we merely midway through an SNP collapse?  If so, we could very easily end up with the catastrophe of a unionist majority, which will make independence impossible for several years.  Or is this just a temporary dip caused by a period of unusually awful headlines? If so, we could still be in line for a parliament totally dominated by the Yes parties.  Time will tell.

47 comments:

  1. I actually don't want the SNP to have the pro-indy majority all to themselves because they'll bottle it, again. If they have control over what goes to the vote at Holyrood, it'll be the same sabotaged "let's ask permission from Westminster" rubbish which the right of self determination has no requirement for.

    What's needed is a crucial contingent of independent pro-independence members to insist that parliament is asked to mandate a free choice of sovereignty and international status be provided to the people of Scotland with no outside interference.

    That is our right and Westminster has no permission to give and never did. The narrative that 'permission', agreement or cooperatioin from Westminster was ever needed was a always a lie.

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    1. International recognition against the prior state’s opposition is very hard indeed. Catalonia came nowhere close. But even a successful state to be recognised, Kosovo, which was subject to genocide from its former nation, had a bumpy path to international acceptance.

      Wikipedia:

      On 18 February 2008 the EU presidency announced after a day of intense talks between foreign ministers that member countries were free to decide individually whether to recognise Kosovo's independence. The majority of EU member states have recognised Kosovo, but Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain have not.[74] Some Spanish people (scholars or from the Spanish Government or opposition parties) challenged the comparison made by the Basque Government that way of Kosovo's independence could be a path for the independence of the Basque Country and Catalonia.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Kosovo_declaration_of_independence#Reaction_within_the_European_Union

      Literal genocide by Serbs on Kosovans. And Serbia’s claim over them is still recognised by most of the world.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Kosovo

      This? Easy?

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    2. Peoples have the right to choose their sovereignty and international status. It's not "utter nonsense" - it's the law. It's UK law by direct consequence of the UK's legal obligation to uphold the UN Charter which provides the right of self determination of peoples. We already have Westminster's approval of the process because the UK committed to uphold the UN charter.

      "Utter nonsense" is what it is to pretend we need to ask permission.

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    3. What is your problem with accepting the law as it is stated is what the law is? It's not "utter nonsense" and it's not too good to be true. It's just true. The UK has certainly acknowledged that the people of Scotland has the right to self determination because that's what September 18th, 2014 was all about. Pretending that right expires for generations before being eligible for democratic mandate, again, is utter nonsense.

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    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    5. Stop imagining this fantasy that Westminster is a deciding factor. It isn't. The right of self determination doesn't depend on Westminster's opinion either way. Westminster is a bystander to it all.It's interested, sure... but it's not really involved until AFTER the choice is made.

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    6. John Muir - Scotland is not Catalonia. Scotland is one of the world's oldest nations.

      Scotland is in a Union and the right to leave is well established.

      Did the UK say we need permission of the EU to leave - NO.

      The cringe is a terrible affliction on the nation of Scotland.

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    7. Going independent without Westminster's agreement while possible, would be an utter nightmare. How will Scotland collect tax from UK companies based outside Scotland? HMCR will demand taxes, the companies can't pay taxes twice - thye'll pay the tax authority that has the most power over them - by numbers alone that's rUK.

      My own PAYE taxes are paid by a US company with its UK headquarters in England - how are my taxes going to get to the Scottish government?

      They're deducted at source - so its not like i can withhold them and send a cheque to the Scottish government.

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    8. Bigiain - a fine example of the cringe.

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    9. Piflaps - if you believe that then you believe Scotland is being held prisoner by Westminster and because you think the prison door is locked there is no point in checking to see if it is. Cringe it is then.

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    10. I've no cringe, for Scotland or Catalonia for that matter. I'm just pointing to the sorry state of affairs out in the global community, as it exists. Declaring independence, de jure, by international law, is no guarantee of winning it, de facto, as an accepted independent state. Realpolitik is real!

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  2. I think the drop in support for both Independence and the SNP is now pretty well established.

    I am concerned that this trend has some way to go before it reaches a plateau ... and we're still 9 weeks out from the election.

    The SNP leadership has played a good hand very, very badly.

    The SNP is now riven by the Sturgeon/Salmond fallout. Running a campaign with Nicola posing as Scotland's very own Eva Peron is only likely to deepen these divisions.

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  3. The numbers are encouraging but it is very close to a rerun of 2016.

    I guess we will just have to wait and see how the two inquiries go and how the public respond to the improving situation regarding Covid. Scotland has had a lower infection rate and much lower deaths per million than England and Wales (and about 22 other countries). There is strong narrative there. The Holyrood inquiry will likely split on party lines albeit making recommendations on segregation of duties (although the opposition members will be put raging). The Hamilton one I have no idea. Even if it is determined that she misled parliament because she knew 4 days earlier I'm not convinced that is heinous enough to step down. No one is suggesting she tried to cover for Salmond which is what the opposition were decidedly moist about a year ago.

    It is what it is. The party needs to put its big boy and girl pants on and put a decent shift in. I would rather be working from 48% than where any of the opposition parties are.

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  4. Indy support is dropping. So SNP winning in May will result in another excuse to delay. We need to build support kind of guff.

    Indy was in the lead for at least a year and the SNP sat on their hands. The best outcome is SNP no majority, but an Indy list party with 7 Msps, forcing the SNP to act whether they want to or not.

    The Greens are useless. They have allowed the SNP to delay Indy over and over again.

    Giving Sturgeon free reign with a majority is a disaster.

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  5. Also I don't want Sturgeon running for FM. She is toxic to a lot of voters now.

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  6. Can't say I'm surprised - Scotland hates the 'hate crime' bill - is that a crime? The SNP NEC is becoming an embarrassment - they did this to themselves and we suffer. If the SNP doesn't - if the SNP doesn't rebecome the party of the people, for the people the they'll be told to fk off by people... the SNP NEC is poison to the fortunes of our movement at the moment - from 58% to 48%. We need a separate regional list indy party now as a favoured option.

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    1. The poll shows support for the SNP up on 2016 with them gaining seats.

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  7. A pro-Unionist majority is what Scotland deserves.

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  8. Mhairi Black on Sophy Ridge show on Sky.

    I used to respect Black but no longer. She has sold out to Sturgeon and is now punting bullshit about the Inquiry.

    Sturgeon is ruining the SNP and dividing the yes movement.

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    1. Unknown many thanks for you concerns. I note that you have been unable to think up a moniker. Can I suggest you ask your carer to help you.

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    2. Unknown - your medication isnae working.

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    3. It appears not to be as you still showing the same symptoms and discharging crap.

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    4. Unknown - for goodness sake - get your carer to think up a moniker - my suggestion would be stupid arse then I would know it was someone from the old folks home WGDbtl

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  9. Sensible people thought that if Sturgeon cared about Scottish independence rather than herself she would not have done this in the first place.

    Sensible people thought that if she cared about Scottish independence rather than herself she should have quietly resigned in the summer quoting exhaustion.

    Conclusion she cares about her own status and nothing about independence.

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  10. A POIGNANT POST BY A TRUE INDEPENDENCE SUPPORTER

    To be told, no, you won't see another year takes extreme resolve not to collapse on the surgery floor in despair. To be told you have crushed the hopes of the people who supported you. takes a lot of arrogance to say, so what?

    Grousebeater.

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    1. We are allowed to hold different views on the subject of Scottish Independence. It is called democracy.

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    2. Unknown - never said people couldn't hold different views. Now have you asked your care to help you think up a moniker. You cheeky monkey.🙈🙉🙊

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  11. Leaflet from my SNP Constituency candidate

    As I have posted before no mention of a referendum at all.

    No mention of the authoritarian Hate Crime bill or the fact that they want to allow people to self identify as anything they want and when they want. Hiding this is undemocratic.

    The leaflet does mention plenty of good things the SNP have done.

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  12. So the 'Salmond effect' is another projected pro-indy majority 2 months out from the election? That's it? Relentless coverage for months on end and the SNP are up on 2016?

    And that's before the committee / Hamilton conclude, which, based on Wings predictions, should mean sturgeon is largely cleared.

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  13. The SNP had a clear mandate for independence over the last few years but what what does Sturgeon and her gang try to do - get rid of the mandate by STOPPING BREXIT. Is this the natural reaction of someone who actually wants independence?

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  14. Hold on, the #StuAnon folks said Wolffe was in Sturgeon and Evans pocket. Have we been lied to?

    https://www.kingdomfm.co.uk/news/headlines/scotlands-chief-law-officer-ordered-search-of-top-civil-servants-office-for-salmond-complaint-documents/

    Scotland's chief law officer ordered search of top civil servant's office for Salmond complaint documents

    Scotland's chief law officer ordered a search of the office of its top civil servant to find documents on complaints against Alex Salmond.

    Sky News has seen records of a legal hearing in which counsel, acting for the government, said the Lord Advocate instructed a complete search of the "entire electronic repository of the permanent secretary's office" to retrieve material.

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    1. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - well lying is something you know all about Smearer.

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    2. If Wolffe was on side with Evans and Sturgeon against Salmond, people need to explain the above.

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    3. Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - are you for real! - she cleared out her office before the search as she knew it was going to happen or as more likely just like Mafia bosses they let their minions do the work and do not create any incriminating evidence in the first place. I say the second alternative.

      No wonder you don't work for a uni - but you lied about it long enough.

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    4. Doesn't look to me like Sturgeon and CPS were in on any plot.

      Only Evans.

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    5. Smeare Skier liar since 2014) - so there was a plot - can you make up your mind. One minute there is a plot then there isn't then there is. You don't have a clue Smearer.

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  15. Note that panelbase was carried out on 3-5 March meaning it is post Salmond, but not post Sturgeon as most of the fieldwork would have been on the 3rd, i.e. before Sturgeon had said her bit and that was reported. You really need a day or two post such an event if you are looking for any impacts.

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  16. From John Curtice:

    On today's @Panelbase @SundayTimesSco poll, which shows Yes 46 No 47. When Don't Knows are excluded numbers are Yes 50 No 50. Same happened on most recent @Survation @Daily_Record poll - 1 pt No lead with DKs in; none w/out. In both cases just 2-3 more people said No than Yes!

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  17. I’m not going to gloat about these seemingly pro-Union polls because the nation is still basically divided 50-50 with both sides entrenched.

    I will still argue for FFA within a loose UK so as to unite everyone behind one idea.

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    1. Union 2.0 that boat has sailed. It sailed decades ago and is sunk.

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  18. James has a new post up about the 2 polls.

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  19. Have a malt James. You deserve one for your optimism. I don't share that optimism. I cant share it as long as Sturgeon leads the SNP and is FM. She is clearly now a liability to the Indy cause.

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