Updated: Poll purporting to show a No lead was conducted in a non-standard way

UPDATE, 1am: I'm not going to delete the analysis below - however, when I wrote it, I was unaware of the following comments on the nature of the poll...

"these figures are not weighted for voter turnout, with further polling expected this week to show a clearer impact of the inquiry on Scottish independence voting intention..these figures on Scottish independence are not directly comparable with previous polls on the subject, due to this and the nature of the poll."

In other words this is not a standard poll, and we have absolutely no idea whether a poll conducted in the normal way would show a Yes lead or a No lead.  Which begs the obvious question: why on earth has this poll been published?

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So this time the sequence really has come to an end - No are back in the lead, at least for now.  That brings to a close a run of twenty-five consecutive polls that had Yes on 50% or above.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Savanta ComRes)

Yes 48%

No 52%

There's no alibi about a No-friendly pollster on this occasion, because ComRes were firmly on the Yes-friendly end of the spectrum at the turn of the year, showing Yes at a peak of 58%.  (Although admittedly their results have been fairly average at other times.)  Is there any silver lining?  There absolutely is.  As recently as two years ago, we'd have been delighted with a figure of 48% from any firm, and the fact that Yes is still that high after a perfect storm of atrocious headlines speaks to an underlying strength.

In any case, we've reached the point in the electoral cycle where we really should be far more interested in party political voting intentions than independence numbers.  I can't remember us continuing to be so fixated with the Yes/No figures in the run-up to any previous Holyrood or Westminster election - in fact there were independence polls during both the 2017 and 2019 campaigns that went literally unnoticed, in spite of there being an enormous No lead in one of them.  Probably the reason for the difference is that independence has seemed like a real possibility of late, and the SNP lead for Holyrood has looked unassailable - but the latter is an illusion.  Neither an SNP majority nor even a pro-independence majority is assured.  This is an election that still needs to be grabbed by the scruff of the neck and won by the Yes parties. Once we've done that, we can work out from a position of strength how to rebuild a sustained Yes lead on the indy question. 

Obviously the first thing I checked when the poll was released was the fieldwork dates - if it had been conducted after Alex Salmond's evidence to the committee but before Nicola Sturgeon's, it would have kept alive the theory believed by many that Nicola Sturgeon's performance was exceptionally well-received, that she had single-handedly rescued the situation and that she had emerged from the session more liked and trusted than ever before.  Sadly, that doesn't appear to be the case - the poll was entirely conducted after her appearance, and it seems that a supplementary question has found that trust in her is sharply down.  That certainly doesn't mean that she should resign, but what it does mean in my view is that the SNP should urgently reconsider any plans they may have had to run a presidential-style "Re-Elect Our Beloved Leader" campaign.  What we need instead is a relentless focus on independence, to motivate and excite the Yes-supporting base, and to put any mandate won beyond doubt.