Saturday, March 6, 2021

Updated: Poll purporting to show a No lead was conducted in a non-standard way

UPDATE, 1am: I'm not going to delete the analysis below - however, when I wrote it, I was unaware of the following comments on the nature of the poll...

"these figures are not weighted for voter turnout, with further polling expected this week to show a clearer impact of the inquiry on Scottish independence voting intention..these figures on Scottish independence are not directly comparable with previous polls on the subject, due to this and the nature of the poll."

In other words this is not a standard poll, and we have absolutely no idea whether a poll conducted in the normal way would show a Yes lead or a No lead.  Which begs the obvious question: why on earth has this poll been published?

*  *  *

So this time the sequence really has come to an end - No are back in the lead, at least for now.  That brings to a close a run of twenty-five consecutive polls that had Yes on 50% or above.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Savanta ComRes)

Yes 48%
No 52%

There's no alibi about a No-friendly pollster on this occasion, because ComRes were firmly on the Yes-friendly end of the spectrum at the turn of the year, showing Yes at a peak of 58%.  (Although admittedly their results have been fairly average at other times.)  Is there any silver lining?  There absolutely is.  As recently as two years ago, we'd have been delighted with a figure of 48% from any firm, and the fact that Yes is still that high after a perfect storm of atrocious headlines speaks to an underlying strength.

In any case, we've reached the point in the electoral cycle where we really should be far more interested in party political voting intentions than independence numbers.  I can't remember us continuing to be so fixated with the Yes/No figures in the run-up to any previous Holyrood or Westminster election - in fact there were independence polls during both the 2017 and 2019 campaigns that went literally unnoticed, in spite of there being an enormous No lead in one of them.  Probably the reason for the difference is that independence has seemed like a real possibility of late, and the SNP lead for Holyrood has looked unassailable - but the latter is an illusion.  Neither an SNP majority nor even a pro-independence majority is assured.  This is an election that still needs to be grabbed by the scruff of the neck and won by the Yes parties. Once we've done that, we can work out from a position of strength how to rebuild a sustained Yes lead on the indy question. 

Obviously the first thing I checked when the poll was released was the fieldwork dates - if it had been conducted after Alex Salmond's evidence to the committee but before Nicola Sturgeon's, it would have kept alive the theory believed by many that Nicola Sturgeon's performance was exceptionally well-received, that she had single-handedly rescued the situation and that she had emerged from the session more liked and trusted than ever before.  Sadly, that doesn't appear to be the case - the poll was entirely conducted after her appearance, and it seems that a supplementary question has found that trust in her is sharply down.  That certainly doesn't mean that she should resign, but what it does mean in my view is that the SNP should urgently reconsider any plans they may have had to run a presidential-style "Re-Elect Our Beloved Leader" campaign.  What we need instead is a relentless focus on independence, to motivate and excite the Yes-supporting base, and to put any mandate won beyond doubt.

11 comments:

  1. I think there are more atrocious headlines to come unfortunately. Meanwhile the Sturgeon Cult and its representatives in the SNP Leadership behave like ostriches. That is a huge swing in opinion poll terms I think. There is no point in try to airbrush that I don't think. When was this poll conducted?

    I don't think the present SNP is capable of grabbing anything by the scruff of the neck at the moment - Too many wokists for that to happen. They were too busy trying to smear Salmond to promote Scots Indy. Hell mend them.

    ReplyDelete
  2. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-suggests-no-vote-lead-as-salmond-inquiry-drives-voters-away-from-scottish-independence-3157134

    "However, these figures are not weighted for voter turnout, with further polling expected this week to show a clearer impact of the inquiry on Scottish independence voting intention.

    These figures on Scottish independence are not directly comparable with previous polls on the subject, due to this and the nature of the poll."

    Cheeky bastards.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Can't say I'm surprised. Over the years, decades even, voters have shown that internal party divisions are a turn off. The current incessant negativity from the media, opposition parties, concern trolls and SNP members will take its toll. Probably the only real surprise is that the impact has not been greater.

    Over the next few weeks things will be quieter and hopefully the news on Covid positive. That may steady the ship. One thing I'm pretty sure about is that if we end up unable to even secure a majority with the Greens then Indy is dead in the water for years. Many of us may never see another referendum and it will be the next generation, woke to its core, that delivers something we couldn't; because I think independence is inevitable, it is merely the date that is in question. If that is the case then few of the current politicians will be fondly remembered.

    The next few polls will reveal all.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sturgeon is tainted. I believe she is a liability. I admit I am in the Salmond camp.

    However as a neutral. They just see a leader caught up in a cover up, and that is not as a way to go into an election.

    Even if the SNP win. Nicola will now use the polling as another excuse to cancel Indy ref 2.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Of course 48% for the SNP in May would likely give a huge win on the constituency vote alone.
    Worry about the YES/NO numbers when it's a referendum. This is an election,
    and we're set to win big as things stand.
    YES was 45% in 2014 but a year later in a multi-party election SNP won 56 out of Scotland's 59 MP's.
    It's a downer aye, but it's giving us plenty of time to get back.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Those figures are not only not directly comparable to previous polls, but not comparable in any way. The figures can go easily 10 per cent up or down for both options. This is basically a raw survey from the street. I'm really surprised ComRes agreed for it to be published. The only reason why I can think this raw data would be published is the expectation that the weighted result's going to be different.

    ReplyDelete
  7. both camps salmond - sturgeon laying into each other

    tragic as independence is a stones throw away

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's one long fecking hurl.
      PS. There's only one camp which conspired to put an innocent man in prison and is still using the powers of Government to cover up their crimes.

      Delete
  8. Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Scottish independence voting intention:

    Yes: 46% (-3)
    No: 47% (+3)

    Excl. undecideds:
    Yes: 49% (-4)
    No: 51% (+4)

    via
    @Panelbase
    , 03 - 05 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2021

    Same poll:

    Constituancy:
    SNP 47
    Con 23
    Lab 20
    LD 7

    Regional
    SNP 42
    Con 22
    Lab 19
    LD 7
    Greens 2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The number for the Greens seems suspiciously light given 7% seems to have gone astray.

      Delete
  9. " the SNP should urgently reconsider any plans they may have had to run a presidential-style "Re-Elect Our Beloved Leader" campaign. What we need instead is a relentless focus on independence, to motivate and excite the Yes-supporting base, and to put any mandate won beyond doubt."

    Yes James we need a relentless focus on Indy but we arent going to get it from the Sturgeon Cult. They have had 6 years to do that and haven't done it.

    ReplyDelete