Should Scotland be an independent country? (Panelbase)
Yes 50% (-2)
No 50% (+2)
So the swing is actually just 2%, not the 4% reported by Britain Elects. And because the ComRes poll wasn't a legitimate poll, this is, astonishingly, the TWENTY-SIXTH consecutive poll to show Yes on 50% or higher. Not the impression you'd get from reading today's newspaper headlines, or from listening to the endlessly error-prone Sarah Smith on the BBC, but facts are chiels that winna ding.
Thanks James for your insight. The anti-Yes will try a few tricks between now and polling day.
ReplyDeleteAnd thank you once again Marcia for your wonderful insight.
DeleteAnyone's insight is better than yours.
DeleteIfs is very immature. A refugee from the Fishwife of Bath school of public discourse.
DeleteLinda - thank you very much for your cutting remark. You of course never insult anyone. Oh that's right you just did - what a clown. 🤡
DeleteUnknown - you cannae even think up a moniker for yourself. Away back to WGD 🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓 you chicken.
IfS & other idiots, have you nothing better to do than insult people, slag off NS? Can you not engage in an intelligent discussion of what James has posted. It's very frustrating to read all this drivel in an incisive and informative blog.
DeleteI must stop looking at the comments - complete waste of time, unfortunately.
Dornaidh - your comments ain't that smart you know.
DeleteIt wasn't long ago when we were celebrating every time the polls got this close, because we were the perennial underdogs. Covid-time makes 2019 feel a whole decade away.
ReplyDeleteIt's where the numbers go from here that matters. Does the media storm pass and Yes climbs back into the lead in time for May? I bloody hope so! But as none of us can campaign like we used to, till covid's gone, we're stuck as passive spectators, twiddling thumbs or worse!
The nation has been spilt virtually 50-50 ever since 2014. It will continue to be split 50-50 for years to come. The question won’t be settled and whatever happens in any possible future referendum, about 50% of the population will be very upset.
ReplyDeleteWe NEED to find a third way.
A third way to where or what exactly?
DeleteAnd will London still be "our" capital.
Union 2.0 - colonialism is well out of fashion. You don't seem to be getting the message. It's primarily old folk watching programs about Churchill and how Britain ruled the world think that colonialism is ok. Old folk tend to die at a quicker rate than young folk so no it will not always be like this.
DeleteUnion 2.0 I reckon the hardcore pro UK vote is only about 25-30% with the remaining no vote being soft no's. After we win independence as long as there no worse off in there pockets they'll not even be bothered about it . The fact is nobody can offer devolution and deliver so there is no other option.
DeleteAha the more intelligent mutation of unknown speaks. Well done, hopefully, you will take over from the other unknowns who are just trolls and have nothing worthwhile or interesting to say.
DeleteIndependence for Scotland . I just haven't bothered to make an account to log on so chill. Maybe once we actually have a campaign running I'll emerge on here as my true identity. Cheers .
DeleteRamstam- a confederation of nations with a shared currency, defence & foreign relations?
DeleteIn confederation, Scotland would not have to host trident and would have a full veto over trade deals like EU countries.
DeleteCannae see England accepting to be outvoted by Scotland and Wales.
N. Ireland will be gone within a year even if Scotland magically isn't.
Would you support Confederation?
DeleteUnknown - there is nothing stopping you identifying yourself at the end of each of your posts.
DeleteNo not really. We've tried the first way, and we haven't tried the second way (Indy).
DeleteThe third way sounds like 'Plan B'. No amount of letters in the alphabet will placate the unionists.
Plan 'A' (Indy) is still coming.
If both sides are unwilling to compromise then the battle will be ugly...and you might lose independence altogether like in 2014.
DeleteThe YES and SNP Figures have been much the same (as each other) for months now.
ReplyDeleteShould give a clear SNP win in May, and remember the Greens will add to the YES MSP numbers.
I expect miscalling opinion polls is the very least shit they'll be throwing at us.
Most of the Sunday Times stuff is very good for us considering all the flack in the last fortnight.
I hope Wings will click, that the more that he attacks Nicola, the more the Indy numbers fall
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately I think he already knows that and does it anyway
Nicola is doing a pretty decent job of ruining her own reputation. She doesn't need Wings to help her.
DeleteIt's all Wings fault is it. I thought it was all Salmonds fault.
DeleteIt's never Sturgeons fault is it.
Why not try and self ID as a person who can cannot accept wrong doing. I believe it is all the rage in the SNP all this self IDing. You might see things differently.
Scots don't listen to English websites.
DeleteWings self-IDs as Scottish so he can get Scots to send cash to the S of England.
DeleteSmearer Skier (liar since 2014) - you could try self ID as someone who doesn't lie when posting on SGP for a few days.
DeleteSelf id ing seems to be the in thing in the SNP these days. You even get people of poor character and little talent having a shot at being an MSP. There' s hope for you. You could self id as being disabled - MPD or pathological liar - or even both. It probably beats rock bashing..
"Error prone Sarah Smith" - more like Mi5 propagandist.
ReplyDeleteThree women have raised Sexual Harrassment charges against the Governor of New York State. Not for them hiding behind a cloak of invisibilty like the alphabet women.
ReplyDeleteIt is a disgrace that some of the alphies continue to challenge the decision of the criminal case in the Britnat media. It is a disgrace that the BBC continue to give them a platform to do so. These alphies were found wanting at the High Court but continue their POLITICAL persecution of Salmond.
Salmond sought anonymity for the women in the civil case.
DeleteYour stalker is back trolling again.
DeleteUnknown - correct - Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) has stalked me since day one.
DeleteYou must be the more intelligent mutation of unknowns.
Really hard to take any poll seriously since many are too quick shut down scepticism to score points at the Yes voters. Since many shy away from if there asking pro unionist questions and using the Salmond case, and more. Cause it odd how suddenly Yes went from 55% average to being 48.5% within 1 month?.
ReplyDeleteYes is still ahead on average; I get 50.4% for the last month.*
DeleteI imagine james will find similar.
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*Survation, MORI, Panelbase, Comres (3 x averaged to 1 to stop bias).
TBH the average Yes is higher as I included that dodgy comres which isn't properly weighted.
DeleteAs I said on the other thread, panelbase is post-Salmond but not post-Sturgeon. The fieldwork would have been mostly done before she had said her bit at the committee / people would have had a chance to read about in the news / form any initial opinion.
ReplyDeleteSo there may be some temporary hit from Salmond just as their was when the allegations hit the headline. In such situations some folk feel obliged to say they're less likely to vote XYZ because they want to pretend they're up to date on current affairs, but the reality is that they don't know much about things. When it blows over, so does the effect. Sturgeon's appearance has probably reversed any Salmond effect.
If she's largely cleared, it could well mean a big boost to the SNP ahead of May. Unionists have staked everything on this. If the cross-party committee puts he in the clear and the independent Hamilton does similar, voters will turn against those that lied to them saying she was an evil witch.
Yup, these are just poorly made polls passed of as fresh. Cause the Salmond case just gave Sturgeon a boost on popularity, Since they already got a majority and 10k new members. It weird how they suddenly care about panelbase despite it being flawed too in different fashion. To just avoid that there side is gonna lose in may?.
DeleteBlujsckaal - Of course the polls are dodgy you say but there is no doubt the SNP got 10 k extra members.
DeleteWhat's the SNP total membership ? - 500k ?
130k?.
Delete500k's a bit optimistic; that's 12.5% of the entire electorate or ~20% on a strong turnout.
DeleteCan the crowds of unionists waving union jacks and spreading covid in Glasgow City Centre go home please.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/19142570.scottish-independence-john-curtice-casts-doubts-poll-showing-no-majority/
ReplyDeleteScottish independence: John Curtice casts doubts on poll showing No majority
Commenting on the Savanta ComRes poll, Curtice highlighted the "marked" effect that weighting the figures for voter turnout could have.
He said that the most recent results were “unchanged from equivalent figures” found by the same polling firm in early February, adding: “Turnout weighting had a particularly marked impact in that poll.”
When turnout weighting was applied to those same figures in the February poll, it found a 53% lead for Yes (with Don’t Knows excluded).
Sarah Smith error prone. Not how I would describe but you are too nice James.
ReplyDelete