I don't pay the Murdoch Levy, but I gather that the article from the Sunday Times (who commissioned the poll) didn't even mention the headline numbers with Don't Knows excluded, which is highly unusual, so it's difficult to escape the impression that all this 'confusion' has come about partly by design. The datasets show that, after weighting, 415 respondents said they would vote No, and 412 said they would vote Yes. You can hardly get much closer than that - it works out as Yes 49.8%, No 50.2%. With Don't Knows left in, it's Yes 46.4%, No 46.7%, so it was just bad luck that those numbers were rounded to Yes 46%, No 47% - but the figures with Don't Knows excluded are generally regarded as the headline numbers anyway. So, just like the recent Survation poll, it's a genuine 50-50 outcome.
Tuesday, March 9, 2021
Panelbase datasets confirm it's 50-50 on independence
In the unlikely event that anyone from Britain Elects is reading this, could I just point out that you still have a tweet up from Saturday night wrongly suggesting that the new Panelbase independence poll showed figures of Yes 49% (-4), No 51% (+4). The correct figures, which have now been confirmed with the publication of the Panelbase datasets, are in fact Yes 50% (-2), No 50% (+2). I know the mistake will have been made in good faith, but the frustration is that large sections of the London media treat whatever Britain Elects post as gospel, so until there's a correction journalists will continue to wrongly believe and claim that Panelbase was a No-majority poll.
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50/50 after 11 years of Conservative government, 5 years of Scotland being dragged out of the Eu, 15 months of PM Johnson and a year of Scotland being infested with Covid 19. Meanwhile an actual majority of Scots voted yes in 2014.
ReplyDeleteThat's total failure in any language.
Since I'm still here.
ReplyDeleteAccording to wet pishfart and his sockpuppet army a theoretical election result giving 49% to pro-independence party A, and 48% to pro-independence party B would not justify either a declaration of independence, a referendum on independence or international recognition of said declaration/plebiscite.
Can anyone help have him sectioned since that claim is demonstrable lunacy.
PeeJay has a point
ReplyDeleteshould be cruising to independence
65% +
BBC and anti-independence MSM are the barrier to 65%.
DeleteIf The Clown in #10 had a scintilla of sense he would agree to IndyRef2 now, with polls even. In fact, he should agree only to a snap IndyRef2 to ensure YES have little time to puts its army of footsoldiers onto the streets to campaign. That's what got YES from ~30% in 2012 to 45% in 2014. YES campaigners being locked up during COVID was always going to hold the polls back for YES. But The Clown is too stupid to take advantage of the situation.
ReplyDeleteNever interrupt your enemy, &c, &c, &c.
Another (older) ComRes poll has appeared:
ReplyDeleteTables for
@SavantaComRes
poll for
@Daily_Express
now available. Yes 43; No 45 (or Yes 49; No 51 excl. DKs). Data turnout weighted (which increases No slightly). Fwork 26.2-4.3 (so before the
@scotonsunday
poll). Lays to rest some recent debate? https://bit.ly/3rxsfaZ
Polls are from Poland and Germs are from Germany.
ReplyDeleteAs everyone knows 50/50, or whatever similar, doesn't cut the mustard.
That would be like winning a football game with a score of 1.01 / 0.99.
I am sure that most people realise such results are not nearly good enough for such a question, as born out by recent practicle experience, and if such a referendum happened, such a result of that nature would be disastrous for everyone.
I also get the feeling that the blogger has become the Chairman of the Bored. Being obsessed by 49/51, 51/49, etc, is pointless. The usual vote in favour of some county's independence tends to be in the <70% region,at least. Maybe it will give the blogger something to do to tabulate that.
>70%
ReplyDeleteI think the last very very vaguely similar referendum result was over 9o% of people in Crimea for getting the hell out of Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, there is a great big petition for holding a referendum on the separation of the Czech Rep and the Slovak Rep, right here and now, with polls ever since the velvet thing showing that a considerable majority thought the whole thing was rubbish.
Anyway, it would be a laugh if, like the Czech Rep., an independent Scotland was run by an avant-garde playwright with a resurrected Frank Zappa as foreign development minister.
ReplyDeleteAt least it would be amusing compared to what happened in the Baltic republics. We don't usually get Czech engineers cleaning hotel rooms in Edinburgh.
Crimea poll was arranged by Russian State and many feel it was tampered with.
ReplyDeleteWestminster claim that the UK voted to become independent of EU and the vote share was under 52% for that so called independence