Should Scotland be an independent country? (Savanta ComRes)
Yes 49%
No 51%
I think one thing we can draw comfort from is that the Panelbase poll, which was marginally better than this one in that it showed an exact 50-50 split, was conducted later. OK, Panelbase and ComRes polls aren't directly comparable, but there's no reason to think Panelbase's methodology is more Yes-friendly than ComRes - indeed, if anything there's a little bit of evidence to the contrary. So although there was clearly a small-to-medium-sized swing back to No in the early weeks of this year, it's possible that the position may have stabilised more recently.
It looks like there was only one other question in the ComRes poll - on when or whether a second independence referendum should be held. By a narrow margin of 47% to 45%, voters want a referendum within the next five years. Only 19% of voters don't want a referendum to ever take place.
When will the SNP leadership start doing something to win the May election and the following referendum?
ReplyDeleteI think some action from them would be, you know, appropriate at this juncture.
I agree, time they started fighting to win the upcoming election.
ReplyDeleteWhat were the figures with don’t knows included, please? I’m studying if there has been a swing from Yes and No to Don’t Know.
ReplyDeleteY 43 n 45
DeleteI'm happy for No to peak early as it did in 2012 ahead of 2014.
ReplyDeleteEspecially if that's at ~50%.
....
DeleteYes remains ahead on average for now.
52% MORI
49% Comres
50% Panelbase
Gives ~50.3%
Also keep in mind pollsters are asking about a hypothetical referendum held tomorrow (literally) rather than the one planned for post May, maybe in November.
ReplyDeleteSo if someone planned to vote Yes in the proposed referendum post election, but wanted to wait until e.g. covid had settled, the correct answer is 'No'. This is the answer they'll give you as it's what was asked.
If we have a rough date for a vote, then pollsters can start asking about the actual referendum rather than a hypothetical one.
Of course some will always say Yes as that's what they'd vote pretty much no matter what.
There has undoubtedly been a dip. Given the recent incessant negativity if it can be limited to 5% and bounce back somewhat from there then it will be no small achievement.
ReplyDeleteBrexit has not gone away and Covid remains a threat. Real issues that affect most people rather than spats between politicians will return to the fore. The Yes movement is in a much better place than 8 years ago, although just basic demographics plays a part in that. As time passes those that identify as British, particularly those that went through the war years, pass away and are replaced by a new generation of voters with a different aspiration and hope. In many ways Brexit is yesterday's solution for yesterday's people.
A dip would be expected ahead of an election. It's too late for a referendum 'tomorrow' now. Not enough time and you could end up with a brexit type situation where Yes wins narrowly then No parties were narrowly elected.
DeleteThat's 9 out of the last 10, and 11 out of the last 15, bone fide polls (ie exc. the bogus Savanta/Scotsman survey) have registered a decline in Yes support.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP needs to start promoting Independence and the iniquities of The Union. And very, very fast.
I'm not hopeful though as the seem to be simply advocating 'Mother Nicola, she led us through COVID don't you know).
Given that nearly half (47%) of those expressing a review in the Panelbase/Sunday times poll reckon that she has not been entirely honest about the investigation that took place into Alex Salmond and over 70% reckon she should resign if found to have broken the Ministerial Code, that's not a clever strategy.
The vast majority of voters don't want her to resign unless she's actually found to have done something wrong.
DeleteAt the same time, both Yes and SNP voters trust her more by pretty large margins as a result of recent committee events.
If she's largely cleared, the SNP vote will soar.
Based on your understanding of the events to date, which of the following is closest to your view?
Delete51% Nicola Sturgeon should not resign at this stage in the process
35% Nicola Sturgeon should resign as First Minister now due to her conduct on this matter
Unsurprisingly, it is overwhelming Tory / Labour voters / English loggers hat believe she should go, even though she's completely innocent (until found guilty of something).
The results you are quoting are the responses to Question 10a in the survey. I do not dispute these but note only that 35% is a large chunk of the total and when you exclude the DKs this rises to 40%.
DeleteMy figures relate to responses to
a) Question 10b:
"If the inquiry rules that Nicola Sturgeon broke the code should she then resign as First Minister?"
after screening out DKs
and
b) Question 10:
"Should Nicola Sturgeon resign as First Minister? (Either now or if found in breach of code) (Excluding undecided))"
With regards to the latter question as much as 46% of SNP voters reckon she should resign in such circumstances.
But I take your point that the picture is completely different among SNP voters as things stand (i.e. while there are no findings reported by either inquiry).
It just seems to me to be a risky strategy to put all your eggs in one basket so to speak, especially as its Independence we should be focusing on right now and not personalities.
We just have to hope that the basket is robust and the eggs are not rotten.