Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions (Savanta ComRes):
SNP 48% (-6)
Conservatives 23% (-)
Labour 20% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+3)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:
SNP 40% (-3)
Conservatives 24% (+3)
Labour 18% (-)
Greens 10% (-)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-)
Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 64 (+1), Conservatives 30 (-1), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 10 (+4), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)
SNP: 64 seats (49.6%)
All others: 65 seats (50.4%)
SNP SHORT OF AN OVERALL MAJORITY BY 1 SEAT
Pro-independence parties: 74 seats (57.4%)
Anti-independence parties: 55 seats (42.6%)
PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 19 SEATS
The Scotsman article makes hay with the projection that the SNP would be just shy of a single-party majority, but in my view that's a red herring. ComRes ask a Survation-like question for the regional list, which I suspect leads to a slight overestimate of the Greens' support and a slight underestimate of the SNP's support. The likelihood on these figures is that the SNP would actually have an overall majority - but polls are snapshots not predictions, and the real concern is that the direction of travel at the moment is not the right one.
It's interesting, by the way, that the Scotsman are presenting the seats projection as good news for the Tories and bad news for the SNP - when in fact it shows the SNP one seat up on last time, and the Tories one seat down.
If the SNP actually did end up on exactly 64 seats, although it wouldn't be an overall majority, what would probably happen is that they'd install an opposition MSP as Presiding Officer, and then it would be a 64-64 split between government and opposition. (Either that or they'd go into coalition with the Greens and get a majority that way.)
UPDATE: Many thanks to a commenter for pointing out the indyref numbers from the same poll - I'd somehow overlooked them...
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 49% (-)
No 51% (-)
So no change at all from the last legitimate ComRes poll, and that's perhaps a further indication that the ship has steadied after a difficult few weeks. Amusingly, if the media and unionist politicians want to keep up the pretence that the #Matchettgate poll was genuine, it means they'll have to report the new poll as showing a 1% increase for Yes!
Unfortunately I suspect these numbers will deteriorate leading up to the poll. There is just nothing to motivate the potential SNP voters.Would you vote for a party with Murrell as CEO? This I am afraid is as good as it's going to get.
ReplyDeleteHe won't be CEO by polling day. (Or I'd be amazed if he is.)
DeleteI feel SNP losing their CEO to 'scandal' will not be a good look on eve of election. I don't think the BTL commenters of WoS affect change but real world changes like that will spoil the mood music and lead to a disunited image. Better for him to stay, present a united front that Sturgeon/Murrell have been vindicated unless there is good reason for him to step down. IMO.
DeleteExcuse my ignorance but in the past 100 years, how many people base their vote on who is the CEO/Chairman/General Secretary of a political party. Political junkies only make up a few percentage of the public at large.
DeleteI haven't met a normal voter who can name the CEOs of any party. None of them know who Murrell is.
DeleteAbsolutely right unknown. It's not about the specific though. It's about the overall image of a party presented to them. Made up of lots of occurrences. Few voted specifically on railtrack scandal, edwina currie or the many, many small actions of the Scottish Labour party. It was a build up.
DeletePeople stopped voting Labour/Lib and started supporting the SNP/Greens because they started supporting independence as opposed to simple devolution.
DeleteThe slow decline of the empire and UK disintegration has been going on for around a century. The rise of Yes parties is a response to this rather than the cause.
Labour and the Libs are stuck in a Scotland from a few decades ago when it was unionist devolutionist.
25% of the world had left London rule. Australia only officially departed fully in 1986. Gibraltar has all but left Britain now to join Europe. As an European I can visit without a passport while brits need one.
N. Ireland is half way to reunification and the welsh are 39% Yes. This is not the SNP's doing.
It's unstoppable.
They do mention the indy polling in the article James - "A total of 45 per cent of Scots would vote Yes if the vote was held tomorrow, with 47 per cent saying they would vote No and 8 per cent saying they did not know."
ReplyDeletehttps://archive.is/Smtn7
Also from the article -
"Commenting, associate director of Savanta ComRes Chris Hopkins said: “While the headline here may look bad for the SNP, and the natural conclusion to draw that the Salmond inquiry is having an impact, but ultimately the facts remain that, on these Holyrood numbers, the SNP would likely be incredibly close to forming a majority under an electoral system not designed for majorities.
"While the inquiry continues to play out, it’s still worth remembering how far away both the Conservatives and Labour are from really denting the SNP’s dominance and it would take a complete capitulation to change the likely outcome at the Holyrood election in May.”"
Conor Matchett also has an article - https://archive.is/MddEu, where he says -
"But it is worth noting that as few as a thousand votes in favour of the SNP could see them pick up constituency seats narrowly missed in 2016.
The numbers are on such a knife-edge in this Savanta ComRes poll that it could be one constituency seat that makes all the difference.
It is therefore firmly in the realms of ‘squeaky bum time’ for the First Minister."
The momentum is all with the British parties.
ReplyDeletePolling opinion and bad publicity around the Sturgeon/Scottish Government Inquiries and Patrick Grady.
Fighting among ourselves on Hate Crime/Trans-GRA, NEC gerrymandering of List seat candidates, demotion and demonisation of dissenters (Cherry, McAlpine) is adding to the woe.
Meanwhile De Pfeffel's 5 step plan seems to be working perfectly with 1) fighting the election 'hard', 2) Promoting GB e.g. British Army roll-out of 'Oxford' vaccination program, 3) Vetoing Independence vote and splitting Yes and 4) Direct spending in devolved areas (e.g. Councils)
The SNP needs to be our arrowhead. At the moment it is pointing straight back at its archer.
Unfortunately the SNP lost it a few years back when they decided the 'equality' agenda trumped everything, far more important than drug deaths, land reform, CT reform, rebuttal units, real prep and promotion of independence. I'm afraid you reap what you sow, this was a conscious decision by Murrell et al and the footsoldiers are so fed up with them that they will not turn out.
DeleteThe unionists will be able to play the no-mandate card this time with the SNP having spurned several mandates before. Time for the SNP to go into the wilderness and re-establish what is important, get new leadership all round and rebuild with a clear strategy that might work in a decade or so. The game is over.
I agree unionist tactics are working, people scoff at the Boris burrow but its a demonstration of power and capability to ignore the wee pretendy parliament that impresses some. Expect a LOT more of this direct intervention with required Usher Hall style endorsement. My conclusion is Sturgeon's leadership has been a disaster and a wholesale re-set is needed.
"Time for the SNP to go into the wilderness...The game is over...people scoff at the Boris burrow but its a demonstration of power and capability"
DeleteSome really classic giveaways here lol.
Yes, he/she is not very good at this. My favourite is “wee pretendy parliament”.
DeleteSadly I agree with the first and fourth comments... The lack of a narrative for Scotland from a Scottish point of view is deafening... everyday we read about what the UK plans for us... Lesley Riddochs article in the National today was excellent because while it exposes what the Westminster is doing it also shows that we are still trying to deal with them as though they are honest and end up just reacting to their agenda. I am just so shocked that given Britex and possibly the most incompetent Tory governmentin History the SNP have barely made a dent in them and are rapidly losing ground as all the usual tricks are played out. Where is Scotlands Narrative? Why are we still 'playing nice' and 'lets don't rock the boat'? In 2014 we played nice and lost... in 2021 I fear we wont even get a chance. Anyway you get what you vote for both in a Scotland sense and in a 2014 sense... so suck it up Scotland.
ReplyDelete150 comres polls in a week and the PoP average still won't change in any significant way.
ReplyDeleteDoes seem to be settling out at 'core' ~50% Yes based on what we've had, which demographically would make sense 6 years on from 2014; each day new Yes voters come of age while the No vote passes a little more into history.
A drop back to core ahead of an election in terms of an iref 'tomorrow' is normal as softer Yes people don't want a referendum before an election, but based on the outcome of that / after it, depending on the result.
Apparently there's a Yougov for the times which shows:
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/03/savanta-comres-poll-pro-independence.html#comment-form
The poll in The Times predicted the SNP would return 71 MSPs, an increase of eight, giving them a majority of 13.
The number of Tory MSPs would drop by two to 29, while Labour would fall by four to 20, the Greens would drop one and return four MSPs while the Liberal Democrats would remain with five.
I'd prefer unionists to peak ~2 months before voting day myself.
Whit they going to put in manifestos? A vow on more devo? Maybe warnings about indy seeing Scotland oot the EU?
Yougov poll looks at bit better
ReplyDeleteBritain Elects
@BritainElects
Scottish parliament voting intention(s):
Constituency:
SNP: 52% (-4)
CON: 22% (+3)
LAB: 17% (+2)
LDEM: 6% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)
List:
SNP: 45% (-2)
CON: 21% (+1)
LAB: 16% (+3)
LDEM: 5% (-1)
GRN: 6% (-1)
via
@YouGov
, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ 10 Nov 2020
11:50 AM · Mar 11, 2021·TweetDeck
If the SNP don't poll 60%+, Sturgeon should resign!
DeleteYougov excludes the most pro-SNP / indy 16-17 year old group
DeleteYougov INCLUDES 16-17 year olds:
DeleteSample Size: 1100 Adults in Scotland (16+)
Fieldwork: 4th - 8th March 2021
See https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5jtqxj3u8b/TimesResults_Scotland_210308_W1.pdf
It'll be interesting to see how the polls go once the SNP start beating people down with their odious new "hate crime" legislation. And before anyone makes a fool of himself, no, I'm not a yoon. I would like to see an independent Scotland. It's just that I don't think it's going to be a free one, and if this law spooks enough horses, it's not going to be either.
ReplyDeleteIt's e.g. Tory legislation too. Their amendment was passed. Various amendments were, making it cross-party.
DeleteThe SNP don't hold a majority, so none of the acts passed in Holyrood are 'SNP'. All are cross-party.
Seems you are not familiar with Scotland.
I'm not sure if you should be holding up the Tories as the touchstone. However, I'm of the "anything short of threats or incitement to violence" school. Is there a place for me in the new Scotland?
DeleteSeems to be right-wingers attacking the legislation most (because they enjoy abusing minorities), even though it's being shaped by all parties, including the Tories.
DeleteWell, I think abusing people in the street with e.g. you 'f'n black / frog / Irish / jew etc bastards' - while neither a threat of nor incitement to violence - should get your collar felt. But hey, that's me.
This close to an election, momentum is everything.
ReplyDeleteSNP must get their voter-base motivated to actually vote, rather than a crucial percentage sitting on their hands (again).
How they are going to do that, given the Inquiries shite flying about and the backlash from women on the HCB, I really do not know.
I am no longer sure the SNP hierarchy has the ability to inspire anyone - and I say that as an SNP voted of over 40 years standing.
Yougov
ReplyDeleteDo you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing well or badly as First Minister?
61% Well
34% Badly
=+27% NET Well
Do you think Douglas Ross is doing well or badly as leader of the Scottish Conservative Party?
20% Well
41% Badly
=-21% NET Badly
Do you think that Boris Johnson is doing well or badly as Prime Minister?
26% Well
68% Badly
=-42% NET Badly
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following?
Nicola Sturgeon
57% Favourable
38% Unfavourable
=+19% NET favourable
Alex Salmond
14% Favourable
77% Unfavourable
=-63% NET favourable
Unfortunately for Salmond, he is most popular with Tory and leave voters.
DeleteBut you can tell that from many of his 'supporters' on here.
From the Times article on the YouGov poll -
Delete"The SNP are projected to return 71 MSPs, an increase of eight, which would give the party a majority of 13. The Tories would fall two to 29 MSPs, Labour would drop by four to 20, the Liberal Democrats would remain on five and the Greens would lose one member and return four MSPs."
Also, from John Curtice in the article -
“The SNP cannot afford to lose many supporters if they are to win an overall majority in May,” he said. “And there is a minority of former SNP voters, around one in eight, who do not believe that Ms Sturgeon has been telling the truth [about her involvement in the Salmond saga]. Today’s poll suggests that some of them at least are no longer inclined to back the party in May.”
https://archive.is/AkQFP
Any way you look at it i am confident there will be a majority of Independence Parties after May. HOWEVER the Yoons are setting the narrative that there must be an SNP majority which, in any real democracy, is simply bollocks. Where the fuck is BlowJobs mandate for a hard Brexit deal or indeed leaving the customs union etc. etc. Less than 50% of voters voted for pro hard Brexit manifesto parties in December 19. So where's THEIR fucking mandate ? I'm not going to argue whether its SNP 1 and 2 etc simply that the bullshit that nothing but an SNP majority is a mandate MUST be challenged, if nothing else, on the basis that its undemocratic
DeleteWhat that poll shows is that Sturgeon and her gang have been successful in smearing Salmond. People like Smearer Skier delight in such a malicious plan being successful. All people with a moral vacuum.
DeleteIf I can offer a crumb of comfort to those of us desperate for independence, the most recent polls were taken before campaigning started.
ReplyDeleteI'm 89 years old and in all my elections I have never been asked an opinion in any poll.
ReplyDeleteImpact of Sturgeon's 8 hour grilling finally starting to filter into polls. Will always take a bit of time.
ReplyDeleteImpact, if any, on VI will tend to lag even more.
From Yougov.
From what you have seen or heard about the Alex Salmond inquiry and how it relates to Nicola Sturgeon, do you think each of the following has or has not generally told the truth?
Nicola Sturgeon
44(+14)% Has generally told the truth
36(nc)% Has not generally told the truth
10(-13)% Don't know
Changes on 21-25 Jan.
Looks like a unionist fail on this one.
It's Tory men who are most likely to think she's a liar.
DeleteWhich, again, you can kinda work out from posts on here.
Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - Sturgeon is a liar just like you. She never got an 8 hour grilling. It is laughable to call the the questions from the craven SNP MSPs a grilling.
DeleteThe SNP are a minority on the committee; it was majority unionist and independent opposition MSPs. Even the Greens, who have an informal agreement with the SNP, were not represented.
DeleteI dont know, you can wait months for a poll in Scotland and then like No 8 busses they all come at once. The Yougov one above would do nicely but clearly there has been a small dip. The question is whether a fading inquiry and positive Covid easing restores the highs of a couple of months ago. We shall find out soon enough.
ReplyDeleteA poster on the old folks home called WGD says if you don't venerate Campbell on his site you get banned. That is true.
ReplyDeleteHowever the poster forgets to mention if you don't venerate Kavanagh on his site you get banned. That is also true.
Free speech is dying in Sturgeons Scotland.
Someone's blog isn't a public space; it's a private space, meaning the right to expel people is protected by free speech laws. It's your own 'home'. What you describe is the essence of free speech; the right to speak freely in your own home. You get to decide who can come in and argue with you about your views. You don't to out to push your views on others, but they must come to you / your home / website.
DeleteBy contrast, you visit James and WGD's house to tell them what you think in their private space. You are pushing your views on them. To do so without their consent is breach of their right to privacy and free speech.
Only if Sturgeon prevents you starting your own blog to gripe about her on could you maybe have a free speech case.
Smearer Skier - (liar since 2014) - there truly is something wrong with you.
DeleteI don't post on WGD because he has a statement on his blog that makes it clear he would not welcome my views so once again you are lying.
If James Kelly does not want me to post he just has to make that clear.
Sturgeons Hate Crime is an infringement on free speech.
You Smearer regularly complain just like the poster on WGD about being banned from Wings so your post above marks you out as a hypocrite.
So Smearer to summarise for you as you really really cannot read well and have a poor memory - you are liar and a hypocrite.
He should set up his own blog. Though not many would visit. It would be a depressing place.
DeleteUnknown - unable to write more than a few words. Certainly lacking the ability to think up a moniker. My suggestion would be "stupid troll" then it would be clear who you are.
DeleteDoesn't matter if you post or not on WGD. My point stands. WGD deciding who he allows in his private space is free speech in action. It's only if he was trying to shut down other people's blogs would be be trying to stop free speech.
DeleteThose he doesn't allow to post on his blog are free to write their own blogs for people to read, arguing against what WGD says if they want.
The new legislation will protect people against abuse on the basis of age, so I'd be careful about abusing people based on their age as you did above.
Smearer Skier ( liar since 2014) - says the Hate Crime bill is nothing then immediately starts threatening me with it. That is Sturgeons Scotland - people like the lying hypocrite Smearer Skier.
DeleteWhat Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) fails to say is his favourite Joan McAlpine voted against the Hate Crime bill.
ReplyDeleteI suppose it will be interesting to see if the turnout will be in the 40's% or the 30's%. Or worse - if you went by the turnout drop in the Catalonian election last month, the turnout for a Holyrood election would be around 26%.
ReplyDeleteAs for SNP supporters, I can't see what their motivation is to bother to vote, apart for the few who think that leaving the UK is the most important issue on our dying planet, and think Johnston is going to renege on the manifesto that got him elected.
Energy, from oil and gas to renewables (electrical grid), is a reserved matter.
DeleteWe need independence to go properly green.
@ Am Braghadagan - You say folk won't vote for a party with Peter Murrell as CEO.
ReplyDeleteThat's patent nonsense. Most voters by a large majority have never heard of Peter Murrell.
They'll vote in big numbers for the only party - the SNP, that is in line with the Scottish people.
The Sturgeon testimony has drawn a line under the Holyrood inquiry IMO, at least as far as the public is concerned.
They'll see an FM on top of her brief and seeing us through the Covid crisis.
If not Nicola Sturgeon as FM then who?
There's no other possible or credible FM that is in the same league, and the public know it.
Ramstam, I do hope you are correct that the big numbers will out. However my main point is to achieve a good result requires a sense of positivity, excitement, radical action and so on rather than the disillusion, weariness and lack of any coherent forward planning for independence we have now. Due to this situation a significant number of potential SNP voters will stay at home. I hope you are right and I'm wrong.
ReplyDeleteRamstam, I do hope you are correct that the big numbers will out. However my main point is to achieve a good result requires a sense of positivity, excitement, radical action and so on rather than the disillusion, weariness and lack of any coherent forward planning for independence we have now. Due to this situation a significant number of potential SNP voters will stay at home. I hope you are right and I'm wrong.
ReplyDelete