Monday, October 19, 2020

Your suggestions for poll questions, please

First of all, thank you to everyone who has donated to the crowdfunder so far.  I was particularly grateful to Paul Kavanagh for spontaneously helping to promote it, literally just a couple of days before he was taken ill.  It was great to see him in such good form in his telephone interview with The National the other day, and I know that all our thoughts and good wishes continue to be with him as he recovers.

After just over a week, £5208 has been raised of the £6000 target.  As always happens, the rate of donations has slowed as time has gone on, so there's no guarantee we'll make the target, but with a bit of luck it should now be possible to commission another opinion poll of some description.  I'm still mulling over the timing - it'll be at some point between now and mid-December.  But now is certainly not too early to be thinking about possible questions, so if you have any brilliant suggestions, please leave them in the comments section below.

On a completely unrelated subject, someone raised concerns the other day about the supposedly unappealing range of candidates for President of Scotland we'd be faced with if we became independent and then abolished the monarchy.  So I'd also like to ask for your nominations for President, and then maybe I'll run a strictly unscientific internet poll about that.  I'm looking for serious nominations, mainly - I'll be interested to see if we can demonstrate that we can produce Presidents that are just as good as Ireland has managed of late.  (And remember that even if we retain the monarchy, we'd probably still need a Governor-General, which amounts to the same thing apart from the lack of democratic accountability.)

65 comments:

  1. When doing the poll for the Regional votes, you could include a hypothetical list vote only party lead by Alex Salmond as an option?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No vote 1,2 SNP If we try to rig the vote it will come back to bite us.

      Delete
    2. Hypothetical questions generally don't yet very meaningful answers. Hence past polling on this shows people might vote for it, but now we have an actual ISP which has been enthusiastically promoted by the BBC, it's polling at best 1%.

      If you ask would people maybe vote for a new independence party, many will answer yes as they might consider it (why not?), particularly as the party is anything they want it to be. It's not real, so can be their dream indy party.

      Adding in Salmond might make it a bit more realistic, but then the opposite applies because he's not expressed any intention about do this. It's mainly unionists try to split the vote that put this idea around. That and English blog sites who've had as many articles from Salmond as David Torrance has had interviews.

      Salmond has never shown any interest in a return to front-line politics (e.g. FM / president of an IS); the man is enjoying his TV show on RT as he heads for retirement. However, unionists need a motive for the great trans conspiracy to have him jailed by Sturgeon and the Murrell's London met police enforcers.

      Things might change, but Salmond says 'vote SNP-SNP' until we hear differently.

      Delete
  2. No politicians should be President of Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We are getting ahead of ourselves here.

      Let us get independence first and then make decisions about the head of state. This gives an opening for the carping British Nationalists to raise the question of 'The Monarchy' and we will have needless re-runnings of the vacuous Monarchy v Republic argument where 'Republic' becomes reduced to a the false dichotomy choice between "Our Own Dear Queen" and Attila the Hun, Adolf Hitler, Donald Trump, Genghis Khan, Michelle Mone, etc, etc."

      Undoubtedly, we need to have a fairly robust 'Constitution' set out in advance of independence, but there are aspects of that that can be left until the immediate post-independence.

      Delete
  3. Lesley Riddoch or James Robertson or Val McDermid

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  4. I'd humbly like to suggest myself as president. Has to be someone who voted No. Important for the healing process.

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  5. Could ask: would you (still) support independence if Labour was in power under Kier Starmer at Westminster?

    For president: professor Sir Tom Devine, Ruth Wishart, Mark Blyth, Gordon Brown, Mike Russell, James Kelman

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  6. Ruth Wishart, Joyce McMillan, James Robertson.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Lesley Riddoch is an interesting shout. Realistically though Mike Russell or Henry McLeish if he gets on board? We do lack options here though, presumably because so much of the Scottish establishment are unionist and sadly a lot of potentials are dead now. I'd have been happy with a Charles Kennedy or Robin Cook for instance.

    The President should be a unifying figure though, hence why a former Labour first minister who gets on board once we vote for indy seems a good choice to me.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Questions:
    If the UK union does dissolve, how likely are you to campaign for its restoration?

    Would you vote for Scottish independence if Scotland had agreed membership of EFTA?


    Presidential Candidates: Michael Russell, Irvine Welsh, Ailish Angelini, Tricia Marwick, Sanjeev Kohli.

    ReplyDelete
  9. David Martin former Labour MEP. Would indicate our willingness to participate in Europe.

    ReplyDelete
  10. For President:
    Elaine C. Smith; Billy Connolly; Michael Russell; Tom Devine; Val McDermid; Joanna Cherry

    ReplyDelete
  11. Incidentally, has anyone heard Salmond insult people through the use of the following terms:

    'Terf' 'woke' or e.g. 'fantrans' and similar?

    Thought not. It's pretty much only unionist trolls that use such terminology.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SS - did you drop your hammer on your head when out bashing away at some rocks that would explain a lot.

      Delete
    2. I await your quotes from Salmond with these insults in them.

      Delete
  12. Presidential candidates: Tricia Marwick, Philippa Whitford, Billy Kay (seriously)

    ReplyDelete
  13. On the covid issue, the latest Scottish figures suggest a fall in new cases, or at least the new cases / day rate has stopped rising.

    BBC averages show a fall here:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53511877

    The caveat is that some data from the weekend is still probably to be added, as per reports of UK test system delays in the news.

    However, the % positive for newly tested has stopped rising over the same period too. Which probably means it's falling as it is starting to be statistically unreliable due to over inflation.

    The approached used is ok in the beginning, but as the number of people tested grows very large, as is happening, so the % will become inflated, no longer usefully reflecting things.

    https://blogs.gov.scot/statistics/2020/10/19/new-headline-measure-of-covid-19-test-positivity-rate/

    We are changing the way we report the COVID-19 positivity rate as of 19 October 2020. The new approach addresses a limitation of the previous approach. This blog outlines why we are making this change and what its impact will be....

    Its [current %] key limitation, is that as more and more people are repeatedly tested, they do not appear in the denominator as a newly tested individual but do appear in the numerator if they receive a first positive test. Therefore, it is likely to over-estimate the positivity rate, and this increases over time with more repeat tests.


    The % positive rate of all tests is actually 6.6% over the past 7 days, i.e. including those being tested for the first time, and those who were tested previously at some point and found to be negative.

    The two numbers would have looked a lot more like each other in the beginning as so few people had been tested.

    The 6.6% is now the more reliable and they're going to stop using the % of newly tested individuals.

    https://blogs.gov.scot/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/24/2020/10/Graph-Covid-19-positivity-rate-by-reporting-data.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh and the R number has apparently fallen over the same period, i.e. is a little lower than it was 2 weeks ago, which is a great sign if true.

      Delete
  14. "Poppy": If the penny hasn't dropped yet, you are not welcome to post on this blog. I wouldn't want you to get the wrong impression from the fact that I can't always be bothered deleting your comments. Rest assured that every single one of your comments on this particular thread will be gone by morning, and I would advise other commenters not to reply to you directly, because any replies will automatically disappear as well.

    If you want any sort of chance of your comments staying up on future threads, your moniker will have to change - that's the bare minimum.

    ReplyDelete
  15. "Should all pro-Indy parties openly assert in their Manifestoes that Holyrood 2021 is a free, fair and democratic plebiscite on Scots independence and that in the event of a pro-indy majority Holyrood is empowered to declare Independence ?"

    ReplyDelete
  16. Potential Questions.....

    This is thinking off the top of my head while nursing a Malbec so take with caveats.

    1. Non section 30 / Westminster permission question on a referendum. Basically are people really horrified by a "wild cat" vote?
    2. A favorability question on SNP politicians other than the FM. Are people like Forbes, Cherry, Yusuf and Blackford known to the wider public etc.
    3. What would persuade soft yes/soft no voters to come firmly into the indy camp?

    I'm terms of a future president..... Nicola Sturgeon once she stands down as your first FM.

    I do like the idea of someone neutral or someone who came over to the YES side. This being in the name of unity... so McLeish isn't as mad as it might first sound.

    Alastair

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I asked a question about a non-Section 30 referendum in the poll in January and got a positive result, so there's not much point repeating that.

      Delete
    2. Alastair, do you really mean McLeish the "muddle not a fiddle" man and Sturgeon the " fleeting and inconsequential meeting " woman.

      A president of Scotland should have some degree of personal integrity.

      Delete
    3. If Sturgeon leads us to Indy I'd find it hard to argue against her.

      McLean is harder there might be a better figure but I am drawn to the idea of a unifying figure.

      Alastair

      Delete
    4. McLeish bloody auto correct

      Alastair

      Delete
    5. "A president of Scotland should have some degree of personal integrity."

      Aye, they shouldn't e.g. pick on minority groups and go around shouting 'woke/transfan' etc insults at people.

      Delete
  17. Phillip a Whitford is a good choice in that most people like her and see her as generally talking sense. My very 'No' and Brexit voting mother in law even voted for her as her MP she likes her whenever she hears her speak and sees her out and about in Troon walking her dog.

    I'd rather see her as the Secretary for Health though back up here once Freeman retires.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Lesley Riddoch, Ruth Wishart, Henry McLeish, Joanna Cherry, Billy Connolly, Tilda Swinton, Ian Anderson, Andy Wightman

    ReplyDelete
  19. If we keep going at Andrew Wilson speed, the President will have to be someone you don't know who is still at High School.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Putting my optimistic hat on, it has to be Leslie Riddoch (or Billy Kay if a man is allowed).

    ReplyDelete
  21. Why not just the option "a new list party" along with the others? No "consider", Archie Stirling or anything leading? We know there are definitely two so far.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm a bit reluctant to go down that road, because my position on gaming the system is well-known, and if I was to use the poll in that way, some of the people who funded it might not be happy.

      Delete
  22. I like Bill A's suggestion for a question - basically if independenc parties campaign on the issue of declaring independence and gain a majority, the Scottish government declares independence.

    And James thank god you will do something about Poppycock going South!

    ReplyDelete
  23. For President, I would suggest automatic selection of the immediate past Presiding Officer (providing that they completed their term satisfactorily and weren't dismissed from the role).
    That way, there's no extra election for people to spend time on (not just voting, but campaigning/news cycle etc.), and yet we would still get someone with cross-party support, who is well-respected by their peers.

    ReplyDelete
  24. How about "Do you agree that the billions of pounds of Scottish taxes and revenues presently going to the London treasury should instead be paid to the Scottish Parliament?"
    I predict a big Yes to that in any poll - giving useful ammo in the coming Indyref.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Alastair, The question of McLeish doesn't really arise as he's still not declared as YES.
    He certainly would carry some support across political divides.
    You can't say that about many Labour folk these days in Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Lesley Riddoch, Joyce MacMillan and (Republican) Roseanna Cunningham are my nominations for President.

    As for questions maybe they could cover the issue of whether or not we want a written constitution with codified rules and principles in an iScotland.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Ask about a Republic. Can't remember last time that was asked, would be nice to know folks opinions on the royal family, especially post Epstein gate.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Q: If Scotland becomes an independent country and there is a future vote on becoming a Republic, with a president and not a monarch as head of state. How would you vote?
    Yes | No

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Any Scottish monarch would need to be resident in Scotland.
      Has anybody got a name in mind?

      Delete
  29. You have to feel sorry for trolls. To be so lonely with such little pleasure in life that you need to take it out on random folk on the internet must be a pretty miserable existence.

    ReplyDelete
  30. "Looks like a deal could be back on, Brexit soon to be the sttled will of the British people."

    So Scottish indy in the EU/EEA it will be then; the settled will of Scots.

    ReplyDelete
  31. 2 possible questions:

    (1) at the point of independence should Scotland join EFTA permitting
    an open border with England but meaning Bilateral negotations with
    England or should Scotland

    rejoin the EU immediately meaning a hard border with England but
    meaning negotations with England are handled by the EU

    (2) are you willing to take up arms to defend the Scottish Parliament
    and the right of the Scottish people to self determination

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Regarding (2), the reaction to 'No section 30 right now' was an immediate switch to a sustained, likely permanent, Yes majority.

      Exactly as expected. Scots 'unionists' freely choosing the UK is one thing; having racist English wankers taking that choice away from them is quite another.

      As for actually having to take up arms... That would undoubtedly happen if English controlled troops/police were marching on Scots streets. Scotland is no different to any other country; if forcibly occupied, people would without question take up arms.

      Delete
  32. You've noted previously the sample in these polls generally returns fewer people who recall voting 'No' in 2014 than is representative of the population (~55% of who voted this way). The result being some companies weigh their poll results in a way that could be may be bias against a future ‘Yes’ result i.e. weigh down the Yes vote. This is noted as possibly being due to some perceived stigma of being 'outed' as a No voter.

    In order to counter this, would it be an option to add a question at the start that normalises previously voting No, something along the lines of:

    'Some people who voted No in 2014 now state they would vote Yes in a future referendum and vice versa, in other words some people have changed their mind. Would you consider yourself to be in this category?'

    Then follow with the actual referendum question. You'd need to structure it thoughtfully such that it doesn’t lead and creating bias in either direction.

    Just a suggestion....

    ReplyDelete
  33. Brian Cox, Ewan McGregor, Alan Cumming, Eddi Reader, Charlie & Craig Reid (Joint Presidents!)

    ReplyDelete
  34. a few suggestions:

    Does the Scottish electorate have the right to decide its views on the subject of Scottish independence without UK government permission?

    Yes/No

    If pro-scottish referendum parties win a majority of votes at the next Scottish parliament election, do they have the right to hold another independence referendum without UK government permission?

    Yes/No

    Who has the ultimate power to decide whether another Scottish independence may take place? Scottish electorate / UK Government

    Do you agree with the following statement: "the people of Scotland have the sovereign right to determine the form of government best suited to their needs"

    Agree/Disagree

    Should the Scottish government hold another independence referendum vote without UK government permission, how likely are you to participate?
    Likely to vote, Unlikely to vote.

    Do you agree the issue of Scottish independence has been settled for a generation? agree/disagree

    Do you agree/disagree the UK govt can block another Scottish independence vote indefinitely? agree/disagree

    ReplyDelete
  35. Today's covid numbers still show the 5 day pause or even drop in new cases / day.

    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1632/idt2/idt2/9ad8a2ad-fb25-4024-a2e0-30dc7815b320/image/816

    Based on sampling date (public heath Scotland site), after a trend of slowing following the 25th September restrictions, the recent halt here started around 5 days after the 9th October tightening; 5 days is the average incubation period.

    New cases / day in the rUK are increasingly outpacing Scotland, which is now 26% lower than the former. Around the time of the late September restrictions, Scotland was only a few % lower, i.e. almost had it's per capita share.

    Obviously, if this pause extends, it means R = 1, each case is producing just one new case. If numbers continue to drop, then R will fall below 1 and it may not be necessary to have a national lockdown, but the tiered system may suffice.

    Only time will tell. Fingers crossed.

    ReplyDelete
  36. "Whether they sanctioned it or not, should the UK Govt accept the result of any referendum on Scottish independence?"

    ReplyDelete
  37. Could you ask a question specifically about Wings' suggestion of using the constituency vote in the 21 SP elections as a de facto referendum, and whether that idea would be acceptable as a basis to declare independence? For President: Jackie Kay or Lesley Riddoch

    ReplyDelete
  38. Should an independent Scotland proceed with the development of Durness Spaceport on the north coast?

    Should an independent Scotland seek to claim for one tenth of the UKs nuclear arsenal with the intention of disassembling them?

    Should an independent Scotland seek to claim one tenth of the UKs military naval assets including naval vessels and aircraft?

    ReplyDelete
  39. Very good questions.
    Maybe, yes and yes.

    Vive la Republique

    For President - Irvine Welsh, James Robertson, Jenni Fagan, Joanna Cherry - or:

    an honorary, permanent, dead person, who would never need replacement, such as a statue of Robert Burns.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Very good questions.
    Maybe, yes and yes.

    Vive la Republique

    For President - Irvine Welsh, James Robertson, Jenni Fagan, Joanna Cherry - or:

    an honorary, permanent, dead person, who would never need replacement, such as a statue of Robert Burns.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Very good questions.
    Maybe, yes and yes.

    Vive la Republique

    For President - Irvine Welsh, James Robertson, Jenni Fagan, Joanna Cherry - or:

    an honorary, permanent, dead person, who would never need replacement, such as a statue of Robert Burns.

    ReplyDelete
  42. If we're looking across the political divide - Malcolm Chisholm or Anabel Goldie are candidates who are not without merit. Personally I think Tricia Marwick woudl be a great candidate. Outside of politics - Elaine C Smith, Lesley Riddoch. I think the main things is that whoever it turns out to be they must be elected and have a term limit.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Should animal farming be made illegal?
    https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/animal-farming-attitudes-survey-2017 reported that 33% of Americans think so.
    Particularly pertinent as Covid-19 may have been brought to us thanks to people eating other animals.

    ReplyDelete