Another possibility would be an end-of-year poll, maybe published just before Christmas. Let me know what you think.
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
Your thoughts on the possible timing of the third Scot Goes Pop poll
As I've mentioned a few times, I think it would be a good idea to crowdfund a third poll on independence at some point in this calendar year, which obviously means within the next three months. So now would be a good moment to hear your thoughts on the exact timing. The argument for doing it now is that it could explore attitudes to the assault on devolution and international law contained in the Internal Market Bill. Unfortunately the mainstream media has utterly failed in its duty to keep the public informed (at least on the devolution aspects), so the issue may not have cut through - but even if it hasn't, a poll could in itself help to raise awareness. The other way of looking at it is that the Margaret Ferrier episode, and perhaps aspects of the Alex Salmond inquiry, may have undermined support for the SNP and independence, in which case an early poll could backfire. (Although if Yes support has held up, we could say "nothing that is chucked at us is making any difference".)
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It would be interesting to poll how recent events have affected confidence in the SNP, the SNP leadership, and the overall independence movement as separate areas. I don't think there's been enough previous questions on those to establish movement unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteThere's been voting intentions, approval ratings, and the independence question of course, so some direction can be charted, and if there's any further questions to be asked at least a reference point could be established.
to much news at the moment - covid , lockdown , usa elections
ReplyDeleteend of year around mid december would be good
I would agree with this and others advocating later rather than sooner. Just too much going on to get a clear picture of more settled opinion.
DeleteThat's unless there is any chance of polls pushing for clearer, more definite manifesto policies/pledges.
I'd emphasise that the point of doing it now would be to lay down a marker about the Internal Market Bill. Does anyone have any thoughts about that?
DeleteI agree, so much going on just now, give it a couple of months to settle then poll.
DeleteA marker poll now as a data point and then a follow up later in the year/New Year, would be my preferred plan. There seems to be willingness to crowdfund to make it happen if funds are short.
DeleteI'd poll once No Deal Brexit is confirmed or days away from actually happening for real (just before end of the year)
ReplyDeleteThat is a good idea.
DeleteThat would be my preference too. I think Brexit will have the most impact when and if we find out what level of disaster it will be.
DeleteFisheries seems to be the only outstanding issue on a deal, state aid provisions have now been largely agreed. There is already some discussion on access on similar terms to those currently in place for a limited agreed period of time. it looks as though we're pretty close to a deal. If they get it over the line then I don't think we'll see much disruption at all. Right now it looks pretty likely it will get over the line.
DeleteForeign travel may be the only significant difference to now along with a little bit more red tape for imports/exports.
I then anticipate Brexit will become the settled will of the British people in a relatively short period of time. Rejoining is already significantly behind in the polls.
Deal or no deal will make little difference to the views of the Scottish public. Well over a year ago their were polls showing support for independence would significantly increase when britnat Westminster officially forces Scotland out of the EU, again whether it's deal or no deal.
DeleteNot the settled will of the British people, only the English people and maybe not them either, quiet a few seem to have changed their mind.
DeletePoppy goes Scotty, Poppy goes English red Rose.
DeleteHappy to fund when ever you choose. Least you're working toward IndyRef2 unlike Wings who isn't even accepting my comments any more
ReplyDeleteWould it be possible to fund both polls?
ReplyDeleteI would say that knowing how these events have (or have not) impacted Yes support would be a good idea. If they have, I think it is best to know the situation. If they haven't, best to know that and it might help improve the confidence as well which after the recent battering would not be a bad thing.
ReplyDeleteAnd I would be happy to contribute to a poll now and later.
DeleteIn general and specifically regarding the IM bill, I think it's worth doing now and later. Having seen the Forward as One fundraiser, it seems there's a lot of interest amongst ordinary folk in gaining information. Even if the message is that all the bad news has made a dent, that may act as a spur for any activists who are currently overwhelmed by the number of unprecedented things going on.
ReplyDeleteSome sensible points.
ReplyDeleteSeems to me that we need to capture the effect of brexit when it has actually happened so I'm for a late date e.g. mid/late January. Would that undermine the quality of responses on the Internal Market Bill ? Personally I can't see it but I'm no expert on polling.
I am keen on 2 polls one in late dec then if you can get funds say feb.
ReplyDeleteNot convinced that the recent events will significantly deter people voting for Independence.
If only one is possible then late dec as effects of No deal and hopefully a clear and firm strategy given by the SNP for a referendum will be in place by then.
Ally
On the utterly indefensible and reckless actions of Margaret Ferrier, I think Sturgeon acted swiftly and decisively and condemned her in the strongest manner available to her, unlikely to make a difference imo. No different to Catherine Calderwood as regards public opinion (although Ferrier's behaviour much worse) and nothing like the Dominic Cummings fiasco as Boris decided to back him.
ReplyDeleteOn the Internal Market Bill, I think we need some specifics as to what the issues are and why they are such a problem rather than just some hot air grievance guff.
It will facilitate trade across the UK particularly important given any disruption caused by Brexit. It largely replaces regulations that were set by the EU, which the devolved administrations had no power over anyway. We've simply replaced the EU with the UK.
An independent body will monitor how the UK's internal market is functioning to oversee the implementation of principles and to consult with businesses and consumers.
The bill says this could not lead to the independent body directly overturning the decisions of a devolved government.
It also promises Edinburgh, Belfast and Cardiff will be given new powers to create their own laws in 160 policy areas once the transition period is over.
I think most Scots and Scottish business will welcome it once they understand it and unlikely to therefore have much of an effect imo.
The Salmond saga has been dragging on for a while now and is already priced in, there's a lot of smoke and mirrors and maybe it's more of a divisive factional issue within the Yes movement itself.
Having said all that interesting to see what the polls say.
"It also promises Edinburgh..." Britnat promises?! Ha ha ha!
DeleteWestminster is up to something, otherwise why change the existing agreements.
DeleteGood to see Sturgeon acting on Covid, I think we may finally have some interventions which stem the tide. We still need more on universities and halls of residence though.
ReplyDeleteThankfully Scotgov has recognised the situation is getting much worse, and not taken the Scottish Boris Trump Skier approach of a ridiculous pretence that cases were tracking down and all is well.
My advice was to tighten restrictions more as the first tightening was having an effect.
DeleteI am please to see sturgeon listened to me.
"My advice was to tighten restrictions more as the first tightening was having an effect."
DeleteMore muddled thinking from Skier, if the first restrictions were having the desired effect, no need for more. We know a full lockdown works, it's striking the right balance between virus suppression, the economy and liberty that's important. Not restrictions work, so let's introduce more, like some sort of experiment. It's when they don't work you introduce more. And where's your modelling of cases by day of test rather than result showing cases were tracking down. Oh yeah gone. Now who else tries to pretend they thought, said and did things they clearly didn't. Restrospective rewritng of history, Messer SS Bojo Trump
I'm glad you don't work in my labs. You'd lose us a fortune.
DeleteWhen we e.g. try a new chemistry in earnest and it yields positive outcomes, we increase the dose in steps with the goal of obtaining the desired level of inhibition. If it's having the desired effect but not in sufficient intensity, increase the dose.
Medical doctors (as opposed to chemical engineering ones) do the same with medicines.
If our initial lower dosage tests do absolutely nothing, it suggests a different chemistry is required. Medical doctors again take the same approach.
This is basic science.
The initial tightening slowed both the rate of new cases / day, and also the % positive.
The change is evident to even the office junior in the data, most visibly so in the % positive numbers.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
But it wasn't enough. It tempered the exponential pattern that was developing, but the rate is still too high.
As for Trumpesque, I'm not a 'Britain first' nationalist who supports leaving unions and having a 'piccaninnies with watermelon smiles' racist as PM.
DeleteScotland currently has the lowest new cases / day rate in the whole UK, as per the latest modelling release.
DeleteEven the BBC note that:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54449573
Throughout the pandemic Scotland has tended to adopt a slightly more cautious approach than England.
It has imposed more restrictions and lifted them more slowly in general. The latest move is in line with that trend...
...Scotland has seen 85 cases per 100,000 in the past week, compared [22% less] to England's 109.
The measures imposed by the Scottish government are focussed on areas with the highest infection rates.
But those places are some way below the levels seen in England's hotspots.
Cities such as Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle have seen around 500 cases per 100,000 people over the past week - that is more than twice the level of infection in Glasgow for example.
17,540 Covid-19 cases in the UK today, this is exponential growth and cannot be explained by increases in testing. That's using the same so called restrictions which Skier tells us were working in Scotland.
DeleteYes, 5.7% of which were in Scotland (8.4% of the UK population).
DeleteUK cases do seem to be increasingly outpacing Scotland, probably due to the slower rate here arising from the tighter restrictions that the BBC highlight.
Over the past week, Scotland was 6.4% of UK cases and falling on average.
If I were PM in England, I would tighten restrictions. BBC has articles suggesting this is planned.
Have the poll as soon as possible.
ReplyDeleteYes a new survey would be able to take into account the damage, if any, that has been done to the quest for independence or/and the SNP. I have never considered resigning from party and cant foresee any reason that would make me want to change from being a seeker of an independent Scotland.
ReplyDeleteThe internal market bill will go to the supreme Court because it's illegal. The refusal for legislative consent by Labour, the libs, the greens and the snp is just the first step. The next is to have it overturned for breaking international law, which scots law must adhere too. The Scots bar will never permit such illegal acts.
ReplyDeleteOf course without it, the UK goverment can't strike trade deals for the whole of the UK, which is what it is for.
The great constitutional crisis is only just warming up.
You are absolutely correct the constitutional crisis is just warming up.
DeleteI notice that our resident Britnat troll has been given a new line of attack from head office. The IMB is really OK and Scotland has nothing to worry about. Ha Ha Ha. NEVER trust a Britnat especially when it comes to Scotland. They have lied to us ever since since the last Indy ref .Their promises/ reasurances mean nothing and we are not going to be fooled again
Ally Morton
The courts will tear it apart. The Scots bar cannot sign off a law that is illegal and introduces dictatorship. It's why Lord Keen stepped down.
ReplyDeleteJohnson is turning the traditional conservative Scottish establishment against the union.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2020/oct/07/brexit-strategy-puts-uk-on-slippery-slope-to-tyranny-lawyers-told
Brexit strategy risks UK 'dictatorship', says ex-president of supreme court
...“Once you deprive people of the right to go to court to challenge the government, you are in a dictatorship, you are in a tyranny,” Neuberger told the webinar.
There is also this:
ReplyDeletedavid allen green:- ”So many Bills before Parliament now contain provisions to place the state, ministers and/or its agents outside or beyond the law
1. Internal Market Bill
2. Overseas Operations Bill
3. Covert Human Intelligence Sources Bill
This is not normal.” https://mobile.twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1313252112021807110
Ally Morton
I'd agree with other contributors here that right now so much is going on especially with Trump and Covid that any results might be lost in the noise. But in December when whatever Brexit reality awaits us becomes a lot more obvious, the penny might have dropped for a lot more people. Biden has signalled that if he wins Johnson can forget tearing up the Northern Ireland Peace Agreement if he wants a trade deal with the USA.
ReplyDeleteBut I will contribute whenever James decides to run a poll.
Johnson's screwed on N. Ireland either way because the democrats control the HoR while there's plenty of Republican senators with Irish history / sympathies too.
DeleteN. Ireland will be remaining all but in the EU with a completely open border and full free movement. It's that or the UK economy is utterly screwed. They'll not get decent deals with anyone if the EU and US start sanctions over NI.
I'd let the dust settle on the Salmond issue to see if it has dented support (unlikely in my opinion), so maybe mid November then another one at the end of January, after Brexit has destroyed the English government. Happy to contribute to both.
ReplyDeleteApart from maybe first hearing second hand that there were allegations against Salmond on the Thursday rather than in full from the man himself on the following Monday, what exactly has Sturgeon done?
ReplyDeleteI thought there was supposed to be some sort of scandal here?
Is this it? That's all? That's #Sturgeongate?
'But you found out on the Thursday, not the Monday!' is all that's left in the unionist arsenal?
Heavens.
And as that is the sum of the "scandal". That is why the committee do NOT want to bring the FM in person to make a statement as that would be the end of it instead of thier clear objective of prolonging it and then the unionists would need to manufacture another scandal with which to attack the FM .
DeleteAlly Morton
Head in the sand stuff.
DeleteEven Wings, who doesn't like Sturgeon at all, says it is 'undisputed' that she had nothing to do with the manufactured allegations and only found out about them from Geoff Aberdein in earnest possibly, then in full from Salmond himself. The only disputed point is whether it was the Thursday or the Monday she 'found out' (which really needs better definition) on.
DeleteIt's just farcical to argue that Sturgeon was 'out to get Salmond with manufactured allegations' which she undisputedly didn't know about until Salmond/his team told her of them.
The lying to parliament over the dates is ridiculous as there is no motive for doing so. Lying with clear motive is a scandal. There's no motive here at all. I think it's clear Aberdein told her a train was hurtling down the line and Salmond would see her soon. Truthfully, Salmond was then the actual one to tell her in detail about the allegations.
So, if you are asked 'who told you about the allegations', you answer 'Salmond' because that is who told you about them in detail, not who told you they were in the pipeline.
But as Wings says, this is a trivial issue. There was no motive / benefit to be gained by lying here, hence there's no reason be believe there was any intent to mislead. In any court motive is as important as evidence.
geacher - thesis???????- Skier posting his fantasies full of lies, deflection and misrepresentations a thesis - well that is funny.
Delete"A fleeting and opportunistic meeting" says Sturgeon at FMQs. Soon to be filed in the same box as " it was a muddle not a fiddle"
Looks like James Kelly has been doing his censoring again over geacher' s comments.
DeleteGeacher pointed out that the reason Sturgeon wanted to forget about this meeting is that she requested it to discuss the Salmond allegations with Aberdein. Note this is not what Sturgeon said nor what the sites resident liar Skier posted above.
So who told Sturgeon about the allegations in the first place if the new harrassment process said she should not be told about allegations or involved in any way at all.
Lie after lie by Sturgeon.
3 Weeks after the Murrell messages are leaked not a word from Ruddick. So who were the PEOPLE Ruddick was told to get to pressurise the police?
DeleteOf course Murrell has confirmed the messages are genuine - only took him 2.5 weeks to do so. He laughingly says he forgot to use the correct words for what he meant. Even Skier came up with better lies than than that.
The Murrells both seem to be getting forgetful in their advancing years. That probably explains how they have forgotten about all the unused independence referendum mandates lying unused somewhere.
Our resident Britnat troll ,Poppy Goes Scotty, always likes to report first on the daily covid figures which come out from Scotland with the usual ,"FM slow on the uptake and not on the ball in responding to the pandemic" mantra. The exact opposite is true and because of that we are in a far better situation than in England.
ReplyDeleteThank goodness we have the FM minister looking after us and not that Brexiteer rabble in westminster .
Please go to travellingtabby website for the UK wide figures and to get a more informed assessment of the situation.
Ally Morton
If we have one poll then I would say wait until the Brexit deal is clearer. But might it be worth checking in with Business for Scotland to see if they have any polling plans in the rest of the year. It seems more efficient to try to co-ordinate efforts to make best use of indy funds.
ReplyDeleteThe last FM to claim to have forgotten something Henry McLeish - it was a muddle not a fiddle - where did he go - out the door called exit. That's is where Sturgeon should be headed along with her criminal cabal. We can then get a real leader - someone who will deliver independence rather than an abuse of power.
ReplyDeleteI'm always in the camp of getting as many polls as possible. The advantage of one now would be to see how the SNP and independence are holding up against the tsunami of "bad" headlines.
ReplyDeleteThe issue is though due to all the noise attitudes to Brexit etc. Might be lost. The poll could reflect a false image as people are simply not aware of what is happening.
Gut instinct is go for it now.
Alastair
Great news. What is the SLP going to do now?
ReplyDeleteWhat does Jack McConnell, et al, have to say about that?
”Scottish Trades Union Congress backs new independence referendum now the Internal Market Bill proceeds without Scottish Parliament consent. This is a massive blow to Unionism and the Labour Party #indyref2 #STUC.” https://mobile.twitter.com/80_mcswan/status/1314112555510648832
Ally
…………………………………………………
The unionists on the Scottish sites are like dope on a rope, they are so obvious in there glee and excitement to bring the Scottish independence leaders down, they give themselves away,
ReplyDeleteYou don’t even have to imagine why there on these sites.
Nicola Sturgeon confirmed 1,246 positive tests for coronavirus, counting for 16.2% of those newly tested, in the last 24 hours in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteThere has been an increase of 20 people in hospital, to 397, and a further six deaths.
On what planet have cases leveled off Skier, look at a weekly average for the last five weeks.
So what should NS do about it ?
Delete"When we e.g. try a new chemistry in earnest and it yields positive outcomes, we increase the dose in steps with the goal of obtaining the desired level of inhibition. If it's having the desired effect but not in sufficient intensity, increase the dose."
ReplyDeleteHaving outed himself as a narcissist, we now discover Scottish Boris Trump Skier also has psychopathic tendancies, by attempting to equate people's lives to some weird chemical experiment. But even doing that he clearly doesn't understand scientific principles.
The optimal dosage to suppress the virus is full lockdown, we already know that. This is however, unlike your "scientific synopsis" not an optimal solution as it leads to a multitude of adverse health effects, including mental health issues, poor health outcomes from poverty as a result of economic downturn, undiagnosed conditions and higher incidences of domestic abuse to name just a few.
We're faced with competing interests and attempting to find an appropriate balance of relative harm. You can't simply up the dosage (using you're weird analogy) to the maximum without harming the patient. There are also ethical, philosophical, social, political and subjective judgements to be made in determining interventions as it's people's lives and livelihoods we're talking about, not chemicals.
Cases have been rising, interventions up until now haven't worked, you need to accept this,the Scottish government has. The only place that cases have leveled off is in the narcissistic, psychopathic, fantastical conscious of SS Bojo Trump.
Let's hope the new interventions work, but comparing Scotland to England the whole time during the Pandemic to measure the performance of the Scottish government is almost pointless. Scotland could be behind or ahead on the same trend and peak higher and later or it might peak lower and earlier, England may be a good, average or abysmal benchmark and is just one of many. The comnparisons may yield some information to model Covid, but are not in isolation any meaningful barometer of success or failure. Currently Scotland is in a much worse position than the south of England and in a fair bit better condition than the north but things can fluctuate and change. It's the position in Scotland that matters for the Scottish government no matter how bad things get or don't get in other parts of the UK.
Who knows what labs you're in Skier, hopefully it's not eugenics, if its explosive I hope I'm miles away. You're the one losing your firm money, so you'd best get to work rather than spouting you're deranged theories on here.
"The optimal dosage to suppress the virus is full lockdown"
DeleteNo it's not. Hence we are where we are. Full lockdown 'optimal', dear god.
That's like saying the most optimal treatment for cancer is to wait until its spread out of control, then treat it by amputating all affected areas.
Full lockdown is the least optimal blunt instrument approach reserved for situations of last resort. It could not be further from optimal in terms of outbreak control.
It's like shutting in a depressurizing a pipeline to avoid a blockage, losing millions per day, rather than injecting chemical in small doses until you got inhibition just right.
I am so glad you don't work in my company; you'd bankrupt us by saying full shut in was optimal. Christ, that only happens when the operator did everything wrong and there's no other choice. It comes with serious risks too.
You even go on to talk about how lockdown isn't optimal at all, just after saying it was. You are all over the place.
And it's me that's always looking for positive signs, hoping that numbers are falling, while you relish more infections / deaths just so you can get one over on me. You are a very disturbed individual.
If you have complaints about home nation comparisons, direct these at the unionist UK government. That's where the data are compared. The Scottish government just publish Scottish data.
Out of interest, do you have any scientific qualifications?
DeleteThere is no need to wait for the cancer to spread out pf control Skier, if you could treat it at a molecular level as it first occurs, then that is the most effective way to treat it.
DeleteLockdown is not an ideal solution to the pandemic as it has adverse unwanted consequences but it is the optimal way to prevent the spread of the virus. It doesn't have to be used when things are out of control. You could lockdown when there was a single or handful of cases and prevent the spread of the virus, but suffer other consequences. If Wuhan had locked down permanently in the early stages, no pandemic. I'll try not to use the same word i.e. 'optimal' in referring to different concepts again in case it confuses you. i.e. Holistic vis a vis single phenomenon.
New Zealand used a lockdown when there was only a small number of cases, and they have been one of the most successful countries in dealing with the pandemic. They went hard and they went early and now New Zealander's can live freely without restrictions or succumbing to the virus.
It's you and Your metaphors and analogies that are all over the place, on the one hand you talk about not waiting for cancer to spread but then waiting while you tinker with your pipeline until you get it right. The virus is not in stasis Skier, it's spreading at an exponential rate, you can't simply play around hoping you'll get it right. Your pipe is going to blow Skier, just like the hot air you're blowing.
I don't think you understand what 'optimal' means. You should look it up. Full lockdown could never fit that definition. It's a highly effective but very non-optimal method of virus control. I quote you:
Delete"The optimal dosage to suppress the virus is full lockdown, we already know that. This is however, unlike your "scientific synopsis" not an optimal solution"
"Lockdown is not an ideal solution"
Yes, it's not optimal at all.
You also don't understand that something growing exponentially, may be doing so slowly, possibly extremely slowly. It just sounds like a scary word to you. Sort of big / out of control / happening super fast.
You understand that e.g. it is possible to grow exponentially over hundreds of millions of years; so much so the change over the entire human existence would be imperceptible? It would still be happening exponentially. Think xenon-124 and its exponential decay.
A look at the data and the doubling time for new cases in Scotland has been increasing since the 26th of September, a few days before I said the rate was slowing, as per Imperial College studies etc. What this means that it's taking longer and longer for each person to infect e.g. 1.7 others (R = 1.7).
However, the infection is still behaving 'exponentially', but over an increasingly longer time period, i.e. is getting slightly better. The initial tightening had an effect, but not enough, so they've tightened more. Within a week we should see effects.
I work in flow assurance. I'm a production chemist. I recommend treatments to avoid problems that can readily cost offshore operators $1m a day. I've been doing it for 20 years so must be ok at it. Hence the pipeline analogies. They're not random.
May I ask what you do?
And WTF was Douglas Ross doing reffing the England v Wales game.
ReplyDeleteI mean running the line for all the pedantics out there.
DeleteDouglas Ross needs all the exposure he can get.
DeleteWell done the English FA for doing their bit.
Or was it all just a great British coincidence?
Who is Douglas Ross?
DeleteFor all those who don't want to keep their head stuck in the sand. Try reading the lawyer Gordon Dangerfields blog.
ReplyDeleteHere is a taster.
This, then, is what the Scottish government conceded about its conduct of the Salmond judicial review and, by extension, of the unlawful procedure which gave rise to it.
Incompetent. Unreasonable. Lacking substantive merit. Improper purpose. Delay.
The oft repeated claim of Sturgeon, Evans and the Scottish government that they just got unlucky in some late-discovered technicality in the Salmond case is just one more shameful lie.
A little bit of basics for Skier
ReplyDeleteSage said it was “almost certain that the epidemic continues to grow exponentially across the country, and is confident that the transmission is not slowing.
“While the R-value remains above 1.0, infections will continue to grow at an exponential rate.
A bit of basics for wee poppy.
DeleteIf the R value is high at say 2, but the transmission time is long at say a year, the growth will still be exponential (1,2,4,8,16..), but very much under control. One person will infect just one other every six months, even with R = 2.
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/publications/publishing.nsf/Content/mathematical-models~mathematical-models-models.htm~mathematical-models-2.2.htm
There are two aspects of infectious disease transmission that R does not capture well. One is the rate of transmission in calendar time....The other aspect that R does not capture well in general is q, the probability that an imported outbreak gathers momentum and becomes large, as distinct from fading out after relatively few people are infected...
The R value alone is not what matters. It's why Scotland apparently has a higher R vale than than the UK as whole, but less cases / day (only 27% lower per capita in the past 7 days). The transmission time is longer.
It's quite amusing that you don't understand this. Made me giggle given you seem to think yourself an authority.
"If the R value is high at say 2, but the transmission time is long at say a year, the growth will still be exponential (1,2,4,8,16..), but very much under control. One person will infect just one other every six months, even with R = 2."
DeleteSkier, you can only transmit the virus while you're infectious. You're infectious for about two weeks on average. So yes R is very important as it is a measure of how many people will be infected by a person within the two week period on average (although R can be supplemented with growth rates and trend data also as different areas may have marginally different rates).
Six months, a year, these are the type of sentences you need in the lunatic asylum. What a clown, SS Bojo Trump the Clown.
Good, you've been reading. You have progressed from this:
Delete"The optimal dosage to suppress the virus is full lockdown, we already know that. This is however, unlike your "scientific synopsis" not an optimal solution"
I was of course speaking generally. But aye, now you are getting it. So it's not the R number that is key, but the transmission time. R = 2 is fine if the transmission time can be pushed past 14 days. Do that, and R will suddenly collapse overnight.
R could increase to 10. It doesn't matter if we can just get the transmission time over 14 days it will stop spreading suddenly.
So the R number doesn't tell us how bad/good the situation is. It doesn't tell us how fast the disease is spreading. As per my link. It is just the R number.
It's why Scotland has less new cases, but a higher R number. One Scot might be infecting slightly more people, but they are doing so over longer period, so it's less out of control.
The doubling time in Scotland appears to be growing quickly, which is good news. It's impossible to look at the case data and not conclude that the virus is now spreading more slowly, as of around 26th September. The initial restrictions did have an effect.
It is still increasing 'exponentially' though, just at an increasingly slower rate.
I don’t think people are infectious for 2 weeks. It’s a much smaller window.
Deletedoesn't matter when you do a poll now this year the result will show the SNP vote share and independence vote share down, possibly even below 50% & it will be a mix of that ferrier woman, salmond & the SNPs own incompetence & anti science policies
ReplyDelete"Anti-science"?
Delete??????
I admire your optimism there letus.
Deleteyes anti science, the fact you have to question that shows just how complacent those within the yes movement or SNP supporters have become. go research the lombard effect and explain to your readers the science behind the music ban and why Scotland is the only country on planet earth to adopt such a policy... the 180 mood change amongst those in the creative industries & supply chain (so lots of hospitality as well) in the last 2-4 weeks seems to have gone completely un-noticed by the SNP & it's supporters to the extent that some of them are happily parroting tory lines without a hint of irony about just getting another job etc... even you yourself james mentioned about how many musicians were yes voters in a previous blog without even the slightest idea that support is slipping away at an increasing rate currently.
DeleteSome excellent support from the chnacwellor.
ReplyDeleteWorkers at businesses that close will get two-thirds of their wages paid by the government, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month.
Employers will not need to pay any wages. They will only be asked to cover national insurance and pension contributions.
Announcing the scheme, Mr Sunak said it would “provide a safety net for businesses across the UK who are required to temporarily close their doors, giving them the right support at the right time”.
Where's he getting the money from ?
DeleteAye, Scots taxes supporting Scots workers in a time of need.
DeleteNice of the Chancellor to give us some of our own money!
DeleteAnd when we are Independent we will have our own borrowing powers and no need to go cap in hand to Westminster.
DeleteAly
Yes, England borrows money in our name using our resources as collateral, adds it to our deficit in GERS, then unionists imagine we should be grateful when London says we can actually have some of it.
DeleteCould we have a question on the currency please. Something like:
ReplyDeleteRegardless of your view on Independence, if Scotland were to become an independent country, should it:
a) Carry on using sterling for the first 10-15 years;
b) Introduce a Scottish currency within a month or two of Independence Day;
c) Seek to change to using the Euro;
d) I don’t know;
e) I don’t care what currency is used.
Avery good and important point, but I do not think it should be a question on the SGP poll. This can all be discussed and decided by the Scottish Nation after Independence without interference from Westminster. I would recommend Richard Murphy at the following link for those unsure of the issue.Rhttps://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/09/11/does-scotland-need-its-own-currency/
DeleteAlly
Pro-indy supporters and politicians can't rely solely on the arrogance, ignorance and incompetence of anti-Scottish british nationalists. The SNP/SG must give the troops some red meat.
ReplyDeleteI’d like a poll when others are not polling and November would be organisable, pre Christmas and post USA election. It would also allow us to see where every other country is going with the uptick in covid infections. Oh, and Uk will or will not have walked away from the ‘negotiations’ with EU.
ReplyDeleteSo one before and one after Christmas please. And yes let’s ask about currency as well - we need to start asking questions that presuppose independence is coming.
I’ll donate whenever you call it though. .