Last week brought two SNP by-election wins in Dundee, this week has brought two Labour by-election wins in North Lanarkshire, including one in a ward where the SNP topped the poll last time around. But in actual fact the underlying message of both weeks is identical. The net swings to Labour are small enough to point to a small SNP lead nationally, which is a far cry from the typical pattern in by-elections prior to 4th July.
Mossend and Holytown by-election result, first preferences (10th November 2024):
Labour 36.5% (-2.9)
SNP 34.8% (-7.8)
Reform UK 15.6% (n/a)
Conservatives 7.5% (-5.3)
Liberal Democrats 4.9% (n/a)
UKIP 0.7% (n/a)
Fortissat by-election result, first preferences (10th November 2024):
Labour 36.6% (+0.1)
Progressive Change 24.0% (n/a)
SNP 20.3% (-10.6)
British Unionist Party 10.9% (-7.9)
Conservatives 5.6% (-5.6)
Liberal Democrats 2.6% (n/a)
The swing to Labour in Fortissat was 5.4%, and in Mossend & Holytown it was a mere 2.5%. That averages out as a 3.9% swing across the two by-elections, which if applied to the whole of Scotland would leave the SNP in the lead by around four percentage points - very similar to what we've been seeing in opinion polls recently.
Furthermore, the small Progressive Change party that performed so strongly in the Fortissat ward is essentially a straight breakaway from the SNP, so it would seem logical that it took more votes from the SNP than from Labour. If so, the pro-Labour swing may even be slightly exaggerated due to local factors.
Reform UK's good showings remain a cause for concern, but we can at least celebrate a setback for the hardline Brit Nat BUP in the ward that is the closest thing they have to a heartland (they got a councillor elected there in 2022).
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I'm curious, those that previously said that John Swinney was the right choice for Leader and that he "resonates with ordinary people" are you okay with him grinning away being in attendance at Starmer's 'Council of the Nations and Regions' seemingly perfectly fine with Scotland being on par with the West Midlands Combined Authority?
ReplyDeleteTo the loyalists, whoever happens to be in charge of the SNP is the Dear Leader and whatever cruel London does to us is reason enough to Wheesht For Indy, Both Votes SNP and just you wait until you see their cunning plan because Tick Tock it's happening for aw that.
DeleteAnd then years and years go by and every single one of them dies British.
I did find it funny that the SNP X/Twitter account posted: "Keir Starmer has made his view clear to the people of Scotland: Scottish communities will never come first under Westminster control".
DeleteBut Swinney went anyway and was all smiles: If he thought it was such a big disrespect to Scottish communities why the f**k did he go!?
Talk: The day before, Swinney publicly protests what an affront it is to the people of Scotland to have just 1 representative at a
Delete"council of nations" where England has 14. Outrageous! Why aren't Scotland's cities also there?
Action: Swinney attends and can't keep the look of giddy delight off his face. "I got to sit beside Sir Kier and Saddiq Khan! I’m famous now!"
If you can swallow this, folks, you're the muppet he takes you for.
"Tick tock…"
Here is a WGD muppet's take on this.
DeleteDr Jim say:- " John Swinney must be seen to be going through the motions of co operation until everyone can see clearly that Starmer is dumping a motion on Scotland"
This is the same guff these muppets used to spin to explain away Sturgeon's lack of action on Indyref2 e.g. sturgeon is holding fire until the full impact of Brexit hits or Sturgeon cannae attend independence marches because the polis told her it isnae safe yet she attends pride marches ( note the polis never told her it was unsafe - they just made that stuff up to help with their cognitive dissonance). Instead Sturgeon held her fire until the polis caught up with her and her husband and she resigned.
10 years of multiple unused mandates for Indyref2. The deputy FM during this period who advised Sturgeon not to have Indyref2 (as confirmed by Swinney himself ) is now in charge of the SNP. Swinney is a devolutionist. The SNP under the control of Sturgeon's gang is the worst thing possible for Scottish independence.
I won't vote for a phoney Independence Party.
Hey see the reform vote! Scots folk are starting to get pig sick of Humza and his Islamic ideology. Glasgow looks like Soweto. Ordinary Scots are feeling like we are getting replaced. Its you nats that are responsible for this.
ReplyDeleteWe want our women to have equal rights. We want our kids to be safe. We don’t want illegal immigrants wasting our taxes and given special treatment.. being allowed to break the law without being punished the same way as indigeonous Scots. Two tier policing. See Mark Hurst and Craig Murray.
We do want a better Scotland but the current nats only see left wing. They Embrace antisemetism and have completely corrupted our legal system for example. Why has Branchform taken so long? Voters can smell the stench from this and won’t be voting SNP..
Sturgeon. She looks gay, hangs out with gay folk. If it looks like a duck it probably is. Ordinary Scots gay and het to no longer trust her and she is totally toxic.
I’m sure Craig Murray, who just stood once again in Blackburn seeking Muslim votes, would be delighted to find himself attached to your appeal to blood and soil ethnic purity.
Delete/s
Stench of this.
DeletePig sick ! You sad racist
DeleteAnon at 2:05 bet you’re the loudmouth in the pub/street everybody avoids
DeleteI don't agree with this but there are more people thinking this way as immigration has increased substantially up here. Let's not kid ourselves on
DeleteAnon at 9.43 can you point out the racist bits?
DeleteUp here? You doom there, methinks?
DeleteAnon 2.05 Is that you Manky Jacket?
DeleteAnon 12.32 - "Glasgow looks like Soweto". Why are the Right so thick ?
DeleteUp here yes. A normal sentence to describe a situation in relation to higher immigration down there. Some of you folk see English under the bed man.
Delete@ Anon 2.41PM Grow up.
Delete2.48.. I was replying to a comment which in all seriousness used the word "methinks" after accusing me of being down south. Childish
DeleteAnon at 2.05am.
ReplyDeleteBest not to post when drunk and rejected.
Yeast infection playing up?
ReplyDeleteComical to see some still going on about independence 🤣
ReplyDeleteSurely the penny will eventually drop with these people that they’re in a minority, and it most certainly ain’t happening.
It is but some nats are waaay beyond help so will always be around for our amusement.
DeletePollAndBangWe:
DeleteShould Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 57%
No 43%
Yeh Brit nats are the ones who said Brexit was good. The lies from Starmer Johnson Truss sunak May ( remember her!). Still they are all pro empire and holding on to others land such as Gibraltar, Ireland -north, Scotland Wales. They are little englanders at heart
ReplyDeleteActually punched the air when I seen these results if I'm being honest with you. This shows that change is afoot in Scottish politics after some very suspicious voting in the last general election. SNP are ready and primed to comeback.
ReplyDeleteI completely agree.
DeleteThis most recent poll from PollAndBangWe, putting support for independence at 57% is very very encouraging.
Have to confess, I had my reservations about Swinney when he was appointed leader, but no longer. Can only see the party going from strength to strength under his leadership. I’m increasingly confident the SNP can bring us within grasp of independence.
Declan ( Scot Skier) - I would have thought you would be too embarrassed to show up here again after your "forecasts" re the English GE. The truth is they were not genuine forecasts on your part they were SNP propaganda.
DeleteIFS,
DeleteTake it that was just a wee “typo”, and you meant UK GE!
What is PollAndBangWe?
DeleteAnon at 12.26pm - no it was not a typo.
DeleteStrange thing to say, I have to say IFS!
DeleteAnonymous 1:00pm,
DeleteYou’re possibly not the only one who hasn’t heard of PoleAndBangWe, as they’re a relatively new polling company.
The good news is they seem to be very good, and have in fact, been getting excellent reviews.
Their polls on Indy have been getting increasingly encouraging. Let’s hope for more of the same in the coming months, with Yes maybe even breaking through the 60% mark!
Why do some people hate the idea of Scotland being independent, like any other country. It's bizarre
DeleteLike fine, don't think it's worthwhile, it may be worse off, it may just be a waste of time but to actively hate the idea and ridicule your nation's abilities? It's really odd. I wouldn't want anyone like that running scotland in the UK, self hating weirdos.
DeleteOnly the deluded and brainwashed somehow think independence is a good idea.
DeleteWorks out for umpteen other European nations
DeleteWorks out for umpteen other nations.
DeleteAnon at 2.34pm - it's a symptom of a population experiencing long term colonisation.
DeleteAnon at 1.59pm - not strange at all. England is the colonial power. It's England's election. England gets what England wants. Sure people from Scotland vote but their votes are ignored.
England got its Brexit vote on a 37% vote for Cameron. Scotland voted multiple times much higher ( up to 50%) for a Indyref2 vote and was told England disnae want you to have your vote. And that's it.
Anon at 2.44pm thinks the vast majority of the world are deluded and brainwashed - not him🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
DeleteWhat a load of codswollop IFS spouts at 5:03.
DeleteIFS should be in an asylum.
DeleteAre you sure you have the correct date displayed James, unless i'm missing something, last I looked it was October 24 not November 24, just sayin.
ReplyDeleteGood Q&A today on Scotland Speaks.
ReplyDeleteNational front page while trying to do good gets it wrong again. No mention of the slaughter by Hamas or the hostages taken on its first timeline. Economical with the facts and indecent. The paper is a joke and an embarrassment.
ReplyDeleteI'm as a pro indy as they come and I wouldn't touch it with a barge poll and I can't imagine anyone i know would either.
DeleteMancini braveheart front page (which was funny)aside it feels like a set up to undermine scottish independence. It honestly wouldn't surprise me. If only we could go back to the Sunday Herald and its gravitas.
Glad to see everything has been declared fine for the movement.
ReplyDeleteWon’t be long until we’re independent then.