Glenrothes Central & Thornton by-election result on first preferences (24th April 2025):
SNP 47.6% (-1.1)
Labour 21.5% (-6.4)
Reform UK 17.9% (n/a)
Liberal Democrats 6.9% (+2.9)
Conservatives 6.1% (-5.9)
I know people will say "well, this was a strong ward for the SNP anyway", but how many local by-elections did we see in the second half of last year when the SNP failed to defend the seat despite starting in first place? Even the most favourable terrain in by-elections still has to be won, and the SNP have not only done that, but done it in style.
Remember that the baseline for the percentage changes above are not the 2024 general election, but the 2022 local elections when Nicola Sturgeon was still in her pomp. So for the SNP to actually improve their position relative to Labour in a local by-election is quite a rare thing, and is consistent with the recent GB-wide polls showing Labour imploding.
For some reason Glenrothes was one of the strongest areas in Scotland for the Leave campaign in the 2016 Brexit referendum, so it's both interesting and heartening that the Reform surge in the ward isn't anything out of the ordinary.
As they've been doing in the vast majority of recent by-elections, Alba sat this contest out, which is particularly significant given that Glenrothes Central and Thornton is one of the roughly one-third of wards in Scotland where they did put up a candidate in 2022. This is beginning to look less like a 'choose your battles and concentrate your resources' strategy, and more like a party that is gradually and quietly exiting the stage for good - and given the way they've been behaving recently, that's perhaps for the best.
Good result for SNP.
ReplyDeleteWhat was the turnout?
ReplyDeleteAt a 24% turnout, it's barely legitimate.
ReplyDeleteA low turnout usually hurts the incumbents. It hasn't this time.
DeleteKC will be disappointed with that reply.
DeleteNot very good at keeping his word is our K C. But he is a unionist.
DeleteBarely legitimate? Stupid meaningless expression. But then again you are a unionist. Lies. Check. Stupidity Check. It’s a unionist.
DeleteIt was a low turnout, but those who complain about that are being disingenuous
ReplyDeleteA low turnout is a low turnout for all, it's the percentage that counts, and the SNP had a virtual earthquake of a result with the Tories almost disappearing and the other English parties put firmly in their place
Translate that to next year when it really counts and it appears the SNP are on course for what everybody believes will be pretty massive
Got good friends in Glenrothes and remember them saying the Leave vote was remarkably strong there in 2016.
ReplyDeleteI thought that would be reflected in this by-election, but it wasn't.
Wonder if those Leave voters are pissed of with Farage now, having seen the damage Brexit has done?
Not sure you understand the right wing groupthink (no shame in that). Many leave voters blame the Tories for not delivering the Brexit they believe they voted for. They want Reform to 'do the job properly'.
DeleteWhat was the turnout in 2022?
ReplyDelete39.4%
DeleteI get excited by 39.4%. I might scream.
DeleteI suppose independence supporters have to clutch any straw they can these days, no matter how small.
ReplyDeleteyou must have concerns or you wouldnt bother with this or other blogs.
DeleteYou’re the one doing the clutching. Local authority by elections are an important indicator of the state of the parties. The SNP have won 5 by elections in a row. That’s a good sign.
DeleteAnd what exactly are unionists clutching these days?
DeleteWe shudder to think.
Delete17.9% is a very small set of pearls for Reform to clutch.
ReplyDeletePoor things.
Rich things, actually: Farage and Tice are multimillionaires.
DeleteAnd Tice is a good friend of Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh too. What more could he ask for in life?
DeleteAbsolutely fantastic performance by the SNP. Will be a good weekend now, IFS will be suicidal this weekend I'd imagine.
ReplyDeletePromoting suicide is well out of order.
DeleteEats shoots and leaves.
Delete47.6% in a by election and 56% yes in a recent poll so why is Declan ( Irish Skier version) not advocating a de facto referendum like me. Instead he comes on SGP and posts childish nonsense.
DeleteZzzzzzzzz
DeleteOnce again we see IFS hating everybody including himself
DeleteIFS is like a big dirty turd that just keeps popping back up to ruin everyone's day.
DeleteIt’s true that there are a lot of disgusting posters and infantile idiots on SGP. See 1.39, 4.00, 5.56 and 9.08pm above.
DeleteJust incase anyone's not keeping track: It's one year today since First Minister Humza Yousaf axed the Bute House Agreement with the Greens!
ReplyDeleteThat was a good day.
DeleteThis is good news for the SNP and a vindication of the strategy of John Swinney over the course of the last year or so.
ReplyDeleteI gather he'll be launching an initiative on independence in January 2026.
DeleteFantastic news. Good to hear this.
Deleteit's going to be a big one; Swinney is proclaiming END THE UNION FOREVER
Deleteand calling on all nations ravaged by anglo terrorism to unite and fight the anglo menace - piracy, terrorism, loan sharking, genocide, drugs, guns, slavery - calling on china, russia, india, pakistan, africa, the caribbean, the irish, and the USA to finally : drive the world pestilence out, once and for all, this is the ANGLOSUNG, and the world shall become ANGLO-FREI
- God with Us
or he could put his hand up, the other behind his back to say :
could we have referendum please (you don't have to abide by the result)
(NO)
oh well, that's okay then
Heard after Pope Francis's funeral he's going to ask the next Pope for the divine right to hold a referendum.
DeleteGod is on our side, Westminster won't be able to stand in his way!
I’ve never been so confident about indy.
DeleteHappy days.
Preach brother!
DeleteYoonlanders upset are we?
DeleteThat the BBC, STV and Herald aren't reporting the result tells us all we need to know about its significance.
ReplyDeleteEveryone down my local is talking about it. Was surprised when I walked in and the gals at the bar were like "Did you hear about the Glenrothes by-election!?"
DeleteFunny in your head? Should’ve kept it there. Lots of room for it.
DeleteFor the first time in ages I visited Labourhame and found an interesting article by Robert Hopkins on the inevitability (or lack of it ) of Scotland gaining independence. As usual Robert has gone into the subject in some detail but favours YouGov Polls to Find Out Now. James, I was wondering what your thoughts might be on this article. As far as I am aware YouGov still weights to 2014 whilst FindOutNow does not - is that correct?
ReplyDeleteThere’s a sad wee anon putting in some amount of work on multiple posts here. Well done him, and it is a him.
ReplyDeleteNot sure the gender matters. I do think we should all support Independence to be on the ballot paper for all pro Scotland parties.
ReplyDeleteNo one said gender mattered. The gender was simply pointed out.
DeleteHilarious to watch the usual bunch of Reformists, unionists and Alba supporters on here downplaying the Glenrothes result when the same mob clap like seals about other results where the SNP do less well.
ReplyDeletePass the tissues.
IFS crying his eyes out again
Delete5.58 What was the previous occasion and just how exactly do you know this or are you just posting rubbish?
DeleteAnon at 5. 58pm - nope just laughing at your pathetic comments.
DeleteChapman has to be removed from her promoted position. She should be prosecuted for Contempt of Court.
ReplyDeleteThat can only apply regarding a Scottish court.
DeleteAnon at 4.43. Nope.
DeleteWhy didn't Alba stand at Glenrothes ?
ReplyDeleteThey've run out of money, credibility and ideas. It's pretty much over for them.
DeleteAnon at 5.21pm " They've run out of money, credibility and ideas."
DeleteSo they have been on the same path as the SNP for the 10 years.
Is it raining where you are IFS, or is it just your tears?
DeleteClassic ah but from IFS. Everything comes back to SNP Baaaad. Much like the unionist press and BBC.
Delete“Much like the unionist press and BBC” !!!
DeleteDon’t be ridiculous!
Looks like anon at 3.28am got up really early this morning to rerun the old tired IFS is a Unionist trope. You really shouldnae have bothered.
DeleteThis anon clearly wants Scotland to be like the Soviet Union/China - you cannae criticise the party.
I have posted in the past that it is a disgrace that the SNP just keep on wasting money on legal cases that will turn out to be a waste of money. £17million and 193 legal staff in 2023/24 and that disnae include external legal advice costs. Yet they have no money to fully implement the Winter Fuel Payment.
The SNP is run by incompetent devolutionists who are more than happy to spend money on legal costs to try and cover up their wrongful actions. John the Redactor being the man.
You know the solution anon numpties to SNP baaaad. Get the SNP to stop doing baaad things. It's that simple. They won't stop doing baaad things if numpties like you lot turn a blind eye to everything and accuse anyone who tries to prevent the bad things happening of being unionists.
5.59pm - yes it is raining here this morning. Is that post the extent of your intellect. You must be 12 years old.
Independence for Scotland. That's what is important not some political party.
“Independence for Scotland “
DeleteLOL
Keep dreaming!
IFS is a greetin faced child screaming for attention and everybody is bad for not giving it to him, he wont move a muscle to do anything for himself, spoilt wee brat
Delete2.03 so why are you giving him attention? Are you bad then?
DeleteHey Dr Jim at 2.03pm as every year goes past you sound more and more deranged. Jimbo says: " he won't move a muscle to do anything for himself ". I just made myself a cup of tea - does that count in your bampot world.
DeleteGood result for SNP.
ReplyDeleteThey are also looking pretty solid for a very good result next year and the prospects of another SNP-Led Scotgovt look promising.
Labour continue to implode, Tories are almost extinct and we have a full year to consistently show up the racism and ultra-right mindset which pollutes Reform.
And by that time, Reform Poster Boy Trump should have managed to shred the American economy and civil society, which might well make voters look at Farage and his Trump-Clones in a different light.
The triumph is Reform going from 0% to 18%. That's spectacular.
ReplyDeleteIf they stay at 17.9%, they won't really be relevant in HR.
DeleteYou are probably of the ruling class that tells the proletariat what to do and think. I'm top class and get to tell the ruling class what to do and think.
DeleteNo.
DeleteThat's what the likes of Trump and the Mini-Trumps in Reform do.
It’s the stupidity of anyone voting for Farage the racist lying grifter that is spectacular. Run through his proposals for the NHS.
DeletePlus his liking for Trussonomics.
Deleteone in five of the unfortunate concrete-bound people of Glenrothes votes Reform
ReplyDeleteMore like one in six.
DeleteYou mean one in approximately twenty three don’t you? Sorry I forgot. You are a unionist, which means you are a cap doffing liar by default.
DeleteAnon @ 8:01pm
ReplyDeleteBased on the turnout, Reform voters in that area amount to approx 4.5% of the population.
So, approx one in 23.