Reform UK 28% (-)
Conservatives 20% (-)
Labour 20% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 14% (-)
Greens 13% (+3)
SNP 3% (-)
20% is a new post-election low for Labour across all polling firms, beating the record of 21% set by More In Common around a month ago. It's a full two points lower than the previous record in Find Out Now's own polls. It's not quite an all-time or post-1945 record low, because a few weeks ago I trawled through Labour's polling fortunes under Jeremy Corbyn, and found one poll (in July 2019) where they were on 18% and a handful of others where they were on 19%. It's important to stress that the vast majority of polls during the Corbyn period had Labour on a much higher vote share, and they were very often in the 30s or 40s. But yes, at Corbyn's absolute lowest moments, when the carefully concocted "anti-semitism" scam was at its peak, Labour did occasionally slip sub-20. Once Starmer starts posting polling numbers that are lower than anything Corbyn ever suffered, the psychology of the situation will shift and the beginning of the end of his dismal premiership may move into view.
I've pumped the Find Out Now percentages into the Electoral Calculus seats predictor (which is of course a flawed model, but at least it's easily available), fine-tuned them with the Scottish subsample numbers, and this is what came out -
Reform UK 339
Labour 118
Liberal Democrats 61
Conservatives 50
SNP 45
Greens 9
Plaid Cymru 4
Others 24
Reform UK: 339
All others combined: 311
REFORM OVERALL MAJORITY OF 28 SEATS - NIGEL FARAGE BECOMES PRIME MINISTER - BRITAIN LEAVES THE EUROPEAN CONVENTION ON HUMAN RIGHTS
We're now only a week away from the English local elections, and although Labour have been on the chicken run by postponing as many elections as they think they can get away with, there'll still be plenty enough to produce the annual tradition of the BBC projected national vote share. Corbyn's worst showing was 27% in 2017, so there must be a strong chance Starmer will do worse than that - albeit with the caveat that Reform's lack of a traditional local government base may mean that they underperform the opinion polls.
If Labour do slip to 26% or below, and if they lose the Runcorn & Helsby by-election to Reform (still a big "if" in my opinion), Starmer's leadership will perhaps start to look damaged beyond repair.
Do you know whether or not the strong showing for Reform at present is primarily on the one hand a product of Labour / Conservative weakness or on the other hand a positive vote for Reform policies in and of themselves?
ReplyDeleteNot just Kendall, Reeves has a lot to answer for.
ReplyDeleteUK Labour leaders tend to stay in post a long time. Even rubbish ones. As a party, Labour isn't usually ruthless in getting rid & trying again. John Barnes, despite being a great player, was a dire Celtic manager, the team famously losing that Cup game to Inverness CT ("Super Caley go ballistic, Celtic are atrocious" etc.), Barnes swiftly gets the chop -> Dalglish comes in & wins League Cup before handing over to Martin O'Neill & the rest is wonderful history (for Celtic). Per this analogy: Labour, whether "Scottish" or UK, would've stuck with Barnes as manager for another couple of trophy-less seasons. The point I am laboriously trying to make is that I can see a terrible KS as UK Labour "Leader" hanging on and on all the way to the General Election, despite defeat after defeat. An opportunity for the SNP :-)
ReplyDeleteArrivederci, it's one on one.
DeleteThe question is why Starmer is doing nothing to prevent this? What is he getting out of it? I mean pats of the back from Israel aside.
ReplyDeleteAh think it's a bit more basic than that. He is too busy with Lord Ali and his wardrobe.
DeleteYeah. At least three. So etimes. Aaaaaarrrrgh!
DeleteThis is nothing but nationalist propaganda!
ReplyDeleteWith Labour having a big majority, the next GE will not be for another 4 years, hence these polls are pretty much an irrelevance.
Love this comment, since it is so risible. By the time the next GE happens, yes probably that's in 2029, Labour will in all likelihood have lost a tonne of seats - not least as measured in MSPs due to an absolute mauling in the 2026 HR election. Like you, eejit, Labour seems to think these polls "are pretty much an irrelevance" - that is how they are behaving. They will very likely pay the price ahead of that GE and, when the GE comes, they shall (very likely) be so below water to drown in that one too. Bring it on.
DeleteAnon@10:56pm,
Delete🤣🤣🤣🤣
You’re probably one of the dimwits who take Find Out Now polls seriously, and believe support for independence is at 56% !!!!
Propaganda? what a poor wee union soul you are
DeleteIt's over sonny boy, you people are on the way to being royally screwed.......by yourselves
Support for independence is closer to 60% than 50% now
DeleteAnon@11:21,
DeleteAye, according to the Find Out Now outfit!
"I'm going to stop commenting on your blog, James, because I don't want to outstay my welcome."
DeleteDo you remember these words, KC?
James you have a great gift of being a knob end.. and that is why I love you blog!
DeleteYou're more than welcome to love the blog. All normal people do. Just stop posting on it.
DeleteReform UK are just Mini-Trumps.
ReplyDeleteNothing else.
Extreme right, racist Mini-Trumps.
Al Gore just tore Trump a new one, by simply telling the truth -
Gore launched an attack on the Trump administration saying there were 'important lessons' to be learned from similarities with the early rise of Nazi Germany.
In a speech at a climate week event in San Francisco, Gore said: 'We've already seen, by the way, how popular authoritarian leaders have used migrants as scapegoats and have fanned the fires of xenophobia to fuel their own rise to power, and power-seeking is what this is all about'
Hs then goes on to specifically name Trump as one of the leaders he was talking about.
Trump is a racist, fascist clown and so are any British politicians and parties who sing from his racist fascist hymnsheet.
The SNP ran a very successful 2024 General Election campaign:
ReplyDelete"Vote SNP to stop the Tories and send a message to Keir Starmer".
500,000 SNP voters stayed away and the SNP went from 47 to 9 MPs.
The SNP has already started its very successful 2026 Holyrood Election campaign:
"Vote SNP to stop Reform UK and send a message to Keir Starmer".
500,000 SNP voters stay away and the SNP go from 61 MSPs to 30 MSPs. Reform UK go from 0 to 34 MSPs.
In 2029 Prime Minister Nigel Farage thanks the SNP for their publicity and support.
SNP: "We're only making plans, for Nigel. Nigel just needs that helping hand".
yir2 at 11.22 pm .... what have you been smoking?
DeleteSNP strategist at 11:32 PM
DeleteStandard reply from the deaf and stupid SNP ivory tower.
This bollocks is clearly from the Labour/tory/libdum/reform propaganda hate Scotland despise the Scottish right wing brigade arseholes. We can all quote XTC, me, I’ll quote The Clash:
Delete“All over people changin' their votes
Along with their overcoats
If Adolf Hitler flew in today
They'd send a limousine anyway”
Anon at 1:52 AM
DeleteIt's clearly from someone warning the SNP are playing into UK Ref's hands by giving them publicity. A warning falling on deaf ears. Silly billy. Toddle off.
8.06 Not the SNP playing into reform Nazi’s hand, it is the media giving Farage the publicity and twisting as per usual anything to make SNP and Scotland look bad. So maybe YOU should “toddle off” old boy!!! Chin Chin!!!
Delete"How can we beat Reform UK?
ReplyDeleteMomentum is on the side of Reform UK, but its success is by no means inevitable. It is the job of anti‑racists to stop the far right party.
This will take relentless campaigning by the organised working class. And it means exposing Reform UK’s racism and lies, celebrating migrants and refugees as welcome in Britain and directing class anger at the real enemy—those at the top of society.
This means pointing the finger at Farage’s mates in big business. The rich amassed vast wealth and backed politicians who slashed and privatised the NHS, allowed landlords to jack up rents and left public services to crumble.
It means pointing to research that concludes that immigration has had little impact on average wages. And highlighting the fact that migrants are more likely to be treating you as NHS doctors than waiting in line with you."
Wise words.
"How can we beat Reform UK?
DeleteWake up, smell the coffee, read their policies, put forward reasoned counter arguments and stop being a twat!
Fagash's fan club don't have policies. They have rants.
DeleteGut feeling is that Reform won't start to impact on the SNP vote next year unless they get over 30% nationally. But that 28% is coming close! If they hit 35% Nationally when the next UK election comes around they will clean up.. and legislate a new Scotland act.. INDY is then over!
ReplyDeleteReform have got some sensible policies (tax breaks for trainee nurses and so on) and not yet made any effort in Scotland yet, they are quietly building their Scottish base, infrastructure,
IT systems and supporters.
Refrom have crossed the threshold where many folk can "come out" and say they like their policies.. before you were called a "Nazi or stuff"
Take illegal immigration for example. There was a bit in the news about sex offenses in Glasgow jumping 40% in the last year? I'll leave it to you all to figure out what might be the cause!
There is the local elections coming up in England. Now both the Conservatives and Labour have cancelled / delayed the election in regions where they think they will do badly. OK politics is a rough game.. but if Reform make a fair go of it down south in the local elections then could the same happen here in Scotland?
"they are quietly building their Scottish base, infrastructure,
DeleteIT systems and supporters."
And Swinney is still not giving an answer about what a woman is. The SNP are grifters and you fuckwits are still supporting the SNP?
The holes in the roads, our kids education getting worse, NHS waiting times and shite ferries that don't run on time are still there?
Absolute lies where are your facts and figures. Your lot killed Scottish industry, your lot gave Scotland the Poll Tax, your lot are elitist corporate multi millionaires who WILL shut Scotland down. You really would have to be a fuckwit to believe any of the shite that comes out of unionist mouths. It is obvious they are shitting themselves as polls are showing independence is a bawhair from being the settled will of the Scottish nation!!!
DeleteSorry to say that if you are British your status is not going to change. “Bawhair” oh ma sides. Not what the Rev thinks by the way.
DeleteI am Scottish….never British!!!
DeleteQuestion?
ReplyDeleteWe can see that illegal immigration is out of control. There is an element of Scottish Nationalists that want to adopt say the same policy in Hungary.. Viktor Orbán. Keep Scotland for Scots.
Dave Francisc et all seem like a prime example of this. But thye do have a point.
The late Effie Deans wrote a great piece on whether we actually need immigration to be successful as in independent country. She argued well that if we educate our young folk to be productive then there is no need for the population of Scotland to increase as our young folk will be add much more value to the economy, pay a bit more tax and so on.
This is important as the young folk need to be earning ( bringing wealth into Scotland) and paying tax to support folk who have fought for indy but retiring.
Now there are a good few SNP voters who agree with this view. You may call them right wing nutters.. but they do have a point!
“We can see that illegal immigration is out of control”? Calm down Nigel Fanny Farage!!!
Delete"The late Effie Deans wrote a great piece on whether we actually need immigration to be successful as in independent country. She argued well that if we educate our young folk to be productive then there is no need for the population of Scotland to increase as our young folk will be add much more value to the economy, pay a bit more tax and so on."
DeleteScotland has an aging population though and there's a decreasing birth rate. If we have an increasing number of older people and we don't have a younger workforce in equivalent numbers to replace them... then it's only a matter of time until we have a massive problem.
Anon at 9:20
DeleteEffie Deans is nothing more that a couple or three unionist journalists using a pen name.
As such, anything it says can be safely binned as trash.
Asking for a friend. Can you have politically centre or right leaning principles and still want an independent Scotland. Say Taz, Shannon and Chris McElney?
ReplyDeleteYou make an excellent point about Sharon Donoghue being right wing
DeleteShe is creepy
I see the Reformers on here have crawled out of their racist fascist holes again.
ReplyDeleteKick them back in.
Filth.
On immigration. One sort we definitely dont want is retirees from elsewhere than Scotland. Post working age folk use more resources and contribute little . They have often selt a hoose doon sooth for a small fortune and move here thereby pushing up oor prices. And we don't earn the wages they can get in England!
DeleteAye and the English are very good st telling us how to do things right!
Reform plant.
DeleteThe anglos will have the highlands and borders/galloway. The bams will flood the central belt, and the native Scots, the rightful owners of all Scotland, will be corralled into their own little gaza strip along the M8 corridor. The anglo is an etho-supremacist, a little englander, a pirate, a thief and a murderer; civic nationalism is not for an aggressive invasive species.
Delete- in 50 years, we will be where the palestinians are now. And do not be shamed into "not noticing" the viciously aggressive economic cleansing the Scots have to endure - it is not racism, it is defensive and it is self regard, for our basic rights under the UN. We are not Anglos, he is not us and has no rights to be here. Scotland can never be free with these invaders controlling all aspects of our society.
the error of the civic nationalist is in thinking all he would open the doors for are themselves "civic nationalists"; no, they already have a nationality, an identity - they in fact be ethno-racial supremacists, with no intention whatsoever of "joining your gang", instead they want to, when they have the numbers, setup their own thing, and stuff you in a box - they have no interest in your country, its history, your culture, religion - they have their own and that is what they want to establish.
the more english the better - everyone loves them, all across spain and the med, and historically, kenya and ireland to name but two.
Deletealways remember multiculturalism is an absolute good and always works; different peoples coming together produces a hybrid vigour and prevents inbreeding and has never failed in history; serbs and croats, turks and kurds, hutus and tutsis, hindus and muslims, all shiny happy people, just gettin along and getting ahead, so why oh why don't the palestinians make their case to the SOFT NOES among the new palestinians of the IDF
Fuck the english.
DeleteI want them out. And a big fucking wall on the border, with automated phalanx gatling guns trained with AI to identify anglo invaders.
Ridiculous comment from the cretin at 10:14am. Sadly this sort of anti English rhetoric is becoming more common, and all decent independence supporters will agree it’s detrimental to the cause.
DeleteYoon Troll at 10:14
DeleteDavid Francis is a Fanny
Delete6.02 Fuckin try it, ya balloon.
Delete