Tuesday, June 14, 2022

#Referendum2023 : It's a certainty! Drama as it emerges our guaranteed independence referendum next year will go ahead EVEN WITHOUT A SECTION 30 ORDER

As you know, I think Nicola Sturgeon and the rest of the SNP leadership do not expect or intend to keep their signed-in-blood "no ifs, no buts" promise of an independence referendum in 2023.  However, the fact that they are continuing to ramp up expectations of what will probably prove to be a phantom referendum is a very good thing, because that makes it much harder for a reckoning to be avoided.  Harder but not impossible, mind - the SNP leadership have a track record of gratefully grabbing hold of any big news story that randomly comes along as an excuse for further delay.  But the likelihood is that the rank-and-file SNP membership will go into next year in the genuine belief that a referendum is imminent, and that means the leadership will have to factor in the danger of mass disillusionment - and perhaps mass defections - if members later feel they've been 'had'.  So, at the very least, the leadership are going to have to make it look like they made a serious and credible effort to deliver a referendum and were unexpectedly thwarted by forces outwith their control.

And that can no longer mean simply asking for a Section 30 order, pretending to be shocked when Boris Johnson says no, and then saying "this is totally unsustainable, vote SNP yet again in 2024 to tell Boris Johnson that he is doing something totally unsustainable".  To Nicola Sturgeon's credit, she has finally released us from the Section 30 trap, and says that a referendum can go ahead without the permission of London Tories.  So the failure of Johnson to respond to a Section 30 order will no longer be an acceptable excuse for inaction.  What Sturgeon has not done, though, is release us from the "legality" trap - she's still drawing an utterly bogus distinction between a "legal" and a "non-legal" referendum.  (In reality, the UK is not Spain and there is no such thing as an "illegal vote" here.  There are certainly votes that have no legal standing or recognition, but that doesn't prevent people from organising them.)  So the excuse for a lack of a referendum next year is now more likely to be legal in nature - "we tried, but we underestimated the conservatism of the Supreme Court, we can do no more for now".  

And, unfortunately, there is probably still enough goodwill towards Sturgeon among the SNP membership that they would accept that as a good enough excuse for the time being.  But such a sequence of events would still move us forward, because after a defeat in the Supreme Court any further talk of holding a referendum would then be seen as a dead end (barring something improbable such as a post-election deal with Starmer), and the debate would move on to the timing of a plebiscitary election.  Pete Wishart would hate it, but that's where the conversation would go.  So, on the whole, today's events are a positive development.

SCOT GOES POP #Referendum2023 COUNTDOWN CLOCK

There are just 205 days until the earliest possible date for #Referendum2023 (5th January)

There are just 555 days until the last possible date for #Referendum2023 (21st December)

(Note: the Countdown Clock calculations assume that tradition will be maintained by holding #Referendum2023 on a Thursday, and that it will be before Christmas.)

10 comments:

  1. We all know Johnston will oppose a Section 30 and some say it's already too late as WM and the Lords will have to vote it through. Surely the big question has to be, if Sturgeon is now prepared to abandon the 'gold standard' Section 30 - why has it taken 7years to enact an 'wildcat' referendum?
    We could have gone that route anytime at all, most auspiciously after the Brexit vote.

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    1. Nally, a very good question. The big dug Mr Kavanagh covered this point in an article in the past. He says people need to see that the sec 30 option has been exhausted and that the UK Government are acting like a dictatorship etc etc. before they will accept anything else. Personally, I think that is just rubbish and just another excuse for doing diddly squat.

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  2. No going back now unless Sturgeon wants to see the SNP destroyed. Just keep banging away about independence seems to be the policy now. Why not? Destroy the so-called united kingdom instead by political attrition.

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  3. It's that dreaded word "soon" again, isn't it? Another update "soon", another update "shortly". Quite why it has to be the case that these endless trailers and qualifiers have to be used and the announcements can't just be made when they can be made, I'm not sure.

    Still, it's about as much noise and movement as Sturgeon has made on it all for a while, so that's positive, even if as you say James it's still not entirely obvious it isn't all just going to turn out to be phantom.

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  4. Perhaps NS now sees the “ writing on the wall” and has decided to gamble with another “ No” outcome signalling the end of her “ era” aka her predecessor. If she wins then surely her legacy would be “ earth shattering” if not shattering the “ UK” . The financial trap set by Westminster as regards taxation & the “ Barnet formula” is set to be sprung within the next 2-3 years . The inability of finance minister Forbes to “ borrow” to fund Capital expenditure “ together with a “ Public sector “ workforce demanding inflation matching pay rises , a health service in crisis and requiring further vast increases in funding, education & local government likewise agitating for additional government “ assistance” , a “ Brexit” trade war possibly on the horizon , which would further disproportionately affect Scottish exports, etc . Just perhaps NIcola has “ seen the light” ( or dark) and now realised that it’s “ now or never” for her and her cronies . She can go out in a blaze of glory and win Scotland our freedom ( and be the nation again) or follow her predecessor in resigning the day after ( chains & slavery) . She knows the score .

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  5. Agree with all you say in this article. Numpties will continue to be numpties and that is what Sturgeon is banking on so that she can stay as long as possible as FM without ever delivering independence and when she has to go she will ensure Robertson and his horrible wife end up in Bute House. Numpties will then suck up any nonsense Robertson then expouses.

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  6. In an otherwise ok article the Big Dug fails to mention that Sturgeon said any referendum must be a legal referendum. Now I would have thought he would have noticed this. So just who will say any referendum is illegal and why. What law is being broken in asking the people a question. After all an election is asking the people a question - who do you want to govern you? It happens all the time.

    So did the Big Dug deliberately leave out this qualification made by Sturgeon?

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    1. Update:- the Big Dug now mentions it in his new article. Did he read my comment?🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

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  7. Dr Tethered Donkey of Superannuation Villas thinks that the ECHR has given Indy supporters a nod and a wink by announcing that "Flight XYZ123 to Rwanda is cancelled".
    I can't compete with that sort of masterly political analysis.

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  8. On the day Sturgeon and Harvie launch the independence campaign not one Scottish Government minister is available to be on STV's Scotland Tonight programme to debate with the lying Tory Craig Hoy. Bloody pathetic - what sort of signal does that send. To be fair Jim Fairlie does a reasonable job against the democracy denying lying Tory. Hoy says a promise was made that 2014 was a once in a generation referendum. It's about time the SNP started just stating that it is a lie and anyone saying it is a liar. He also blatantly lied by saying there is no mandate for a referendum. What does it take for the SNP to just call them liars. Oh that's right AIM said we have to be nice to liars and crooks.

    Totally sick of the Britnats and Sturgeons spineless approach.

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