We still don't have the exact date for #Referendum2023, but we're far closer to it thanks to an announcement from Angus Robertson, the Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution and External Affairs, on today's Good Morning Scotland -
"The First Minister made clear yesterday that she intends to make an announcement to the Scottish Parliament in the forthcoming weeks about the route-map towards the referendum, which we intend to hold next October."
Assuming tradition is maintained by holding #Referendum2023 on a Thursday, we can now narrow the date down to four possible options:
5th October 2023
12th October 2023
19th October 2023
26th October 2023
Let's hope it's the 5th, because October is a transitional month and the weather is often a lot better at the start than it is at the end. (For that reason, September might have been preferable, although perhaps there's some other major event in the calendar that would have clashed.)
In all seriousness, I think we are making some progress now. This most certainly doesn't mean a referendum will actually be held next year, but the Scottish Government have now gone far enough that it's going to be very hard for them to quietly march their troops back down from the top of the hill in the way they've got away with in the past. There would be a tremendous sense of betrayal among many SNP members and supporters if that happened, and it wouldn't be hard to imagine a large number of defections to Alba or to other independence parties. So to avoid that danger, the Scottish Government will know they'll have to make a credible attempt to deliver an October 2023 referendum, and if the vote doesn't take place it'll have to be clearly seen that it was external forces that thwarted it. As a result, it would be established that the type of referendum the SNP and Greens want to hold simply isn't viable, and the onus would then be on them to explain how they're going to deliver independence without a referendum. The only remaining game in town would be a plebiscitary election, which is something that no UK government or court can thwart.
* * *
SCOT GOES POP #Referendum2023 COUNTDOWN CLOCK
Thanks to the October announcement, the Countdown Clock will henceforth have considerably more precision - and note this means we are now less than 500 days away at most.
There are just 477 days until the earliest possible date for #Referendum2023 (5th October)
There are just 498 days until the last possible date for #Referendum2023 (26th October)
(Note: the Countdown Clock calculations assume that tradition will be maintained by holding #Referendum2023 on a Thursday.)
Yes James the plebiscitary election would appear to be the final step if all other routes to the votes fail . However would NS resign her Holyrood government and thereafter hold the PE or would she wait for the 2024 GE ?
ReplyDeleteDo you think that Jimbo The Donkey would go for a Wild Ass Referendum?
ReplyDeleteI trust you're referring to WGD superstar "Dr Jim" and not me.
DeleteThe SNP are making it up as they go along. Planning - timetable - referendum date - contrary to what the WGD numpties have said they don't exist. Just to help out the numpties - planning is not making it up as you go along. A timetable is a series of detailed times and dates for carrying out actions not making it up as you go along.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP could have ( there's that could have again) used May 2021 as a PE instead Sturgeon went for her both votes SNP crap. Sturgeon was more interested in remaining FM than delivering independence.
Wouldn't a Westminster election be a better arena for a PE than a Holyrood one? How do you determine the winner of a popular majority in an election where everyone has two votes? In 2021, pro-independence parties were narrowly ahead on list votes and narrowly behind on constituency votes. Is it possible to say which side of the issue won the "popular vote" in that election?
DeleteKeaton you just say in your manifesto that a vote in the Constituency ALONE is a vote to declare independence. Simple.
DeleteProblem with that is if the Unionists parties put an explicit commitment against independence in their own manifestos (which they presumably will), and then get more votes on the list, the result would still be ambiguous.
DeleteKeaton - and if the Britnats get more on the constituency as well then they win. This do nothing approach in case we lose will never deliver independence. 19 polls in a row with yes ahead up to a max of 58% and Sturgeon does nothing. Who knows what they will be in October next year.
DeleteProblem with doing nothing is that the Britnats always win.
I just want to say thanks for posting that most beautiful song by the legends that were, are, and will always be, The Corries.
ReplyDeleteThe commentators over on Wings are delusional and toxic. Yes - we’ve waited a very long time for indyref2 - but perhaps, as crazy as it seems - Sturgeons SNP might actually steer us toward it. I don’t like the woman, not one bit, but let’s get behind this and give it our best.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the good work James and stay positive! We need sites like this to get that important YES.
Do you mean like Mark Coburn who says:- " Contrary to what everyone is saying(and I understand why), I think Nicola Sturgeon will press ahead with matters. No Brexit and no Covid to hide behind. I think they know that they need to get this done."
DeleteOf course there are important events in September that take precedence over a referendum. There is the Ryder Cup and the group stage of the Davis Cup. Presumably it is October because the SG expect all Scottish football teams to be eliminated from Europe by then.
ReplyDeleteWe had the Ryder Cup in late September in 2014. I vividly remember wandering around the Gleneagles course trying to convince myself I still cared about golf a week after this country had trashed its own future because of a bunch of stupid scare stories.
DeleteI als remember the Britnat tossers booing Salmond at the closing ceremony at Gleneagles.
DeleteThe numpties are like Trump supporters. Whatever Sturgeon says and does is ALWAYS correct. Case in point:- for years Sec 30 the Gold standard was the only way so said the great leader. I said many times that a real Independence Party would say they were making last years Scot parliament a referendum on independence/PE. Numpties said Nicola knows best. Now Sturgeon says the sec30 is not necessary numpties go ok fine.
ReplyDeleteIf the WGD numpties were independent thinkers rather than SNP party drones they would be asking themselves why is Sandy Brindley, Rape Crisis Scotland who is never off the telly going on about the poor alphabetties gone silent over groper Grady. Is it because Rape Crisis Scotland is nearly wholly funded by guess who?
ReplyDeleteAnd then there is nasty WGD numpty Dr Jim. Jimbo likes to regularly take the moral high ground when it comes to Salmond but goes silent about groper Grady. Jimbo being a numpty may not be aware of the difference - Salmond was cleared of wrong doing groper was found guilty but Jimbo attacks Salmond. Jimbo has no justification for taking a moral high ground as he openly stated he has on many occasions grabbed women by the neck and physically escorted them off premises. Not a person I would like near any of my family, particularly the female members.
DeleteFinally great timing by the SNP they drag the groper case out for so long and then announce a referendum campaign just as it is announced groper is found guilty allowing the Britnat media to report this immediately after the referendum announcement on their TV programmes. Incompetence or deliberate by Sturgeon. The Britnat media must be laughing.
The difference between Grady and Salmond, apart from the fact that one is a sex pest and the other isn't, is that Grady is the 'right sort' of sex pest for Nicola - a gay one. Nicola seems to have a deep antipathy towards heterosexual men what with her witches coven at Bute House, her 'gender balanced' cabinet regardless of ability (Shirley Somerville anyone?) and her adoption of Patrick Harvie. (I won't mention her marriage😁). It's no surprise to see her at the head of so many Pride events with gay men and trans women - they're the only type of men to earn her approval.
DeleteTHE TORY BIG LIES
ReplyDeleteJust like Trump and his big lie about a fraudulent US election the Tories have clearly decided to go down the same route regarding Indyref2. I suppose if their leader (Johnson) is a pathological liar they are just following suit.
Lie 1 - there is no mandate for a referendum.
Lie 2 - the SNP promised in 2014 it was a once in a generation referendum.
Neil Gray SNP MSP did a reasonable job on last nights Debate Night as did Riddock but Maggie Chapman, Greens does not come across well. Both the Tories on the programme applied the big lies continuously. Gray was correct to call them out as democracy deniers and even said at one point it was a lie. The SNP need to do this more and more forcibly. Look at what happened in the USA with Trumps big lie - violence. The Tories are working on a strategy of keep telling the lies often enough and Britnat numpties will believe them.
LIE 3
DeleteThe Britnats are also pushing big time Lie 3 - a referendum that does not have Westminster approval is illegal.
As per the other two lies just because Britnats would love them to be true they are not, but plenty of people will believe them.
For the present we have to assume that this initiative is real. A very high priority should be the immediate establishment/relaunch of effective and politically independent YES groups, open to all and any independence supporters, in every possible area of the country.
ReplyDeleteNo ifs no buts let's get the network up again !
hear! hear!
DeleteSorry to have to tell you this James but you may have to change your countdown clock again. Neil Gray, Scottish Government minister, on Debate Night refused to say on a number of occasions that the referendum was planned for October next year. He continually said the autumn and would not confirm what Robertson said despite it being clearly put to him. On a positive note he did stongly defend the notion that it would take place in the autumn. So what is going on here? Can they not even get their story correct amongst the government ministers. More incompetence or was Robertson wrong? Is Sturgeon making this up as she goes along and nobody else is being updated and that's why no Scottish government minister attended Scotland Tonight on Monday. Or is it as Dr Jim says Sturgeon has a plan but she is keeping it to herself and it is securely locked in her handbag along with the knife she used to stab Salmond in the back.
ReplyDeleteWGD numpty thicko, thick plank of wud, hamster Hamish100 very silent about groper Grady, considering his comments about Salmond.
ReplyDeleteIt's good that you managed to use Alba to distinguish yourself. We wouldn't want anyone thinking you are a WGD numpty would we. Now the next step for you is to use your own words. Original thinking - please do try it.
DeleteThe Scottish election study of the 2021 Holyrood election has been published. Some quite interesting facts.
ReplyDeletehttps://github.com/ScottishElectionStudy/Scottish_Election_Study_2021
Dave Llewelyn stating that the Daily Record and the Scotsman have printed lies about him. Par for the course for the Britnat media and Britnats in general. The UK and its little scumbag helpers in Scotland really is a shithouse. Now the Tory MPs want to remove us from the European Court of Human rights. The fascists are on the move in the UK.
ReplyDeleteFMQ's Today
ReplyDeleteSturgeon actually started to sound like a leader of an Independence Party. Has she been getting testosterone injections? Let's hope it continues and it's not all a show for nicophants like Dr Jim who probably dreams about her. Took her long enough - " INDEPENDENCE IS THE SOLUTION". Yes it is FM - deliver or go away and take your gang with you.
Hamish100 thinks I need counselling. The clues in the name thicko. What I need is Independence for Scotland. Numpties like you are why we are still in the U.K. Is there a date in law for a referendum Hamish - no. What ya gonna say when campaigning - vote yes in a referendum that I don't have a date for. YA NUMPTY!! The actual live Duke of York may be banished from sight but the grand old Duke of York still marches up the hill. It remains to be seen if we stay there.
ReplyDeleteSturgeon previously said there would be a referendum in 2023. She said it again on Monday. What's new? Only numpties take politicians at their word and let them do and say anything and that is dangerous.
Yes Hamish you are like Trump supporters.
Sturgeon (the nawbag( can do fake section 30 request, then fake a process of a non-section 30 referendum which will be challenged and lost. that'll take ages and she'll string it out so that there is no pleb election demands in advance of Holyrood 2026. Alba will stand on that and the nawbag will say some pish about alba again with her bbc friends. So no pleb eletion at a minimum until 2031.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile people from the rest of the UK are moving here at an increasing rate. These people are mainly form England are middle class professionals, high political participation rates and have higher numbers of children than Scottish people who have the lowest fertility rate in west europe. They are also overwhelmingly nawbag and will make their way onto the electionral register here.
Here are the latest trends:
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/migration/flows/jun-21/mig-uk-91-latest-tab1.xlsx
This trend is actively encouraged by the nawbag in her 10 year devo unionist economic transformation plan where she plans to further increase people moving to scotland form rest of UK to make up for the loss of inmigration from brexit:
"A 25% increase in people relocating from the rest of the UK to Scotland would double net migration and add 100,000 people to Scotland's labour pool over the course of this strategy."
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-national-strategy-economic-transformation/pages/7/
This inmigration effect of no voters is 3 times bigger than the dwindling youth yes effect which suffers itself from low participation rates, low fertility, and ignores the impact of people becoming more No as they age.
This truth is uncomfortable as it sounds speciously racist. It's not racist. No other European countries would allow non-citizens (say a 10 year residency test with a vote on their constitution) but the nawbag is actively encouraging it.
Super-hero Salmond of course knows this and will hopefully get cherry to defect post-wm 2024 (once she's won her seat) to alba and stand as Alba leader on the list in 2026 to get to the much needed 5-6% before we end up with an irreversible wales type demographic problem.
I've singled out the group that is moving here in overwhelmingly large numbers and will be increasingly so as part of sturgeon's policy that disproportionately blocks independence as being a reason for both getting on with delivering independence and from keeping them off the franchise if they haven't lived here for ten years like every other European country does on constitutional matters.
DeleteNawbag.
My local council East Renfrewshire was an SNP controlled council. It is now a Britnat controlled council. An example of the ignorant SNP policy of vote for no other party than the SNP. Just like in May last year the SNP party drones prefer Britnats being elected to other Independence Party representatives. The result is more councils being governed by Britnat coalitions and loads more Britnat MSPs sitting in their seats in Holyrood.
ReplyDeleteEast Renfrewshire announced that they would not facilitate any referendum not approved by Westminster.
Sturgeon may talk about wanting independence but why do so many of her actions work against independence.
Proud of yourselves you morons.
I did think that this "Vote SNP, SNP (and nobody else)" nonsense would come back to bite them. I am surprised it has happened so quickly. No one expected them to blatantly support other Indy parties, but they didn't have to go out of their way to ensure there was no alternative vote. All they had to do was go quiet, back off (a wee wink here and there) instead of a concerted effort to prevent alternative indy voting. Now we have quite a few hostile, yoon-controlled councils who are not going to play ball if/when the next referendum kicks off. Well done, SNP - you own this.
Delete19 October is during the school holiday week, which mabe eliminates that Thursday
ReplyDeleteIndependence supporters around 2014 used to consider themselves more intelligent than nawbags. The whole Alba saga has exposed that self-congratulatory backslapping fallacy for it is. Only 1.7% of the electorate or around 3.5% of so-called independence supporters saw through the completely obvious Sturgeon led propaganda ably assisted by her BBC friends to vote for a real Yes party, preferring that charlatan instead. So, they're either dim wits or not actually real Yes. Probably both.
ReplyDeleteIf you really believe that "probably" only 1.7% of the electorate are "real Yes" then the referendum is never going to be winnable, so I don't know why you're worrying about demographic changes and so on.
DeleteNo I think the rest are a combination of fake yes sturgeon lovers, half wits, popularists (unwilling to do something that is unpopular) and mainly just uninformed and believe the media they are given despite pointing the finger at no voters for doing the same thing in 2014. I think they are culpable too but it's irrelevant as they won't be found out ..I'm pretty sure independence is dead despite salmonds best efforts... which is why alba supporters are "so angry" you complete half wits.. at a much more extreme level are the silent who don't say agitate with navalny culpable?
DeleteP.s. have you actually checked the links I've posted...the UK wants a go slow policy as English people are moving here encouraged by sturgeon.
As for the why I'm worrying about demographics you dim wit, the SNP SNP or SNP green types believe the hype by sturgeon that " indyref2" is going to happen..so they'd at least elect a nominally independence party to keep the flame somewhat alive... When actual nawbags outnumber us encouraged by sturgeon see the links the game's truly a bogey
DeleteDo you think it will actually happen?
ReplyDelete1) with agreement from the UK government?
2) without the agreement of the UK government (result disputed if less than 50% of the electorate vote yes)?
3) without the agreement of the UK government and blocked by the courts so it has to be a consultation only?
I think something will happen in October next year but no idea what!
The National reporting that Blowhard Blackford is in trouble after it was leaked that Blackford urged all the SNP MPs to get behind groper Grady. I'm guessing that is the safest place for them to be rather than in front of him so Blackford's advice seems very appropriate.
ReplyDeleteThe double standards ( well actually do they have any standards ) of the SNP and the crap Murrell came out with in the Parliamentary Inquiry about the SNP's procedures and history in these matters is staggering. I very much doubt Murrell sent Ruddick any secret messages telling her to get the Met police to ramp up a full investigation into groper Grady as he did with Salmond.
Not a word on WGD. Just like Trump supporters the leadership can just do anything they want and the SNP drones set aside any decency/standards/ethics/morals they may have once possessed.
The Bathtub Admiral on WGD isnae happy about The National reporting that Sturgeon is planning an "illegal referendum" and claims that it is the journalist who must have used these words as the Scottish Government would never do so.
ReplyDeleteThe Admiral says " The Scottish government wouldn't say that! It's wrong, dumbwrong and as legislators and the executive, they know better!"
Well Admiral I have news for you Sturgeon in her speech in Jan 2020 said she would not be carrying out an illegal wildcat referendum. You really need to pay more attention before you start calling your idol dumb. Ya NUMPTY.
Unlike Sturgeon I hold the opinion that a Scottish Parliament asking the people of Scotland how they want to be governed can NEVER be illegal. Sturgeon like the Britnats is full of (convenient) Britnat misconceptions.
DeleteBlackford Sturgeon Robertson - disgusting liars and hypocrites. They spent years saying they supported the phoney victims, the alphabetties, but when they have a real victim they abuse him further and applaud the groper Grady since 2016 and try to turn him into a victim. No High Court trial for Grady just a 2 day suspension.
ReplyDeleteWhat do the WGD numpties have to say about this - well the Bathtub Admiral says the SNP MPs should be told to abstain from alcohol when at Westminster.
You couldn't make this shit up.
To be fair to the Bathtub Admiral he does subsequently make some critical comments about how the SNP handled the Grady affair e.g "The total IQ of the 45 SNP MPs is less than 100, let alone the average." and " ....even Angus Robertson contaminated himself by supporting the drunken groper rather than the teenage victim...." The other WGD numpties - silence.
DeleteThe Treaty of Union 1707 protected Scots law and the Scottish legal system in perpetuity. Hence the very distinct Scottish legal system in operation to this day. There is no "British Legal system" no matter how much the Britnats would wish there was. As part of this law the Claim of Right which is well established, confirmed in a court case in 1953 and in the House of Commons more recently confirms the sovereignty of the Scottish people over who governs them.
ReplyDeleteIf you ask the people of Scotland a question about who governs them then it is mandatory not optional to implement the result. The EU referendum was such a question. The people of Scotland voted to remain in the EU but the Queen, Johnston and Sturgeon acted illegally in Scots law and acted contrary to the Treaty of Union.
Similarly in Scots law a referendum about the UK Union is not just consultative it has a mandatory requirement to implement the result. People like Sturgeon, the Big Dug and the mad liar Irish Skier who go on about a referendum in Scotland being "only consultative as are all referendums in the UK" are bowing down to the English law and the English constitution. Or as Dr Jim would put it "prostrating" themselves before Westminster.
In summary, Sturgeon followed the Britnat( English) Westminster Parliament is sovereign constitution in English law. By doing so she confirmed that Scotland is in effect a colony and Sturgeon is a betrayer of the Scots sovereignty and Scots law. All we got was Blowhard Blackford continuously saying we would not be taken out of the EU against our will.
Under Scots law it will never be illegal to ask Scots a question about who governs them. Under English law it may well be but English Law SHOULD NOT be applicable to Scots. If it is the Treaty has been broken once again and Scotland is nowt but a colony - a subjugated nation.
Under International law all nations/people have the right to self determination.