Saturday, May 8, 2021

FINAL RESULTS: The SNP gain one seat overall, will *not* be a minority govt as long as there's an opposition Presiding Officer - and pro-independence parties win majority of the popular vote on the list

I haven't calculated the national popular vote on the list yet, but John Curtice stated that the SNP, Greens and Alba have 51% between them, so I'm sure that's true.  Given the importance the Tories have placed on the #PeachVote, I don't see how they can dismiss that outcome.

In terms of seats, the BBC projection was almost but not quite right - the SNP won one seat more and the Greens took one seat fewer.  That makes no difference to the outcome for the pro-indy parties combined, but crucially it means the SNP will be neither a majority nor minority government as long as an opposition MSP is selected as Presiding Officer.  It'll be a 64-64 split between government and opposition.

Final results:

SNP 64 (+1)
Conservatives 31 (-)
Labour 22 (-2)
Greens 8 (+2)
Liberal Democrats 4 (-1)

Pro-independence parties: 72 seats (56%)
Anti-independence parties: 57 seats (44%)

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 15 SEATS

BBC projects pro-independence parties will have 56% of the seats in the new Scottish Parliament - up from 53% last time

BBC forecast:

SNP 63 (-)
Conservatives 31 (-)
Labour 22 (-2)
Greens 9 (+3)
Liberal Democrats 4 (-1)

Pro-independence parties: 72 seats (56%)
Anti-independence parties: 57 seats (44%)

Not only is the mandate stronger than the last time, it's also more watertight because the language in the Green manifesto is much more explicit.  The SNP have also of course surged to a record high for any party in the constituency ballot popular vote.

Scot Goes Popcast: Reflections on the first day of election results

For a very short Episode 8 of the Popcast, I recorded some thoughts on the election results so far and looked ahead to what may be happening on the regional list.  You can either listen via the embedded player below, or via the direct link HERE.


You can also catch up with previous episodes of the Popcast -

A weary response to yet another personal attack from Wings Over Scotland

I was going to wait until the election was done and dusted before replying to my Somerset stalker's five hundred and sixty-eighth unhinged blogpost about me (which, amusingly, he describes as his "second" - it would be fascinating to know what his technical excuses are for thinking all the others "didn't count").  However, on closer inspection the post contains a number of inaccurate statements - lies, for want of a better word - so just as a matter of principle I'm not going to let those go uncorrected.

The most blatant lie is also the most bizarre.  Stuart claims that I "swiftly banned" him yesterday after he made a series of angry posts in the comments section of this blog.  As I have explained umpteen times, it is quite literally impossible to "ban" anyone on the Blogger platform.  When people troll or are abusive, the only options open to me are to delete comments individually (which itself has become much, much harder on the new interface that was introduced a few months ago) or to turn on pre-moderation.  The fact that I'm currently following the latter course of action tells you all you need to know - if it were possible to "ban" people, that would solve the problem instantly and pre-moderation would be needless.

Incidentally, although I've deleted some of Stuart's individual comments in the distant past, I didn't do so yesterday (except for a couple of accidental duplicates which I removed as a tidying-up exercise).  So this "banning" claim isn't based on some sort of innocent misunderstanding - it does appear to be a very intentional lie.

What he wants his readers to believe I was trying to prevent him from posting was a protestation that he did not in fact do what everyone saw him do yesterday - ie. tell his readers to vote for unionist parties in twelve specific constituency seats.  He seems to think that his get-out-of-jail-free card on this is a comment he added at the end of his piece stating that the only seat in which he'd advocate a vote for a unionist party was Glasgow Southside.  That would be just peachy if it wasn't for the inconvenient fact that this comment flatly contradicted the explicit and repeated advice earlier in the blogpost to vote against the SNP in the other eleven seats.  The exact words used, again and again and again, were "Alba supporters cannot afford to vote SNP in those seats".

Here's my top tip, Stu: not everyone who reads your blogposts will be a complete idiot.  Some of your readers, perhaps only a select few, but undoubtedly some, will be able to spot that your words mean what they say and that a nonsensical throwaway disclaimer doesn't negate them. 

The second disgraceful lie is that I have not been supportive of Craig Murray, who faces a potential jail sentence due to his courageous reporting of the Alex Salmond trial.  Stuart alleges that my supposed lack of support for Craig is because I think there is more "traffic" to be had from attacking Wings.  The narcissism behind that statement is truly mind-boggling. The reality, of course, is that I've been vocal in my support for Craig, as the below tweet from late March amply demonstrates.  At time of writing, it's been retweeted 196 times and 'liked' 593 times.  Just because Stuart hasn't been paying attention doesn't mean that nobody else has.

Furthermore, one year ago I put my name to an open letter deploring the arrest and charging of both Craig and Mark Hirst. I've also spoken to Craig privately twice within the last few weeks - we mostly discussed politics, but I don't think he's in any doubt as to where my sympathies lie.

To return to the subject of Stuart's narcissism, you may have noticed that he seems to be incapable of writing an attack post about a fellow blogger without including a graph purporting to show that he has a much bigger readership.  The obvious joke is that he's using the alleged size of his readership as a substitute for the size of his manhood.  A few weeks ago he included Scot Goes Pop in a graph that showed how his stats towered above the other leading four pro-independence blogs.  To which my reaction was the obvious: "so you're saying I'm in the top five, then?"  In his new post he says that "hardly anyone" is reading Scot Goes Pop, and to illustrate his point reveals that SimilarWeb estimates that this blog has "only" had 464,872 page views so far this year.  That's a rather interesting definition of "hardly anyone".

Of course it's unique readers that really matter, and on that measure the disparity in traffic between Wings and other websites shrinks.  Stuart actually helpfully revealed his monthly unique readership the other day, and it looks as if it's roughly seven or eight times bigger than Scot Goes Pop's.  That obviously still makes Wings the far more popular site, but a) that's something I've never disputed, and b) he would dearly love people to believe the gap is far, far bigger than it actually is.  The reason why the number of page views can be so wildly misleading is that every time someone refreshes a page to read new comments, that's counted as another page view - and presumably people are doing that far more often on Wings.

My guess is that Stuart is lashing out because he realises he blew it yesterday.  Until then, a decent number of people were giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming that his ultimate objective was still independence, even if his means of achieving it were dubious and convoluted.  But the mask has now slipped.  You don't achieve independence by electing Willie Rennie as the MSP for North-East Fife.  

No, Stuart's agenda is something different.  His single-minded objectives are to stop self-identification for trans people, and to gain revenge against Nicola Sturgeon.  That doesn't mean he's actively opposed to independence, but it comes a very poor second to his real priorities.

Friday, May 7, 2021

The future of the Alba Party

Now, to be clear, there can be no guarantee that any new political party will survive the type of setback that Alba has just suffered.  There are various potential scenarios in which Alba might fold over the coming months.  However, at this moment there does seem to be a genuine determination to continue, and that's perfectly realistic - there aren't many small parties that can boast two MPs and a good number of local councillors.  There would be two main purposes of persevering: a) to provide a much-needed political home for independence supporters who are clearly unwelcome in the new SNP for mostly irrational reasons, and b) to pressurise the SNP into keeping their word and holding an independence referendum in the next parliamentary term.  The latter is obviously the more important reason.

One way in which Alba could have helped bring a referendum about if they had succeeded in this election was by providing an alternative for SNP MSPs who finally lose patience with the feet-dragging of the SNP leadership.  The knowledge that MSPs could defect to the Alba group at any time would have kept the First Minister on her toes and given her an incentive to avoid any further undue delays.  It's obviously harder to achieve that effect without a ready-made Alba group in Holyrood, but it can still be done as long as Alba continues to exist.  SNP MSPs would have the option of setting up a new Alba group in the Scottish Parliament whenever they want, and they'd be stepping into an existing party infrastructure.

So I firmly believe that Alba should press on, with one very important caveat: it would be a terrible mistake to put up candidates at the 2024 UK general election, unless there's an electoral pact with the SNP.  I presume that wouldn't be done anyway, but it's worth just putting that on the record.  Whether we like it or not, UK general elections do still matter, and splitting the pro-independence vote in first-past-the-post contests would be catastrophic.

Incidentally, although there'll obviously be a fair amount of nasty triumphalism tomorrow among Alba-haters, one of their constant refrains appears set to be proved wrong.  They kept insisting that by drawing attention to the tactical possibilities on the list, Alex Salmond had unwittingly boosted the Green vote instead.  But it appears that the Greens themselves are slightly underperforming their opinion poll showing - and, frankly, that's bad news for all of us, although the pro-independence majority does look more or less secure now.  

Patience, Stuart, I fully intend to do what I said I'd do. But for now I've got an election to concentrate on, even if your own mind appears to be elsewhere.

The early results are in...

Thoughts and rumours as the counting starts

We're now in the fog of war stage where rumours are starting to circulate, but it's difficult to know what to take seriously.  I've heard enough to make me slightly jittery, though, so I went back and refreshed my memory about the opinion polls in the run up to the 2017 general election.  Although the polls that year did overestimate both the SNP's vote share and their lead over the Tories, the degree of error was not all that huge.  That's good news because it means there'd have to be a far bigger polling error for us to end up with a 2017-type result this time.  So whatever happens I don't think it'll be quite as bad as that.  The other thing about 2017 is that it was a pincer movement in which both the Tories and Labour made progress simultaneously - it's hard to imagine that happening after the results in England overnight.

I've also heard that there may be a high turnout.  My theory has been that a low turnout would favour Alba as an individual party, but that a high turnout would be better for the pro-independence parties in combination.

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You can catch up with Episode 7 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak with the Alba Party's Chris McEleny, HERE.

Thursday, May 6, 2021

As the polls close, let's wrap up some unfinished business

It's 10pm, the polls have closed, and if this was a UK general election we'd have just instantly found out the entire election result via a BBC exit poll.  But as this is 'only' Scotland, there's no exit poll, and as there's also a pandemic, we're effectively living in 1923 and won't know the full results until Saturday.  Until then, let's kill some time by dotting the i's and crossing the t's of the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll - this is the very last result, and the only one that produced an out-and-out negative outcome.  I asked whether the fact that a number of MPs and local councillors had joined Alba meant the party should receive roughly the same level of coverage from the broadcasters as the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.  Although only a minority of people agreed, it was a substantial minority, and it's worth making the point that a previous poll showed majority support (excluding Don't Knows) for Alba being included in the leaders' debates.  Taken together, the two polls suggest the centre of gravity in public opinion is that Alba should have received considerably more coverage than they did over the course of the campaign, but not necessarily full parity with the longer-established parties. 

Given that two MPs and several local councillors have joined the new Alba Party, do you think the broadcasters should give roughly the same level of coverage to the Alba Party in the current Scottish Parliament election campaign as they do to the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Green Party?

Yes 33%
No 48%

It was pointed out to me after I received the results that one of the problems with the question wording was that I was inviting Lib Dem and Green supporters to take a self-interested view - and sure enough 58% of the small sample of Lib Dem voters said "no", which was slightly higher than the corresponding figure of 56% for both Conservatives and Labour.  A slightly more fair-minded attitude was found among SNP voters - 36% thought there should be parity and 49% disagreed.  There was a difference between age groups as well - younger people were somewhat less hostile to the idea of equal coverage than older people.

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You can catch up with Episode 7 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak with the Alba Party's Chris McEleny, HERE.

If you're voting Alba on the list today (and you should!), that means you support independence and should also be voting SNP on the constituency ballot WHEREVER you live

You know, it would have been really lovely to think that all of us bloggers supporting Alba on the list would be pulling in the same direction today of all days, the most crucial election day since September 2014.  But Stuart Campbell has made that impossible with the stupidest, most irresponsible blogpost in the history of the independence movement.  He has chosen pollling day - polling day - to issue a recommendation to his readers to vote for unionist parties on the constituency ballot in no fewer than TWELVE specific seats.  Either the man is on drugs or he's ceased to be an independence supporter.

The point he's making is that if unionist parties win those seats, it's slightly more likely that Alba will win a list seat in the corresponding electoral region.  And in the literal sense that's true.  It's a point I've made myself - the advice Alba have put on their leaflets to vote SNP on the constituency ballot is self-sacrificing advice.  Because here's the thing: Alba's purpose is not to maximise Alba representation, it's to maximise pro-independence representation.  Six Alba seats in an indy-majority parliament achieves something.  Ten Alba seats in a unionist-majority parliament achieves absolutely nothing.

If the SNP perform exceptionally well in the constituencies in any region, what it effectively does is crowd out all of the other parties and makes fewer seats available for them than their share of the list vote would otherwise justify.  Alba would suffer from that a bit, but the unionist parties would suffer from it a lot.  The latter point is far more important than the former.

If for some reason your objective is to have Alba MSPs in a unionist parliament, that means you have an agenda which is unrelated to independence.  Which all adds up, because it's hard to escape the impression that Stuart's first love these days is the trans issue.  But Alba itself is about independence - first, last and always.

No matter where you live, I strongly recommend that you vote SNP on the constituency ballot, and Alba on the regional list ballot.  You can read my reasons for supporting Alba HERE.

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UPDATE: This line from Stuart's piece warrants closer attention - "Glasgow Southside, where a surprise win for Anas Sarwar would be all but guaranteed to be balanced with an SNP list seat..."  That is an astonishingly brazen line of argument from someone who based the whole case for a Wings Party on the claim that it was practically impossible for the SNP to win list seats anywhere.  If the SNP lose Glasgow Southside (which they won't, by the way), they would still have eight constituency seats out of nine in Glasgow and it would be a tall order for them to win even a single list seat in the city.  It's possible they'd manage it, but "all but guaranteed" is breathtakingly dishonest.


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Catch up with Episode 7 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak with the Alba Party's Chris McEleny, HERE.

Who wants a second chance?


But if you want it, you have to vote for it, and you have to vote for it today.  Tomorrow will be too late.

An SNP vote on the constituency ballot is absolutely essential.  Ignore the siren voices making the logic-defying argument that "strategic" abstentions or votes for unionist candidates can by some convoluted roundabout manner assist the cause.  Only a vote for the SNP can do the job on the constituency ballot, for two reasons.  Due to the repeated recent history of failures by polling companies, you always have to consider the worst-case scenario, and the outlier ComRes poll painted a vivid picture of that yesterday: the SNP falling well short of an overall majority and the pro-independence parties vulnerable to losing their combined majority if there's any more slippage.  By voting against the SNP on the constituency ballot (and that includes votes for the Greens or for Bonnie Prince Bob), you could tip the balance and produce a unionist majority in the next Scottish Parliament.  The second reason is the popular vote: any mandate for independence or for an indyref will be either buttressed or undermined by the strength or weakness of the popular vote mandate - and it's much harder for pro-indy parties to win a majority on the constituency popular vote, simply because the Greens are much weaker on that ballot.  So, again, if you vote for a unionist candidate, you could tip the balance and create a unionist majority on the popular vote - or increase that majority if it's already there.

A vote for the Alba Party on the regional list ballot is equally important - it greatly increases the chances that the SNP will actually use any mandate they win today.  Someone said in the comments section of this blog the other day that the only reason we haven't had a second referendum so far is that Nicola Sturgeon thought we'd lose it, and she was just being sensible about the timing.  I don't think that's true at all.  I think the main reason was her unwillingness to face the UK government down and explore alternative avenues for seeking a mandate if a Section 30 order continued to be refused.  She certainly gave every impression of being deadly serious about calling a referendum when she made that announcement in the spring of 2017.  By all accounts it was quite a shock to SNP strategists when Theresa May came back with the "now is not the time" line - they thought the 2014 precedent guaranteed that a Section 30 order would be granted and that a referendum would go ahead in late 2018 or early 2019.  In other words, we'd have had a referendum by now if the SNP hadn't accepted a "no" from Westminster.  I'm afraid it's entirely possible we'll still be making that observation in 2026 if we don't do something today to change the dynamic.

Whenever I've reported a poll showing Alba on two seats, or three seats, or five seats, or eight seats, there have been snorts of derision from the "both votes SNP" brigade.  "What do you think three Alba MSPs can possibly achieve?" they ask scornfully.  Well, as those people are asking you to vote SNP on the list, and as there were only four SNP list MSPs in the last parliament, and as some polls in this campaign suggest the SNP might only win one or two list seats today, it's reasonable to turn that question on its head.  What is it exactly that you think a handful of SNP list MSPs can achieve that a handful of Alba MSPs can't?  When you look at it that way, it becomes obvious that a small Alba group of MSPs would be much more effective - they'll be independent actors who can pressurise the SNP government.  By contrast, a small number of SNP list MSPs will, in a relative sense, be lobby fodder.  (Although, let's be clear, that would still be infinitely preferable to unionists MSPs - if you can't bring yourself to vote for Alba for whatever reason, for heaven's sake get out there and vote for another pro-indy party.)

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You can catch up with Episode 7 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak with the Alba Party's Chris McEleny, HERE.