A plea to Peter Capaldi - if you're the new Doctor, please use your natural accent

I've no idea if the rumours swirling around that Peter Capaldi is the new Doctor Who have any truth to them. Certainly last time round when the bookies got to the point of refusing new bets, it turned out they had settled on the right name (Matt Smith came out of nowhere after Paterson Joseph had been the long-term favourite). But it may be that the BBC have learned from that experience, and that Capaldi's name is being used as a decoy, or is just a spontaneous false rumour. My guess is that the production team might be (wrongly) concerned about choosing someone of Capaldi's age, if only because the audience have become accustomed to younger Doctors since the show's comeback in 2005.

But if by any chance Capaldi is the choice, my fervent hope is that he won't follow in David Tennant's footsteps by ditching his Scottish accent. If it's plausible for a Time Lord from Gallifrey to speak the Queen's English, or to use Christopher Eccleston's Lancashire accent, or even to have a semi-Scottish accent during his seventh incarnation, then there's no good reason why he shouldn't speak like Malcolm Tucker, albeit perhaps without the expletives. Tennant's decision to become the first Doctor in history to abandon his natural accent was the absolute epitome of the Scottish cringe. If this whole 'better together' thing (which it's assumed Tennant is a firm believer in) has any meaning at all, it ought to be about celebrating each other's differences, not about everyone in Britain aspiring to the 'normality' of being a good little Englishman.

Jeremy Purvis reaches the light at the end of the tunnel

One of the constant refrains from Neanderthal opponents of electoral reform in the London parties is that it is simply unconscionable to have a system that enables a "loser to win".  We heard it endlessly during the AV referendum campaign, but it's also often been raised as an objection to the AMS system used for the Scottish Parliament, which makes it possible for a candidate who has been defeated in a constituency to still be elected on the regional list.

Curiously, though, there seems to be considerable overlap between complaints about the so-called "losers winning" vagaries of PR, and enthusiastic support for the House of Lords as an anachronism that supposedly "works".  Chiefly, of course, the anachronism works by allowing "sound chaps" like Jeremy Purvis to carry on legislating for us in spite of having been roundly rejected by the errant electorate of Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale.

Altogether now...

Every loser wins
Once the dream begins
In time you'll see, fate holds the key
And every loser knows
The light the tunnel shows
Will shine on you

Jeremy was so right to keep the faith. Why would a Liberal Democrat need democracy?

* * *

Plaid Cymru seem to be storming to victory in the Ynys Môn by-election - a huge relief, given that it will deprive Labour of an outright majority in the Welsh Assembly. Although it may have looked like a safe seat for Plaid on paper, that was highly deceptive because Labour have held the equivalent Westminster seat since 2001 (a situation eerily reminiscent of the Aberdeen Donside by-election, where of course the incumbent government's parliamentary majority was also hanging in the balance).

Plaid were helped along by some stardust from their TV personality candidate Rhun ap Iorwerth, a man so famous that even I recognised him straight away. He's already being spoken of as a potential long-term successor to Leanne Wood as party leader, although I was slightly shocked to read this reaction from a Labour source -

"Plaid are getting rather ahead of themselves. Rhun is likely to win the by-election, but talk of him as a future leader is very premature...

Most people in Wales won’t even be able to pronounce his name, and it’s difficult to imagine someone called Rhun ap Iorwerth going down well in Islwyn."

Can you even begin to imagine the outrage if Labour had made that comment about a candidate with a Pakistani or Chinese name? And yet what exactly is the difference?

* * *

UPDATE : The sensational Ynys Môn result in full -

Plaid Cymru 58.2% (+16.8)
Labour 15.9% (-10.3)
UKIP 14.3% (+14.3)
Conservatives 8.5% (-20.7)
Socialist Labour 1.6% (+1.6)
Liberal Democrats 1.4% (-1.8)

Dramatic YouGov poll suggests that Scots are least likely to care whether men wear red trousers or not

Still no sign of that elusive YouGov poll on referendum voting intentions - there hasn't been one since October 2012, which in some ways is just as well, because of course YouGov are notorious for using biased 'explanatory' preambles, and for producing results that are more favourable for No than virtually any other pollster.  But what they have come up with instead is something that is even more overdue.  At last we have some clarity on the regional breakdown of opinion in the great 'men wearing red trousers' debate.  Paradoxically, Scots are both less likely to like the idea of men wearing red trousers AND to dislike the idea.  See for yourself...

PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO LIKE THE IDEA OF MEN WEARING RED TROUSERS:

London 20%
South excluding London 12%
Wales and English Midlands 10%
North of England 12%
Scotland 9%

PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO DISLIKE THE IDEA OF MEN WEARING RED TROUSERS:

London 46%
South excluding London 48%
Wales and English Midlands 48%
North of England 41%
Scotland 40%

PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO DON'T CARE WHETHER MEN WEAR RED TROUSERS OR NOT:

London 34%
South excluding London 40%
Wales and English Midlands 42%
North of England 48%
Scotland 51%

I am genuinely not making this up.

Yes campaign gains support in latest independence poll

The good news from the latest poll of referendum voting intentions conducted by Panelbase is that the Yes vote is up one point.  The bad news is that the No vote is also up by two points.  Essentially, then, this is a steady-as-she-goes poll, which shows the Yes campaign still firmly within striking distance.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 37% (+1)
No 46% (+2)

The poll was jointly commissioned by fundamentalist Brit Nat rag The Sunday Times, which notes through gritted teeth that Yes supporters show a greater inclination to turn out to vote, before reassuring itself that No is "maintaining a strong lead".  Really?  A nine-point lead with a full year-and-a-quarter to go is "strong"?  Prime Minister Kinnock might beg to differ...

*  *  *

UPDATE : Not being a payer of the Murdoch levy, I've only just caught up with the Holyrood voting intention figures, which show the SNP building on their already humongous lead -

Constituency vote:

SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 30% (-)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-1)

Regional list vote:

SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 25% (-2)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Greens 6% (-)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-2)

Our future is in safe hands with Gavin Pearson

As we all know, budding DJs are required to take a degree in Un-Self-Awareness at the University of Foot-In-Mouth, and I'm delighted to say that all those years of hard work have paid off handsomely for Gavin Pearson of Clyde 1. Earlier today, he hosted a live music stage at the Merchant City Festival, and between acts handed out tickets to other events at the festival to people who answered quiz questions "correctly". You're way ahead of me here - "correctly" is in inverted commas for a reason.

Question 1 was : "What is the capital city of Brazil?" The surprisingly knowledgeable audience shouted out "Brasilia!" in near-unison. But Pearson didn't seem terribly impressed, muttering "nope, doesn't sound right". He turned to the teenage girls near the front (they were there to see the boyband Supernova), and said "help them out here, tell them what the capital of Brazil is". One of them offered "Mongolia" as a suggestion, at which point Pearson rolled his eyes and said "our future is clearly in safe hands, ladies and gentlemen".

"Come on," he implored, "surely someone here knows what the capital of Brazil is!" A voice at the back suggested Rio de Janeiro, which Pearson jubilantly seized upon by saying "Thankyou! At last! Yes, the capital city of Brazil is Rio de Janeiro. Here, come and collect your prize." At which point, quite literally the only member of the audience over the age of 18 who didn't know that Brasilia is the capital city of Brazil was deservedly rewarded for his ignorance with some free tickets. Naturally there were quite a few cries of "No it isn't!" and "You're wrong!", which Pearson was seemingly oblivious to. (And if only I had used the zoom function in the above photo, you'd have been able to see a look of utter disbelief on the face of one of the musicians behind him.)

Twenty minutes later, Pearson was back for more. "OK, as you're all so rubbish at geography and don't even know where Rio is, I'll try a different topic. Now don't call out this time, just put your hand up when you know the answer."

"Brasilia!" shouted a wag at the back.

More evidence that Labour is heading for defeat

Although YouGov have yet to match ICM by producing a poll showing the Tories level-pegging with Labour, the latest one does show Labour's lead down to a wafer-thin three points. More significantly, we're provided with a breakdown of where voters for the three main London parties in 2010 have gone to since. This offers a particularly useful insight into what type of people are currently in the UKIP column. Really the only surprise here is that there are no surprises at all -

15% of people who voted Conservative in 2010 now support UKIP.

6% of people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 now support UKIP.

4% of people who voted Labour in 2010 now support UKIP.

So the conventional wisdom is borne out by this poll - if we can assume that perhaps half of current UKIP supporters will drift back "home" to their previous party by the time of the general election (a reasonable assumption unless Farage is given a place in any TV leaders' debates that may take place), then Labour no longer have a lead in any meaningful sense.

Incidentally, there's no reason to imagine that switchers from Conservative to UKIP are so scunnered with their former party that they're more likely to go the whole hog and vote Labour rather than return to the Tory fold. This poll actually shows that the Conservatives have more 2010 Labour voters in their column at present than Labour have 2010 Tory voters. In spite of his relentless march to the right, Miliband seems to be utterly failing to appeal to former Tory supporters - his slim lead is an artificial product of the UKIP advance and the Lib Dem collapse.

* * *

Simply because I'm so impressed that someone actually sent me a personal tweet to promote their Edinburgh Fringe show, I may as well give it a quick plug. It looks quite intriguing - it's called The Confessions of Gordon Brown.

"Gordon Brown hilariously exposes the darkest secrets of being Prime Minister, the stab-in-the-back plotting, the betrayals and most importantly - the hair gel. Love him or loathe him, Gordon candidly reveals what it takes to knife your way to the top and rule a nation. And how his dream of power all went wrong. New play by acclaimed Scots Emmy-nominated writer and director Kevin Toolis in a manyrivers production."

This is something that happens nowhere else in the world

Spotted at the BBC's "live blog of the royal baby celebrations" (give me strength) -

"As a British expat living in East Germany and married to a Ukrainian I couldn't feel more proud and happy to be British right now!"

Yeah, 'cos we Brits can actually deliver a baby. Take that, East Germany and Ukraine!

Congratulations, Mrs Windsor, it's a head of state!

By a rough extrapolation, Kate Middleton's son was just one of the 5000 or so babies born yesterday in the sixteen Commonwealth Realms that share the same monarchy. For all our sakes, we'd better hope that, by some extraordinary coincidence, he just happens to be better suited to the role of Head of State than all of the rest of those 5000 (not to mention the countless millions that will be born on all the other days between now and his accession to the throne). But it does seem somewhat unlikely.

On the plus side, Gordon Brown can sleep a tad more easily tonight. Apparently one of the twenty-odd things that's been troubling him most about the prospect of independence is that the Scottish Parliament might "take a different view on the line of succession for the monarchy" (although why the Scottish Parliament would be any more likely to do that than the Australian, Jamaican or Barbadian parliaments is something of a mystery). Well, now that males are clearly first in line to the throne for the next three generations regardless of whether they are given constitutional precedence over females, that seems to be yet another of the No campaign's "terrifying" imagined futures that we can safely stop fretting about.

Go get 'em, Tiger! You da man! Get in the HOOOOOLE!

Yup, you've guessed it. Not content with my already impressive credentials as a woman-hater (well, if you believe Edinburgh Eye and Better Nation supremo James Mackenzie), I decided to burnish them still further yesterday by popping along to Muirfield for the first round of the Open. I've never experienced anything like that before (heat in Scotland, I mean) so it was all very exciting.

Not having previously been to a golf tournament, my main concern was that I would unwittingly do something stupid or wrong and find myself being bawled out in Monty-style by a player, caddie or marshal. That fear wasn't entirely unfounded, because I repeatedly thought I was ambling along, minding my own business, only to discover I was actually in the middle of a fairway or on the edge of a green. Most of the time it was impossible to tell who was the unfortunate target of the shrieks of indignation, although on the one occasion that I thought it might well be me, it was (to my eternal shame) a Scottish player I was potentially distracting. Fortunately, Martin Laird recovered his composure sufficiently to put together a below-par round, and I see that he has done well again today. It's probably too much to hope that he's a potential winner, but it's good to know that a Scot can at least still be competitive in majors. Reading his back-story, though, it's slightly sad to find that he's another example of a Scottish sportsman like Andy Murray who had to go abroad at a young age to achieve great things.

There's obviously some logic to the draconian rules that the marshals enforce, but it does lead to an unfortunate fixed setting of "aggressive official". Even the chap who "welcomed" us to the course started by screaming "WE WANT YOU TO ENJOY YOURSELVES TODAY", but thankfully refrained from adding "OR YOU WILL BE EXECUTED". I felt a bit sorry for a Spanish guy with very poor English, who misunderstood an instruction to put his camera away, and found himself being charged up to in nightclub bouncer style by a marshal, who menacingly whispered in his ear : "I appreciate it may be silent, but if you use that everyone else will follow your example, so it needs to go away now". Given the circumstances, I think "do you speak English?" might possibly have borne more fruit than the War and Peace edition of "why cameras are banned".

The only mention I heard of the male-only issue was on the train, when a young Scottish guy asked an Irish woman what she thought of it. "That's golf," she replied. Emboldened, the man complained that "nobody ever says anything about the all-women clubs". Well, yes, but that's probably because the all-women clubs were predominantly founded to compensate for the existence of all-male clubs. If that hadn't been the case, they certainly would be legitimate targets for criticism, just as the bizarre Women's Prize for Fiction is.

As a final thought, the woman added : "I watch women at my own club, most of them don't even know the etiquette, it's an embarrassment". Spurious anecdotal justifications for discriminating against an entire gender - don't you just love them? Typical bloody redhead.

ICM subsample : SNP retain lead in Westminster voting intention

More bad news for the No campaign has arrived in the shape of this month's GB-wide poll of Westminster voting intentions conducted by ICM, regarded by some (but not all) as Britain's most reliable pollster. First of all, the SNP retain a clear lead in the Scottish subsample, suggesting that last month's extraordinary figures were not a fluke -

SNP 40%
Labour 30%
Conservatives 18%
Greens 6%
Liberal Democrats 3%
UKIP 1%
Others 2%

Perhaps even more significant, though, is that the Tories have now drawn level with Labour across Britain as a whole. As we know, Scots are significantly more likely to favour independence if they think that the Tories are heading for victory at the next general election. And on these figures, at a point in mid-term when the main opposition party ought to have a significant lead, there can be very little doubt that the Tories are indeed strong favourites to remain in office after 2015 -

Conservatives 36% (+7)
Labour 36% (-)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+1)
UKIP 7% (-5)
Others 8% (-2)