Sunday, July 28, 2013

Yes campaign gains support in latest independence poll

The good news from the latest poll of referendum voting intentions conducted by Panelbase is that the Yes vote is up one point.  The bad news is that the No vote is also up by two points.  Essentially, then, this is a steady-as-she-goes poll, which shows the Yes campaign still firmly within striking distance.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 37% (+1)
No 46% (+2)

The poll was jointly commissioned by fundamentalist Brit Nat rag The Sunday Times, which notes through gritted teeth that Yes supporters show a greater inclination to turn out to vote, before reassuring itself that No is "maintaining a strong lead".  Really?  A nine-point lead with a full year-and-a-quarter to go is "strong"?  Prime Minister Kinnock might beg to differ...

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UPDATE : Not being a payer of the Murdoch levy, I've only just caught up with the Holyrood voting intention figures, which show the SNP building on their already humongous lead -

Constituency vote:

SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 30% (-)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-1)

Regional list vote:

SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 25% (-2)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Greens 6% (-)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-2)


  1. Iain Gray might feel a bit dubious about that lead too.

  2. And still you will hear about the declining, plummeting, dropping etc support for YES across all the msm and britnat bbc.

  3. These changes are well within the standard 3% margin of error, so basically so change in support for either side. However, it is interesting that the ST is commenting on likely turnout. I still think that turnout will decide this referendum, and hold to the view that it will be low overall but (as the ST poll suggests) that YES will have a differential advantage in getting its vote out on the day.

  4. Timothy (likes zebras)July 28, 2013 at 9:11 AM

    After the large swings we have seen in election/referendum campaigns in recent years - such as the AV referendum, and the last Holyrood elections - it would be foolish for anyone to think this was anything other than wide open for either side.

    I wonder if it is possible that a return to economic optimism will help the case for independence?

  5. Project Fear will have succeeded with one of their objectives if the turnout is low.

    Project Fear also appear to be more successful in getting their "message" over so far judging by the fact that the YES campaign's support has not moved much above its core vote %.

    George Kerevan may have got it right with his article in the Scotsman when he claimed YES or YES-leaning voters are dispirited by the direction of the YES campaign and have become downright de-motivated by what they see as a YES campaign that lacks passion or any sense that we want to create a new nation that is qualitatively different from the UK in which we live now.

  6. Timothy : Apologies, your comment seems to have been caught by the spam trap. I'll release it as soon as I get to my desktop.

    Alasdair : As you know, I take a different view. Turnout will be so huge that differential turnout will only swing the balance if the margin of victory is tiny.

  7. "Project Fear will have succeeded with one of their objectives if the turnout is low."

    Don't agree that PF is succeeding. Fact is that they haven't moved the polls at all. Apart from a short-lived uptick after the Olympics NO support hasn't increased at all. More important, PF fear hasn't firmed up the NO camp voting intention. It is all very well relying on the status quo inertia, but what is the point in having the support of those who are highly unlikely to vote.

    On the other hand Yes Scotland is very active in connecting with its support and (as ST poll suggests) is making sure that its support is motivated to vote. Remember also, that the Yes campaign has barely started to present its case (principally because the SNP have focused on devolved policy areas and are only now developing the policy detail for an independent state).

    The Nov white paper therefore will be crucial and can be, if prepared and presented properly, a prospectus for a new Scottish state. The quality of the ideas in this prospectus - its vision - will determine whether the Yes campaign takes off amongst the people of Scotland.

    That said, as things stand low turnout is a friend to the Yes campaign because it puts the onus on the the No campaign to motivate their support to go out and vote.

  8. James: I would like to think that turnout will be higher that my dismal expectations, but I don't yet see it happening. Perhaps the Nov white paper will mark the start of a full-on Yes campaign.

  9. James I put the following comment on Wos.

    So despite the best efforts of the BT, press and BBC the SNP is near an all time high. The poll is suggesting the strength of the Yes and No camps. The Yes people more motivated than the No side. The No side being a bit soft and can be picked off as the campaign goes on. I was a bit apprehensive this morning turning on the computer bit I need not have been so.

    Cameron, Clegg & Co must scratch their heads in bewilderment as to the Scottish Governments poll ratings. Quite easy there - govern for the whole nation not just the few.

  10. There are two trends that need to be highlighted.

    The steady increase in YES voters in poll after poll.

    The fact that less that half the population will come out and support the UK. Repeated in so many polls yet doesn't get mentioned enough.