Tuesday, July 16, 2013

ICM subsample : SNP retain lead in Westminster voting intention

More bad news for the No campaign has arrived in the shape of this month's GB-wide poll of Westminster voting intentions conducted by ICM, regarded by some (but not all) as Britain's most reliable pollster. First of all, the SNP retain a clear lead in the Scottish subsample, suggesting that last month's extraordinary figures were not a fluke -

SNP 40%
Labour 30%
Conservatives 18%
Greens 6%
Liberal Democrats 3%
Others 2%

Perhaps even more significant, though, is that the Tories have now drawn level with Labour across Britain as a whole. As we know, Scots are significantly more likely to favour independence if they think that the Tories are heading for victory at the next general election. And on these figures, at a point in mid-term when the main opposition party ought to have a significant lead, there can be very little doubt that the Tories are indeed strong favourites to remain in office after 2015 -

Conservatives 36% (+7)
Labour 36% (-)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+1)
UKIP 7% (-5)
Others 8% (-2)


  1. The results show why Labour are desperate to denigrate AS and the SNP. It seems they are damned with a YES vote and damned by a NO vote. In either case they will be kicked out of their sinecures at Westminster. Oh joy!
    Maybe this will cause them to soon have second thoughts about being part of the Bitter Mob.

  2. That's a good point - although Labour are institutionally wedded to the union, it's certainly possible that helplessness about their electoral position south of the border might drive a good number of individuals within the party to hurriedly reconsider their position on independence.

  3. Labour are finished in Scotland. The leadership seem hellbent on a scorched earth policy before they go.
    Anyone left in Johanns gang will go down with the ship.