Seven good reasons to vote for the Alba Party on the list ballot

1) Commitment to independence.  Of the three main pro-independence options at this election, there's not much doubt that Alba has the strongest commitment to the goal.  Some of the party's critics say "if you want to vote for a pro-indy alternative to the SNP on the list, you should vote for the Greens, because they at least have a track record of winning seats", but the Greens are quite open about the fact that a substantial minority of their members are anti-independence.  That means almost inevitably that some of their candidates in this election must be unionists - in fact I recall someone left a comment on this blog a few weeks ago expressing concern that one of the Green list candidates in the Lothian region was on the record as being a UK federalist.  Independence is also not necessarily a particularly high priority for the Green candidates who nominally support it. As for the SNP, I don't take the cynical view that they've become a devolutionist party - I do think the vast majority of SNP parliamentarians believe in independence, at least in principle.  However, it's now possible to identify a small number of SNP MPs at Westminster who appear to have a different agenda - they're not necessarily actively opposed to independence, but they're more than happy for it to remain on the backburner for twenty or thirty years while they get on with their exciting careers in London.

2) Urgency about independence.  A few years ago, the Glasgow SNP councillor Mhairi Hunter was asked what the Scottish Government would do if a Section 30 order was rejected, and she said "campaign some more for a Section 30 order".  What if it's refused again?  They would "campaign some more for a Section 30 order", apparently.  At no point would anyone say "enough is enough" and try a different tack - they would just keep going pointlessly round in circles into infinity.  Now, OK, Mike Russell's 11-point plan moved things forward a bit and raised the hope that the SNP might pursue a Plan B to at least a limited extent.  And if the SNP were the only credible pro-independence option available, the logical thing to do might be to take a leap of faith and assume they're serious this time about the action they've proposed, even though in the past they've failed to follow through on a number of occasions. But now the voters have their own Plan B in the shape of Alba - an insurance policy just in case the real intention is for Ian Blackford to boom "Scotland will not stand for this!" at PMQs every week for the next five years, and then to ask for yet another mandate for a referendum in 2026, and then another in 2031.

3) Breaking the SNP leadership's monopoly on strategic thinking.  Even if we get to a referendum, we need to win it, and there must at least be a question mark over whether that can happen on the safety-first, small 'c' conservative prospectus that the SNP currently seem to have up their sleeve.  An Alba group in the Scottish Parliament will be a breath of fresh air, bringing alternative strategic ideas to the table that are currently going unheard.

4) Experienced, serious and moderate leadership.  The reason why the increasingly desperate attempts to portray Alba as some kind of 'zoomer', 'extremist', or even 'far right' (!) group have failed to gain any traction whatsoever is that the party's leadership and candidates have a track record that cannot be matched by any of the other opposition parties.  In Alex Salmond they have the longest-serving First Minister of Scotland, in Kenny MacAskill they have the former Justice Secretary of Scotland (and the man who bravely released Megrahi on health grounds in the face of huge pressure from the Americans), in Chris McEleny they have the former leader of the SNP group on Inverclyde Council, in Jim Walker they have a world-renowned economist, in Caroline McAllister they have the former SNP women's convenor, and in Lynne Anderson they have the former SNP equalities convenor.

5) Better candidates.  Due to the SNP's controversial 'reserved places' scheme, the top place on the SNP list in each region is held by a very mixed bag of individuals, and in some cases their Alba counterparts are obviously superior.  The clearest example of all is in Lothian, where it's a no-brainer that Kenny MacAskill would be a better list MSP than Graham Campbell.  

6) There is no 'tactical' bar on voting Alba.  As long-term readers know, I'm not a fan of 'gaming the system' or of attempts to 'vote tactically on the list'.  But the irony is that the SNP's attempts to suppress the Alba vote actually amount to a call to vote tactically on the list - they're effectively saying "look at the opinion polls, they show that Alba votes might be wasted, so vote tactically for the SNP to ensure that doesn't happen".  The problem is, though, that even if there's a danger of your vote being wasted, it only makes sense to tactically vote against your first-choice party if the party you vote for instead can offer some kind of guarantee that your vote will not be wasted - and that plainly isn't the case with the SNP in most regions.  Of course it's possible that the SNP might nick a list seat in Central or in Glasgow, but is it certain?  Is it even likely?  Nope. It's six of one and half a dozen of the other - if you vote Alba, your vote may or may not be wasted, if you vote SNP, your vote may or may not be wasted, and if you vote Green, your vote may or may not be wasted.  That being the case, there's no particularly strong reason not to vote Alba if they're your first choice.

I know some will argue that the Greens in Lothian are an exception, and that they can offer a virtual guarantee of taking at least one list seat in that region.  But that just takes us back to the earlier problem, because the Green MSP in Lothian between 1999 and 2011 was the party's former co-leader Robin Harper, and he was/is viscerally opposed to independence!

7) Pressurise the SNP.  If you have reservations about a governing party's current direction (in this case excessive caution on pursuing independence and an obsession with identity politics), a respectable and time-honoured tactic is to pressurise them into changing course by voting for a smaller party.  If they want your vote back in future elections, they'll have to at least reflect on what made you and others like you feel strongly enough to look elsewhere.  I know the stock counter-argument to that is "you can't gamble with the pro-indy majority by casting a protest vote", but that doesn't really apply for the reason given above - in most cases, there's just as much risk that an SNP list vote will be wasted as an Alba list vote.

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I've had lots more constituency profiles in The National over the last few days - Moray, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, Strathkelvin and Bearsden, Clydebank and Milngavie, Galloway and West Dumfries, Dumfriesshire, Glasgow (regional list), West Scotland (regional list), Glasgow Cathcart and Glasgow Kelvin.

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You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).

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If you find Scot Goes Pop's coverage of polls helpful and would like it to continue, I'm currently running a fundraiser HERE.

Optimal Opinium poll shows a pro-independence majority - and is the SEVENTH poll in a row to show Yes on 50% or higher

I'd been thinking over the last few days that we were strangely light on polls given how dramatic the recent events have been, but today has made up for that - we already have our second poll of the day, this time from Opinium.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Opinium / Sky News)

Yes 51% (-)

No 49% (-)

So no change from the last Opinium poll - but across all firms, this is the seventh poll in a row to show Yes on 50% or higher, and the sixth out of seven to show an outright Yes lead of some description.  It's arguably no longer really accurate to say that "the polls are broadly showing it's 50-50".  There's a case to be made that the general picture is now of a Yes lead, albeit a very slim one. 

Scottish Parliament constituency vote: 

SNP 53% (+7) 

Conservatives 21% (-3) 

Labour 18% (-2) 

Liberal Democrats 6% (-) 

Scottish Parliament regional list vote: 

SNP 44% (+2) 

Conservatives 22% (-) 

Labour 17% (-2) 

Greens 7% (-) 

Liberal Democrats 5% (-) 

Alba 2% (+2)

There have now been five polls which offered Alba as an option, and that makes it possible to offer a slightly more confident estimate of the party's support as it seeks to establish itself.  The median Alba vote share is 3%, and the mean average is 3.4%.  As mentioned in the previous post, that's the sort of level of support at which the Greens and the SSP won one seat apiece in the 1999 election.  So if things stay the same, we're falling between two stools - Alba aren't doing quite well enough to win a significant number of seats or to even be sure of winning any seats at all, but they are doing well enough that it would be ludicrous to pretend that they aren't in serious contention to win seats (even though a great many people are attempting precisely that pretence).  

As I've said a few times now, if people are concerned about Alba votes being wasted and thus indirectly helping the unionist side, one logical way of resolving the problem is to campaign hard and spread the word and do everything we can to make sure that Alba have reached at least 5% by polling day.  That option may be a lot more realistic than lecturing the existing Alba supporters about how they have to set aside all their misgivings over GRA reform, or the Hate Crime Bill, or the lack of progress towards an independence referendum, and obediently toddle back to the SNP on the list.  It's hard enough for those people to vote SNP even on the constituency ballot, but they're doing that for the specific reason that Alba have recommended it as part of a two-pronged strategy for securing an independence parliament.

The extremely good news from this poll is that the SNP's constituency vote has shot right up, and if by any chance they can maintain that sort of popularity, the question of wasted votes on the list may not even matter.  But as we saw in 2016, it's phenomenally hard for any party to maintain 50%+ support in the heat of a campaign - it's like gravity will always pull them back.

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More details and analysis to follow.  You can also catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).

More signs of the Yes bounceback: support for independence is back up to 50% in new Savanta ComRes poll

The evidence continues to mount that there may have been a slight uptick in Yes support after the dip in the early part of the year.  The last poll in the regular Savanta ComRes series for the Scotsman showed a small No lead, but today's has Yes and No exactly level - regardless of whether Don't Knows are left in or stripped out.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 50% (+1)

No 50% (-1)

Incidentally, the last poll but one from the Scotsman series was the notorious #Matchettgate fake poll which purported to have Yes on 48% and No on 52%. That's the problem with pulling a stunt like that - all you succeed in doing is making the later polls look better for Yes.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 49% (+1)
Conservatives 23% (-)
Labour 18% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 40% (-)
Conservatives 21% (-3)
Labour 18% (-)
Greens 9% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Alba 3% (+3)

We've now had four Holyrood polls that included Alba as an option, and all four have shown the party registering on at least 3% - enough to put it in the mix for one or two seats as long as its support isn't spread too evenly across the country.  As I pointed out last night on Twitter, at the inaugural Scottish Parliament election in 1999, the Greens took one seat on 3.6% of the vote and the SSP took one seat on just 2% of the vote.  Official seats projections from polls will not show that sort of outcome for Alba because they will assume an even swing - but in practice an even swing is very unlikely to happen.

However, because the official seats projection for today's poll is showing Alba on zero seats and the SNP falling slightly short of a majority due to a lack of list seats, the argument is being made that Alba votes are wasted and that Alba supporters should return to the SNP on the list for tactical reasons.  That could be very misguided, because there's a core of Alba's support that is completely alienated from the SNP - those people are not going to go back, and if we want to make sure their votes aren't wasted, the more viable course of action could be to build on Alba's support and get it to the 5-6% needed to win a decent number of seats.

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More details and analysis to follow.  You can also catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).

Ipsos-Mori telephone survey is the FIFTH poll in a row to show a pro-independence majority

Is this the point at which we can stop mourning the loss of the unbroken sequence of Yes majorities which stretched from last June to this February?  Without wanting to tempt fate, we now appear to have a new little unbroken sequence - the latest in Ipsos-Mori's regular series of telephone polls for STV is the fifth poll in a row, across all firms, to show some kind of Yes lead.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 52% (-)

No 48% (-)

Of course another way of looking at it is that if Ipsos-Mori's methodology is right, Yes never actually lost the lead in the first place.  There was a dip in Yes support earlier in the year and the position has now stabilised - which would explain why the less Yes-friendly firms are flipping back and forth between tiny Yes leads and tiny No leads.

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:

SNP 53% (+1)

Conservatives 20% (-3)

Labour 18% (+3)

Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)

Greens 2% (-1)

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 38% (-9)

Conservatives 21% (-1)

Labour 18% (+4)

Greens 12% (+4)

Liberal Democrats 6% (-)

Alba 3% (+3)

That's arguably a pretty encouraging result for Alba.  The danger was always that online polls were overestimating them due to volunteer polling panels containing a disproportionate number of politically engaged people.  If that had been the case, you'd have expected Alba not to trouble the scorer in a telephone poll.  Instead they're registering on 3%. Obviously they'll need to come close to doubling that to win a decent number of seats, although even on 3% nationally they could pick up one or two seats if their vote is distributed unevenly across the country.  Incidentally, telephone polling does make all the difference as far as George Galloway's anti-independence party is concerned - they're languishing on less than 0.5% of the list vote and don't appear to be in contention for any seats at all.

This is a rare occasion when a poll shows the Greens on course for a significant breakthrough and I don't have to put a health warning on it - as far as I know there's no question mark over how Ipsos-Mori pose the list question.  However, it's only one poll, so caution should still be exercised.

More details and analysis to follow.  You can also catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).

VIDEO: Scot Goes Popcast interview with Alex Salmond

You've already heard it, and now you can watch it in glorious technicolor. Here is the video version of Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak with Alex Salmond, leader of the Alba Party and former First Minister of Scotland. If you have any trouble with the embedded player below, the direct link is HERE.

I've written quite a few constituency profiles for The National since I last mentioned them: Clydesdale, Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse, Mid-Fife & Glenrothes, Kirkcaldy, Highlands & Islands (regional list), Falkirk West, Falkirk East, Glasgow Anniesland and Glasgow Provan.  

Scot Goes Popcast with special guest Alex Salmond

Well, you can't say you haven't been getting top-class guests in the Scot Goes Popcast recently - Miss PunnyPennie in the last one, and today for the sixth episode I was joined by none other than the former First Minister of Scotland, former leader of the SNP, and current leader of the Alba Party, Alex Salmond.  He's been extremely generous in giving time to several new media outlets - I believe he was interviewed by quite a few bloggers today in the aftermath of Alba's campaign launch.  I'm not holding my breath about getting the same access to Willie Rennie.

Question I asked Alex include -

* On what basis was he excluded from the BBC leaders debate?

* Is there any contradiction between him asking people to give both votes to the SNP in 2011, but saying this year that SNP list votes are wasted?

* Will he undertake to support any initiative the SNP take towards delivering independence or an independence referendum, even if he doesn't think it goes far enough?  In other words, will he ensure that the perfect doesn't become the enemy of the good?

* Will there in future be internal democratic elections in Alba to choose candidates and the leader?

* Hasn't Alba's creation given controversial journalist David Leask the satisfaction of saying that his schtick about "the real SNP" and "alt-Nats" has been sort-of-proved right?

If you have any problem with the embedded player below, the direct link to the podcast is HERE.

James Kelly · Scot Goes Popcast Episode 6: Alex Salmond

You can also listen to earlier episodes of the Popcast - 

Episode 1: Yvonne Ridley

Episode 2: Tim Rideout

Episode 3: Denise Findlay

Episode 4: Ellen Höfer

Episode 5: Len Pennie (Miss PunnyPennie)

Yes Corner interview

In a few minutes (8pm) I'll be interviewed for Yes Corner on YouTube, with a viewers' question and answer feature.  If you happen to be around and fancy watching or taking part, I believe this is the link.

Alba ascendant: sensational new Panelbase poll shows Alex Salmond's party on course for SIX seats

I'd say a good rule of thumb is not to pronounce a new political party "dead on arrival" until at least the second poll.  It was never the case that Alba's 3% showing in the Survation poll a few days ago put it out of contention for seats, but tonight's Panelbase poll shows a radically different picture.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions (Panelbase / Sunday Times):

SNP 49% (+2)

Conservatives 22% (-1)

Labour 20% (-)

Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)

Greens 2% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:

SNP 39% (-3)

Conservatives 21% (-1)

Labour 17% (-2)

Greens 8% (+2)

Alba 6% (+6)

Liberal Democrats 5% (-2)

All for Unity 4% (+4)

Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 65 (+2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 8 (+2), Alba 6 (+6), Liberal Democrats 5 (-), All for Unity 1 (+1)

SNP: 65 seats

All others: 64 seats

SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 1 SEAT

Pro-independence parties: 79 seats (61.2%)

Anti-independence parties: 50 seats (38.8%)

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 29 SEATS

So many of the claims made over the last few days now look highly questionable.  It was said that there would be no pressure from the polls for the broadcasters to consider the case for Alba to included in the TV election debates - well, here we have a poll showing Alba ahead of the Liberal Democrats in terms of both votes and seats.  If Alex Salmond isn't going to be in the debates, what's Willie Rennie doing there?  It was said that Alba couldn't possibly contribute to a pro-independence supermajority, and that the Greens were the only game in town if voters wanted to achieve that outcome - well, here we have a poll showing both Alba and the Greens making a major contribution to a supermajority.

Are there any health warnings that need to be put on these numbers?  As Scottish Skier will doubtless point out, it seems that Panelbase took the unusual step of putting the words "led by Alex Salmond" in brackets next to Alba's name.  It could be argued that may have led to an overstatement of support, but the flipside of the coin is that there could have been an understatement of support if it hadn't been done, because voters may not be familiar with the Alba name yet - but hopefully will be by the time of the election.

Another possibility is that Alba may be enjoying a honeymoon spell following its launch, and that its support will fade before polling day.  It's also conceivable that the hysterical "it's all over for Salmond" reporting of the Survation poll may have put off potential Alba supporters and that the Panelbase poll hasn't picked that up because of its fieldwork dates.  So, yes, there are all sorts of reasons for being cautious - but the bottom line is that Alba are now in the mix, and for the time being the prospect of them gaining several seats needs to be taken very seriously.

My gut instinct is to be a bit sceptical about the finding that George Galloway will take a seat for All for Unity.  The assumption until now has been that all Galloway would do is take votes away from the serious unionist players without getting close to actually winning a seat - and to be honest that's still how I expect it to play out.  However, we can't have it both ways - if we're going to take Alba's numbers in the Panelbase poll seriously, we have to do the same for All for Unity's numbers.  So perhaps Alex Salmond and George Galloway will be sparring in Holyrood debates before too long - just like old times in the House of Commons.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Panelbase / Sunday Times)

Yes 51% (+1)

No 49% (-1)

So Yes are back in the lead with Panelbase, and across all firms this is also the fourth poll in a row to show a Yes lead of some description.  It's starting to look like there may been a small but genuine bounceback in Yes support after the dip in the early part of the year.  The poll apparently also shows that 54% of respondents want a second independence referendum to be held within the next five years (ie. within the term of the Holyrood parliament that's about to be elected).

NewsNot

It may be a surprise to you to learn that Newsnet Scotland still exists - the site had certainly fallen off my radar for a few years, presumably because it wasn't being updated.  However, it's back up and running, but in a very different form to before - which leaves little room for doubt that there's been a change of ownership, although they're very cagey about that when asked.  It's basically morphed into a tabloid-style attack dog, anti-Alba, anti-Salmond propaganda outfit, with quite a nasty streak - there was a tweet about Alex Salmond's supposed 'instability', for example.

Well beginning to look like he has even less appeal than Farage. Brexit party managed more than 3% in Scotland but still got thumped https://t.co/YaMfOCNfAT

— Newsnet.Scot (@NewsnetScotland) April 1, 2021

What the hell does this even mean? Does it mean the Brexit Party got more than 3% in Scotland in the Euro elections when it won one of the six seats under the PR system? If so, what point is being made here? Newsnet is turning into a parody of itself.https://t.co/lVrqFQXHsW

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) April 1, 2021

They did respond to my question, but only with the non-answers of "it means what it says James" and "aye whatever", which is not surprising because their claim was complete gibberish. The Brexit party fought two elections in Scotland - the 2019 Euro election and the 2019 general election.  In the former, they took well over 3% of the vote but most certainly were not "thumped" - they were in second place on 15% and won one of the six Scottish seats.  In the latter, they were indeed thumped - but took well under 3%.  So whichever way you look at it, the point simply doesn't make any logical sense and doesn't have any particular relevance to a poll showing Alba on 3%.

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As you may have spotted, I turned pre-moderation of comments on yesterday because I'd reached saturation point with the abuse, trolling and astroturfing.  In particular, there was a chap called Alexander who had started to repeatedly repost comments that had already been deleted - and when that happens, the situation has clearly spiralled out of all control and a spell of pre-moderation is the only answer.  The results were quite comical - one person assumed he'd been "blocked" when he discovered that his comment hadn't been auto-published, and had an almighty hissy fit about it.  To reiterate for the millionth time, it is not (unfortunately) possible to "block" or "ban" people on the Blogger platform.

It's not just Alba supporters who are having to deal with this nonsense, incidentally.  I spoke to Paul Kavanagh a few days ago (he's continuing to back the SNP on both ballots), and he's been receiving a tonne of abuse in the opposite direction.  It would help if we all just calmed down and got on with making the case for our own preferred pro-indy party.

As the ground rules for commenting the other day failed to make any impression at all, let's see if I can make things even simpler.  I am under no obligation to allow trolling, astroturfing or propagandising in the comments section.  If you post that sort of comment, it's entirely at my discretion whether it stays up.  The lazy reply is always "oh well if you're not going to allow any anti-Alba comments" or "oh well if you want to be an echo chamber", but people can see with their own eyes that a great many anti-Alba comments have stayed up.  If someone is camped on this blog for hours on end, reacting to every tiny piece of news with "this shows Alba are dead on arrival and that Alex Salmond is toxic", I'm entitled to conclude that what is going on is a little bit more than an interested individual trying to contribute to the debate.

Drama as Yes storms back into the lead in Survation poll

"Do I contradict myself?  Very well then I contradict myself.  I am large, I contain multitudes." - Walt Whitman

As I've pointed out many times in recent weeks, the headline numbers in independence polls are the ones with Don't Knows excluded.  On those, the new Survation poll shows Yes drawing level.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation / Courier)

Yes 50% (+1)

No 50% (-1)

However, the unionist media have shown that, when it suits them (ie. to claim there is a No lead), they'll dispense with those numbers and use the ones with Don't Knows included.  We might as well follow their example tonight, because in this poll there's a slight Yes lead - Yes 45% (+2), No 44% (-1).

These numbers have to be seen in the context of Survation being a relatively No-friendly pollster in recent times.  They showed figures like these (a two-point Yes lead) in the late autumn, at a time when other firms were reporting a huge pro-independence majority.  It would be interesting to see what a ComRes or Ipsos-Mori poll shows right now.

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You can catch up with Episode 5 of the Scot Goes Popcast, with special guest Len Pennie (Miss PunnyPennie) HERE.

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If you find Scot Goes Pop's coverage of polls helpful and would like it to continue, I'm currently running a fundraiser HERE.