To be clear, the bit about "most accurate pollster" is Stonehaven's own self-description, but I always put that in because it upsets our resident unionist troll KC.
It was Stonehaven who, a few months ago, first started the trend of MRP polls showing an SNP overall majority, and I must admit I was surprised that YouGov of all companies ended up following their example. Remember, however, that Stonehaven have stated that they factor tactical voting into their headline projections, and once again they've found that the SNP benefit more from tactical voting than any other party. That seems intuitively implausible, so if there's any health warning to be put on these numbers, that would be it.
Seats projection (Stonehaven MRP):
SNP 66
Reform UK 21
Greens 14
Labour 13
Liberal Democrats 8
Conservatives 7
SNP: 66 seats
ALL OTHER PARTIES: 63 seats
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 3 SEATS
PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 80 seats
ANTI-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES 49 seats
PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 31 SEATS
Like a lot of people, the first thing I do when I see one of these MRP projections is look at the individual constituency numbers to check if any them look obviously wrong. In this case there are a few that leap out...
Dumbarton is projected to be an SNP gain, with Reform in a distant second place. That seems unlikely - even if the SNP do take the seat, there will presumably still be enough tactical votes for Labour to keep them ahead of Reform at the very least.
Cunninghame South is projected to be a Reform UK gain. It's amazing how many MRP polls seem determined that there is going to be a Reform breakthrough in Ayrshire in particular, and while that's certainly possible, I can't see why Reform would take this specific seat and fail to take any other constituency in the country, which is what Stonehaven are saying.
Edinburgh Northern is projected to be a notional SNP hold, with the Greens in second place. It seems far more likely the race there will be between the SNP and the Liberal Democrats.
The SNP are projected to take all three seats in the southern Blue Wall, which is possible on a good day, although I certainly wouldn't bet the house on it happening.
Here are the national vote shares from the poll:
Constituency ballot:
SNP 37%
Reform UK 18%
Labour 17%
Greens 10%
Conservatives 9%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Regional list ballot:
SNP 33%
Reform UK 19%
Labour 16%
Greens 13%
Conservatives 9%
Liberal Democrats 8%
That's a wee bit odd. The constituency-level projections seem to take account of the fact that there will be no Green candidates in most constituencies, but clearly the national vote shares do not. So if we make a common sense adjustment based on where those Green constituency votes might really go, we could well be looking at an SNP vote in the low 40s at least.
* * *
My latest constituency profile for The National is the
Shetland Islands. That, as it happens, is the only one of the 73 constituencies that I've never actually set foot in myself. I've been to Na h-Eileanan an Iar once, because I spent a few days in Uist when I was 14, and I've been to Orkney three times, including as recently as two years ago. But I've never made it as far as Shetland. Hopefully one day.
Incidentally, I was shocked to see that the Lib Dems have apparently taken out a front-page attack ad in the Shetland Times, which attempts to monster the SNP candidate Hannah Mary Goodlad. Either they're severely rattled or they have money to burn.
* * *
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Canadian men are generally 12% older than women.
ReplyDeleteDepends on your age and if you are Canadian M/F/Other, or not
DeleteJames, for those us only look at polling near elections, is MRP producing more reliable results or is it the cool new feature that no one really needed? Is there actual value added or does this just let polling companies charge more for an interesting bit of maths?
ReplyDeleteSo bbc bring on a SUN journalist to say we are all scunnered about the election and how good the King is. I’m scunnered too over the biased news reporting on the bbc,stv and the Brit press and their minions.
ReplyDeleteYou are way too polite. I see I will have to translate. "So the BBC Brit Nat Media Whores introduce us to another Brit Nat Murdoch Press Whore on the eve of elections".
DeleteOn today's BBC news web-site home page (I don't have a telly), stories about a man saying "I bought a baseball cap to hide my kippah", and a very minor royal turning eleven, are given more prominence than the news, much farther down, that "Thirteen killed in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon".
DeleteI smell shite.
ReplyDeleteLike you say, those results seem highly implausible.
My feeling 1wk out is that the SNP are going to get 55-57 seats and the Greens 10-12. The 'poor' SNP result will be a result of many of the too close to call seats going to the pro-Unionist parties because many voters who previously voted for the SNP will stay at home. Unionist voters, especially Reform are more likely to turn out.
Rule Brittannia, Jacob. Keep the union jack waggling.
DeleteMy feeling is to wait and see the result.
DeleteJacob Rees-Mogg, I presume.
DeleteIt is like a bit of history repeating itself. It reminds me of the 2011 election when the late Angus MacLeod of the Times posted the results of an opinion poll on the Saturday evening before polling day that showed the SNP with a bit of momentum. Many didn't believe it then.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney will be keiching himself at the thought if a result like this, which is the last thing he wants. It would call his bluff about actually doing anything to achieve independence.
ReplyDeleteHi Stew, love the beard.
DeleteAnon at 1.32 pm ... it's either that or IfS has been released again.
DeleteYou need to keep up. Swinney has changed his approach. A majority of Indy supporting party seats will now be enough. It always should have been. It’s too little too late and the BBC and MSM already have their headlines written. Real shambles. What possessed Swinney we will never know. SNP will get somewhere between 59-62 constituency seats. Greens will get around 9 list seats. Enough for a comfortable Indy party majority, but according to official SNP policy it does not constitute a mandate to progress Indy. And that is the headline already written by the BBC and MSM.
DeleteCall your bluff 1.29pm. You will have to declare you are really a red white blue unionist at heart.
DeleteAnon @ 2.59pm, you say:
Delete"Enough for a comfortable Indy party majority ..."
In reality it's adequate for a comfortable Gender Ideology majority.
John Swinney will be keiching himself at the thought if a result like this, which is the last thing he wants. It would call his bluff about actually doing anything to achieve independence.
DeletePretty good reason to vote SNP x 2 then, right?
Stew's beard? What's her name?
DeleteAnon at 6.24. Grow up you cretin and get back to the daily heil.
DeleteAnonymous at 6:24 PM
DeleteWhat is a Gender Ideology majority (Trump-style capitalisations in the original)? Thank you.
Hen @ 9.26pm
DeleteAnon @ 6.24pm didn't use "TRUMP-STYLE CAPITILISATIONS IN THE ORIGINAL".
Actually punched the air when I seen this earlier. A majority means independence inevitable, IFS will be raging lol.
ReplyDeleteVery economical - if a touch unimaginative - to recycle an old posting from last week.
DeleteIt takes no account of the millions in Dirty Foreign Money funding the out and out Yoon Party's either. I cant believe the above result James. It would be a frikkin miracle the SNP getting a majority especially when MI6 Agent Sturgeon is still on the loose.
ReplyDeleteMy
Delete, my, the mysoginist I hate Sturgeon fixated individual is still about. Their stupidity revealed with every post.
Nicola Sturgeon doesn't know me. But I think about her. A lot.
Deletei have upset the Yoon Snowflakes I see.
DeleteHi IFSy. You’ve been very quiet. A period as an anon I see.
DeleteAnonymous @ 3.02
DeleteNobody knows who you are so nobody thinks you've upset anyone. 😡 But maybe in your world you're pivotal.
Why is it so implausible? We know the Greens are reliable tactical voters for the SNP in constituencies, while Reform has swept up the floating unionist voter, who cannot be described as tactical any longer, except perhaps in a tiny handful of constituencies.
ReplyDeleteI take all of these MRP polls with the proverbial 'pinch of salt'. Turnout will be the crucial factor in this election. I live in a constituency where if the SNP support can be bothered to get out and vote, it wins. Motivating them to get out to vote is the problem. In my opinion the Scottish working class voters are their own worst enemy.
ReplyDeleteYou might be able to motivate them if you could convince them that the SNP actually have a credible plan to restore Independence. Until then forget it.
DeleteDon’t need your help depressed at 619. Ex Albanist I presume?
DeleteThe “credible plan” is for independence to become the preference of the Scots. Most polling now records that as a fact.
DeleteJohnson, Truss, Starmer and Co are increasingly seen as untrustworthy outlanders.
The “credible plan to restore independence” is to have a majority of Scots who are in favour. Most polling shows that is now the situation.
DeleteJohnson, Truss, Starmer et al are now seen as nothing much to do with us.
Game over, though it may take a few years.
Remember the "rise" of the SNP during elections?
ReplyDeleteThe media, especially the BEEB, regularly dissed the election and claimed everyone was bored.
Its an old Brit Nat trick.
It's boring because nothing's going to change - everybody knows that Swinney is a fibber and is just trying to harvest enough votes to get the SNP back into power ... so that they can do nothing for yet another 5 years.
DeletePoor anon. So bored yet takes the time to write to the blog. How boting
DeleteYup, you’re “bored”, but remember, the longer a pro- independence party rules in Scotland, the more normal in becomes that we are not ruled by a London puppet party and the concept of independence is something just down the road and attainable.
DeleteI see Douglas "Head Boy" Alexander woke up the other day and said, "I'm going to make a total arse of myself today." And did.
ReplyDeleteYup, you’re “bored” but the Brit Nats and their media are increasingly irrelevant in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteAfter this election, if the polling is accurate, the main London parties will be looking for new puppets in Scotland.
Bye bye Anas, Russell and Alex. You won’t be missed.
When will the pro independence Labour supporters form their own party and leading rather than sitting on their hands being telt by London?
ReplyDeleteIFS is back hiding out amongst the anonymous.
ReplyDeleteSays the nutter at 1.19am hiding out among the anonymous.
Deletesays ifs at 238 hiding out as anonymous. Dont worry not long to go. All yir wee plans up in smoke
DeleteAs a (former) SNP voter for as long as I could vote, this will be the 2nd time I won't be.
ReplyDeleteTBH, I prefer to concentrate on earning a crust for me and mine, funnily enough, in Norway- the "little country that could". As for the other side of the North Sea, the "naw we canny's" will continue their navel-gazing and do hee-haw to attain one-inch of progress "down that road"!
So Taggart you voted for the unionists brits to prove you are an independence supporter. Aye right.
Delete