To be clear, the bit about "most accurate pollster" is Stonehaven's own self-description, but I always put that in because it upsets our resident unionist troll KC.
It was Stonehaven who, a few months ago, first started the trend of MRP polls showing an SNP overall majority, and I must admit I was surprised that YouGov of all companies ended up following their example. Remember, however, that Stonehaven have stated that they factor tactical voting into their headline projections, and once again they've found that the SNP benefit more from tactical voting than any other party. That seems intuitively implausible, so if there's any health warning to be put on these numbers, that would be it.
Seats projection (Stonehaven MRP):
SNP 66
Reform UK 21
Greens 14
Labour 13
Liberal Democrats 8
Conservatives 7
SNP: 66 seats
ALL OTHER PARTIES: 63 seats
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 3 SEATS
PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 80 seats
ANTI-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES 49 seats
PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 31 SEATS
More details and analysis to follow shortly...
Canadian men are generally 12% older than women.
ReplyDeleteJames, for those us only look at polling near elections, is MRP producing more reliable results or is it the cool new feature that no one really needed? Is there actual value added or does this just let polling companies charge more for an interesting bit of maths?
ReplyDeleteSo bbc bring on a SUN journalist to say we are all scunnered about the election and how good the King is. I’m scunnered too over the biased news reporting on the bbc,stv and the Brit press and their minions.
ReplyDeleteI smell shite.
ReplyDeleteLike you say, those results seem highly implausible.
My feeling 1wk out is that the SNP are going to get 55-57 seats and the Greens 10-12. The 'poor' SNP result will be a result of many of the too close to call seats going to the pro-Unionist parties because many voters who previously voted for the SNP will stay at home. Unionist voters, especially Reform are more likely to turn out.