More on the MRP poll: the 67-seat projection for the SNP may even be an underestimate due to the Greens being included in too many seats

Some more details of the Find Out Now MRP poll for The National have been published on the Electoral Calculus website.  Whoever wrote the article (presumably Martin Baxter) doesn't seem to be fully versed in devolved Scottish politics, because references are repeatedly made to the "official opposition" party in the Scottish Parliament, which is a concept that does not actually exist.  The leader of the largest opposition party is called first at FMQs, but apart from that there's no special status.

However, what matters is whether the numbers in the poll are accurate, and I've been looking through the individual seats projections with interest.  The first thing that leaps out is that there is a Green vote share given for every constituency, when in fact the Greens are only standing in a handful of constituency seats.  That might conceivably make a difference in two cases: in Caithness, Sutherland & Ross, the Lib Dems are projected to have a four-point lead over the SNP, and the Greens are on 4%, while in Edinburgh Southern, Labour are projected to be three points ahead of the SNP, with the Greens on 4%.  So if you take the numbers in the poll absolutely literally, the 67-seat projection for the SNP could even be a slight underestimate.

On the other hand, the SNP are projected to be just two points ahead of the Lib Dems in Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch, which in 2021 returned the largest SNP majority in the country, with the Lib Dems in third.  Now, of course that's not totally implausible, because the SNP will be losing any personal vote for Kate Forbes, and the Lib Dems surprised us all by winning the overlapping constituency of Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire in the 2024 UK general election.  But it does make me wonder about the assumptions baked into the poll's methodology.  It's almost as if the Westminster numbers are being used as a baseline.  I note, for example, that there's no sign of a Lib Dem breakthrough in the projection for Argyll & Bute, which is a similar constituency in many respects but not in one: there was no major Lib Dem recovery there in 2024.

The SNP are projected to hold on to the seats where the Greens are actually standing and are purported to have a decent chance.  However, the Greens are in either second place or joint second in Edinburgh Central, Glasgow Southside and Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill, and are a relatively modest 5-9 points behind the SNP in each.  Intuitively, that strikes me as a much more plausible estimate of the state of play than we've been seeing in certain quarters.

Reform UK's best showing is projected to be 24% in Banffshire & Buchan Coast, which is presumably based partly on that being the most pro-Brexit constituency.  More startling, however, is the 23% for Reform in both of the North Ayrshire seats (Cunninghame North and Cunninghame South).

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My latest constituency profile for The National is Glasgow Anniesland.

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