SNP 67
Labour 17
Greens 14
Reform UK 14
Conservatives 10
Liberal Democrats 7
I have a new article at The National discussing the track record of past MRP projections, which you can read HERE.
UPDATE: OK, thanks to Michael and Keith in the comments section, we now know which six constituencies are projected to elude the SNP. They are:
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross (LibDems)
Edinburgh North Western (LibDems)
Edinburgh Southern (Lab)
Fife North East (LibDems)
Orkney Islands (LibDems)
Shetland Islands (LibDems)
That means the SNP are projected to enjoy a whole string of eyebrow-raising wins elsewhere:
Dumbarton: I'm struggling with this one. It should be a Labour hold on the basis of the swing in national polls, and bearing in mind the track record of tactical voting in the constituency, it's hard to see how the SNP take it.
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire: An SNP gain is possible here, but it's like trying to thread a needle - the unionist vote would have to be divided almost perfectly. Unlikely in my view.
Dumfriesshire: A bit more plausible, but still a very tough one - the SNP are starting from ten points behind the Tories.
Galloway & West Dumfries: The most winnable of the three Blue Wall seats in the south, and the SNP have a past track record of success here, although on the basis of national trends they would still be expected to fall just short. But I can accept this one as a plausible SNP gain.
Banffshire & Buchan Coast: The SNP look vulnerable here to both the Tories and Reform, but it's by no means outlandish to think they'll hold on.
Aberdeenshire West: On paper this doesn't look promising for the SNP, but we keep hearing the Tory canvass results in the northeast are dreadful, so yes, this is a possible gain.
Inverness & Nairn: I don't think anybody really knows yet what the impact of Fergus Ewing's independent candidacy will be, so there's a big question mark on this one.
East Lothian: Looked like a lost cause not that long ago, but could now be very close.
Edinburgh Central, Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill and Glasgow Southside have all been touted as Green gains. As previously explained, those predictions are based on a smoke-and-mirrors statistical exercise and shouldn't be taken seriously, but with an effective Green campaign the SNP are not necessarily safe in any of the three, and they're also vulnerable to Labour in Edinburgh Central. Each of the three in isolation looks like a probable SNP hold, but is it really likely their luck will hold out in all three? Even if just one of the three were to go to Labour or the Greens, it would make winning an overall majority very tough.
So as you can see I'm still very sceptical about the prospects of a single-party overall majority, but believe me about one thing: I do want to believe.
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My latest constituency profiles for The National are Fife North East and Galloway & West Dumfries.
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From the article, these are the seats they're not projected to win:
ReplyDeleteCaithness, Sutherland and Ross (LibDems)
Edinburgh North Western (LibDems)
Edinburgh Southern (Lab)
Fife North East (LibDems)
Orkney Islands (LibDems)
Shetland Islands LibDems)
Thanks.
DeleteOther Lib Dem seats Caithness, Sutherland & Ross: Edinburgh North Western: Fife North East yet to see the Labour constituency seat
ReplyDeleteLabour constituency seat is Edinburgh Southern
ReplyDeleteThis is unreal. People are telling you what YOU wrote in the article and you're thanking them. That's as dodgy as fish!
ReplyDeleteNope. My article at The National was not about the poll itself, it was about the past track record of MRP polling. It was Xander Elliards who did the write-up of today's poll (in fact I think he wrote three articles about it).
Delete"The MRP [multi-level regression and post-stratification method] found 6% support for “other” on the Highlands and Islands regional list, which would be sufficient to return an MSP should those votes all coalesce around a single candidate. However, the “other” vote is likely to be split between a number of smaller parties and independents, so the final list seat was accordingly assigned to the LibDems. "
ReplyDeleteAcross Scotland the Find Out Now methodology gives a Ghostly Other vote of 4% in both constituency and list, whereas Norstat had a mere 1% of such in the constituencies v. 6% on list.